Q1 2014 Earnings Slides
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Transcript of Q1 2014 Earnings Slides
First Quarter 2014 April 30, 2014
Genworth MI Canada Inc.
Q1 2014 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2
Forward-looking and non-IFRS statements
This presentation relating to Genworth MI Canada Inc. (the “Company”, “Genworth Canada” or “MIC”) includes certain forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to the Company’s future operating and financial results, expectations regarding premiums written, losses on claims and investment income, the Canadian housing market, and other statements that are not historical facts. These forward-looking statements may be identified by their use of words such as “may”, “would”, “could”, “will,” “intend”, “plan”, “anticipate”, “believe”, “seek”, “propose”, “estimate”, “expect”, and similar expressions. These statements are based on the Company’s current assumptions, including assumptions regarding economic, global, political, business, competitive, market and regulatory matters. These forward-looking statements are inherently subject to significant risks, uncertainties and changes in circumstances, many of which are beyond the control of the Company. The Company’s actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements, including as a result of changes in the facts underlying the Company’s assumptions, and the other risks described in the Company’s Annual Information Form dated March 17, 2014, its Short Form Base Shelf Prospectus dated May 31, 2012, the Prospectus Supplements thereto and all documents incorporated by reference in such documents. Other than as required by applicable laws, the Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise.
To supplement its financial statements, the Company uses select non-IFRS financial measures. Non-IFRS measures used by the Company to analyze performance include underwriting ratios such as loss ratio, expense ratio and combined ratio, as well as other performance measures such as adjusted net operating income and adjusted return on equity. The Company believes that these non-IFRS financial measures provide meaningful supplemental information regarding its performance and may be useful to investors because they allow for greater transparency with respect to key metrics used by management in its financial and operational decision making. Non-IFRS measures do not have standardized meanings and are unlikely to be comparable to any similar measures presented by other companies. These measures are defined in the Company’s glossary, which is posted on the Company’s website at http://investor.genworthmicanada.ca. A reconciliation from non-IFRS financial measures to the most readily comparable measures calculated in accordance with IFRS, where applicable can be found in the Company’s most recent management’s discussion and analysis, which is posted on the Company’s website and is also available at www.sedar.com.
Q1 2014 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 3
Financial highlights
Q1 2014 Q/Q
Net Operating Income $91 million +7%
Operating ROE 12% flat
Operating EPS (diluted) $0.96 +7%
MCT 229% +6 pts
Book Value Per Share (diluted, including AOCI)
$31.32 $30.94$31.82
$32.53$33.52
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014
Key messages:
Solid earnings performance with QoQ EPS growth of 7%
Ongoing generation of capital $160 mm debt raise to repay existing debt
May 1, 2014 Announced a 15% average premium rate
increase effective May 1, 2014
Operating EPS (diluted)
$0.86$0.89
$0.94$0.90
$0.96
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014
Q1 2014 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 4
Recent development – OSFI B-21 Guideline
Our current practices are generally aligned
On April 14, 2014 OSFI released for comment draft guideline B-21 entitled “Residential Mortgage Insurance Underwriting Practices and Procedures”, based on six principles:
Principles
1 Maintain a comprehensive underwriting plan
2 Maintain standards for lender qualification
3 Establish prudent underwriting criteria
4 Conduct periodic assessments of lender underwriting
5 Periodic validation of internal systems, models & processes
6 Establish effective portfolio risk management/risk mitigation
Q1 2014 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 5
Market overview
Influencer
Stable macro economic environment
Low interest rate environment continues
Improving first time home buyer confidence
Lender sentiment positive on private MI’s
Impact to business
Continued strong loss performance this year
Modest mortgage origination market growth – with stable debt ratios
Core high loan-to-value premium growth
Opportunity to improve market share position
Q1 2014 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 6
Key messages:
Credit score up 14 pts since 2008
New business mix drove average home price up 4% in Q1
Gross debt ratios stable, strong preference for 5 year fixed rate mortgages
Strong insurance portfolio quality
720 726 727 727 730 733 734
08 09 10 11 12 13 Q1'14
256 266 284 296 301 304 315
08 09 10 11 12 13 Q1'14
($000’s)
23 22
24 25
24 23
25
08 09 10 11 12 13 Q1'14
(%)
Average Credit Score
Average Home Price
Average Gross Debt Service Ratio
Q1 2014 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 7
533 453 461 517 497
337 318 311 295 303
337 301 284 284 249
507 451 463 482 527
249
255 259 252 284
Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14
1,860
Number of Reported Delinquencies
Delinquency trends
Ontario
BC
Alberta
Quebec
Other
Key messages:
Modest increase in Q1 due to typical seasonality
Downward trend YoY driven by improving employment and stable housing markets
Declining trend in most regions led by Alberta, BC and Ontario
1,963
1,778 1,778 1,830
Q1 2014 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 8
Financial overview – Q1 2014
$MM except EPS and BVPS Q1’14 Q4’13 Q1’13
Net premiums written $84 $129 $84
Net premiums earned 141 142 144
Losses on claims 28 31 44
Expenses 27 33 26
Underwriting income 86 78 74
Investment income (excl. realized gains / losses)
44 44 45
Net operating Income $91 $85 $85
Diluted operating EPS $0.96 $0.90 $0.86
Book value per share (diluted, incl. AOCI)
$33.52 $32.53 $31.32
Key messages:
Premiums written reflect typical seasonality
Premiums earned flat Loss ratio of 20% reflects
favourable economic conditions and strong portfolio quality
Investment income consistent QoQ
Strong profitability ... 7% QoQ and 12% YoY growth in EPS
Q1 2014 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 9
Premiums Earned
Limited impact from price increase on premiums earned in 2014 / 15 due to earnings curve
Impact from premium increase
Enhances long term ROE
Losses
Premiums
Premiums Written
15% premium rate increase effective May 1
Standard Product 90.01 – 95% LTV 85.01 – 90% LTV 80.01 – 85% LTV
Current 2.75% 2.00% 1.75%
New 3.15% 2.40% 1.80%
Premiums Written Impact1
2014E ~$35 MM Full Year ~$70 MM
1. Estimates based on 2013 actual high loan-to-value new insurance written
Q1 2014 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 10
74 82 84 78 86
26 26 27 33 27
44 35 32 31 28
Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14
Profitability driven by low losses
Underwriting profitability
Underwriting profit
Expenses
Losses on claims
Loss ratio 31% 25% 22% 22% 20%
Expense ratio 18% 18% 19% 23% 19%
Combined ratio 49% 43% 41% 45% 39%
($millions) Key messages:
Q1 loss ratio of 20% below expected range Expense ratio of 19% in line with management’s
expectation
Favourable economic conditions & strong business execution
Premiums earned $144 $143 $143 $142 $141
Q1 2014 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 11
Cash3%
Federal33%
Provincial16%
Corporates 44%
Common Equity4%
Investments contribute steady income
Total $5.2 billion
1. Pre-tax equivalent book yield after dividend gross-up of general portfolio (as at March 31, 2014)
Portfolio
Assets (market value) $5.2 billion
Pre-tax yield1 3.7 %
Duration 3.7 years
Key messages:
Focus on high investment quality Diversified portfolio with over 50%
government and cash Relatively short duration
Q1 2014 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 12
185% 185% 185% 185% 185%
31% 31% 33% 38% 44%
216% 216% 218%
Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14
Strong capital position
Minimum Capital Test Ratio (MCT)
Internal MCT target
Buffer
Key messages:
Continuing to balance capital strength, flexibility and efficiency
Subsequent to quarter end, successfully extended debt maturity profile
Issued $160 MM 10 year unsecured debt @ 4.24% to fund $150 MM retirement
Customized MCT will be in place for 2015 with no material impact expected
New Normal Course Issuer Bid takes effect May 5, 2014
Strong capital position ... Including $94 MM holding co. cash
229% 223%
Q1 2014 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 13
Question and Answer
SAMANTHA CHEUNG VP INVESTOR RELATIONS 905 287 5482 [email protected] www.genworth.ca
Contact: