Q4 & Full Year 2016 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Financial Summary 7 Financials (1)...
Transcript of Q4 & Full Year 2016 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Financial Summary 7 Financials (1)...
Q4 & Full Year 2016Earnings PresentationFebruary 3, 2017
Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information
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Notices
• All financial references are expressed in US$ unless otherwise noted.
• This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.
• Actual company results could differ materially from a conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information.
• Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.
• Additional information can be found in the Company’s annual information form, annual and quarterly MD&A, and on Norbord’s website (www.norbord.com) about the material factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information, and the material factors or assumptions that were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.
• During the course of this presentation, certain non-IFRS financial information will be presented. Definitions and reconciliation of terms can be found in the Company’s annual and quarterly MD&A.
2016 Financial and Operational Highlights
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Highlights
• Adjusted earnings of $2.03 per diluted share, a $2.20 improvement over 2015
• Adjusted EBITDA of $383 million, a more than threefold increase over 2015
• North Central benchmark OSB price averaged $269 per Msf, up 29% over 2015
• Record annual production at seven mills
• North American operating mills produced at 94% of capacity, up from 88% in 2015
• Merger synergies target of $45 million (cumulative, annualized) fully captured within 18 months of closing
• Exchanged Quebec mills with Louisiana-Pacific, swapping Val-d’Or for Chambord
• Commenced Inverness, Scotland OSB mill modernization and expansion; on-track for start-up in second half of 2017
• Dual-listed Norbord shares on New York Stock Exchange; ticker symbol changed to “OSB”
US Housing Starts
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Business Drivers
Source: US Department of Commerce, except where otherwise noted
2016 data: housing starts up 4.9% and single family starts up 9.3% YoY
(in millions)
(1) Based on US housing economist forecasts.
(1)
North American Benchmark OSB Prices
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Business Drivers
Spread SE vs NC 21 11 19 45 22 22 24
Spread WC vs NC 38 35 22 36 49 40 35
Source: Random Lengths
European Indicative OSB Prices(1)
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Business Drivers
€/m
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(1) European indicative average OSB price represents the gross delivered price to the largest continental market.
Financial Summary
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Financials
(1) Represents Canadian combined federal and provincial statutory rate.(2) Basic and diluted Adjusted earnings (loss) per share are the same except diluted Adjusted earnings per share for Q3 2016 is $0.67 and is $2.03 for 2016.
(US $ millions, except per share information)
Q4 Q3 Q4 2016 2016 2015 2016 2015
Sales $ 482 $ 453 $ 415 $ 1,766 $ 1,509Adjusted EBITDANorth America 108 106 51 352 95
Europe 10 10 10 41 38Unallocated (4) (2) (4) (10) (11)
Total 114 114 57 383 122
Earnings (loss) $ 61 $ 55 $ 13 $ 183 $ (56)Adjusted for:
Gain on asset exchange (16) - - (16) -
Merger transaction costs - - - - 8Costs to achieve merger synergies 1 4 3 8 7
Costs related to High Level fire - - - 1 -Costs on early debt extinguishment - - - - 25Revaluation loss on Ainsworth Notes - - - - 24
Reported income tax expense (recovery) 29 19 6 61 (27)Adjusted pre-tax earnings (loss) 75 78 22 237 (19)
Income tax (expense) recovery at statutory rate(1) (20) (20) (6) (62) 5
Adjusted earnings (loss) 55 58 16 175 (14)
Adjusted EPS, basic(2) 0.64 0.68 0.19 2.04 (0.17)
Adjusted EBITDA Variance
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Financials
(US $ millions)
Q4 2016 Q4 2016 2016vs. vs. vs.
Q3 2016 Q4 2015 2015
Adjusted EBITDA – current period $ 114 $ 114 $ 383
Adjusted EBITDA – comparative period 114 57 122
Variance - 57 261
Mill nets(1) 1 53 219
Volume(2) 17 17 33
Key input prices(3) 1 2 21
Key input usage(3) (4) 1 11
Mill profit share and bonus (1) (4) (10)
Other operating costs and foreign exchange(4) (14) (12) (13)
Total $ - $ 57 $ 261
(1) The mill nets variance represents the estimated impact of change in realized pricing across all products. Mill nets are calculated as sales (net of outbound freight costs) divided by shipment volume.
(2) The volume variance represents the impact of shipment volume changes across all products.(3) The key inputs include wood fibre, resin, wax and energy.(4) The other operating costs and foreign exchange category covers all remaining variances including labour and benefits, and maintenance.
Liquidity and Capital Resources
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Financials
(US $ millions, except per share information)
2017Target 2016 2015
Cash provided by operating activities $ 313 $ 24
Cash provided by operating activities per share 3.66 0.28
Operating working capital 118 125
Investment in property, plant and equipment & intangible assets (excluding Inverness Project)
90(1) 74 70
Investment in Inverness Project 102 33 -
(1) A further $30 million will be required to complete the necessary refurbishment work at Huguley, Alabama once a decision is made to restart the mill.
Balance Sheet
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Financials
(US $ millions, unless otherwise noted)
BankCovenant
Dec 31,
2016
Sep 24,
2016
Dec 31,
2015
Long-term debt, principal value $ 755 $ 755 $ 755
Add: Other long-term debt(1) - - 30
Less: Cash (161) (74) (9)
Net debt 594 681 776
Less: Other long-term debt(1) - - (30)
Add: Letters of credit 25 24 5
Net debt for financial covenant purposes 619 705 751
Tangible net worth Min. $500(2) 905 848 724
Net debt to capitalization, book basis Max. 65% 41% 45% 51%
Liquidity of $506 million = $161 million in cash + $220 million in unused credit lines+ $125 million undrawn A/R securitization
(1) Drawings under A/R securitization program (carved out of net debt for financial covenant purposes).
(2) TNW reset to $500 million from $450 million when bank lines renewed in June 2016.
Appendices
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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
An
nu
al A
vera
ge N
C P
rice
US$
per
Msf
7/1
6"
OSB Prices Strong Over the Cycle
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Appendices
Historical North Central Benchmark OSB Price
Source: Random Lengths
15-year average
Q1 163 175 423 364 285 145 137 154 212 198 203 417 219 193 226
Q2 159 215 443 297 238 156 179 146 295 173 235 347 219 193 264
Q3 159 381 351 303 181 177 201 178 180 184 313 252 216 204 301
Q4 156 401 264 317 166 165 170 172 191 190 332 245 216 242 285
Average 159 293 369 320 217 161 172 163 219 186 271 315 218 209 269
Norbord does not provide guidance regarding its expectations of future OSB prices. The following is a sample of price forecasts by analysts as at February 2, 2017. It is not exhaustive.
Forecast OSB Pricing – North Central 7/16”
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Appendices
Annual Average North Central
Benchmark OSB Price US$ per Msf 7/16”
Analyst 2017F 2018F
Vertical Research Partners 300 340
Raymond James 300 310
RBC Capital Markets 300 300
TD Securities 290 275
BMO Capital Markets 286 275
CIBC World Markets 280 260
Scotiabank 276 278
Average $290 $291
North American Capacity Restarts Needed to Meet Growing Demand
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Appendices
37 Mills in Operation
7 Mills Indefinitely Curtailed
North American OSB Installed Capacity:
Norbord Mill
7 Mills (Re)started in 2012/13
Note: Excludes OSB siding capacity.
Source: APA, company documents and other public filings
(in Bsf-3/8”) 2012 2016
Production 16.2 21.2
Restarts/Idled 4.4 3.1
=27% =15%
Financial Sensitivities
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Appendices
Exposure Change
Adjusted EBITDA Impact (1)
(US$ millions)
North American OSB $10 per Msf-7/16” + $59
European OSB €10 per 000 m3 + $8
Canadian dollar (2) $0.01 per C$ + $3
Pound sterling £0.01 per € < $1
(1) Assumes operation at full stated capacity levels (including the indefinitely curtailed Huguley, Alabama and Chambord, Quebec mills).Direct exposures only; before the impact of any cash flow currency hedges.Approximate operating loss carry-forwards for tax purposes (gross) as at Dec. 31, 2016 – US $132 million, Canada C$186 million, Belgium €32 million.
(2) Operating exposures only (excludes dividends on common shares).