Quantitative and qualitative modelisation of catchment hydrology … · Hydrologie & Hydraulique...
Transcript of Quantitative and qualitative modelisation of catchment hydrology … · Hydrologie & Hydraulique...
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
Quantitative and qualitative modelisation of catchment hydrology and at field scale
with « EPICgrid » (~ similar possibilities as AVSWAT, plus Deep Vadose Zone model)
(Modélisation hydrologique quantitative et qualitative des parcelles agricoles et des bassins versants)
(Summary of UHAGx-FUSAGx project as part of « Programme PIRENE », Région Wallonne,
coordination CEME-Ulg, and other projects)---
Ir. C. Sohier & Prof. S. Dautrebande, Ir Dr ----------------
(UHAGx-FUSAGx)Hydrologie et Hydraulique Agricole(Hydrology and Rural Engineering)
Génie Rural et Environnemental(Rural and Environnemental Engineering)
Faculté Universitaire des Sciences Agronomiques de Gembloux – Belgium(University of Gembloux)
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
EPIC-Grid (FUSAGx ) is part of an Pirene global model for the Meuse and Escaut
« EPIC-Grid » catchment and soils sub-model• Physically based model, without calibration• Distributed model at catchment or regional scale • Also field scale :EPICmod (adapted EPIC (Williams, 1995) for the walloon regio in
Belgium))• Quantity and quality (diffuse agricultural and dispersed domestic pollutions)• Soil-water-plant-climate• Soil and Subsoil (vadose zone) : unsaturated soils, rapid and slow saturated
flows, until basic groundwater• Daily (or hourly ) : in Floods-integrated model MOHICAN (for Sethy-Met-RW))• 30-40 years of simulation• (~ similar to AVSWAT, plus Deep Vadose Zone model)Groundwater sub-model quantity and quality : GEOMAC Ulg (Prof.
Dassargues) and UMH (Prof. Rorive)Surface water sub-model quality : CEME-Ulg (Prof. Smitz) , Ulb (Prof.
Verbank); quantity : HACH-Ulg (Prof. Pirotton),CEME-Ulg (Prof. Smitz) Integration of «Catchment », «Soil», «Surface» and «Groundwater»
models : CEME-Ulg (Prof. Smitz)
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Transfers, lagsstocks, stock
variations
Exportations
Deep basic flow («very slow»)• Deep groundwatergeological zone
• Unsaturated and Variable saturated geological zone
• Soils & root zone
Slow hypodermic flow
Fast hypodermic flow
Overland flow(« very fast »)
Transfer ofDirect Runoff
River flow, transfers, lags
stocks, stock variations
Transfers, lags, stocks, stock
variations
Transfers, lags, stocks, stock
variations
• Land Use
• Surface water
HACH (Ulg) (surface water quantity) , ULB and CEME (Ulg) (surface water quality),
GEOMAC (Ulg) et Hydrogéologie (FPMs) (deep groundwater) UHAGx (FUSAGx) (soils, subsoils & catchment )
PIRENE : Catchment Integrated Modelisation (quantity-quality)
CEME (Ulg) (integration)
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
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Geology
Soils
GRId : 1 km²
Land use, crops growth,agricultural practices
Rivernetwork
RivernetworkFUSAGx EPIC-Grid
catchment, soil and vadose zone
modelisationTopography
In each grid : ponderation
of the different components
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
A. Hydric fluxes in EPIC-Grid (FUSAGx)
River
Each grid 1 km²Precipitations
Evaporation
Snow Transpiration
Percolation
Deep recharge
Lateral groundwater
Direct runoff(Surface and rapid lateralhypodermic flow)
Infiltration
Deep groundwater
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
EPIC-Grid Parameters (notably)
•Soils et Sub-Soils parameters :• Effective porosity• Field capacity• Saturated hydraulic horizontal KH
and vertical KV conductivities• …
No calibration,Except for ~ KV’s / KH’s
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
•
• EPIC-Grid Parameters for the vegetation (notably)• + than 40 crops, forest, grassland : partially adapted from EPIC (USA) data base, for the walloon regio
• Crop growth • height, LAI, yield, …• Agricultural practices• Fertilisations and pesticides•…
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
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Measured ( mm / d )
EPIc-grid Simulation + transfer ( mm / d )
Direct runoff component
Lateral flows component
Basic groundwater component
A.1. Validations (example) :• a) Catchment river flows
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Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
• b) EPIC-Grid daily (or for hourly) flows simulation
EPIC-GRID : Observed and EPIC-GRID simulated daily discharges - 1995Lesse catchment at Daverdisse (302 sq. km)
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Dis
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Observed discharges
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HA-FUSAG
y = 1.06xR2 = 0.95
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Daily dischargesBissecting lineLinear regression
HA-FUSAGx
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
• c) Annual hydrological balances
•Annual runoff coefficients : EPIC-Grid : simulated versus measuredy = 1.02 x
R2 = 0.94
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Coefficients d'écoulement observés
Coe
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Coefficients d'écoulement
Bissectrice des axes
Régression linéaire
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Coefficients d'écoulement simulés
Coe
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Coefficients d'écoulement
Bissectrice des axes
Régression linéaire
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Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
A.2. Validations (example) : Soil moisture
Clayed-loamy soil (Famenne)
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D a te
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H um id i té vo lum iq ueo b s e rvé e (s t. 4 .1 )
H um id i té vo lum iq ues im ulé e p a r le m o d è leE P IC
Loamy soil – wheat (Hesbaye)
Simulation ( ) and measurements ( . )
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
A.3. Validations (example) : Crop growth
Height of wheat
EPICmod : Simulation ( ) and measurements ( . )
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mèt
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" CHT "
Hteur moy
Hteur max
Hteur min
HMX = 0.9DLAP1 = 15.010DLAP2 = 55.80
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
A.4. Validation (example) : Soil TemperatuurEPICmod : Simulation ( ) and measurements ( )
Températures mensuelles du profil de sol (mesures et simulations sur sol nu à 10, 20 et 50 cm) moyennées de 1985 à 1989
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UHAGx - FUSAGx
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
B. « Quality » fluxes EPIC -Grid
• Nitrates Cycle • Organic matter Cycle• Pesticides Cycle• Sediment yield (catchment's scale) • Agricultural diffuse erosion (field scale)• …
Evaporation Snow
PrecipitationTranspiration
Percolation
Deep recharge
Lateral flow
Direct runoffInfiltration
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
EPIC-Grid « Quality » Parameters
(No calibration)
• For soil and sub-soil
• Degradation, adsorption-desorption (pesticides)
• « Mobile-immobile » water (nitrates and pesticides)
•…
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B.1. Validations : in root zone soil
Project SSTC - 2001 (FUSAgx-CRAGx)
EXEMPLE : N-NO3 Evolution in soils
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0 – 60 cm
(Validation)
(Validation)
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Nitra
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EPICmod Simulation ( ) and Measurement ( )
Project SSTC - 2001 (FUSAgx-CRAGx)
EXEMPLE : N-NO3 Evolution in soils
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(Validation)
(Validation)
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EPICmod Simulation ( ) and Measurement ( )
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
B.2. Validation : in subsoil, deep recharge (Programme-Action-Hesbaye: financement EU-RW-Aquawal,
(Étude CRAGx-Ulg (Prof. Monjoie) -FUSAGx))
EPICmaille Simulation of Deep Nitrates leaching near groundwater;Measurements near surface deep groudwater
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
B.3. Validation : Subsoil solution
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epth
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Concentration moyenne mesurée (Bovenistier, 98)courbe enveloppe des concentrations (min et max) mesurées 400 kg d'azote minéral appliqué pour les cultures maraîchères500 kg d'azote minéral appliqué pour les cultures maraîchères600 kg d'azote minéral appliqué pour les cultures maraîchères
Unité d'Hydraulique Agricole Forage à Bovenistier (Waremme) Mars 1998FUSAG Hesbaye
Project BOVENISTIER (collabor. With Prof. Monjoie Ulg) and CRAGx:Effect of agricultural practices on vegetable crops (field scale)Scenario Epic- maille :
if non vegetables crops
15 m
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MeasurementsCRAgx (mean
and variability)
Effect of nitrates fertilisation on vegetables, 4 to 8 years before
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
C. Results of simulations
(Examples)
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
River Station Area Precipitation
(mm)
Simulatedactual
Evapotrans-ration --mm (mm)
Simulated Lateral
groundwater
SimulatedDeep
Groundwater recharge
Différence (%Precipitation) Simulations & measurements
Amblève Martinrive 1068 km² 1102.96 554.86 264.99 84.73 0.50 0.47 6
Berwinne Moelingen 129 km² 913.59 561.82 30.72 180.59 0.38 0.34 12
Bocq Yvoir 227 km² 912.70 528.01 137.39 108.54 0.43 0.34 26
Geer Kanne 465 km² 802.04 538.61 11.74 215.64 0.34 0.18 85
Hermetton Hastière 166 km² 875.88 543.42 149.34 58.63 0.39 0.37 5
Houille Felenne 114 km² 1146.70 574.71 245.81 142.41 0.50 0.51 -2
Hoyoux Modave 94 km² 925.04 542.50 112.42 135.73 0.42 0.31 33
Lesse Daverdisse 302 km² 1150.08 552.97 321.91 110.63 0.52 0.50 4
Lesse Gendron 1284 km² 1012.13 546.74 246.31 60.10 0.46 0.43 8
Mehaigne Moha 341 km² 768.73 539.10 29.34 168.31 0.31 0.25 23
Molignée Warnant 125 km² 890.99 526.14 132.51 91.61 0.41 0.40 4
Ourthe Mabompré 319 km² 1016.19 541.99 228.73 100.21 0.47 0.46 2
Ourthe Nisramont 738 km² 1028.05 548.06 249.22 86.34 0.47 0.50 -6
Ourthe Tabreux 1615 km² 992.06 538.69 224.46 68.36 0.46 0.43 6
Ourthe Sauheid 2910 km² 1024.09 542.45 232.06 74.66 0.47 0.47 0
Semois Membre 1230 km² 1230.75 552.75 326.66 109.61 0.55 0.56 -2
Vesdre Chaudfontaine 680 km² 1065.70 576.74 186.41 104.07 0.47 0.43 8
Viroin Treigne 554 km² 1002.64 563.61 200.78 97.59 0.44 0.46 -3
Catchment with water exportations (pumping, …)Differences < 4%
Differences < 10 %
Total river flow/ Precipitation
Simulation Measurements
Main type of groundwater
(mm)
Reminder : without calibration, except KV/KH
C.1. Simulated Hydrological balances of the Meuse sub-catchment’s
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
Unité d’Hydrologie et Hydraulique Agricole
Région wallonne - NO3 (mg/l) Concentration -Moy 1998-2000
Agricole diffus Agricole diffus
+domestic contribution NO3 (1)
Simulation EPICgridIn Rapid and slow
Hypodermical flows(local measurements)
Groundwater measurementsare or in deep or in hypodermic
Conc. NO3 (mg/l)
Unité d’Hydrologie et Hydraulique AgricoleUnité d’Hydrologie et Hydraulique Agricole
Région wallonne - NO3 (mg/l) Concentration -Moy 1998-2000
Diffuse agricultural NO3
+ domestic contribution NO3 (1)
Simulation EPICgrid
Conc. NO3 (mg/l)
C.2. Nitrates leaching simulations in vadose zone
RW Groundwater Atlas Diffuse agricultural NO3
Near Deep groundwater(Deep Groundwater recharge)
(1) Hypothesis : If 30% of houses are without collector
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
C.3. Eau d’Heure Catchment to Silenrieux :NO3 Concentration (mg/l) of leaching - Moy. 1998-2000
EPICgrid Simulationgroundwater recharge :
(diffuse agricultural only)
Atlas DGRNE-RWLocal in groundwater
Measurements(all sources of contamination)
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
Atlas DGRNE-RWLocal in groundwater
measurements(all sources of contamination)
EPICgrid SimulationVadose zone near deep groundwater
(Deep Groundwater recharge)
C.4. Atrazine Simulations(diffuse agricultural only)
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
C.5. Atrazine Simulations( for diffuse agricultural)
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Atrazine Concentration (µg/l)
Direct runoff
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
C.6. Sediment yield (agricultural production)
fonction of …
• precipitation• overland flow • soil type • slope • lenght of slope • land use
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
C.6. a) Soil Erodibility (from Bollinne, 1971)
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
C.6. b) Sediment yield (T/ha.year)
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
D. Other developments or applications
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
Application : Cartography of the diffuse runoff risk
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
Application :Monthly Distribution of the actual Evapotranspiration (ETR)
(watershed scale)
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ETR GeerETR Ourthe
Simulation EPIC-GRID - 1994
Vegetation growth
ETP (climate)
Geer watershed
Ourthe watershed
Effects of :
Soil moisture
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
Application :Assessment of effects of climatic changes
Annual flows production simulated by EPIC-GRID (example for one catchment)
-3 à +3%
-10 à -7% -3 à +8%
-26 à -19%
-34 à -19%
}0 à +3% 0 à +8%
-6 à +5%
}-5 à +3% +1 à +11%
-24 à -9%
}
CGCM1 ECHAM4 HadCM2
-20 à -8 %
Actual evapotranspirationQuantitative Low variations for all scenarios, but variations in seasonal distributions Lateral flowsImportant annual decrease (up to 26%) (except for CGCM1 scenario)Groundwater rechargeImportant annual decrease (up to 34%) (except for CGCM1 scenario)
The recharge and content of groundwater and surface water reservoirs decrease with possible problems of human and animals drinking
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
Application : Assessment of effects of climatic changes
Monthly flows production and hydrological balances , as simulated by EPIC-GRID (example)
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Lateral flows* Increase for some winter months with possible increase of river flows * Decrease for summer months. This decrease coupled with lower
groundwater recharge will induce lower flows in the river with possible problems for river population, aquaculture, ...
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
Application Simulations on 30 years ; mean and variability of Nitrates quantity in 1,5 m soil tickness and leaching concentrations at 1,5 m depth; wheat in rotations with other crops
Rotation BFE
Rotation BFPF , wheat,after potatoes
y = 0.99x + 22.88R2 = 0.76
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0 20 40 60 80 100 120teneur en azote (kgN-NO3/ha) sur le profil de sol 0 -1.5 m, 5 jours après récolte
du froment (20/8)
conc
entra
tion
annu
elle
en
nitra
te d
es e
aux
de
less
ivag
e (m
gNO
3/l)
à 1.
2 m
, du
20/8
au
19/8
après froment (BFE)
droite de régressionfroment (BFE)
teneur
concentra tion
B F E
y = 1.03x + 56.52R2 = 0.56 y = 1.07x + 30.19
R2 = 0.82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
teneur en azote (kgN-NO3/ha) sur le profil de sol 0 -1.5 m, 5 jours après récolte du froment (20/8)
conc
entra
tion
annu
elle
en
nitra
te d
es e
aux
de
less
ivag
e (m
gNO
3/l)
à 1.
2 m
, du
20/8
au
19/8
froment après betterave, précédent pdt (BFPF)
droite de régression froment
après betterave (BFPF)
teneur
concentration
teneur
concentration
B F FP
Rotation BFE , Wheat
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
0%25%
50%75%
100%
- 0 N
- 30 N
- 60 N
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
NO
3 C
once
ntra
tion
in le
achi
ng a
t dep
th
1.5
m
(mg
NO
3/l)
% green interculture
Reduction of subsequent crop
NO3 leaching
Application : Green interculture Scénarios – Hesbaye in RW –Mean on 30 years (Same climate as 1971-2000)
Study for RW and GIREA-UCl
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
Application :Real time prevision of floods
« DECIDE-flood Belgium »-Project (ESA-EU and Sethy-MET-RW financering), with Matra (Fr)
VIGILANCE PHASE (Prevention) PRE-ALERT & ALERT PHASES (Emergency)
Real timeEPIC-GRID
Model
Hydro-MeteoData
Daily Simulation
SAR PRI Image
Soil Moisture
Validation
Soil Moisture(+Potential runoff parameter
+Soil temperature) HYDROMAXModel
Initi
alis
atio
n
Hydrological/HydraulicModel
Hydro-MeteoData
RTFlood Map Forecast
RT RiverFlow Forecast
HYDROMAXModel
Hydrological/HydraulicModel Flood Assessment
Map
ASSESSMENT PHASE
Validation
VulnerabilityMap
PotentialDamage Assessment
Map
SAR PRI Image
RAMSESIm. Server
RA
MSE
SIm
. Ser
ver
VulnerabilityMap
RT PotentialDamage Map Forecast
Accurate DEMGIS Data
GIS Data
Hydrologie & Hydraulique AgricoleGénie Rural & Environnemental
ESA-DECIDE-Flood in Belgium
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1/01
/00
8/01
/00
15/0
1/00
22/0
1/00
29/0
1/00
5/02
/00
12/0
2/00
19/0
2/00
26/0
2/00
4/03
/00
11/0
3/00
18/0
3/00
25/0
3/00
1/04
/00
8/04
/00
15/0
4/00
22/0
4/00
29/0
4/00
6/05
/00
13/0
5/00
20/0
5/00
27/0
5/00
Rai
nfal
l - S
oil M
oist
. - T
emp.
0102030405060708090100
Pote
ntia
l Run
off P
aram
eter
SAR Soil Moisture Track151 (%Vol. - 10cm)SAR Soil Moisture Track380 (%Vol. - 10cm)Average Rainfall (mm)Soil Moisture (%Vol. - 10cm)Soil Temperature (°C - 10cm)Potential Runoff Parameter (CN) ]EPIC-grid simulations
]Radar satellite
Application : Validation » of radar satellite catchment soil moisture by EPIC-grid simulations