QE Forever

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Weekly Economic CommentarySeptember 17, 2012

John Canally, CFAEconomist LPL Financial

QE Forever

HighlightsWe’ve had QE1, QE2, and Operation Twist, but last week the Fed announced QE Forever (or what we call open-ended QE).

QE will create jobs indirectly, as we should likely see a weaker dollar, lower corporate borrowing costs, and more housing construction.

The Fed is probably looking for sustained job creation in the 150,000 to 250,000 per month range before it considers discontinuing QE.

Please see the LPL Financial Research Weekly Calendar on page 3

The Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a third round of quantitative easing (QE) last Thursday (September 13), meeting market participants’ expectations. However, the Fed also went a few steps further. First, the Fed tied the amount of purchases to the health of the labor market (without specifically defining what constitutes a healthy labor market) and said it will continue to make purchases even after the economy has begun to improve. The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) focus on the labor market will elevate the already market-moving labor market indicators to a new level of importance.

This is the Fed’s third foray into QE — the purchase of fixed income securities in the open market — since late 2008. Please see text box on page 5 for a discussion of quantitative easing.

What’s Different This Time?

Comparing the two prior rounds of QE and “Operation Twist” with the latest round of QE, there are at least two key differences. First, there is no set end date for the latest round of QE. The FOMC will simply continue purchasing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the open market until “the outlook for the labor market improves substantially,” specifically tying, for the first time, the health of the labor market to the pace and size of FOMC purchases of MBS. Second, although the FOMC did indicate how much MBS it would purchase each month, it did not indicate an overall size of the program: QE1 totaled $1.725 trillion (including Treasury and agency bonds), and QE2 totaled $600 billion. When Operation Twist is completed, the FOMC will have purchased $667 billion on longer dated Treasuries and sold a similar amount of shorter dated Treasuries.

The open-ended nature of this latest round of QE (aka “QE Forever”) is intended to send the message to market participants, households, and businesses (small and large) that the FOMC will continue to pursue this policy until it works — or until Congress tells the Fed to stop. The mandate for the Fed to make these purchases comes from Congress via the Federal Reserve Reform Act of 1977, and the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978, which provides the Fed with its dual mandate “to promote full employment and keep inflation low.”

Heading into the September 13, 2012 meeting of the policymaking arm of the Federal Reserve (Fed), the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC), market participants were expecting the FOMC to extend its promise to keep rates low through mid-2015, and to unveil another round of unsterilized, open-ended purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the open market totaling around $40 billion per month.

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WEEKLY ECONOMIC COMMENTARY

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 09/17/12

Shaded areas indicate recession.

11 1209 10080705040302 06

All Employees: Construction, Seasonally Adjusted, Millions

8.0

7.5

7.0

6.5

6.0

5.5

5.0

2 Construction Jobs Are a Primary Objective of Open-Ended QE

1 Lower Borrowing Costs Have Saved Corporations Billions in Interest Payments

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Analytics 09/17/12

Shaded areas indicate recession.

11 1209 10080705040302 06

375

300

225

150

75

0

Corporate Business: Net Interest & Miscellaneous Payments on AssetsSeasonally Adjusted Annual Return, $ Billions

How Will QE Help the Labor Market?

About 17,000 employees work for the Federal Reserve System. Other than directly hiring or firing workers at the board and at the 12 regional Fed district banks, the Fed cannot directly create jobs. However, FOMC policymakers believe another round of QE will help to create jobs, although indirectly. Examples of this indirect job creation would be via a weaker dollar, lower corporate borrowing costs, and more housing construction.

QE is likely to put further downward pressure on the US dollar. A weaker dollar, in turn, makes our exports more competitive (on price) in the global marketplace, which should act to boost demand for our exports, all else equal. As we noted in the Weekly Economic Commentaries of September 10, 2012 and August 20, 2012 the United States has a trade surplus in many parts of the service sector. Job creation in three areas is running at a faster pace than elsewhere in the economy.

The combination of promising to keep rates lower until mid-2015, and the likely push out the risk spectrum by large pools of institutional assets, will help to lower corporate borrowing costs. Lower rates for longer might also allow corporations to borrow more cheaply or to refinance existing debt at lower rates. In addition, the low rates on cash for the next three years is likely to push large pools of institutional money sitting on balance sheets of corporations, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and endowment funds further out the risk spectrum, and perhaps into to the corporate bond market to find more yield. That push out into riskier assets should help to continue to push corporate borrowing costs lower. As noted in Figure 1, in 2008, corporations paid out nearly $400 billion in interest payments on their debt. By the early part of this year, those payments were running at well under $200 billion per year. With all that extra cash, corporations could:

� Hire more employees,

� Invest in new plants and equipment,

� Buy back shares,

� Initiate or increase dividends, or

� Make acquisitions.

A more direct beneficiary of another round of QE would be the mortgage market, and eventually the housing market. At the peak in 2006 and 2007, there were nearly 8 million construction jobs in the United States, and another 200,000 to 250,000 construction jobs that went unfilled as the nation faced a shortage of skilled construction workers. Housing starts in this period ran at around 2 million new units per year, and gains in construction employment averaged around 20,000 to 25,000 per month. Today, there are around 5.5 million construction jobs, and less than 100,000 open jobs in the construction industry [Figure 2]. New housing starts are running at about 600,000 to 700,000 units per year, about one-third the pace seen during the mid-2000s housing boom. Over the past six months, construction employment has shrunk by an average of 8,000 per month. While we don’t expect a return to the mid-2000s-like pace of construction



2012

17 Sep � Empire State Mfg. Index (Sep) � India: Central Bank Meeting

18 Sep � Homebuilder Sentiment Index (Sep) Lacker*

Dudley*

Evans

� China: Housing Prices (Jul)

19 Sep � Existing Home Sales (Aug) � Housing Starts (Aug)

Fisher

George

� Japan: Central Bank Meeting

20 Sep � Initial Claims (9/15) � Leading Indicators (Aug) � Flow of Funds (Q2) � Markit PMI (Sep) � Philadelphia Fed Mfg. Index (Sep)

Bullard

Pianalto*

Rosengren

Kocherlakota

Lockhart*

� China: HSBC PMI (Sep) � Spain: Bond Auction � France: Bond Auction � EU-China Summit � Taiwan: Central Bank Meeting � South Africa: Central Bank Meeting

21 Sep Lockhart* � Spain’s Rajoy Meet’s Italy’s Monti

Fed Global Notables

LPL Financial Research Weekly Calendar

U.S. Data

Hawks: Fed officials who favor the low inflation side of the Fed’s dual mandate of low inflation and full employment

Doves: Fed officials who favor the full employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate

* Voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is a survey done by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies. It collects data from employers including retailers, manufacturers and different offices each month. Respondents to the survey answer quantitative and qualitative questions about their businesses' employment, job openings, recruitment, hires and separations. The JOLTS data is published monthly and by region and industry.

China CPI: In total there are about 600 "national items" used for calculating the all-China CPI. The list of items is revised annually for representativeness based on purchases reported in the household surveys. The number of items can change from year to year, but rarely by more than 10 in any given year.

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

activity or construction-related hiring anytime soon, construction jobs would be the most likely to directly benefit from another round of QE, and if QE is working, the economy should start to see some sustained improvement in construction employment in the coming months.

What To Watch for, and When the Fed Might Stop

The FOMC statement tied this round of QE to “substantial” improvement in the labor market. Earlier this summer, Fed Chairman Bernanke said the Fed was looking for sustained and substantial improvement in the labor market. At the press conference following the FOMC meeting on September 13, 2012, Bernanke was asked several times and in several different ways about what the FOMC would be watching in the labor market as it pursues open-ended QE. In response to one of the questions on this topic, Bernanke said, “Well again, we're looking for ongoing sustained improvement in the labor market. There's not a specific number we have in mind. But what we've seen in the last six months isn't it.”



For the record, over the past six months, the economy has created around 100,000 jobs per month. Bernanke and the Fed are probably looking for sustained job creation at least in the 150,000 to 200,000 per month range if not higher, as in “normal” times (2003 – 2006) the labor force increased by 150,000 per month.

When asked about what specific labor market metrics the FOMC would monitor, Bernanke noted that the FOMC would look at “a range of indicators, not just the unemployment rate.” He specifically mentioned the following indicators:

� Payrolls,

� Participation rate,

� Hours worked,

� Unemployment rate, and

� Part-time employment.

Figure 3 describes how each of these indicators has performed over the past six months.

Bernanke on Savers

The Fed has to make monetary policy with the entire economy in mind, weighing the farm economy in Illinois or Iowa against a textile mill in South Carolina or a high-tech start-up in California. Similarly, Fed policy must be made with the broad scope of participants in the overall economy in mind, from small business owners to large financial institutions, and from retirees who save a lot to heavy-spending households with school-aged children. While we agree that the Fed’s low rate policy is hurting savers, the Fed’s view is that there are very few households whose only asset (financial or non-financial) is an interest-bearing savings account.

When asked about the impact of low rates on savers, Bernanke noted last week that:

� “….. my colleagues and I are very much aware that holders of interest-bearing assets, such as certificates of deposit, are receiving very low returns.”

� “But low interest rates also support the value of many other assets that Americans own, such as homes and businesses, large and small.”

� “Indeed, in general, healthy investment returns cannot be sustained in a weak economy, and of course it is difficult to save for retirement or other goals without the income from a job.”

� “Thus, while low interest rates do impose some costs, Americans will ultimately benefit most from the healthy and growing economy that low interest rates help promote.”

Data from the Fed (and other sources) backs up Bernanke’s statements.

Bernanke and the Fed are probably looking for sustained job creation

at least in the 150,000 to 200,000 per month range if not higher, as in

“normal” times (2003 – 2006) the labor force increased by 150,000 per month.

3 Recent Performance of Labor Market Indicators

MetricPast Six Months

Average Monthly Change In Nonfarm Payrolls — Private Sector

+113,000

Average Monthly Participation Rate (Labor Force Divided by Population Over 16 Years of Age

63.7%

Average Monthly Gain in Index of Hours Worked 0.0%

Change in Unemployment Rate -0.2%

Average Monthly Change in Part-Time Employment +30,000

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 09/17/12



LPL Financial Research 2012 Forecasts

GDP 2%*

Federal Funds Rate 0%^

Private Payrolls +200K/mo.†

Please see our 2012 Outlook for more details on LPL Financial Research forecasts.

The latest Survey of Consumer Finances by the Fed found that in 2010, 52% of families earned more than they spent, and therefore “saved.” Interest or dividends accounted for less than 4% of families’ net worth in 2010. Looking at financial assets only, 50% of families had retirement accounts, 21% had insurance policies, 15% held stocks directly, and 20% of families held some type of “managed assets” like mutual funds, trusts, investment royalties or lease assets. On balance, 50% of families in 2010 had either direct or indirect holdings of equities.

On the non-financial side, 87% of families owned a vehicle, nearly 70% owned at least one home, 20% owned some other type of real estate and 14% had a stake in a business venture.

A quick check of the Fed’s Flow of Funds data finds that only about 11% of household assets (financial and non-financial) are interest earning deposits (checking accounts, CDs, money market mutual funds) with another 6% of assets in credit market instruments like Treasury notes and bonds, corporate bonds, municipal securities, etc. Although the interest income generated from these types of securities would likely be lower as the FOMC embarks on open-ended QE, the value of these assets would be likely to rise. But setting that impact aside, and a very broad definition of “savings,” reveals that only 17% of household assets are in interest-bearing accounts, and that means that 83% (equities, car, house, etc.) are not. The Fed’s aim via open-ended QE is to push the value of the 83% of assets on household balance sheets that are not interest-bearing. �

Recent History of Quantitative Easing

The first round, QE1, was launched in November 2008 and focused on mortgage-backed securities (MBS). QE1 was expanded in March 2009. The Fed purchased a total of $1.25 trillion in MBS by the end of March 2010 as part of QE1.

QE2, first hinted at by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in August 2010, and formally announced in November 2010, focused on the Treasury market, as the Fed promised to purchase $600 billion on longer dated Treasuries by the middle of 2011, and to continue to reinvest the proceeds of the maturing MBS it already held back into the market.

Operation Twist, which Fed Chairman Bernanke hinted at in August 2011, was officially announced in September 2011. Unlike QE1 and QE2, Operation Twist did not expand the Fed’s balance sheet, but similar to QE1 and QE2, Twist did have an expiration date and a target size. Operation Twist saw the Fed sell some of its shorter dated Treasuries and use the proceeds to purchase longer dated Treasuries to “put downward pressure on longer term interest rates and help make broader financial conditions more accommodative.” This round of Operation Twist promised to buy $400 billion of longer dated Treasuries (using the proceeds from the sale of shorter dated Treasuries) by June 2012.

In June of 2012, the FOMC announced that it was extending the original Operation Twist through the end of December 2012.


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Not FDIC/NCUA Insured | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | May Lose Value | Not Guaranteed by any Government Agency | Not a Bank/Credit Union Deposit

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial.

To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor, please note that LPL Financial is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance reference is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

* Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period, though GDP is usually calculated on an annual basis. It includes all of private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports less imports that occur within a defined territory.

^ Federal Funds Rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions actively trade balances held at the Federal Reserve, called federal funds, with each other, usually overnight, on an uncollateralized basis.

† Private Sector – the total nonfarm payroll accounts for approximately 80% of the workers who produce the entire gross domestic product of the United States. The nonfarm payroll statistic is reported monthly, on the first Friday of the month, and is used to assist government policy makers and economists determine the current state of the economy and predict future levels of economic activity. It doesn’t include: - general government employees - private household employees - employees of nonprofit organizations that provide assistance to individuals - farm employees

The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.

International investing involves special risks, such as currency fluctuation and political instability, and may not be suitable for all investors.

Quantitative Easing is a government monetary policy occasionally used to increase the money supply by buying government securities or other securities from the market. Quantitative easing increases the money supply by flooding financial institutions with capital in an effort to promote increased lending and liquidity.

Investing involves risk including the risk of loss.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a committee within the Federal Reserve System, is charged under the United States law with overseeing the nation’s open market operations (i.e., the Fed’s buying and selling of United States Treasure securities).

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Jeffrey Kleintop, CFAChief Market Strategist LPL Financial

L P L F IN A NCI A L RESE A RCH

Weekly Market CommentarySeptember 17, 2012

“Get to Work, Mr. Senator”

HighlightsLast week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) put the ball back in Congress’ court as it relates to the economy and the upcoming fiscal cliff.

The so-called “lame duck” session that takes place between the November 6 elections and January 1 holds some promise for getting a deal done.

While the road travelled depends upon the elections’ outcome, it may be the journey — not the destination — on the way to the deal to mitigate the fiscal cliff that has the most potential to upset the markets and contribute to volatility in the coming months.

“Get to work, Mr. Chairman,” said Senator Chuck Schumer, wagging his finger at Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Ben Bernanke two months ago. Last week, Bernanke delivered and pointed back as if to say: “Get to work, Mr. Senator.”

Last week’s announcement of another program of bond-buying by the Fed, known as quantitative easing (QE), delivered a boost to the markets, sending stocks sharply higher on Thursday as the Fed’s statement was released. With this action, the Fed put the ball back in Congress’ court. The Fed’s QE program may help mitigate some of the risks to the economy, but if we go over the fiscal cliff it is like getting a flu shot before storming the beach at Normandy.

Congress must address the more than $500 billion in tax increases and spending cuts equivalent to 3.5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) due to go into effect on January 1, often referred to as the fiscal cliff. The United States has never seen an economic drag of anywhere near that magnitude that did not quickly result in a recession and big drop for stocks.

Despite Bernanke’s shifting of the economic burden back to Congress, there is almost no chance that the tax and spending issues get resolved before the elections. However, the so-called “lame duck” session that takes place between the November 6 elections and January 1 holds some promise for getting a deal done.

White House Senate House Odds of Outcome Odds of Deal

Status Quo D D R High >50%

Congress Unlocked D R R High >50%

GOP Sweep R R R Moderate ≈0%

White House Flip R D R Low <50%

Dem Sweep D D D Low <50%

Other

D R D ≈0% ?

R R D ≈0% ?

R D D ≈0% ?

Source: LPL Financial 09/17/12

Paths to a “Lame Duck” Deal

WEEKLY MARKE T COMMENTARY

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Status Quo (Obama wins, Dem Senate, GOP House)

Polls, including LPL Financial Research’s The“Wall Street” Election Poll, increasingly point to this as a high probability outcome of the elections. (Please see our recent The “Wall Street” Election Poll publication [09/13/12] for a description of our poll and

methodology.) Although there would be no change in control, holding the White House and the Senate during adverse economic conditions could be considered a victory for the Democrats, and to top it off the GOP’s majority in the House likely shrinks. A deal to mitigate the fiscal cliff would probably be reached in the lame duck session under this scenario, but it would likely be closer to the Democrat’s terms given their election victory, and primarily consist of higher tax rates.

Congress Unlocked (Obama wins, GOP Congress)

Although the battle for the Senate is looking closer than before, this is the scenario we believed was most likely all year. Congress goes from being gridlocked to unlocked as the GOP takes the Senate, but by a very slim margin, and retains control of the House.

Obama wins a narrow victory in the White House, but Republicans pick up the Senate and hold the House. A deal in the lame duck session is likely in this scenario where the Bush tax cuts get extended.

GOP Sweep (Romney wins, GOP takes Senate and holds House)

A big win for Republicans. Under this scenario, Republicans will be unlikely to compromise with Senate Democrats on only extending some of the Bush tax cuts in a lame duck session. In addition, it is unlikely that President Obama would sign

an extension of the Bush tax cuts as his last official act. With no deal in the lame duck session, the Bush tax cuts would expire at the end of the year. Republicans would try to renew them after President Romney takes office on January 20, but they will need 60 votes in the Senate to do it quickly, requiring the support of more than a handful of Democrats. As a result, Republicans may not be able to pass an extension of the Bush tax cuts for several months until they first pass a budget resolution that would allow them to pass a tax bill through reconciliation requiring only 51 votes in the Senate.

White House Flip (Romney wins, Dem Senate, GOP House)

If Romney wins the White House, it is likely the GOP would ride his coattails in the Senate, but possible that they only pick up one or two seats, leaving the Democrats in control. Under this scenario, Romney wins a narrow victory, and the Senate remains

White House DSenate DHouse ROdds of Outcome High

Odds of “Lame Duck” Deal >50%

White House DSenate RHouse ROdds of Outcome High

Odds of “Lame Duck” Deal >50%

White House RSenate RHouse ROdds of Outcome Moderate

Odds of “Lame Duck” Deal ≈0%

White House RSenate DHouse ROdds of Outcome Low

Odds of “Lame Duck” Deal <50%


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closely divided in favor of the Democrats. A deal in the lame duck session to temporarily extend the Bush tax cuts is possible, but not probable.

Democrat Sweep (Obama wins, Dems hold the Senate and take the House)

This would be a huge win scenario for Democrats, given the large majority held by the GOP in the House. In the lame duck session, House Republicans may compromise on extending the Bush tax cuts only for those who make less than $250,000, or they refuse

to compromise and go down fighting. In the scenario, the top dividend rate would likely go to 43% weighing on dividend-paying stocks, and bonds could be hurt by the potential for a downgrade to U.S. debt (the rating agency Moody’s Investor Service warned of this last week) due to the unwillingness of Democrats to cut entitlement programs, given that they would likely owe their win in the House to a backlash to the Ryan budget plan.

There are three other possible election outcomes, but there is almost no chance of the Democrats taking the House if Romney wins, or of the Democrats taking the House while the GOP wins the Senate if Obama wins. It would be difficult at best to say what the lame duck session would yield in these odd scenarios.

Therefore, there is a meaningful risk for the markets that Congress fails to craft a deal in the lame duck session and the U.S. goes over the fiscal cliff into recession. However, it is worth keeping in mind that Washington has a lot of experience in kicking the can down the road to avoid short-term pain and will likely find an eventual compromise. Instead, the real risk to the markets is what Congress may do in the lame duck session (or early next year) on the way to the compromise. We only have to look at the negotiations around the debt ceiling increase in August of 2011 to see how bad the process of negotiations can be for the markets. Back then we ultimately got the increase in the debt ceiling, but not without a 13% stock market decline in a week and the loss of the United States’ AAA credit rating by Standard & Poor’s rating agency.

The economic impact of the many scheduled tax increases and spending cuts is likely to prompt action, as will the fact that we will again hit the debt ceiling in early 2013 and require legislative action to approve an increase. Also, further pushing things along, the rating agencies have warned that they will be watching U.S. actions to return to a path of fiscal sustainability. And, finally, the president and a newly elected Congress will have maximum political capital to make it all happen in early 2013.

While the road travelled depends upon the elections’ outcome, it may be the journey — not the destination — on the way to the deal to mitigate the fiscal cliff that has the most potential to upset the markets and contribute to volatility in the coming months. We ultimately believe a deal will be forthcoming, but only after the elections can we expect Washington to get to work. n

White House DSenate DHouse DOdds of Outcome Low

Odds of “Lame Duck” Deal <50%

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RES 3880 0912Tracking #1-101091 (Exp. 09/13)

Not FDIC/NCUA Insured | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | May Lose Value | Not Guaranteed by any Government Agency | Not a Bank/Credit Union Deposit

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial.

To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor, please note that LPL Financial is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.


IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance reference is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

Standard & Poor’s Credit Rating: A credit rating is Standard & Poor’s opinion on the general creditworthiness of an obligor, or the creditworthiness of an obligor with respect to a particular debt security or other financial obligation. Over the years credit ratings have achieved wide investor acceptance as convenient tools for differentiating credit quality.

An obligation rated ‘AAA’ has the highest rating assigned by Standard & Poor’s. The obligor’s capacity to meet its financial commitment on the obligation is extremely strong.

Quantitative Easing is a government monetary policy occasionally used to increase the money supply by buying government securities or other securities from the market. Quantitative easing increases the money supply by flooding financial institutions with capital in an effort to promote increased lending and liquidity.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values and yields will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

Dividend paying stock payments are not guaranteed. The amount of a dividend payment, if any, can vary over time and issuers may reduce dividends paid on securities in the event of a recession or adverse event affecting a specific industry or issuer.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period, though GDP is usually calculated on an annual basis. It includes all of private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports less imports that occur within a defined territory.

QE Forever

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