Q4 2011 - Columbus Industrial
-
Upload
colliersohio -
Category
Business
-
view
318 -
download
2
description
Transcript of Q4 2011 - Columbus Industrial
PROPERTY TYPE VACANCY RATES OVER COMPLETIONS
1 5 10 15 20 25 30
(2,000,000)
(1,500,000)
(1,000,000)
(500,000)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
16.0
17.0
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
Q211
Q311
Q411
Completions Absorptions Total Market Vacancy Rate
INDUSTRIAL TRENDS REPORTGREATER COLUMBUS REGION
www.colliers.com/columbus
Growth, Expansion Marks 2011INDUSTRIAL MARKET OVERVIEWThe fourth quarter continued in positive growth from the second and third quarters with 52,000 square feet of positive absorption. The largest movement in absorption was expected from Mars Petcare moving out of more than 700,000 square feet in two separate facilities, 3051 Creekside and 3800 Groveport Road. With the completion of their new 1.3 million square foot facility last quarter, some large negative absorption was expected. Instead, Zulily took 737,741 square feet at 3051 Creekside driving 130,000 square feet of absorption. The new lease occurred while Allianz Life Insurance Co. was under contract to sell property as a part of a portfolio sale to KTR Capital Partners.
FORECASTS AND REFLECTION• There were six significant investment sales
(sales with full occupancy) in the Columbus market. STAG Industrial purchased the 385,000-square-foot 1120 Morrison Road for $7.8 million, 9.0 percent cap rate. KTR Capital Partners purchased five properties from Allianz Life Insurance Co. as part of an 18 property sale. The Columbus transfer totalled 2.5 million square feet for $62 million.
• VeePak completed its 105,000-square-foot facility in New Albany. Still underway in New
Albany is Knowlton’s 240,000-square-foot facility, Axium Plastic’s 110,000 square foot facility, and Pizzuti’s 303,000-square-foot speculative warehouse. Pizzuti’s construction continues for MBM in Groveport as well with approximately 125,000 square feet.
• Tenants are optimistic about growing consumer demand, but cautious in expanding their lease for long terms (5+ years). Companies are still leery of another slowdown.
RENTAL RATES
Asking rental rates remained stable from last quarter. Supply has decrease over the past two quarters by 1.6 percent points, from 13.5 to 11.8 percent.
MARKET INDICATORS
WEIGHTED AVERAGE RENTAL RATESRates for the Major Product Types
Q3
2011*
Q4
2011**
VACANCY
NET ABSORPTION
CONSTRUCTION
RENTAL RATES — — *Actual change from previous quarter
**Projected change from previous quarter
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
$2.20
$2.15
$2.10
$2.05
$2.00
$1.95
$1.90
$1.85
$1.803Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q10 4Q10
Q4 2011 | INDUSTRIAL
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
General Industrial R&D/Flex Warehouse/Dist.
REGIONAL INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICSThe Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland reports at least once a quarter in the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book about the economic activity of the fourth district, which includes the Columbus Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The Beige Book from January 2011 reported that industrial activity in the fourth district grew at a slow pace in the six weeks previous to January 11. Freight transportation executives reported that transport volume slowed along seasonal trends. Capital outlays are expected to increase during 2012 for fleet expansion and replacement of aging equipment.
Manufacturers reported that new orders were mainly stable with any declines due to seasonal factors. Demand is being driven by auto, energy and heavy equipment industries. Manufacturers remained committed to capital spending plans for 2012. Capacity utilization was below normal for all industries except for steel production. Hiring continued at a modest pace, but managers found it difficult to find high-skilled and professional workers.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that manufacturing employment of 63,100 employees in November which was an increase of 800 over October. Year over year manufacturing is down by 0.3 percent. Trade, transportation and utilities employment grew by 5,700 employees from
October, with an increase of 1.8 percent year over year. Mining, logging and construction decreased by 1,000 employees from October and is up 13.9 percent year over year.
ASKING RATESAverage asking rental rates increased slightly from the second quarter. R&D/Flex space increased by $0.38; general industrial decreased by $0.17; and warehouse/distribution by $0.01. General industrial prices did not change significantly but the amount of available space at higher prices did change. The R&D/Flex increased substantially due to the actual change in prices, the median price increased only by $0.20 and the non-weighted mean increased only by $0.10. As stated in the Q3 Market Report, the market has likely seen the end of bottoming prices and we expect that there will be slight increases to asking rates.
MARKET INTELMarket Activity Volume is the sum of the absolute value of each absorption change in the market. It tells us a little more about what exactly happened to the market behind the absorption number. The Market Activity Volume was 3,654,787 square feet. With only 52,000 feet absorbed, the market seems to be settling from the past two quarters, where large positive gains dominated the movement in the market.
The Columbus industrial market consists of 10 suburban submarkets and the Central Business District. The total inventory for the region is 213 million square feet of space
MARKET ACTIVITY
SALES ACTIVITY
PROPERTY ADDRESS SALES DATE SALE PRICE SIZE SF GRANTOR GRANTEE PRICE / SF TYPE SUBMARKET
6766 Pontius Road November $17,000,000 754,000 Allianz Life Insurance Co KTR Capital Partners $22.55 Ware./Dist. Southeast
3051 Creekside
Parkway
November $18,500,000 737,000 Allianz Life Insurance Co KTR Capital Partners $25.10 Ware./Dist. Southeast
6250 Opus Drive October $13,739,300 676,564 CBRE Realty Trust Exeter Property Group $20.31 Ware./Dist. Southeast
5820 Opus Drive November $10,300,000 406,694 Allianz Life Insurance Co KTR Capital Partners $25.33 Ware./Dist. Southeast
1120 Morrison Road October $7,800,000 385,655 Hollingsworth Capital Partner STAG Industrial $20.23 Ware./Dist. East
5765 N Green Pointe
Drive
November $8,900,000 358,760 Allianz Life Insurance Co KTR Capital Partners $24.81 Ware./Dist. Southeast
5650 Green Pointe Drive November $7,300,000 270,000 Allianz Life Insurance Co KTR Capital Partners $27.04 Ware./Dist. Southeast
4252 Groves Road December $2,225,000 208,000 4252 Groves Road Equities City of Columbus $10.70 Ware./Dist. Southeast
Union County
Delaware County
Licking County
North
East
CBD
West
Southwest Southeast
Fairfield County
Pickaway County
Madison County
LEASE ACTIVITY
PROPERTY ADDRESS LEASE SF LESSOR LESSEE ASKING PRICE (NNN) TYPE SUBMARKET
3051 Creekside Parkway 737,471 Allianz Life Insurance Co. Zulily $3.25 Warehouse/Distribution Southeast
3425 Urbancrest Industrial Dr 188,000 Security Capital Industrial Trust Round 2 - Warehouse/Distribution Southwest
3420 Urbancrest Industrial Drive 88,024 ProLogis Trust Exel $2.95 Warehouse/Distribution Southwest
111 Enterprise Drive 65,000 Paragano Nazario P.A.C. $2.70 Warehouse/Distribution Licking
2235 Southwest Boulevard 48,488 Industrial Southpark Owner LLC Cinco Electric $3.10 (MG) R&D/Flex Southwest
P. 2 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT|Q42011|INDUSTRIAL|GREATERCOLUMBUSREGION
CONSTRUCTION
McGraw-HillConstruction’smostrecentreportshowedconstructionstartsforcommercial,industrial,hotelandinstitutionalprojectsincreasedto$50millionintheeight-countyregioninSeptemberto$50million,from$42.74millioninSeptember2010.Theyeartodatetotalofnonresidentialconstructioncontractsthroughthefirstninemonthsof2011fellto$784.83millionwhichis26percentbelow2010’s$1.07billion.
UPDATE Market Comparisons
INDUSTRIAL MARKET
Net Absorption Construction Asking Rental Rates
SUBMARKET Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current Completions WH/Dist R&D/FlexCBD 5,907,062 685,817 11.6 30,500 392,858 - - - $6.59
EAST 20,682,243 4,238,914 20.5 1,756 (463,580) - - $3.25 $6.00
FAIRFIELD 6,771,842 617,675 9.1 (293,548) (214,948) - - $4.00 $6.90
LICKING 18,832,930 1,297,016 6.9 65,000 402,874 773,000 105,000 $2.90 -
MADISON 8,148,397 - 0.0 - - - - - -
NORTH 16,747,138 1,589,882 9.5 (22,600) (124,468) - 70,000 $3.18 $5.16
NORTH DELAWARE 9,132,849 1,057,267 11.6 (5,633) (175,016) - - $2.99 $6.75
PICKAWAY 3,550,850 71,900 2.0 - - - - $2.48 -
SOUTHEAST 64,181,757 10,347,192 16.1 (263,857) 920,384 125,000 - $2.62 $3.22
SOUTHWEST 17,683,127 1,156,899 6.5 319,581 468,991 - - $2.92 $4.45
UNION 6,333,817 362,765 5.7 143,800 151,032 - - - $4.33
WEST 35,935,786 3,933,936 10.9 77,162 1,731,891 - - $2.34 $4.31
TOTALS 213,907,798 25,359,263 11.9 52,161 3,090,018 898,000 175,000 $2.69 $4.66
Net Absorption Construction Asking Rental Rates
SUBMARKET Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current Completions By Product TypeR&D/FLEX 20,280,125 3,044,234 15.0 175,908 574,599 - 70,000 $4.66
GENERAL INDUSTRIAL 71,945,139 5,890,939 8.2 147,147 295,603 428,000 - $3.07
WAREHOUSE/
DISTRIBUTION
121,752,534 16,424,090 13.5 (270,894) 2,219,816 470,000 105,000 $2.69
TOTALS 213,977,798 25,359,263 11.9 52,161 3,090,018 898,000 175,000 $2.99
QUARTERLY COMPARISON AND TOTALS
Net Absorption Construction Asking Rental Rates
QUARTER, YEAR Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current Completions ($)Q3, 2011 213,802,798 25,411,424 11.9 1,286,321 3,037,857 1,003,000 1,800,000 $2.80
Q2, 2011 211,998,240 26,697,745 12.6 2,113,899 1,751,536 1,992,000 - $2.80
Q1, 2011 211,923,599 28,974,755 13.5 (362,363) (362,363) 1,992,000 - $2.72
Q4, 2010 205,420,829 26,113,915 12.7 743,685 (766,901) 1,575,000 (536,292) $2.57
RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT|Q42011|INDUSTRIAL|GREATERCOLUMBUSREGION
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 3
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICTThe Central Business District (CBD) added 30,500 square feet of positive absorption in the fourth quarter. The vacancy rate has steadily fallen over the past five quarters by 665 basis points to 11.6 percent. Buckeye Diamond Logistics took 16,500 square feet at Techsouth C.
EASTThe submarkets comprising eastern Columbus are East and Licking County. Construction has been completed for VeePak’s 105,000 square foot facility as well as the 70,000 square feet of Pharmaforce’s new R&D/Flex facility.
Quebec Ontario-based KDC is expected to complete its 240,000-square-foot building in spring 2012. Mississauga, Canada-based Axium Plastics will complete a 110,000-square-foot facility in spring 2012, employing 165. Construction continues on Pizzuti’s 303,000-square-foot speculative building planned for spring 2012. Sonoco is constructing a 120,000-square-foot facility and is also expected to be completed in 2012.
NORTHThe submarkets comprising northern Columbus are North and North Delaware. Both submarkets lost a small amount of occupancy this quarter. In the North, DRC Automation moved out of 20,540 square feet at 7830-7832 North Central Drive. Carmel Pharma who had been leasing 13,120 square feet at 7029 Huntley was bought out and has been closed. In North Delaware, Granite Co. moved out of 15,673 square feet of space. Oxywater moved into 19,140 square feet at 8255 Green Meadows Drive.
SOUTHEASTThe Southeast submarket incurred 263,857 square feet of negative absorption. 2175 Broehm Road was purchased by an owner user adding 203,000 to occupancy. 3051 Creekside Parkway has been fully leased by Zulily netting 130,000 square feet of absorption. 1662 Williams Road was purchased by an owner user and added 96,034 square feet to occupancy. 4333 Directors Boulevard was purchased by an owner user adding 43,460 to occupancy.
Significant negative absorption came from Mars Petcare’s vacancy of more than 700,000 square
feet of 3800 Groveport Road. Exel vacated 173,457 square feet 6360 Port Road.
Construction continues on Pizzuti’s 125,000-square-foot facility for MBM in Groveport at 2240 Creekside Parkway.
SOUTHThe southern submarkets are Pickaway and Fairfield counties. Fairfield lost 316,000 square feet at 411 Ewing Street. No changes were recorded in Pickaway.
SOUTHWESTThe Southwest submarket showed absorption of 319,581 square feet. The largest gains in absorption came from Round 2 moving into 188,000 square feet of 3425 Urbancrest Industrial Drive. Exel moved into 88,000 square feet of 3420 Urbancrest Industrial Drive from the Southeast submarket. Cinco Electric absorbed 48,488 square feet of 2235 Southwest Boulevard through purchase.
WESTThe submarkets on the west side of Franklin county are West, Madison and Union. The West gained marginally with 3701 Lacon Road, which was sold to an owner/user. Aoki Manufacturing absorbed 55,470 square feet after purchasing 1705 Atlas Street.
YEAR END WRAP-UPThe Columbus industrial market strengthened throughout 2011. Strong leasing in the second quarter and third quarter of 2,113,899 and 1,286,321 square feet respectively, drove the vacancy rate down 160 basis points.
In 2010, the market had lost more than 2.5 million square feet of industrial space from the demolitions of a Big Bear distribution facility on 3rd Avenue in Grandview and a property located at 200 Georgesville Road. In 2011, however, the market gained 1,975,000 square feet with 898,000 square feet still under construction in 2012.
The largest leases of the year were Thirty-One Gifts leasing 750,000 square feet at 4545 Fisher Road; Zulily, leasing 737,000 square feet at 3051 Creekside Parkway; and Sperian, leasing 500,000 square feet at 6766 Pontius Road.
Leslie HobbsMarketing and Research Manager8800 Lyra DriveSuite #150Columbus, Ohio, 43240TEL +1 614 410 5640
Jonathan BadgleyResearch Analyst175 South Third StreetSuite # 285Columbus, Ohio 43201TEL +1 614 437 4495
512 offices in 61 countries on 6 continentsUnited States: 125Canada: 38Latin America: 18Asia Pacific: 214EMEA: 117
• $1.5billioninannualrevenue
• 978.6millionsquarefeetundermanagement
• Over12,500professionals
This document/email has been prepared by Colliers International for advertising purposes. Colliers International statistics and data are audited annually and may result in revisions to previously reported quarterly and final year-end figures. Sources include Columbus Dispatch, Business First, Xceligent, and the Wall Street Journal.
www.colliers.com/columbus
Accelerating success.
UNITED STATES:
ColumbusRichard B. Schuen SIOR CCIMCEO | Principal | Columbus8800 Lyra DriveSuite # 150Columbus, Ohio 43240TEL +1 614 410 5612
RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT|Q42011|INDUSTRIAL|GREATERCOLUMBUSREGION