q4 2012 lOGISTIC PROPERTY REPORT · q4 2012 lOGISTIC PROPERTY REPORT research • The total supply...
8
q4 2012 lOGISTIC PROPERTY REPORT research • The total supply of warehouses for rent in Q4 2012 was 2,907,907 sq.m., an increase from the last quarter by 5.86% and 21.95% Y-o-Y. • The occupancy rate in the warehouse rental market was 93.13%, a drop from the last quarter by 0.31%, due to an increase in supply. highlight
Transcript of q4 2012 lOGISTIC PROPERTY REPORT · q4 2012 lOGISTIC PROPERTY REPORT research • The total supply...
q4 2012lOGISTIC PROPERTYREPORT
research
• ThetotalsupplyofwarehousesforrentinQ42012was2,907,907sq.m.,anincreasefromthelastquarterby5.86%and21.95%Y-o-Y.
• Theoccupancyrateinthewarehouserentalmarketwas93.13%,adropfromthelastquarterby0.31%,duetoanincreaseinsupply.
highlight
2
Q4 2012lOGISTIC PROPERTYREPORT
Macro economic Overview
TheThaiexportsituationhasimprovedgraduallysincethefloodsoflate2011.DuringQ32012,thetotalexportvaluewas1,880billionbaht.Thevalueofexportsandimportshasbeenontheincreasesincethefloods,andthefiguresseemtoindicatethattheeconomyisontracktowardsrecovery.
Thereareofcoursemanyimportantoutsidefactorsthatcouldhaveadetrimentaleffectonthisoutcome,includingaprolongedorworseningEurozonecrisis,andsetbacksintheUSorChineseeconomies.
Source:BankofThailand
Figure1
Thailand Exports - Imports
TodaytheEuropeanandAmericandebtcrisesareamajorconcerntotheglobaleconomy,lead-ingtheThaigovernmentandprivatesectorstoreducetheirinvestment,consumptionandspend-ing.TheNationalEconomicandSocialDevelopmentBoard(NESDB)reducedtheexportgrowthtargetforthewholeof2012tobeonly5-6%,butrecentannouncementshaveevencalledthoseestimatesintoquestion.
ABangkokPostarticleon27/12/2012quotesSriratRastapana,Director-generaloftheInterna-tionalTradePromotionDepartment,assayingthatthegovernmentstillhopesexportswillendtheyearwith4.17%growth,despiteshipmentsthroughNovemberincreasingbyjust2.32%,andexpressedconfidencethatnextyear’sgrowthwouldexceed5%because“factorieshavenowre-turnedtofullcapacityafterlastyear’sfloodcrisisandonimprovingglobaldemand.”Thearticlealsowentontosaythat“theCommerceMinistryhassetanexportgrowthtargetfornextyearof8-9%to$250billion.”
Asgoodsmaketheirjourneyfromthefactorytotheconsumer,warehousesareneededwhereverthatflowisbroken.Forexample,wheregoodschangetheirmodeoftransportation,say,fromtrucktoseaortoair.Soascountriesinvestininfrastructureandcreatenewtraderoutes,wecanexpecttoseede-mandforintegrated-logisticsspaceincreaseatstrategictransporthubssuchasLaemChabangPort.
www.KnightFrank.com
3
Source:PortAuthorityofThailand
Remark:TEU-Twenty-footequivalentunitcontainer
AccordingtotheAmericanAssociationofPortAuthorities,inyear2010LaemChabangwasranked22ndasthebusiestcontainerportintheworld,andLaemChabangporttrafficisstillgrowingasexportsincrease.Todayitaccountsformorethan80%oftrafficofThailand’stotaloverseastrade.
InQ32012,theLaemChabangportcontainertransitvolumewasmeasuredbythePortAuthorityofThailandasbeing1,535,541TwentyFootEquivalentUnits(TEUs),with797,104TEUsoutboundand738,437TEUsinbound.Thetotalcontainertransitvolumeincreasedfromthepreviousquarterby7.87%.
Figure2
Laem Chabang Port Container Passed Through
Figure3
Bangkok Port Container Passed Through
Source:PortAuthorityofThailand
Remark:TEU-Twenty-footequivalentunitcontainer
4
Q4 2012lOGISTIC PROPERTYREPORT
market Overview
TheBangkokportcontainertrafficvolumewasespeciallylowduringQ42011atjust255,854TEUs,asthesupply-chainwasinterruptedbysevereflooding.However,trafficintheportin-creasedthroughout2012.ByQ32012,thetotalcontainertrafficmovingthroughKlongtoeywas359,635TEUs;thetotaloutboundvolumewas146,894TEUs,anincreasefromthepreviousquar-terof11.28%,andupby28.44%Y-o-Y.However,whilstthisrecoveryisencouraging,theoveralltrendisstillsomewhatdownwardasmoreandmorefreightgetsshippedviaLaemChabang.
Figure4
Warehouse Rental Market
Source:KnightFrankThailandResearch
Aninfluxofnewsupplyhascausedaverageoccupancyratestofall,yetthemarkethasbeenquicktoabsorbnewsupplyinrecentquarters.Weexpectthisnewsupplytocontinuetobetakenupquicklyasdemandforwarehousingspacegrows.
Figure5
Net Absorption
Source:KnightFrankThailandResearch
www.KnightFrank.com
5
Averageoccupancyratesofthewarehouserentalmarketdroppedfromthelastquarterby0.31%to93.13%,duetonewdevelopmentcompletions.However,inQ42012,thetotalamountofspaceoccupiedincreasedby141,462sq.m.,indicatingpositivenetabsorptionamidstrobustdemandforwarehousingspace,particularlyinSamutPrakarnandalongtheEasternSeaboard.
supply
Warehouse Rental Market Bangkok Rama 2 -
Samut SakhonPathum Thani
- AyutthayaSuvarnabhumi -
BangpakongEastern Seaboard
Occupancy 95.10% 92.34% 94.63% 93.04% 84.62%
Table1
ThetotalsupplyofwarehousespaceforrentinQ42012was2,907,907sq.m.,whichincreasedfromthelastquarterby5.86%or21.95%Y-o-Yasanadditional160,988sq.m.ofnewsupplyenteredthemarket.
Figure6
Distribution of Warehouse Space by Location
Source:KnightFrankThailandResearch
Source:KnightFrankThailandResearch
SamutPrakarncurrentlyhousesthemajorityofThailand’swarehousingsupply.ItslocationjustoutsideofBangkokallowsconvenientaccesstoseveralindustrialestates.Also,itissituatedbe-tweentwomajorseaports,andishometotheinternationalairport.Despitetheconcentrationofsupplyinthisprovince,wesuspectthattheEasternSeaboardwillseethemostnewsupplyoverthecomingfewyears,asnewlogisticsparksinRayongandChonburipickupsteam.
6
Future supply
Q4 2012lOGISTIC PROPERTYREPORT
Project Location Total Size (sqm) Completion
HemerajLogisticPark3(Phase1) Chonburi 18,656 Q12013
SKHWarehouse1 SamutPrakarn 40,035 Q12013
WashingtonTown SamutPrakarn 9,720 Q12013
RichFactory SamutPrakarn 15,655 Q12013
WHAPhaholyothin Ayutthaya 62,000 Q12013
PKPark(Phase1) SamutPrakarn 9,720 Q22013
ThrivenGroup SamutPrakarn 20,184 Q22013
WHABangna SamutPrakarn 53,130 Q22013
HemerajLogisticPark4 Rayong 28,401 Q22013
TPARKEasternSeaboard1(B) Rayong 41,000 Q22013
TPARKAmataNakorn(expansion) Chonburi N/A Q42013
SKHWarehouse2 SamutPrakarn 20,000 Q42013
TPARKEasternSeaboard1(C) Chonburi N/A 2014
TPARKEasternSeaboard2(B) Chonburi N/A 2014
HemarajLogisticPark3 Chonburi 62,000 N/A
WHAAmataNakornI.E. Chonburi N/A N/A
PKPark SamutPrakarn 75,328 N/A
Table2
Source:KnightFrankThailandResearch
Warehouse Rental Market
Rental Rate (THB/sqm/Month) by Locations
Bangkok Rama 2 - Samut Sakhon
Pathum Thani - Ayutthaya
Suvarnabhumi - Bangpakong
Eastern Seaboard
Prime 177.05 166.14 191.63 167.06 167.50
Secondary 121.23 117.92 136.52 115.39 132.05
Warehouse Rents in Key Logistics Locations
Source:KnightFrankThailandResearch
Warehouserentalratesvarydependingonbuildingage,specifications,condition,andlocation.Mostoftheprimewarehousesaremoderndistributioncentres,offeringraisedfloors,docks,andceilingsofatleast10m.inheight.
Rentshavenotwitnessedmuchfluctuation,thanksinparttonewsupplythathasincreasedinlinewithincreaseddemand.
Thesecondarymarketismarkedlycheaperonaveragebutquality,age,andconditionareoftenreflectedinthepricedifferential.
Table3
outlook Robustdemandinthewakeoftherecoveryoftheexportsectorhaspiquedtheinterestoflocalinvestorsinlogisticproperties.Consequently,KnightFrankhasseenanumberofnewprojectsentertheplanningstage.
www.KnightFrank.com
7
appendix: Warehouse Rental Market:purposebuiltwarehousesforrentfromallmajordevelopers,butnotlimitedtoindustrialestatelocations.
Prime Warehouse Market :readybuiltwarehousesthatcommandandachievethetop10%inhighestrentsfortheirsector.
Knight Frank Research provides strategic advice, consultancy services and forecastingto a wide range of clients worldwide including developers, investors, fundingorganisations, corporate institutions and the public sector. All our clients recognisethe need for expert independent advice customised to their specific needs.
Knight Frank Research Reports are also available at www.knightfrank.com
© Knight Frank LLP 2013
This report is published for general information only. Although high standards have been used in thepreparation of the information, analysis, views and projections presented in this report, no legal responsibilitycan be accepted by Knight Frank Research or Knight Frank LLP for any loss or damage resultant from thecontents of this document. As a general report, this material does not necessarily represent the view ofKnight Frank LLP in relation to particular properties or projects. Reproduction of this report in whole or in partis allowed with proper reference to Knight Frank Research.
Knight Frank LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England with registered number OC305934.Our registered office is 55 Baker Street, London, W1U 8AN, where you may look at a list of members’ names.
Thailand ContactsPhanom KanjanathiemthaoManaging Director+66 (0)2643 8223 Ext [email protected]
Chaturawit WattanaprukExecutive Director+66 (0)2643 8223 Ext [email protected]
Surasak Limpa-ArayakulExecutive Director, Head of Valuation and Advisory+66 (0)2643 8223 Ext [email protected]
Roong SitthisankunchornExecutive Director, Head of Property Management+66 (0)2643 8223 Ext [email protected]
Marcus BurtenshawExecutive Director, Head of Commercial Agency+66 (0)2643 8223 Ext [email protected]
Frank KhanExecutive Director, Head of Residential +66 (0)2643 8223 Ext [email protected]
Risinee SarikaputraAssociate Director, Research and Advisory+66 (0)2643 8223 Ext [email protected] Phuket ContactNattha KahapanaExecutive Director, Knight Frank Phuket+66 (0)7631 8151 Ext [email protected]
AmericasUSABermudaBrazilCaribbeanChileAustralasia
AustraliaNewZealand
EuropeUKBelgiumCzechRepublicFranceGermanyHungaryIrelandItalyMonacoPolandPortugalRussiaSpainTheNetherlandsUkraine
AfricaBotswanaKenyaMalawiNigeriaSouthAfricaTanzaniaUgandaZambiaZimbabwe
AsiaCambodiaChinaHongKongIndiaIndonesiaMacauMalaysiaSingaporeThailandVietnam
