Q2 HSBC PMI Report Global

8/4/2019 Q2 HSBC PMI Report Global

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HSBC Emerging

Markets IndexQ2 2011


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With a further drop from 55.0 to 54.2 inthe second quarter of 2011, the latestreading of the HSBC Emerging MarketsIndex (EMI) conrms that, after a strongrebound in the immediate aftermath ofthe global nancial crisis, the pace ofactivity is fading. Output growth is at itsweakest for two years. Much of the lossof momentum is taking place inmanufacturing although the servicesector is not entirely immune.

Overall, the latest readings are consistent with the impressionthat world trade growth peaked in the rst quarter of the yearand has since lost momentum. In many parts of the emergingworld, there has been a noticeable reduction in the growth ofexport orders, consistent with the experience of countries in thedeveloped world.

Doubtless, the second quarter readings offer greater uncertaintythan usual, a reection of the possible distortions to the globalsupply chain associated with the Japanese earthquake andtsunami. We will nd out more in the months ahead about theextent to which Japans terrible tragedy has led to a temporarydip as opposed to a permanent slowdown - in economicactivity around the world. Yet, even if global supply disruption isplaying a part, other inuences are also making themselvesfelt.

Of these, perhaps the most welcome at least from apolicymakers point of view - is the impact of persistent policytightening on ination. Higher interest rates and a cornucopia ofquantitative tightening (QT) measures may be leading toslower growth but they are also contributing to dwindlingination pressures.While many central banks in the emerging world have resistedaggressive increases in interest rates, fearing excessive currencyappreciation, it seems that QT measures recently adopted inmany emerging nations have put the brakes on ination. Inputprice ination has certainly faded with the latest readingsshowing the sharpest easing of pressures in two-and-a-halfyears - and there are some initial signs that output price inationpressures may also be on the wane. This seems particularly trueof China, where both output growth and ination have headedsignicantly lower during the rst half of 2011.

While softer growth on its own is hardly welcome, the slowdownis proving to be a useful antidote to excessive ination. Yet thisis hardly an excuse for policymakers to relax. With persistentlylow interest rates in the US and elsewhere in the developed

Stephen King

07 July 2011

The emergence of The Southern Silk Road sets thescene for a revolution in the global economy.

Persistent quantitative tighteningcontributes to dwindling ination pressuresacross the emerging world.


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world, emerging nations have become magnets for globalcapital. The risks associated with this are many: asset pricebubbles, property booms, excessive currency appreciation and,of course, inationary pressures. We shall need to see moreevidence of progress on ination later this year before beingable to declare victory through the various unconventional QToptions.

While the EMI provides a near-term barometer of developmentsthroughout the emerging world, its important not to lose sightof some of the important structural changes now taking place inthe global economy. Even before the nancial crisis, economicgrowth in the emerging world was pulling away from thedeveloped world. Post-crisis, that trend has only beenaccentuated. Yet this raises an obvious question. If growth in theemerging world is export-led and ultimately dependent ondemand from US and European consumers, how can theemerging nations expect to carry on growing given the ongoingweakness of the western economic recovery?The answer, we believe, lies with what HSBC has termed TheSouthern Silk Road, a new network of South-South tradeconnections slowly being established between nations in theemerging world. With some of the biggest M&A deals in LatinAmerica last year involving Chinese companies and with ever-more Asian investment pouring into infrastructure projectselsewhere in the emerging world, the scene is set for a revolutionin the global economy that will bypass both North America andEurope.

The incentives for change are enormous. China and India areboth growing at an extraordinary rate: incomes per capita inChina, for example, are increasing every ten years by the sameamount that the US took 50 years to achieve in the 19th Centuryand the rst half of the 20th Century.

To sustain these kinds of growth rates, China and India needguaranteed access to the worlds raw materials. Yet theinfrastructure needed to extract and transport these commoditiesfrom elsewhere in the emerging world is often, at best,rudimentary. As a result, we are likely to see more and moreAsian-funded infrastructure projects in Latin America and partsof Africa. As this new infrastructure comes on stream, so a newnetwork of economic connections across the emerging worldwill be established.

Meanwhile, the car industries developing behind closed doorsin China and India are creating cars which, in time, can be sold

elsewhere in the emerging world. With incomes per capita inthe emerging world now reaching levels where the purchase ofa rst, very cheap, car becomes a viable option, its not difcultto imagine a new consumer revolution focusing less on the USand Europe and a lot more on demand from the emergingnations.

The result of all these changes could easily be a tenfold increasein South-South trade in the rst half of the 21st Century, areplay of the explosion of trade that led to stronger economicconnections between countries in the OECD world back in the1950s and 1960s. South-South connections are the last greatunexplored opportunity, carrying the potential to turbo-chargeglobal economic growth in the years ahead even while the Westremains heavily constrained by excessive debts.

Overall, then, the softness revealed within the latest EMIindicates, rst, that earlier policy tightening may be workingand, second, that inationary pressures may be fading. And if asoft landing can be achieved, the stage is set for a sustainedperiod of growth across the emerging world driven by newSouth-South connections.

Stephen KingGroup Chief Economist


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HSBC Emerging Markets Index

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62

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Key ndings: New business rises at slowest rate since Q3 2010. Input cost ination eases markedly. Longer lead times recorded for eighth successive quarter. Service sector business optimism remains historically weak.

Emerging market output growth weakest for two yearsin Q2 2011. Price pressures ease sharply.

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IndiaChinaBrazilRussia

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50.0 = no-change on the previous quarter, S.Adj.

50.0 = no-change on the previous quarter, S.Adj.Increasing rate of growth

Increasing rate of growth

Increasing rate of contraction


EMI (all-sector output)

BRIC (all-sector output)

Output growth eases further from Q4 2010 peakThe HSBC Emerging Markets Index (EMI), a quarterly indicatorderived from the monthly PMI surveys, showed that emergingmarket growth continued to ease in Q2 2011. The index posted54.2, down from 55.0 in the rst quarter, and the weakestreading for two years.The EMI is based on 21 PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) surveys conducted across 16 emerging markets and providesthe earliest and most reliable indication of economic trends.The moderation in overall activity growth reected a weakerincrease in manufacturing production, with the pace of expansioneasing to the slowest in three quarters. Meanwhile, serviceproviders recorded a slightly faster rise in business activity,albeit one that was the second-slowest since Q2 2009.Broad-based slowdown in manufacturingRates of production growth eased across the majority ofmanufacturing sectors monitored by the survey, with SouthAfrica and Singapore the two exceptions. Particularly markedslowdowns were registered in Turkey and the Czech Republic,with rates of expansion down on record highs seen in the rstquarter. Elsewhere in Eastern Europe, Poland and Russia sawactivity growth moderate to four- and ve-quarter lowsrespectively.Looking at Emerging Asia, factory output rose at the weakestrates for two quarters in Taiwan and South Korea, while China

saw growth slow to the least marked in nine quarters. EvenIndia recorded a slower rise in manufacturing output, althoughthe rate of growth remained substantial, and by far the sharpestof all emerging markets monitored by the survey.The weaker increase in manufacturing output in part reected amoderation in new order growth, which in turn was linked to aslowdown in the rate of expansion in new export orders to amarginal pace. Of the largest emerging markets, Brazil, Chinaand Russia all recorded reductions in new export orders.Meanwhile, India reported the slowest pace of growth for one-and-a-half years, and rates of expansion eased noticeably inTaiwan and South Korea. Only marginal increases in exportswere seen in Turkey (slowest in nine quarters) and Poland(growth at seven-quarter low).Service sector growth holds steady in Q2Despite easing to a six-quarter low, India again recorded thefastest rate of activity growth of all emerging market servicesectors monitored by the EMI, followed closely by Russia. Ratesof expansion held broadly steady in Brazil and Mexico, while


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Exports (manufacturing)New Orders (all sectors)

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Outstanding Business (all sectors)Employment (all sectors)

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Input Prices (all sectors)Output Prices (all sectors)

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50.0 = no-change on the previous quarter, S.Adj. Increasing rate of growth


Increasing rate of ination



Increasing rate of deation

Orders and exports

Input and output prices

Employment and backlogs of work

output growth accelerated from Q1s record low in China.Business optimism among emerging market service providersdipped to the fourth-lowest in the series history, with condencein China sliding to a record low. Meanwhile, Indian serviceproviders were less optimistic about future activity levels than inQ1. Conversely, optimism in the one-year business outlookreached a six-quarter peak in Brazil, and hit a six-and-a-half yearhigh among Russian service sector rms.Delays in the supply chain persistReective of a further moderation in output growth, the quantityof inputs acquired by emerging market manufacturers rose atthe slowest rate in three quarters. Stocks of raw materials andsemi-manufactured goods fell marginally in the second quarter,and at the fastest rate since Q3 2009. Manufacturing rmsutilised stock holdings in an attempt to mitigate against delays inthe supply chain amid widespread disruption in the wake ofJapans earthquake and tsunami.The average time taken by vendors to deliver inputs to emergingmarket manufacturers lengthened for the eighth quarter runningin Q2, although the rate of delivery time lengthening eased tothe slowest since Q3 2010. The Czech Republic and Israelregistered the most marked deteriorations in average vendor

performance.Input price ination eases to three-quarter lowAgainst a backdrop of continued monetary tightening by centralbanks across the emerging world, the latest EMI ndingssignalled the sharpest easing of input cost ination for two-and-a-half years. This was signalled by the input prices index droppingmore than four points from Q1s eleven-quarter high. Themoderation was centred on the manufacturing sector, wherepurchase price ination eased to a three-quarter low. Serviceproviders again recorded a slower rise in average costs thanmanufacturers. However, with only a modest easing of pricepressures in services, latest data indicated a sharp narrowing ofthe ination gap between the two sectors.With input price ination weaker, emerging market rms raisedtheir output charges at the slowest rate for three quarters in Q22011. Similar to the trend for average costs, manufacturersrecorded a sharper moderation in output price ination thantheir service sector counterparts. All four of the largest emergingmarkets saw a slower rise in output charges as measured acrossboth manufacturing and services.

First decline in outstanding business since Q3 2010Emerging market companies continued to increase theiremployee numbers in Q2, with the rate of job creation reachinga four-quarter high. This occurred despite a decline in outstandingbusiness for the rst time since Q3 2010. Falling backlogscommonly indicate the development of spare capacity, whichsuggests that employment growth will likely slow heading into

the second half of 2011.Service providers recorded a faster increase in staff levels thanmanufacturers, with employment growth the fastest for a yearin the former. In contrast, manufacturing rms added to theirworkforce numbers at the slowest rate since Q3 2009.


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All sectorsServicesManufacturing

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50.0 = no-change on the previous quarter, S.Adj.Increasing rate of growth




Increasing rate of contractionIncreasing rate of contraction

Output by sector

Output in BRIC countries (all sectors)

New business by sector

New business in BRIC countries (all sectors)

Output

Emerging market output growth eases totwo-year low, led by manufacturing.A further rise in emerging market output was recorded duringQ2. Although solid, the rate of activity growth weakened to theslowest in two years, and was below the long-run seriesaverage.

At the composite level, the moderation in output growth wascentred on manufacturing, with factory production rising at theslowest rate since Q3 2010. In contrast, service providers sawactivity growth quicken from Q1s seven-quarter low.

Despite easing to the slowest since Q4 2009, activity growthin India was by far the sharpest of the big-four emergingmarkets, followed by Russia. Meanwhile, China registered theweakest expansion of private sector activity in nine quarters,as manufacturing production growth eased to only a modestpace. A weaker rise in output was also recorded in Brazil.

New Business

Growth of new orders loses further traction inthe second quarter of 2011.The latest EMI ndings signalled that growth of demand forgoods and services continued to soften in the second quarter,with new orders rising at the slowest rate since Q3 2010.

Both manufacturers and service providers recorded slowerrates of new business growth in Q2 2011, easing to three- andeight-quarter lows respectively.

India was again the principal driver of new order growth asmeasured across both manufacturing and services, althoughthe rate of expansion was slower than in Q1. Similarly, bothBrazil and Russia saw growth rates ease to three quarter lows,while China recorded the slowest rise in new order intakes fornine quarters. Most emerging market manufacturers saw amoderation in new order growth, with Turkey reporting aparticularly marked slowdown.




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50.0 = no-change on the previous quarter, S.Adj. 50.0 = no-change on the previous quarter, S.Adj.







Increasing rate of contraction Increasing rate of contraction

Outstanding business by sector

Outstanding business in BRIC countries (all sectors)

Employment by sector

Employment in BRIC countries (all sectors)

Outstanding Business

Backlogs of work decline for rst time in threequarters.Outstanding business decreased in Q2 2011, following a two-quarter period of backlog accumulation. That said, the rate ofdepletion was only slight. The drop in work-in-hand (but not yetcompleted) primarily reected a further moderation in neworder growth.

After stagnating in Q1, the level of unnished business in theservice sector fell marginally during Q2. In contrast,manufacturers reported a rise in backlogs of work, althoughthe pace of growth was the slowest in three quarters.

Looking at the largest emerging markets, Brazil and Russiarecorded decreases in outstanding business, with the declinein the latter the most marked for two years. Conversely, Chinaand India both saw a rise in work-in-hand, although rates ofaccumulation were only marginal.

EmploymentService sector hiring drives emerging marketemployment growth to four-quarter high.Employment in emerging markets rose for the eighth quarterrunning in Q2 2011. The rate of job creation was the sharpestfor a year, but slightly slower than the pre-global recessionaverage.

For the fth quarter in a row, service providers recorded afaster rise in staff numbers than manufacturers, with growthreaching a one-year high in the former. In contrast,manufacturers added to their workforce numbers at theslowest rate since Q3 2009.

Assessing the combined growth of manufacturing and servicesector employment in the largest emerging markets, Russiarecorded the fastest increase, with growth hitting a three-and-a-half year high. Meanwhile, modest rates of job creation wererecorded in Brazil, China and India.


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Increasing rate of ination Increasing rate of ination

Increasing rate of ination Increasing rate of ination

Increasing rate of deationIncreasing rate of deation

Increasing rate of deationIncreasing rate of deation

Input prices by sector

Input prices in BRIC countries (all sectors)

Output prices by sector

Output prices in BRIC countries (all sectors)

Input Prices

A sharp easing of input cost ination seenacross emerging markets.Input price ination in emerging markets eased sharply in Q22011, with the latest rise in average costs the least marked forthree quarters.

Manufacturers recorded a particularly marked easing of inputprice ination, with the relevant index dropping over ten pointsfrom Q1s near-record high. Service sector costs also increasedat a weaker rate, although the moderation was not as sharp asin manufacturing. Even so, manufacturers continued to reporta stronger increase in average costs than service sectorrms.All of the big-four emerging markets saw costs rise at a slowerpace in Q2, with Brazil recording the weakest increase. Thefastest rate of input price ination was seen in Russia for thesecond quarter in a row.

Output Prices

Output price ination eases to three-quarterlow in Q2.Prices charged for goods and services increased for an eighthsuccessive quarter in Q2. However, a sharp easing of inputcost ination contributed to a more subdued rise in outputcharges, with the latest increase the slowest since Q3 2010.

The rate of output price ination in the manufacturing sectoreased sharply to a three-quarter low in Q2. Despite this,average tariffs increased at a sharper rate in manufacturingrelative to services, where charge ination eased onlymarginally.

Of the largest emerging markets, output prices rose at thefastest rate in Russia, followed closely by India. Brazil recordedthe slowest increase in charges, while China saw ination easeto a three-quarter low. This mainly reected a much weakerrise in prices charged by manufacturing rms.


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Increasing rate of growth Increasing rate of growth




New export orders (manufacturing) Quantity of purchases (manufacturing)

Quantity of purchases in BRIC countries (manufacturing)New export orders in BRIC countries (manufacturing)

New Export Orders

New export orders rise at slowest pace sinceQ3 2010.

New export business taken by emerging market manufacturerscontinued to rise in Q2, bringing the current run of expansionto two years. However, the rate of increase moderated sinceQ1 to the slowest for three quarters.

The slowdown in overall new export order growth reectedcontractions in three of the four largest emerging markets

(Brazil, Russia and China), as well as weaker expansions acrossalmost all other countries/regions monitored by the EMI. OnlyIsrael, Singapore, Saudi Arabia and the UAE bucked the trend,recording sharper rates of increase.The decline in China was particularly notable as it was the rstdecrease recorded since Q2 2009.

Quantity of Purchases

Buying activity growth weakens further.

In response to further inows of new business, emergingmarket manufacturers acquired additional supplies of rawmaterials and semi-nished goods in Q2. However, the rate ofincrease in purchasing activity eased to the weakest for threequarters.

Of the emerging market manufacturing sectors monitored by

the EMI, ten posted a rise in buying activity during the secondquarter. However, only India and the UAE registered sharperrates of increase. Brazil and Hong Kong, meanwhile, recordedlower levels of input buying.

The most pronounced slowdown in purchasing activity growthwas recorded in Turkey, where the sharpest easing in neworder expansion was also recorded.


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Increasing rate of contraction Increasing rate of contraction


Stocks of nished goods (manufacturing)

Stocks of nished goods in BRIC countries (manufacturing)

Stocks of purchases (manufacturing)

Stocks of purchases in BRIC countries (manufacturing)

Stocks of Finished Goods

Post-production inventories fall at weakestrate in three quarters.

Finished goods holdings continued to fall in the second quarterof 2011. However, the pace of reduction was only marginal, andthe slowest since Q3 2010.

Inventory levels fell across two of the big-four emergingmarkets, with Brazil and India the exceptions. In China, stockdepletion held steady at a modest rate, while Russian

manufacturing rms recorded a sharper drop in inventoryholdings since the preceding quarter.Poland and South Korea also saw stock levels decline in Q2,although the pace of reduction in Poland was much slowerthan in Q1. In contrast, inventories rose for the rst time intwelve- and eleven-quarters in the Czech Republic and Turkeyrespectively, and grew at a series record rate in Taiwan.

Stocks of Purchases

Input stocks decline at sharpest pace forseven quarters.

Stocks of raw materials and semi-nished goods held byemerging market manufacturers fell in Q2, following a rise inthe rst quarter. Although only marginal, the pace of inventorydepletion was the fastest since Q3 2009.

Eight of the emerging market manufacturing sectors coveredby the EMI recorded a drop in inventory levels, including Brazil

and Russia. Chinese manufacturers also saw a fall in stockholdings, with the rate of depletion the fastest in two years.Conversely, India registered a solid rise in pre-productioninventories, although growth eased to the slowest since Q42009. The Czech Republic and Taiwan also saw a rise in stocklevels, with the latter recording a series record rate ofaccumulation.


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Increasing rate of shortening

Increasing rate of shortening

Increasing optimism

Increasing optimism

Increasing pessimism

Increasing rate of lengthening

Increasing rate of lengthening

Suppliers delivery times (manufacturing)

Suppliers delivery times in BRIC countries (manufacturing)

Business expectations (services)

Business expectations in BRIC countries (services)

Suppliers Delivery Times

Lead times lengthen for eighth quarterrunning in Q2.

Amid widespread disruption to the global supply chain in wakeof Japans earthquake and tsunami, the average time taken bysuppliers to deliver inputs to emerging market manufacturerslengthened for the eighth consecutive quarter in Q2 2011.However, the rate of deterioration in vendor performance wasthe slowest in three quarters.

Longer lead times were recorded across nearly all marketsincluded in the EMI, with Saudi Arabia, South Africa and UAEthe exceptions. The Czech Republic, Israel and Taiwan sawparticularly marked rates of delivery time lengthening.

Of the largest emerging markets, average supplier performancedeteriorated at slower rates in China, India and Russia, butheld steady in Brazil.

Business Expectations

Service sector business condence remainssubdued.

Although service sector optimism was positive in Q2 2011 condence was recorded across all four of the largest emergingmarkets (Brazil, Russia, India and China) it remained subduedin relation to the long-run trend.

Brazil and Russia each registered stronger optimism regardingfuture activity levels. However, these improvements were not

sufcient to outweigh moderations in service sector condenceacross both India and China.Condence in the one-year business outlook reached a six-quarter peak in Brazil, and hit a six-and-a-half year high amongRussian service providers. In contrast, optimism in Chinadipped to a record low. Meanwhile, Indian service providerswere less optimistic about future activity levels than in Q1.


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The SurveyThe HSBC Emerging Markets Index (EMI) is a weighted composite indicator derivedfrom national Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) surveys in the emergingmarkets of Czech Republic, Hong Kong, Israel, Mexico, Poland, Singapore, SouthAfrica, South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, UAE, Saudi Arabia and the increasinglyimportant BRIC economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China. These surveyscollectively track business conditions in over 5,800 reporting companies.

The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) surveys on which the EMI is basedhave become the most closely-watched business surveys in the world, with anunmatched reputation for accurately anticipating ofcial data. The survey data arecollected using identical methods in all countries, with survey panels stratiedgeographically and by International Standard Industrial Classication (ISIC) group,based on contributions to GDP.

Survey responses reec t the change, if any, in the current month compared to theprevious month based on data collected mid-month. For each of the indicators, adiffusion index is produced, which reects the percentage of positive responsesplus a half of those responding the same. Diffusion indexes have the properties ofleading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailingdirection of change. An index reading above 50 indicates an overall increase in thatvariable, below 50 an overall decrease. All data are seasonally adjusted.

Data collected at the national level for manufacturing and services are thenweighted together according to relative contributions to national or regional GDPto produce indicators at the national whole economy or aggregate emergingmarket level.

Data SourcesCountry/ Region Producer:

Brazil MarkitRussia Markit

India Markit

China Markit

South Korea Markit

Taiwan Markit

Hong Kong Markit

South Africa BER

Singapore SIPMM

Israel IPLMA

Turkey Markit

Poland Markit

Czech Republic Markit

Mexico IMEF

UAE Markit

Saudi Arabia Markit

HSBCHSBC is one of the largest banking and nancial services organisations in theworld, with a market capitalisation of US$180bn at 31 December 2010. We areheadquartered in London. As The worlds local bank, we combine the largestglobal emerging markets banking business and a uniquely cosmopolitan customerbase with an extensive international network and substantial nancial strength.HSBC operates through long-established businesses and has an internationalnetwork of some 7,500 ofces in 87 countries and territories in six geographicalregions; Europe, Hong Kong, Rest of Asia-Pacic, the Middle East, North Americaand Latin America.

For further information please visit www.hsbc.com

About MarkitMarkit is a leading, global nancial information services company with over2,200 employees. The company provides independent data, valuations and tradeprocessing across all asset classes in order to enhance transparency, reduce risk

and improve operational efciency. Its client base includes the most signicantinstitutional participants in the nancial market place. For more information pleasesee www.markit.com

About Markit EconomicsMarkit Economics is a specialist compiler of business surveys and economicindices, including the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) series, which is nowavailable for 32 countries and also for key regions including the Eurozone. ThePMIs have become the most closely watched business surveys in the world,favoured by central banks, nancial markets and business decision makers fortheir ability to provide up-to-date, accurate and often unique monthly indicatorsof economic trends.

WARNINGWhilst every effort has been made in the preparation of this report to ensure accuracy of the statistical and other contents, the publishers and data suppliers cannot

accept any liability in respect of errors or omissions or for any losses or consequential losses arising from such errors or omissions. The information provided in thisreport is not intended as investment advice and investors should seek professional nancial advice before making any investment decisions.

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