Q1 2013 Inflation Report-noSLOS · inflation rate, which is compiled and released to the public by...
Transcript of Q1 2013 Inflation Report-noSLOS · inflation rate, which is compiled and released to the public by...
i
FOREWORD
he primary objective of monetary policy is to promote a low and stable rate of inflation conducive to a balanced and sustainable economic growth. The adoption in January
2002 of the inflation targeting framework for monetary policy was aimed at helping to fulfill this objective.
One of the key features of inflation targeting is greater transparency, which means greater disclosure and communication by the BSP of its policy actions and decisions. This Inflation Report is published by the BSP as part of its transparency mechanisms under inflation targeting. The objectives of this Inflation Report are: (i) to identify the risks to price stability and discuss their implications for monetary policy; and (ii) to document the economic analysis behind the formulation of monetary policy and convey to the public the overall thinking behind the BSP’s decisions on monetary policy. The broad aim is to make monetary policy easier for the public to understand and enable them to better monitor the BSP’s commitment to the inflation target, thereby helping both in anchoring inflation expectations and encouraging informed debate on monetary policy issues.
The government’s target for annual headline inflation under the inflation targeting
framework has been maintained at 4.0 ± 1.0 percent for 2013‐2014. For 2015‐2016, the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) decided to reduce the medium‐term inflation target to 3.0 percent ± 1.0 percent to be consistent with the desired disinflation path over the medium term, favorable trends in the structure of inflation, and expected higher capacity of the economy for growth under a low inflation environment.
The report is published on a quarterly basis, presenting a survey of the various factors
affecting inflation. These include recent price and cost developments, inflation expectations, prospects for aggregate demand and output, labor market conditions, monetary and financial market conditions, fiscal developments, and the international environment. A section is devoted to a discussion of monetary policy developments in the most recent, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the BSP’s view of the inflation outlook for the policy horizon.
The Monetary Board approved this Inflation Report at its meeting on 2 May 2013.
AMANDO M. TETANGCO, JR. Governor
10 May 2013
T
ii
List of Acronyms, Abbreviations, and Symbols AE Advanced economyAFF AHFF AMCs
Agriculture, Fishery, and ForestryAgriculture, Hunting, Forestry and Fishing Asset Management Companies
AP Asia PacificAL Auto Loans BAS Bureau of Agricultural StatisticsBES BGC BIR
Business Expectations SurveyBonifacio Global City Bureau of Internal Revenue
BIS Bank for International SettlementsBOC Bureau of Customs BPO Business Process OutsourcingBTr Bureau of the TreasuryCAMPI Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines, Inc. CAR Capital Adequacy RatioCBD Central Business DistrictCCRs Credit Card Receivables CES Consumer Expectations Survey CDS Credit Default SwapsCI Confidence IndexCPI DAA DDA DBCC DOF EIA
Consumer Price Index Deferred Accounting Adjustment Demand Deposit Account Development Budget Coordination Committee Department of Finance Energy Information Administration
EM Emerging Market EMBI ERC
JP Morgan Emerging Market Bond IndexEnergy Regulatory Commission
EU European Union FAO FPI
Food and Agriculture OrganizationFood Price Index
GDP Gross Domestic Product GNI Gross National IncomeGRAM GS
Generation Rate Adjustment MechanismGovernment Securities
ICERA Incremental Currency Exchange Rate AdjustmentIEA International Energy AgencyIMF International Monetary Fund IPP Independent Power Producer LFS Labor Force SurveyLPG Liquefied Petroleum GasLTFRB MB
Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board Monetary Board
MEM Multi‐Equation Model
iii
MENA Middle East and North AfricaMeralco Manila Electric Company MISSI Monthly Integrated Survey of Selected IndustriesMTP NBQBs
Major Trading PartnerNon‐Bank Financial Institutions with Quasi‐Banking Functions
NCCP National Council for Commuters’ ProtectionNDA NEDA NEER
Net Domestic AssetsNational Economic and Development Authority Nominal Effective Exchange Rate
NFA Net Foreign Assets; National Food AuthorityNG NGCP
National Government National Grid Corporation of the Philippines
NPC National Power CorporationNPI Net Primary Income NPLs Non‐performing loansNSO O&O
National Statistics OfficeOffshoring and Outsourcing
OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OPEC OF
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Overseas Filipinos
PBR PCE PMI PSALM
Performance‐Based Rate Personal Consumption Expenditure Purchasing Managers’ Index Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management Corporation
PSEi Philippine Stock Exchange Composite IndexPSIC Philippine Standard Industrial ClassificationRB RDA
Rural Banks Reserve Deposit Account
REER Real Effective Exchange RateROP Republic of the Philippines RP RR
RepurchaseReserve Requirement
RREL Residential and Real Estate Loans RRP RWA
Reverse Repurchase Risk Weighted Assets
SEM SMS
Single‐Equation Model Short Message Service
SDA Special Deposit AccountTCS TLP
Transportation, Communications, and Storage Total Loan Portfolio
U/KBs VAPI VOP
Universal/commercial banksValue of production index Volume of production index
WEO WESM
World Economic OutlookWholesale Electricity Spot Market
iv
THE MONETARY POLICY OF THE BANGKO SENTRAL NG PILIPINAS
The BSP Mandate The BSP’s main responsibility is to formulate and implement policy in the areas of money, banking and credit, with the primary objective of maintaining stable prices conducive to a balanced and sustainable economic growth in the Philippines. The BSP also aims to promote and preserve monetary stability and the convertibility of the national currency. Monetary Policy Instruments The BSP’s primary monetary policy instrument is its overnight reverse repurchase (RRP) or borrowing rate. Other instruments to implement the desired monetary policy stance to achieve the inflation target include (a) increasing/decreasing the reserve requirement; (b) encouraging/discouraging deposits in the special deposit account (SDA) facility by banks and trust entities of BSP‐supervised financial institutions; (c) adjusting the rediscount rate on loans extended to banking institutions on a short‐term basis against eligible collateral of banks’ borrowers; and (d) outright sales/purchases of the BSP’s holdings of government securities. Policy Target The BSP’s target for monetary policy uses the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or headline inflation rate, which is compiled and released to the public by the National Statistics Office (NSO). The policy target is set by the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC)1 in consultation with the BSP. The inflation target for 2013‐2014 was set at 4.0 percent ± 1.0 percentage point. For 2015‐2016, the medium‐term inflation target was reduced to 3.0 percent ± 1.0 percent.2 BSP’s Explanation Clauses These are the predefined set of acceptable circumstances under which an inflation‐targeting central bank may fail to achieve its inflation target. These clauses reflect the fact that there are limits to the effectiveness of monetary policy and that deviations from the inflation target may sometimes occur because of factors beyond the control of the central bank. Under the inflation targeting framework of the BSP, these exemptions include inflation pressures arising from: (a) volatility in the prices of agricultural products; (b) natural calamities or events that affect a major part of the economy; (c) volatility in the prices of oil products; and (d) significant government policy changes that directly affect prices such as changes in the tax structure, incentives, and subsidies.
1 The DBCC, created under Executive Order (E.O.) No. 232 dated 14 May 1970, is an inter‐agency committee tasked primarily to formulate the National Government's fiscal program. It is composed of the Office of the President (OP), Department of Budget and Management (DBM), National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), and the Department of Finance (DOF). The BSP sits as a resource agency.
2 The inflation target range for 2015‐2016 was announced on 13 December 2012.
v
The Monetary Board The powers and functions of the BSP, such as the conduct of monetary policy and the supervision over the banking system, are exercised by its Monetary Board, which has seven members appointed by the President of the Philippines. Starting in 2012, the Monetary Board will hold eight (8) monetary policy meetings in a year to review and decide on the stance of monetary policy. Prior to 2012, monetary policy meetings were held every six weeks while prior to July 2006, meetings were held every four weeks during the 2002 – July 2006 period.
Chairman Amando M. Tetangco, Jr. Members Cesar V. Purisima
Alfredo C. Antonio
Ignacio R. Bunye
Peter B. Favila
Felipe M. Medalla
Armando L. Suratos
The Advisory Committee The Advisory Committee was established as an integral part of the institutional setting for inflation targeting. It is tasked to deliberate, discuss, and make recommendations on monetary policy to the Monetary Board. Like the Monetary Board, the Committee will meet eight times a year (beginning in January 2012) but may also meet between regular meetings, whenever it is deemed necessary.
Chairman Amando M. Tetangco, Jr.Governor
Members3 Diwa C. Guinigundo
Deputy Governor Monetary Stability Sector
Nestor A. Espenilla, Jr. Deputy Governor Supervision and Examination Sector
Ma. Cyd N. Tuaño‐Amador
Assistant Governor Monetary Policy Sub‐Sector
Ma. Ramona GDT Santiago Assistant Governor Treasury Department
3 The Advisory Committee is supported by a Technical Secretariat composed of officers and staff from the Department of
Economic Research, Center for Monetary and Financial Policy, and the Treasury Department.
vi
2013 SCHEDULE OF MONETARY POLICY MEETINGS, INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE AND PUBLICATION OF MB HIGHLIGHTS
Period Advisory
Committee (AC) Meeting
Monetary Board (MB)
Meeting
MB Highlights Publication
Inflation Report (IR) Press Conference
2 0 1 3
Jan 18 (Fri) (AC Meeting No. 1)
24 (Thu) (MB Meeting No. 1)
10(13 Dec 2012 MB)
Feb 21
(24 Jan 2013 MB) 8 (Fri)
(Q4 2012 IR)
Mar 8 (Fri) (AC Meeting No. 2)
14 (Thu) (MB Meeting No. 2)
Apr 19 (Fri) (AC Meeting No. 3)
25 (Thu) (MB Meeting No. 3)
11(14 Mar 2013 MB)
May 23
(25 Apr 2013 MB) 10 (Fri)
(Q1 2013 IR)
Jun 7 (Fri) (AC Meeting No. 4)
13 (Thu) (MB Meeting No. 4)
Jul 19 (Fri) (AC Meeting No. 5)
25 (Thu) (MB Meeting No. 5)
11(13 Jun 2013 MB)
Aug 22
(25 Jul 2013 MB) 7 (Wed)
(Q2 2013 IR)
Sep 6 (Fri) (AC Meeting No. 6)
12 (Thu) (MB Meeting No. 6)
Oct 18 (Fri) (AC Meeting No. 7)
24 (Thu) (MB Meeting No. 7)
10(12 Sep 2013 MB)
Nov 21
(24 Oct 2013 MB) 8 (Fri)
(Q3 2013 IR)
Dec 6 (Fri) (AC Meeting No. 8)
12 (Thu) (MB Meeting No. 8)
vii
CONTENTS
Overview 1
I. Inflation and Real Sector Developments 3
Prices 3
Private Sector Economists’ Inflation Forecasts 5
Aggregate Demand and Supply 9
Aggregate Demand 9
Other Demand Indicators 10 Aggregate Supply 19
Labor Market Conditions 20
II. Monetary and Financial Market Conditions
21
Domestic Liquidity and Credit Conditions 21
Interest Rates 22
Financial Market Conditions
24
Banking System 28
Exchange Rate 30
III. Fiscal Developments IV. External Developments
33 34
V. Monetary Policy Developments
38
VI. Inflation Outlook 39
BSP Inflation Forecasts Risks to the Inflation Outlook
VII. Implications for the Monetary Policy Stance
Summary of Monetary Policy Decisions
39 42 46
48
1
OVERVIEW4
Higher food prices drive headline inflation. Year‐on‐year (y‐o‐y) headline inflation increased to 3.2 percent in Q1 2013 from the quarter‐ago and year‐ago rates of 2.9 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively. The uptick in headline inflation was due mainly to higher food prices―notably rice, meat, and vegetables―owing to tight domestic supply conditions, as well as higher prices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco products following the implementation of Republic Act (RA) No. 10351, which raised the excise tax on alcohol and tobacco products in January 2013. Meanwhile, non‐food inflation decelerated due to lower electricity rates as well as the reduction in the prices of domestic petroleum products. Similarly, core inflation rose to 3.8 percent in Q1 2013 from 3.4 percent in the previous quarter and 3.5 percent a year ago. However, two out of three alternative measures of core inflation estimated by the BSP declined during the quarter relative to the rates registered in Q4 2012. In particular, the trimmed mean and weighted median measures declined to 3.0 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively, while the net of volatile items measure increased to 3.8 percent. The number of items with inflation rates greater than the threshold of 5.0 percent also increased, but accounted for a lower proportion of the CPI basket. Domestic drivers of growth remain firm. Real GDP growth in Q4 2014 was stronger than expected at 6.8 percent, bringing the 2012 full year growth to 6.6 percent, which was higher than the government target of 5‐6 percent. Continuing strength in consumer demand, accelerated government spending, and recovery in exports of manufactured goods buoyed output growth on the demand side. Meanwhile, solid gains were recorded across the three major sectors on the production side, with services contributing more than half of Q4 growth. Recent indicators of activity also point to solid growth momentum. Business and consumer sentiment for the following quarter has turned more bullish, while vehicle and energy sales have been strong at the start of the quarter. The results of the NSO’s Monthly Integrated Survey of Selected Industries (MISSI) also indicate that the majority of establishments continued to operate above 80 percent of existing capacity. The latest purchasing managers’ index (PMI) likewise signals the steady expansion of economic activity, particularly for the manufacturing and services sectors. At the same time, election‐related spending in 2013 and the government’s planned accelerated spending program over the next several months are likely to provide a further boost to domestic demand. Global economic prospects have improved on balance, but downside risks remain. Recent developments on the external front suggest that global economic prospects continue to strengthen. The US economy grew faster in 2012, although the budget sequester continues to represent a major downside risk to growth. Prospects for Japan have also improved, lifted by incipient signs of recovery aided by the Bank of Japan’s aggressive monetary easing stance. The pace of growth in emerging markets also remains fairly robust on stable domestic demand. The JP Morgan Global All‐Industry Output Index likewise continued to signal an expansion in global economic output, rising steadily in the early part of 2013. However, the broad outlook for the euro area remains on the downside as renewed uncertainty owing largely to the fallout from events in Cyprus dampens market sentiment. The IMF expects global economic growth to strengthen further in 2013, albeit at a more gradual pace than earlier projected, with the recovery in advanced economies proceeding at different speeds while expansion in emerging markets accelerating at a steady pace. Meanwhile, global inflation is likely to be well‐contained as favorable food and fuel supply conditions are expected to limit upward pressures on commodity prices. Confidence over the country’s favorable economic prospects boosts local financial market conditions. Indications of robust economic performance along with expectations of further credit rating upgrade and ample liquidity in the financial system have helped to sustain investor sentiment in the Philippines. At the same time, stronger policy actions in advanced economies and indications of strengthening recovery in the US and China supported a broad rally in global financial markets. Partly dampening investor risk appetite however were renewed concerns over the eurozone debt crisis following the Cyprus financial debacle and political impasse in Italy. Nonetheless, the Philippine stock exchange index (PSEi) was able to post a new record high as it rose past the 6,800 benchmark, while the credit default swap (CDS) spread was broadly
4 The analyses in this report are based on information as of 31 March 2013.
2
stable to average 102 bps during the quarter. The peso likewise maintained its relative strength, buoyed by steady forex inflows from OF remittances, portfolio investments, and BPO receipts. Reflecting the strong buying interest for government securities, ample liquidity in the financial system, and investors’ search for higher‐yielding assets following the 100‐basis point (bp) reduction in the SDA rate during the quarter, secondary market yields fell across all tenors as of end‐March 2013 relative to their end‐December 2012 levels, while oversubscriptions in T‐bill auctions increased. Domestic liquidity also continued to expand steadily, buoyed by brisk credit activity, which helped provide further support to the country’s solid growth momentum. Inflation expectations remain well anchored. The mean inflation forecasts for 2013‐2015, based on the results of the BSP’s survey of private economists, were lower relative to the previous round but remained within the government’s announced 3‐5 percent target range. Analysts attributed their lower inflation forecasts largely to the sustained appreciation of the peso. Results of the March 2013 Asia Pacific Consensus forecast survey likewise pointed to a subdued inflation environment going forward. The BSP maintains policy rates, but reduces SDA rates by 100 bps. The BSP decided to keep its policy interest rates steady during its 24 January and 14 March policy meetings on the assessment of a manageable inflation outlook over the policy horizon, while the risks to the inflation outlook were deemed to be evenly balanced. The interest rate on BSP reverse repurchase (RRP) was also set at 3.50 percent for all tenors during its 14 March policy meeting. At the same time, the benign inflation outlook provided scope for the BSP to reduce the interest rates on the Special Deposit Account (SDA) facility by 50 bps each during its policy meetings in the first quarter, consistent with the BSP’s efforts to fine‐tune the operations of its monetary policy tools to enhance their effectiveness in promoting price and financial stability as well as align them with international central banking practice. The operational refinement in the SDA facility will also help enhance the ability of the BSP to ensure that liquidity remains adequate for economic activity.
Prevailing inflation and output dynamics suggest that monetary policy settings are appropriate for the time being. The latest inflation outlook remains in line with the 3‐5 percent inflation target range over the policy horizon, supported by well‐anchored inflation expectations. The risks around the inflation outlook are also considered to be broadly balanced. Downside risks to the inflation outlook continue to center on the uncertainty over the strength of the global economy and its effects on global commodity prices, particularly oil. Further appreciation of the peso is also seen to temper imported inflation. Meanwhile, upside pressures could emanate from additional petitions for utility rate adjustments with the likely increase in Mindanao power rates and a stronger‐than‐expected liquidity growth as foreign funds continue to flow into the country. Indications of firm domestic demand meanwhile suggest that the domestic economy is receiving sufficient monetary stimulus.
Prevailing and expected conditions for inflation and output thus support the case for maintaining the BSP’s policy interest rates at their current levels. The benign inflation outlook and improving growth prospects also provide BSP the scope to rationalize further its SDA facility to enhance the operational capacity and resiliency of the central bank’s monetary policy operations amid the continued surge in foreign exchange inflows. The recent efforts to fine‐tune the array of monetary policy instruments are aimed at ensuring their effectiveness in promoting the BSP's price and financial stability objectives, which are important in helping sustain the country’s economic gains. Going forward, the BSP will continue to monitor emerging price and output conditions to maintain the consistency of the monetary policy stance with its price and financial stability objective. The BSP also stands ready to employ macroprudential measures as necessary to address pre‐emptively any potential misalignments in asset prices. [On 25 April 2013, the MB decided to maintain the BSP's key policy interest rates at 3.50 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 5.50 percent for the overnight lending or repurchase (RP) facility. The reserve requirement ratios were kept steady as well. Meanwhile, the interest rates on the BSP SDA facility were reduced by 50 bps to 2.0 percent across all tenors.]
3
I. INFLATION AND REAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS
Prices Inflation increases due to higher prices of food items, alcoholic beverages, and tobacco products.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
in percent
Quarterly Headline Inflation (2006=100)
Q1 20133.2 pct
Core inflation also rises.
Inflation MeasuresQuarterly averages of year‐on‐year change
QuarterOfficial Headline
Inflation
Official Core
Inflation
Trimmed
Mean 1/
Weighted
Median 2/
Net of Volatile
Items 3/ *2011
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2013
Q1
4.6
4.5
5.0
4.8
4.7
3.2
3.1
2.9
3.5
2.9
3.2
4.3
4.0
4.3
4.4
4.5
3.7
3.5
3.7
4.1
3.4
3.8
3.8
3.3
4.0
4.0
3.8
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.3
3.1
3.0
3.1
2.9
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.6
3.2
3.2
3.0
2.7
3.6
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.6
3.4
3.0
3.3
3.9
3.4
3.81/ The trimmed mean represents the average inflation rate of the (weighted) middle 70 percent in a lowest
to‐highest ranking of year‐on‐year inflation rates for all CPI components.
2/ The weighted median represents the middle inflation rate (corresponding to a cumulative CPI weight of 50 percent) in a lowest‐to‐highest ranking of year‐on‐year inflation rates.
3/ The net of volatile items method excludes the following items: educational services, fruits and vegetables, personal services, rentals, recreational services, rice, and corn.
r/ Revised.
* The series has been recomputed using a new methodology that is aligned with NSO’s method of computing the official core inflation, which re‐weights remaining items to comprise 100 percent of the core basket after excluding non‐core items. The previous methodology retained the weights of volatile items in the CPI basket while keeping their indices constant at 100.0 from month to month.
Source: NSO, BSP estimates
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
CPI Items with Inflation Rates Above Threshold
Cumulative Weight (in %) No. of Items Above 5% Threshold
54 items
11.3
Headline and Core Inflation Y‐o‐y headline inflation increased to 3.2 percent in Q1 2013 from the quarter‐ago and year‐ago rates of 2.9 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively. The uptick in headline inflation was due mainly to higher food prices, notably rice, meat, and vegetables, as well as higher prices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco products. Non‐food inflation, on the other hand, decelerated given lower electricity rates and the reduction in the prices of domestic petroleum products. Core inflation, which excludes some food and energy items to measure generalized price pressures, rose to 3.8 percent in Q1 2013 from 3.4 percent in the previous quarter and 3.5 percent a year ago. By contrast, two out of three alternative measures of core inflation estimated by the BSP fell in Q1 2013 relative to the rates registered in the previous quarter. In particular, the trimmed mean and weighted median measures declined to 3.0 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively, from the previous quarter’s 3.1 percent and 3.0 percent. The net of volatile items measure, meanwhile, increased to 3.8 percent from 3.4 percent in Q4 2012.
The number of items with inflation rates greater than the threshold of 5.0 percent (the upper end of the 2013 inflation target) was slightly higher at 54 items from 53 in the previous quarter and 49 in Q1 2012. Nonetheless, these items accounted for a lower proportion of the CPI basket at 11.3 percent compared to the quarter‐ and year‐ago share of 13.7 percent and 23.0 percent, respectively. Grouping the CPI basket into food and non‐food components showed that more non‐food items were above the threshold. There were 37 non‐food items with inflation rates above the threshold from 36 items in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the number of food items with inflation rates higher than the threshold was steady at 17 items.
4
Higher prices of rice, meat, and vegetables drive up food inflation.
Inflation Rates for Selected Food ItemsQuarterly averages in percent (2006=100)
Commodity2011 2012 2012 2013
Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1Food and Non‐alcoholic Beverages
4.9 2.0 2.3 2.7
Food 5.0 1.9 2.2 2.7Bread and Cereals 3.3 1.8 2.5 2.6
Rice 1.9 0.1 1.6 1.7Corn 13.8 10.2 4.8 5.6
Meat 2.5 1.7 1.5 1.8Fish 8.1 6.6 5.9 5.3Milk, Cheese and Eggs 3.0 2.9 3.3 2.9Oils and Fats 24.7 8.3 ‐4.9 ‐5.8Fruit 7.1 5.2 5.2 4.9Vegetables 15.4 ‐0.2 ‐3.6 0.2Sugar, Jam, Honey ‐16.9 ‐23.4 3.7 3.1Food Products N.E.C. 3.8 2.8 2.3 3.1
Non‐alcoholic Beverages 2.7 2.8 3.6 3.7
Source of Basic Data: NSO, BSP
Slower price increases for electricity, gas, and other fuels contribute to the reduction in non‐food inflation.
Inflation Rates for Selected Non‐Food ItemsQuarterly averages in percent (2006=100)
Commodity2011 2012 2012 2013
Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1
Non‐Food 4.5 3.9 3.4 2.8
Clothing and Footwear 3.9 3.8 5.0 4.9Housing, Water, Electricity, 5.6 4.8 3.9 2.8Gas and Other Fuels
Furnishings, Household 2.4 2.2 4.8 4.9Equipment and Routine Maintenance of the House
Health 3.1 2.8 3.1 3.2Transport 6.3 4.3 1.5 0.9Communication ‐0.4 ‐0.3 0.4 0.5Recreation and Culture 1.7 2.4 2.6 2.2Education 4.8 4.8 4.4 4.4Restaurant and Miscellaneous 3.2 3.1 3.2 2.9Goods and Services
Source of Basic Data: NSO, BSP
Food Inflation Food inflation increased to 2.7 percent in Q1 2013 compared to the quarter‐ and year‐ago rates of 2.2 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively. Tight domestic supply conditions, triggered by weather‐related production disruptions, led to higher retail prices of key food items, particularly rice, meat, and vegetables. The inflation rate of rice, meat, and vegetables went up to 1.7 percent, 1.8 percent, and 0.2 percent, respectively, from the quarter‐ago rates of 1.6 percent, 1.5 percent, and ‐3.6 percent. Similarly, alcoholic beverages and tobacco inflation went up to 25.9 percent from 5.0 percent in the previous quarter following the implementation of RA No. 10351, which raised the excise tax on alcohol and tobacco products in January 2013. Non‐food inflation Non‐food inflation slowed down to 2.8 percent during the review quarter from 3.4 percent in the previous quarter and 3.9 percent a year ago. Lower inflation for electricity, gas and other fuels, and transport supported the decline in non‐food inflation. In particular, from 3.6 percent in Q4 2012, electricity, gas and other fuels inflation decelerated to 0.9 percent in Q1 2013 due to lower electricity charges and LPG prices. Similarly, transport inflation went down to 0.9 percent from 1.5 percent in the previous quarter due to slower price increases for gasoline and diesel.
5
Private Sector Economists’ Inflation Forecasts Mean inflation forecasts for 2013 to 2015 decrease.
3.7
4.6
4.44.5
4.1 4.1
3.6
3.9
3.63.5
4.14.2
3.6
4.03.9
3.8
3.8 3.7
3
4
4
5
5
6
Q1 2010 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2011 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2013
Mean Forecast fo
r Full‐ye
ar, in pe
rcent
BSP Private Sector Economists' Survey
2013 2014 2015
2015Q2 Q3 FY FY FY
1) Al‐Amanah Islamic Bank 3.20 3.00 2.90 2.90 2.902) ANZ 3.49 3.63 3.58 4.45 ‐3) Banco De Oro 3.40 3.30 3.50 3.27 3.304) Bangkok Bank 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.20 3.505) Bank of China 3.40 3.50 3.50 3.60 3.706) Bank of Commerce 3.20 3.00 3.20 ‐ ‐7) Chinabank 3.30 3.40 3.40 3.50 3.608) Chinatrust ‐ ‐ 4.10 4.00 ‐9) Credit Suisse 3.10 3.40 3.30 4.40 ‐10) Deutsche Bank ‐ ‐ 4.30 4.40 ‐11) Eastwest Bank 3.40 3.60 3.20 3.30 3.0012) HSBC 3.10 3.10 3.30 4.20 ‐13) IDEA 3.40 3.40 3.40 4.20 4.3014) JP Morgan 3.10 2.90 3.20 3.60 ‐15) Land Bank of the Phils 3.0‐3.5 3.2‐4.0 3.2‐4.0 3.5‐4.5 3.5‐4.516) Maybank 3.70 3.90 3.80 3.80 3.6017) Maybank‐ATR KimEng 3.30 3.90 4.00 5.00 5.0018) Metrobank ‐ ‐ 3.60 4.10 3.9019) Multinational Inv. Banc. 3.40 3.70 3.50 3.70 ‐20) Mizuho 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.60 3.7021) Philippine Equity Partners 3.10 3.00 3.30 3.80 ‐22) RCBC 3.0‐3.3 2.8‐3.3 3.2‐3.5 3.0‐3.5 3.0‐4.023) Robinsons Bank 2.9‐3.3 3.2‐3.5 3.2‐3.7 3.0‐4.0 3.0‐4.024) Security Bank 3.30 3.50 3.50 4.00 4.3025) Standard Chartered Bank 3.10 3.40 3.60 4.00 4.0026) Union Bank 4.00 3.70 3.90 3.80 3.70
Median Forecast 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.8 3.7Mean Forecast 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.8 3.7High 4.0 3.9 4.3 5.0 5.0Low 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9Number of observations 23 23 26 25 17
Government Target 4.0±1.0 4.0±1.0 3.0±1.0
2013 2014
Private Sector Forecasts for Inflation, March 2013Annual Percent Change
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
1.0‐2.0 2.1‐3.0 3.1‐4.0 4.1‐5.0 5.1‐6.0
Probability Distribution For Analysts' Inflation Forecasts*2013‐2015
2013 2014 2015
*Probability distributions were averages of those provided by 21 out of 26 respondents.
(Source: BSP Survey)
Results of the Q1 2013 BES indicate a smaller number of respondents anticipating inflation to increase in the current quarter.
Based on the results of the BSP’s survey of private economists for March 2013, inflation is expected to be lower and remains well within the 3‐5 percent target range for 2013‐2015. In particular, the mean inflation forecasts for 2013, 2014, and 2015 went down to 3.5 percent (from 3.6 percent), 3.8 percent (from 3.9 percent), and 3.7 percent (from 3.8 percent), respectively.5 Analysts noted the following upside risk factors, namely: election spending, the expected roll‐out of government infrastructure spending with the implementation of various projects under the private‐public partnership program (PPP), and the increase in utility rates. However, the continued appreciation of the peso was seen to temper the effects of imported inflation. Based on the probability distribution on the forecasts provided by 21 out of 26 respondents, there is a 69.6 percent chance that average inflation for 2013 could settle within 3.1‐4.0 percent, which is within the 3‐5 percent target range for the year. Likewise, results of the March 2013 Asia Pacific consensus forecasts for the country showed generally lower inflation projections for 2013 relative to the December 2012 results. Respondents expect inflation to average at 3.6 percent (from 3.7 percent) in 2013 and 3.9 percent in 2014.
Relative to the previous survey round, a smaller majority of firm respondents expects inflation to go up during the current quarter (a diffusion index of 1.1 percent in Q1 2013 from 3.3 percent in Q4 2012). Meanwhile, more respondents expect inflation to increase in the next quarter
5For Q2 2013 and Q3 2013, inflation is estimated to be at 3.3 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively.
6
Results of the Q1 2013 CES show that consumers expect a higher inflation over the next 12 months.
(9.0 percent in Q1 2013 from 5.2 percent in Q4 2012). Consumers project inflation to accelerate over the next 12 months. In particular, respondents anticipate inflation to inch up to 7.9 percent from 7.0 percent in the previous survey round. Consumers expect higher inflation for the following items: light (from 9.7 percent to 11.5 percent); house rent (from 4.4 percent to 6.2 percent); and water (from 6.5 percent to 8.0 percent).
International oil prices rise relative to previous quarter’s level.
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Price in US dollars per barrel
Spot and Estimated Future Prices of Dubai Crude Oil*
*Futures prices derived using Brent crude futures data.
31 December 2012
28 March 20130
Forecasts for 2013 global oil demand are steady.
Energy Prices The average price of Dubai crude oil advanced quarter‐on‐quarter (q‐o‐q) in Q1 2013 following the release of favorable economic data, namely: the rebound in China’s export growth,6 improved consumer confidence in Germany and business sentiment in South Korea, and the expansion of US hiring and manufacturing.7 The announcement of the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) that it will maintain its asset‐purchase program to boost the US economy also supported oil prices. Global energy authorities have maintained their 2013 forecasts for global oil demand in March 2013 relative to their December 2012 projections. In March 2013, the Energy Information Agency (EIA)8 and the International Energy Agency (IEA)9 projected global demand for 2013 to increase by 1.0 million barrels per day (mmbd) and 0.8 mmbd, respectively, the same as in the previous quarter. Likewise, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)10maintained its 2013 oil demand forecast to increase by 0.8 mmbd during the same period. The bulk of the projected increase in world oil consumption over the next two years is still expected to come from non‐OECD11 regions, particularly China, and Latin America. The estimated futures prices of Dubai crude oil in Q1 2013, which are based on movements in Brent crude oil futures, showed a steady path for 2013
6In December, China’s export growth more than quadrupled from the previous month’s level to 14 percent. 7According to the US Labor Department, US payrolls rose by 157,000 in January and the US Institute for Supply Management’s factory index reached a nine‐month high. 8 EIA, March 2013 Short‐Term Energy Outlook, www.eia.doe.gov 9 IEA, March 2013 Oil Market Report, www.iea.org 10 OPEC, March 2013 Monthly Oil Market Report, www.opec.org 11 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
7
Local gasoline pump prices decline.
Domestic Retail Pump Prices (peso/liter)*End‐quarter prices
Quarter Gasoline** Kerosene Diesel LPG
2011Q1 54.60 53.11 47.10 37.27Q2
Q3
Q4
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2013
Q1
54.65
56.45
53.83
58.45
47.95
54.50
53.00
51.45
49.77
49.51
49.43
53.85
45.50
51.45
49.80
48.45
44.20
44.05
44.89
48.70
39.80
44.90
41.55
39.85
39.22
38.46
37.68
48.70
36.64
41.34
42.03
40.21
Q‐o‐Q (1.55) (1.35) (1.70) (1.82)Y‐o‐Y (7.00) (5.40) (8.85) (8.49)
* Average retail pump price for the Big Three oil companies—Caltex, Petron, and Shell, Metro Manila prices only.
** Average price for unleaded gasoline
Source: Department of Energy (DOE)
Power rates are largely steady during the quarter.
onwards compared to the estimates in the previous quarter. In Q1 2013, domestic prices of gasoline, kerosene, diesel and LPG went down by P1.55 per liter, P1.35 per liter, P1.70 per liter, and P1.82 per liter, respectively, relative to their end‐Q4 2012 levels. Likewise, compared to year‐ago levels, domestic prices of gasoline, kerosene, diesel, and LPG prices dropped by P7.00 per liter and P5.40 per liter, P8.85 per liter and P8.49 per liter, respectively. Power Average electricity prices in Q1 2013 were generally stable at P5.41 per kilowatt hour. In January 2013, Meralco’s generation charges increased due to the high generation rate adjustment mechanism deferred accounting adjustment (GRAM DAA) of NPC to cover the difference between NPC’s allowable fuel and purchased power costs and the amount recovered through its basic generation rate for a given period. However, this was offset partly by lower power rates from the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) and Independent Power Producers (IPPs) as power plants improved their dispatch levels. In February and March 2013, Meralco customers enjoyed a reduction in their electricity expenses resulting from lower power rates contracted by Meralco with its new Power Supply Agreements (PSAs). At the same time, the power requirements sourced by Meralco from IPPs and other power generating companies decreased, offsetting the 19.38 centavo per kWh increase in PSALM’s universal charge. Meanwhile, potential sources of upside pressures on electricity charges remain arising from Energy Regulatory Commission’s (ERC) approval of Power Sector Assets & Liabilities Management (PSALM) Corporation’s petition to recover stranded debt and contract costs through an
8
increase in the universal charge as well as the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines’ (NGCP) petitions to recover the costs of repair on damages caused by force majeure events such as the bombings in Lanao del Norte in 2008, typhoons “Ondoy” and “Pepeng” in 2009, and “Basyang” and Juan in 2010. In addition, there are still pending petitions with the ERC which include: (1) Meralco’s petitions for the refund of generation over/under recoveries and for the implementation of the Maximum Average Price for 2012; (2) PSALM’s second petition with the ERC for True‐Up Adjustments of Fuel and Purchased Power Costs (TAFPPC) as well as Foreign Exchange Related Costs (TAFxA) under the Rules for the Automatic Recovery of Monthly Fuel and Purchased Power Costs and Foreign Exchange Related Costs by the NPC; (3) the NGCP’s petitions to recover connection charges and residual sub‐transmission charges (CC/RSTC) for 2011 and 2012 and the costs of repair on damages caused by force majeure events such as earthquake, flooding, landslides, and lightning incidents that struck the country in 2010‐2012; and (4) the NPC’s petitions to increase power rates in the universal charge for missionary electrification (UCME) and to recover shortfalls in UCME subsidy for CY 2010 under the True Up Mechanism with the corresponding adjustment of the UCME.
9
Aggregate Demand and Supply The Philippine economy continues to gain pace.
Q4 20126.8
Q4 20125.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q1 2009
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2010
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2011
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2012
Q2 Q3 Q4
year‐on‐year growth in percent
GDP and GNI in Real Terms
GDP GNI
Strong household consumption drives output growth.
6.9 pct
9.1 pct
-1.4 pct
‐30
‐20
‐10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Q1 2009
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2010
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2011
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2012
Q2 Q3 Q4
year‐on‐year growth in percent in real terms
Domestic Demand
HH Consumption Govt Spending Capital Formation
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 6.8 percent in Q4 2012. While slower than the 7.2 percent growth (revised) recorded in Q3 2012, this is an improvement from the 4.0 percent growth in the same period in 2011. On the expenditure side, expansion was led by household consumption and exports, which contributed 5.2 percentage points (ppts) and 3.2 ppts, respectively, to GDP growth. Meanwhile, on the production side, GDP growth was led by services, which contributed 3.8 ppts to GDP growth. Gross National Income (GNI) continued to increase, albeit at a slower pace of 5.4 percent in Q4 2012, relative to the 7.0 percent growth recorded in the previous quarter. The slowdown in the growth of GNI was due to the modest growth of the net primary income (NPI) at 0.9 percent from 6.3 percent in Q3 2012. Meanwhile, seasonally‐adjusted q‐o‐q GDP growth decelerated to 1.5 percent in Q4 2012 from 1.7 percent (revised) in Q3 2012, due largely to the slowdown in the services sector. Aggregate Demand
Household spending, accounting for almost three‐fourth of GDP, continued to expand in Q4 2012 at 6.9 percent from 6.3 percent in Q3 2012 and 6.4 percent in Q4 2011. This was supported by a generally low and stable inflation along with improved employment conditions. Growth came from the positive contribution of all sub‐items, led by food and non‐alcoholic beverages consumption (4.5 percent), miscellaneous goods and services (11.2 percent), and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (8.7 percent).
Government consumption expanded by 9.1 percent in Q4 2012, higher compared to the year‐ago rate of 7.6 percent, but lower than the quarter‐ago rate of 12.0 percent. The implementation of the last tranche of the Salary Standardization Law as well as the continued spending on a number of social protection programs, such as the conditional cash transfer, supported higher government spending.
10
Economic PerformanceAt constant 2000 pricesGrowth rate (in percent)
Sector 2011 2012Q4 Q3 Q4
By expenditure itemHousehold consumption 6.4 6.3 6.9Government consumption 7.6 12.0 9.1Capital formation ‐3.8 4.9 ‐1.4Fixed capital formation ‐2.4 9.0 10.6
Exports ‐8.2 6.7 9.1Imports ‐6.2 4.9 4.6
Source: NSCB
Other demand indicators remain firm.
Capital formation contracted by 1.4 percent in Q4 2012, a reversal of the 4.9 percent growth recorded in the previous quarter. This rate of contraction, however, is slower compared to the 3.8 percent decline in the same period in 2011. Nonetheless, construction grew robustly (19.1 percent), buoyed by the demand for office space due to the strong outlook for the BPO sector as well as increased purchases of residential properties. The 4.5 percent growth in durable equipment was also offset by the lower accumulation in changes in inventories.12 Net exports’ contribution remained positive in Q4 2012. Total exports continued to grow at 9.1 percent from the quarter‐ and year‐ago rates of 6.7 percent and ‐8.2 percent, respectively, due to the expansion in both exports of goods (10.2 percent) and services (5.5 percent). The growth in exports of goods was primarily driven by the rebound in electronic exports (10.0 percent), while exports of services increased on account of higher miscellaneous services (3.3 percent) and travel (19.0 percent). Similarly, total imports growth recovered to 4.6 percent from a 6.2 percent contraction in Q4 2011. Imports of transport equipment (35.9 percent) boosted the growth of imports of goods (3.1 percent), while travel (9.8 percent) and miscellaneous services (21.2 percent) drove the increase in imports of services (9.5 percent). Other Demand Indicators Recent indicators of activity point to solid growth momentum going forward. PMI readings for the review quarter continued to indicate broadly favorable conditions in the manufacturing, retail/wholesale, and services sectors. Similarly, motor vehicle sales have been strong during the quarter while energy sales increased further, driven by higher consumption from industrial and commercial sectors. Measures of consumer and business sentiment turned bullish for the next quarter and the year ahead. Growth is also likely to be supported by election‐related spending and the government’s accelerated spending program.
12 Total inventories amounted to P46.4 billion in end‐2012, lower compared to P84.4 billion in 2011.
11
Implied land values trend higher.
Office vacancy rates decrease. Residential vacancy rates also decline.
Property Prices Land Values, Metro Manila
Data from Colliers International indicated that implied land values13 in the Makati CBD and Ortigas Center increased in Q4 2012 from the quarter‐ and year‐ago levels. Implied land values in the Makati CBD reached P291,825/sq.m. in Q4 2012, higher by 0.9 percent and 5.0 percent relative to the levels recorded in Q3 2012 and Q4 2011, respectively. Similarly, implied land values in the Ortigas Center rose by 1.0 percent q‐o‐q and 4.0 percent y‐o‐y to P134,005/sq.m. Land values are presently at about 68‐69 percent of their 1997 levels in nominal terms, but only about 32‐33 percent of their 1997 levels in real terms. Vacancy Rates, Metro Manila The monthly office vacancy rate in the Makati CBD stood at 3.5 percent in Q4 2012, representing a slight decline from the previous quarter level of 3.6 percent. Similarly, vacancy rate in Q4 2012 was lower than the 4.1 percent recorded a year ago. Overall vacancy rate declined as vacancy rates in Premium and Grade B offices dropped. The residential vacancy rate in the Makati CBD at 10.0 percent in Q4 2012 was also lower than the previous quarter and Q4 2011 levels. Residential vacancy rates dropped due to high demand for both the luxury condominium and lower grade condominium segments.
13 In the absence of reported closed transactions, implied land values based on trends are used by Colliers International to monitor prices.
12
Office rental values inch up slightly. Residential rental values rise further. Capital values for office buildings are higher.
Rental Values, Metro Manila14 Monthly office rents in the Makati CBD reached P719/sq.m. in Q4 2012, representing a slight increase of 1.2 percent from the previous quarter.15 Similarly, monthly office rents in the Makati CBD were higher by 6.5 percent relative to Q4 2011. Office rental values in Q4 2012 remained below the 1997 levels for premium grade offices in nominal terms. In real terms, office rental values were about 41.9 percent of the comparable levels in 1997.
Monthly rents for 3‐bedroom condominium units in the Makati CBD rose to P720/sq.m. in Q4 2012 or a 1.8 percent growth from the previous quarter. Likewise, monthly rents for the 3‐bedroom segment were higher by 14.7 percent compared to the year‐ago levels. Residential rental values in Q4 2012 were above their 1997 levels in nominal terms but were only about 71.4 percent of their 1997 levels in real terms.
Jones Lang Lasalle estimates showed that average Grade A office rentals in the Makati CBD and Bonifacio Global City (BGC) reached P9,482/sq.m. per annum in Q4 2012, increasing by 1.2 percent from the previous quarter and by 3.3 percent compared to the same quarter in 2011. Office rental values continue to rise due to sustained leasing demand coming from the offshoring and outsourcing (O&O) sector. Capital Values, Metro Manila Capital values16 for office buildings in the Makati CBD were higher in nominal terms than their quarter‐ and year‐ago levels. Grade A office capital values in the Makati CBD rose to P85,963/sq.m., higher by 1.8 percent and by 5.6 percent compared to the quarter‐ and year‐ago levels, respectively. Office capital values in Q4 2012 were higher than the 1997 levels for grade A offices in nominal terms. Nevertheless, in
14 Actual rentals for housing account for 13.8 percent of the 2006‐based CPI basket. The NSO presently surveys only rentals ranging from around P300‐P10,000/month to compute rent inflation. However, the rental values discussed in this section pertain to high‐end rented properties, which may be considered as indicators of wealth and demand. 15 This was computed as the average of the rental values for the Premium, Grade A, and Grade B segments. Premium refers to office space with capital values of P75,000/sq.m. and above; Grade A, between P65,000 and P75,000/sq.m.; and Grade B, P65,000/sq.m. and below. 16 Probable price that the property would have fetched if sold on the date of the valuation. The valuation includes imputed land and building value.
13
real terms, office capital values were about 51.0 percent of the comparable levels in 1997. Capital values for luxury residential buildings in Makati CBD were also higher than their quarter‐ and year‐ago levels. Average prices for luxury residential condominium units increased by 1.6 percent q‐o‐q and 8.0 percent y‐o‐y in Q4 2012. Residential capital values in Q4 2012 were above their 1997 levels for luxury residential buildings17 in nominal terms. In real terms, residential capital values were about 57.1 percent of the comparable levels in 1997.
Vehicle sales are on an uptrend.
Vehicle Sales Overall vehicle sales from the Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines (CAMPI)18 increased further by 27.9 percent y‐o‐y in Q1 2013 relative to the 25.4 percent growth recorded in the previous quarter. This was also a turnaround from the 10.2 percent decline posted in the same period a year ago. Overall automotive sales amounted to 41,698 units compared to the 32,608 units in the same period in 2012. According to CAMPI, the strong performance of the local automotive industry could be attributed to the continuous robust growth of the economy coupled with introduction of new models in the market. Passenger car (PC) sales from CAMPI continued to post double‐digit growth of 43.3 percent y‐o‐y in Q1 2013, a turnaround from the 22.4 percent decline recorded in the previous year. PC sales accrued to 13,813 units from 9,640 units sold in Q1 2012. Likewise, commercial vehicles sales, which accounts for more than half of total car sales, expanded by 21.4 percent. This was higher than the 13.8 percent growth in the previous quarter. Commercial vehicles sold during the quarter amounted to 27,885 units from 22,968 units in the same period in 2012.
17 In terms of location, luxury residential units are located within the CBD core and have quality access to/from and have superior visibility from the main avenue. Meanwhile, in terms of general finish, luxury residential units have premium presentation and maintenance. 18 CAMPI represents the local assemblers and manufacturers of vehicle units in the Philippine automotive industry.
14
Higher consumption from commercial and industrial sectors buoys overall energy sales.
‐10
‐5
0
5
10
15
20
Q1 2008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2009
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2010
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2011
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2012
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2013
in percent
Meralco Energy Sales
Q1 20132.5 pct
Capacity utilization in manufacturing remains above 80 percent.
65
70
75
80
85
90
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Monthly Average Capacity Utilization for ManufacturingIn percent
February 2013= 82.8
Source: NSO
‐35.0
‐25.0
‐15.0
‐5.0
5.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
45.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Volume of Production Value of Production
Source: NSO
Volume and Value Indices of Manufacturing ProductionIn percent
VAPI: ‐1.3 pctVOPI: 8.7 pct
Energy Sales
Meralco energy sales increased by 2.5 percent in the first two months of Q1 2013, though lower than the quarter‐ (October‐November) and year‐ago growth of 6.1 percent and 8.3 percent, respectively. The growth in overall electricity sales was driven mainly by higher consumption from commercial and industrial sectors. Electricity demand in the commercial sector was supported by the real estate services sub‐sector, specifically, business process outsourcing (BPO) and casinos. Likewise, electricity sold to the industrial sector went up by 4.3 percent during the first two months of the quarter, driven by the electrical machinery and food and beverage sub‐sectors. Capacity Utilization The average capacity utilization rate in the manufacturing sector was slightly lower in February 2013 at 82.8 percent from 83.3 percent a month ago, based on the NSO’s Monthly Integrated Survey of Selected Industries (MISSI). Among the establishments surveyed, 55 percent of the 20 major sectors continued to operate at the rate of 80 percent or more. Volume and Value of Production
Preliminary results of MISSI showed that the value of production index (VaPI) in February 2013 dropped by 1.3 percent, a reversal of the 5.8 percent growth in the previous month. Twelve major sectors contributed to the reduction in production value, of which double‐digit decreases were recorded in the VaPI of tobacco products, publishing and printing, furniture and fixtures, petroleum products, transport equipment, textiles, electrical machinery, and rubber and plastic products. Meanwhile, the volume of production index (VoPI) grew by 8.7 percent in February 2013, albeit lower compared to the previous month’s expansion of 16.6 percent. Double‐digit increases in the VoPI of five major sectors led by basic metals, leather products, chemical products, food manufacturing, and machinery except electrical contributed to the growth in production output.
15
Business outlook for the next quarter improves.
Business Expectations SurveyIndex 2012 2013
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Business Outlook Index
Current Quarter 40.5 44.5 42.5 49.5 41.5
Next Quarter 55.4 44.6 59.6 43.8 56.4
Source: BSP
Business Expectations Survey Results of the Business Expectations Survey (BES) showed a less sanguine business outlook for Q1 2013, but more buoyant sentiment for the next quarter. Overall confidence index (CI) for Q1 2013 decreased by 8.0 index points to 41.5 percent from 49.5 percent in the previous quarter.19 Similarly, business sentiment in both NCR and AONCR were less upbeat in Q1 2013, but improved in the next quarter. The respondents’ less optimistic business outlook for Q1 2013 was due to the following factors: (a) typical slowdown in business activity after the Christmas and main rice harvest seasons; (b) adverse effects of typhoon Pablo20 on crop production and other businesses in Mindanao; and (c) strong market competition. This prevailing sentiment mirrored the less sanguine business outlook in the UK, France, Singapore, and Hong Kong SAR, which was in contrast to the more buoyant views of businesses in South Korea, India, and Germany. However, the next quarter CI increased by 12.6 index points to 56.4 percent from 43.8 percent a quarter ago, indicating a more bullish business outlook in Q2 2013. Respondents’ more favorable views for the following quarter was attributed to the following reasons: (a) expected brisker business due to election‐related spending; (b) anticipated increase in demand during the secondary harvest season, graduation/ enrollment periods, and the expected rise in tourism during the summer season, and (c) business expansion particularly new projects and improvement in product lines.
19 The BES was conducted during the period 3 January‐8 February 2013 among 1,555 firms nationwide, drawn from SEC’s’ Top 7000 Corp. 20 Typhoon Pablo which occurred in 4‐7 December 2012 caused massive destruction to houses, public infrastructure, and farm lands as well as death of 1,060 residents in southern Philippines. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council estimated the total damage at P36.949 billion.
16
Consumer sentiment turns more bullish for the next quarter and the year ahead.
Consumer Expectations SurveyIndex 2012 2013
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Current Quarter ‐14.7 ‐19.5 ‐13.3 ‐10.4 ‐11.2
Next 3 months 2.8 ‐2.4 6.0 6.3 7.8
Next 12 months 11.9 10.0 16.2 16.8 18.6
Source: BSP
Consumer Expectations Survey Results of the Consumer Expectations Survey21 point to broadly steady consumer sentiment for the current quarter, but more bullish expectations for the next quarter and the year ahead. Consumer confidence index (CI) in Q1 2013 was generally steady at ‐11.2 percent from ‐10.4 percent in Q4 2012. The consumers’ steady outlook during the quarter was due to the perceived availability of jobs; increasing investment inflows; stable prices of goods; and higher salary. Albeit the prevailing favorable macroeconomic and family financial conditions, consumer confidence was weighed down slightly by the damages to infrastructure, agriculture and private properties in Mindanao caused by typhoon Pablo. The stable sentiment of consumers in the Philippines mirrored the outlook of consumers in Germany, the United Kingdom, and South Korea. Meanwhile, the outlook of those in the United States, Australia, Japan, and Thailand improved considerably. Consumer sentiments turned more bullish for Q2 2013 (from 6.3 percent to 7.8 percent) and the year ahead (from 16.8 percent to 18.5 percent) as the number of respondents with positive outlook increased. The consumers’ increased optimism was driven by expected additional family income, increasing employment opportunities, improvement in business conditions, and higher investments.
PMI shows continuous expansion in economic activity.
Purchasing Managers’ Index22
Results from the PMI survey suggest that the Philippine economy is still in expansion phase in March 2013. Composite PMI in March remained firmly above the 50‐threshold23 at 58.7, higher than the 57.6 recorded as of December 2012. This was, however, slightly lower than the year‐ago level of 61.0. The increase was brought about
21 The survey was conducted during the period 21 January – 1 February among 5,494 households, of which 48.5 percent were from the NCR and 51.5 percent from the AONCR. 22 PMI Philippines is sourced from the Foundation of the Society of Fellows in Supply Management, Inc. (SOFSM), the advocacy arm of the Philippines Institute for Supply Management (PISM). 23 The actual formula used to calculate the PMI assigns weights to each common element and then multiplies them by 1.0 for improvement, 0.5 for no change, and 0 for deterioration. As a result, an index above 50 indicates economic expansion, and an index below 50 implies a contraction. PMI surveys are conducted on the last week of the month.
17
58.7
62.6
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75Jan‐11
Feb‐11
Mar‐11
Apr‐11
May‐11
Jun‐11
Jul‐1
1
Aug
‐11
Sep‐11
Oct‐11
Nov
‐11
Dec‐11
Jan‐12
Feb‐12
Mar‐12
Apr‐12
May‐12
Jun‐12
Jul‐1
2
Aug
‐12
Sep‐12
Oct‐12
Nov
‐12
Dec‐12
Jan‐13
Feb‐13
Mar‐13
Consolidated PMI Manufacturing
Retail/Wholesale Services
Purchasing Manager's Index
57.1
54.1
mainly by the expansion in manufacturing as well as services sectors.
Manufacturing PMI continued to expand in March 2013 at 57.1, higher than the 47.9 posted in December 2012, albeit lower than the 58.1 posted in the same period a year ago. Major indicators of the manufacturing PMI showed an expansion. In particular, new orders, production, employment, and inventories all posted higher index, implying that companies are preparing for the summer season. Some of the reasons cited by the respondents are increased demand from consumers and new products. Meanwhile, majority of the sample of interviewed manufacturing companies indicated unchanged business conditions. Around 35 percent of the respondents noted that company performance is on an upturn while only 10 percent of the respondents said that their companies experienced a downturn. Likewise, PMI Services in March 2013 went up to 62.6, firmly above the 50‐threshold, but lower than the 64.7 posted in December 2012 and 64.7 in the same period a year ago. The continued expansion of the services PMI can be attributed to the start of the summer season along with election period. Nonetheless, the survey to service firms showed that 41 percent experienced an expansion with regard to business activity while only five percent experienced a downturn. The remaining 54 percent indicated unchanged performance. The survey of retailers and wholesalers (R/W) remained above the 50‐threshold at 54.1 in March 2013 from 57.8 in December 2012. This was however lower than the year‐ago R/W PMI of 60.4 as all major indicators recorded slightly slower expansion. Among the five indices, only employment recorded faster expansion, which reflected the slight slowdown in business activity with the start of the summer season. Some of the respondents stated that their main market are schools. Meanwhile, more than half of the respondents indicated that business conditions were unchanged while 31 percent of managers were optimistic.
18
Merchandise exports increase further on manufactures.
Exports of Goods (BOP data)Growth rate (in percent)
Commodity Group2012
Q3 Q4
Coconut products ‐24.2 ‐1.5
Sugar and Products ‐81.2 ‐66.0
Fruits and Vegetables 17.0 27.1
Other Agro‐based products ‐20.3 ‐16..5
Forest products 40.0 ‐16.7
Mineral products ‐31.7 1.5
Petroleum products ‐44.1 66.7
Manufactures 35.3 34.9
Special transactions ‐88.2 ‐67.7
Total Exports, as per NSO 1/
Foreign Trade Statistics23.1 27.2
Conceptual and coverage adjustments
200.0 312.5
Total Exports, BPM6 23.1 27.4
1/ Exclude value of goods that do not involve change in ownership such asconsigned; returned/replacement and temporarily exported/imported goods
Source: BSP
Imports of Goods (BOP data)Growth rate (in percent)
Commodity Group2012
Q3 Q4
Capital Goods ‐3.0 23.2
Raw Materials & Intermediate Goods
8.5 16.5
Mineral Fuels & Lubricants 7.8 ‐4.4
Consumer Goods 8.5 22.4
Special Transactions ‐ 416.7
Total Imports, as per NSO 1/ 6.3 13.5
Conceptual and coverage adjustments
68.7 97.8
Total Imports, BPM6 8.3 16.0
1/ Exclude value of goods that do not involve change inownership such as consigned; returned/replacement andtemporarily exported/imported goods
Source: BSP
External Demand Exports Total exports of goods based on the BOP24 rose by 27.4 percent in Q4 2012, growing more rapidly compared to the growth in the previous quarter of 23.1 percent. This brings the 2012 export growth to 20.9 percent. The export performance was supported mainly by higher shipments of manufactures. Exports of manufactures were led by electronic products (including other electronics) as semiconductors industry recovered during the review quarter owing to increased demand from Japan and the Asia Pacific region. Book‐to‐bill ratio25 of semiconductors improved to 0.92 in December 2012 relative to 0.85 in December 2011. Another contributor to export growth is earnings from machinery and transport equipment, which increased by 81.4 percent, due to higher demand for apparatus for pulling monocrystal semiconductor boules and other motors from markets in Asia, US, and the UK. Imports Based on the BOP data, imports of goods expanded by 11.3 percent in 2012. On a quarterly basis, imports of goods went up by 16.0 percent y‐o‐y to US$15.7 billion in Q4 2012. Except for mineral fuels and lubricants, all major commodity groups posted y‐o‐y increments during the review quarter. In particular, imports of raw materials and intermediate goods rose by 16.5 percent as the continued recovery of electronics boosted purchases of materials/accessories for the manufacture of electronic equipment. Capital goods also posted a marked increase of 23.2 percent as the refleeting program of two local airline firms resulted in higher inward shipments of aircraft, ships, and boats (268.1 percent). Lastly, higher procurement of passenger cars and motorized cycles, home appliances and miscellaneous manufactures supported the growth in consumer goods.
24 Based on the BPM6 concept (i.e., excluding from the NSO foreign trade figures those goods that did not change in ownership such goods on consignment). 25 Book‐to‐bill ratio is the ratio of three‐month moving average bookings to three‐month moving average shipments.
19
The services sector remains the main driver of output growth on the production side.
4.7 pct
6.9 pct
7.5 pct
‐10
‐5
0
5
10
15
20
Q1 2009
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2010
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2011
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2012
Q2 Q3 Q4
year‐on‐year growth in percent in rea
l terms
GDP, Production Side
Agriculture Industry Services
Economic PerformanceAt constant 2000 pricesGrowth rate (in percent)
Sector 2011 2012Q4 Q3 Q4
By industrial originAgri, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing ‐2.5 4.2 4.7Agriculture and Forestry ‐2.0 5.1 5.1Fishing ‐4.8 0.0 3.3
Industry 3.4 7.6 7.5Mining and quarrying ‐16.3 ‐1.8 9.6Manufacturing 3.3 5.8 5.6Construction 8.1 20.6 18.4Electricity, gas and water supply 2.9 2.7 3.7
Services 5.9 7.5 6.9Transport., Storage, & Comm. 4.1 9.4 8.1Trade 3.4 8.2 6.4Finance 1.5 8.6 7.2Real estate, Rent, & Bus. Act. 13.6 7.9 7.7Government services 5.2 4.3 6.1Other services 7.5 5.6 6.0
Source: NSCB
Aggregate Supply The services sector, which comprised 55.6 percent of GDP, expanded by 6.9 percent in Q4 2012 from 7.5 percent in Q3 2012 and 5.9 percent in Q4 2011. The growth of the services sector was propelled by the expansion in all sub‐sectors, led by trade and repair of motor vehicles, personal and household goods (6.4 percent), real estate, renting and other business activities26 (7.7 percent), other services (6.0 percent), and transport, storage and communication (8.1 percent). The industry sector increased by 7.5 percent in Q4 2012, broadly matching the growth in the previous quarter but higher than the 3.4 percent growth recorded in Q4 2011. The sector, which contributed 2.4 ppts to GDP growth, was primarily driven by manufacturing (5.6 percent) and construction (18.4 percent). Growth of mining and quarrying rebounded to 9.6 percent in Q4 2012 following four consecutive quarters of decline. The growth of mining and quarrying was driven largely by the increase in nickel mining (33.5 percent), other non‐metallic mining (24.8 percent), and stone quarrying, clay and sandpits (12.9 percent). The growth of agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishery (AHFF) sector continued to accelerate at 4.7 percent in Q4 2012, attributed mainly to improved agricultural production. Palay and sugarcane production increased by 10.2 percent and 18.9 percent, respectively, due to expansion of harvest areas, yield improvement, and sufficient use of irrigation and fertilizers. In addition, output from the fishing sub‐sector rebounded to 3.3 percent from eight consecutive quarters of decline if not stagnant growth. This was due to increased production as a result of the lifting of tuna fishing ban and higher demand for milkfish and tilapia.
26 Real estate, renting and other business activities sector includes BPO.
20
Labor Market Conditions
Unemployment rate decreases y‐o‐y.
0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
in percent
Unemployment and Underemployment
Unemployment Underemployment
January 201320.9 pct
January 20137.1 pct
Based on the preliminary results of the January 2013 Labor Force Survey, the unemployment rate was estimated at 7.1 percent, slightly lower than the 7.2 percent registered in January 2012, but higher than the 6.8 percent in October 2012. Meanwhile, the proportion of underemployed to total employed persons was higher at 20.9 percent in January 2013 from 18.8 percent in the same period last year and 19.0 percent in October 2012.27 The number of employed persons went up by 1.6 percent y‐o‐y in January 2013 to 37.9 million, driven largely by the increase in employment in the services sector. The lower employment growth in the agriculture sector (‐4.6 percent) curbed the increase in both the services (4.1 percent) and industry sectors (6.4 percent). The agriculture sector accounted for 30.4 percent of the total employed persons, while the services and industry sectors employed 54.1 percent and 15.5 percent, respectively. In terms of major occupation groups, the y‐o‐y increase in the employment level could be traced largely to higher number of employed officials of government and special interest organizations and laborers.
27 Underemployed persons include all employed persons who express the desire to have additional hours of work in their present job or an additional job, or to have a new job with longer working hours. Visibly underemployed persons are those who work for less than 40 hours during the reference period and want additional hours of work.
21
II. MONETARY AND FINANCIAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Domestic Liquidity and Credit Conditions Domestic liquidity continues to increase with the sustained expansion in NDA. Credit activity also remains brisk.
Money demand or M3 grew by 9.9 percent in February 2013 from the end‐Q4 2012 growth of 10.6 percent. The growth of domestic liquidity was fueled mainly by the expansion in net domestic assets (NDA) at 19.7 percent from 19.2 percent in the previous quarter, buoyed by the sustained expansion in claims on the private sector at 14.9 percent. Claims on the public sector, however, contracted at a slower pace of 4.3 percent compared to the 14.0 percent decline in the previous quarter, as the growth in the deposits of the National Government (NG) slowed down. Meanwhile, net foreign assets (NFA) decreased further by 1.7 percent y‐o‐y in February following a decline of 0.1 percent in the previous quarter. This was due mainly to the continued contraction in banks’ NFA, as their foreign assets declined while their foreign liabilities increased. Banks’ foreign assets continued to contract due to the decline in loan receivables from foreign banks, while their foreign liabilities grew further due in part to the increase in placements and deposits made by foreign banks with their local branches. By contrast, the BSP’s NFA increased, supported by steady foreign exchange inflows from OF remittances, portfolio investments, and BPO receipts. Lending activity continued to support the country’s firm growth momentum. As of February 2013, outstanding loans of commercial banks, net of banks’ reverse repurchase (RRP) placements with the BSP, continued to increase, albeit at a slower pace of 15.1 percent y‐o‐y relative to the 16.2 percent expansion at end‐Q4 2012 and 18.7 percent increase at end‐Q1 2012. The robust growth of bank lending was driven largely by lending to the following productive sectors: real estate, renting, and business services; financial intermediation; wholesale and retail trade; manufacturing; and electricity, gas and water. Meanwhile, consumer loans registered a growth of 12.0 percent as of February 2013,
22
slower than the 14.1 percent increase at end‐Q4 2012 and the 18.5 percent expansion at end‐Q1 2012.
Interest Rates T‐bill rates continue to fall.
0
1
2
3
4
5
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
91‐day T‐bill Rate 182‐day T‐bill Rate 364‐day T‐bill Rate 2011
Treasury Bill Rates
2010 2012
in percent
2013
The yield curve shifts downward.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
3Mo 6Mo 1Yr 2Yr 3yr 4Yr 5Yr 7Yr 10Yr 20Yr 25Yr
Mar 2012 Jun 2012 Sep 2012 Dec 2012 Mar 2013
Yields of Government Securities in the Secondary Market
Maturity
in percent
Primary Interest Rates In Q1 2013, the average 91‐day, 182‐day, and 364‐day T‐bill rates in the primary market declined further to 0.06 percent, 0.30 percent, and 0.70 percent, respectively, from 0.34 percent, 0.68 percent, and 0.83 percent in Q4 2012. T‐bill rates fell on strong demand for government securities on the back of the country’s strong macroeconomic fundamentals and benign inflation outlook. The high level of liquidity in the financial system likewise supported the decline in T‐bill rates. Yield Curve Secondary market yields of government securities (GS) were lower as of end‐March 2013 relative to the end‐December 2012 levels. Strong buying interest for GS resulted in low debt paper yields amid sustained positive investor sentiment supported by the country’s favorable economic prospects, low inflation outturns (i.e., December 2012 and February 2013), and ample market liquidity. The reductions in the Special Deposit Account (SDA) rates in January and March 2013 and the 27 March 2013 Fitch Ratings upgrade of the country’s long‐term foreign credit to investment grade also contributed to the decline in secondary market yields. Debt paper yields were lower by a range of 8.4 bps (3‐month GS) to 215.5 bps (20‐year GS) compared to end‐December 2012 levels. Relative to the end‐March 2012 levels, secondary market yields likewise declined across all tenors by a range of 77.3 bps (2‐year GS) to 230.7 bps (25‐year GS).
23
Interest rate differentials turn negative.
‐50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
RP 91‐day T‐bill vs. US 90‐day LIBOR (before tax) RP 91‐day T‐bill vs. US 90‐day T‐bill (before tax)
RP 91‐day T‐bill vs. US 90‐day LIBOR (after tax) RP 91‐day T‐bill vs. US 90‐day T‐bill (after tax)
Interest Rate Differentials
2010 2011 2012
quarterly
ave
rages; in basis points
2013
‐1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
BSP RRP Rate US Federal Funds Target Rate
2010 2011 2012
BSP RRP Rate and US Federal Funds Target Rate
in percent
2013
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Risk‐Adjusted Differentials
2010 2011 2012
in basis points
2013
Interest Rate Differentials The differentials between domestic and US interest rates, gross and net of tax, continued to narrow in Q1 2013 relative to the previous quarter. The larger decline in the domestic interest rate relative to the foreign interest rates led to a negative after tax differential between the RP 91‐day T‐bill rate and the US 90‐day T‐bill and a wider negative after‐tax differential between the RP 91‐day T‐bill rate and the US 90‐day LIBOR. The average 91‐day RP T‐bill rate went down by 26 bps q‐o‐q, while the average US 90‐day T‐bill rate and US 90‐day LIBOR decreased by 5 bps and 3 bps, respectively. The domestic interest rate fell during the quarter on the back of strong macroeconomic fundamentals, benign inflation outlook, positive investor sentiment, and ample liquidity in the financial market, supported by the BSP’s decision to reduce SDA rates by 100 bps during the quarter. Meanwhile, the decline in US interest rates was driven largely by the release of favorable economic reports during the quarter, such as the US manufacturing data in February 2013, unemployment rate which fell to its lowest since December 2008 in February 2013, the lower‐than expected US trade deficit, and the increase in factory orders of 3.0 percent from 1.9 percent in January. The 1 February 2013 US Fed announcement to continue its bond‐buying program and keep its policy rate at near zero until the unemployment rate falls to 6.5 percent also contributed to the further decline in the US interest rates. The positive differential between the BSP's policy interest rate (overnight borrowing or RRP rate) and the US federal funds target rate was unchanged at 325 bps as of end‐Q1 2013, as the policy settings for both central banks were kept steady. Adjusted for the risk premium,28 the spread between the two policy rates declined further to 216 bps in end‐March 2013 from 232 bps in end‐December 2012. This development may be traced to the 16‐bp rise in the risk premium given the 0.21 ppt increase in the
28 The difference between the 10‐year ROP note and the 10‐year US Treasury note is used as proxy for the risk premium.
24
Real lending rate declines.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12010
Philippines' Real Lending Rate
2011 2012
in percent
2013
10‐year RP yield relative to the 0.05 ppt rise in the 10‐year US yield. ROP bond yields edged higher due to heavy supply of new issues in Asian credit markets. US Treasury bonds yields also increased after investors shifted to higher‐yielding and riskier assets such as equities, thereby reducing the safe‐haven appeal of US government debt following an approved deal that prevented automatic fiscal tightening in the US. Market sentiment also improved after the European Central Bank (ECB) reported that European Banks have been repaying emergency loans at a faster‐than‐expected pace, lowering demand for US treasuries. The real lending rate—measured as the difference between the average bank lending rate and inflation—declined to 2.8 percent in March 2013 from 3.5 percent in December 2012. This was due to the 40‐bp decline in the average bank lending rate combined with the 30‐bp rise in the inflation rate. The average bank lending rate fell to 6.0 percent in March 2013 from 6.4 percent in December 2012, while the inflation rate rose to 3.2 percent from 2.9 percent. The real lending rate of the Philippines was the sixth highest in the sample of 10 Asian countries, with India recording the highest real lending rate at 7.7 percent and Singapore the lowest at 0.5 percent.
Financial Market Conditions
Local financial market conditions continue to improve.
Indications of robust economic performance along with expectations of further credit rating upgrade and ample liquidity in the financial system have helped sustain investor sentiment in the Philippines. At the same time, stronger policy actions in advanced economies and signs of the strengthening recovery in the US and China supported a broad rally in global financial markets. Partly dampening investor risk appetite however were renewed concerns over the eurozone debt crisis following the Cyprus financial debacle and political impasse in Italy. Nonetheless, the Philippine stock exchange index (PSEi) was able to post a new record high as it rose past the 6,800 benchmark, while the credit default swap (CDS) spread was almost stable to average 102 bps during the quarter. The peso
25
The upbeat outlook on the Philippine economy boosts the local stock market.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Q1 2008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2009
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2010
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2011
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2012
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2013
inde
x po
ints
Quarterly Average PSEi
Q1 2013 6,434.0
Other stock indicators mirror the rise in the local index.
likewise maintained its relative strength, buoyed by steady forex inflows from OF remittances, portfolio investments, and BPO receipts. Stock Market The PSEi posted its 24th new record high as it rose past the 6,800 benchmark during the quarter. Investors were bullish during the period, lifted by optimism over the Philippine economy, ample liquidity arising from two downward adjustments in the BSP SDA rate, and expectations of a credit rating upgrade, which materialized in end‐March 2013.29 Overseas, signs of the strengthening US recovery and the more aggressive monetary easing by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) also helped improve local investor sentiment. However, partly dampening investors’ risk appetite were renewed concerns over the eurozone debt crisis following the Cyprus financial debacle. The PSEi rose by 15.9 percent q‐o‐q to average 6,434.0 index points during the period‐in‐review, closing the quarter 17.8 percent higher at 6,847.5 index points on 27 March 2013. Reflecting the continued uptrend in the PSEi, total stock market capitalization went up by 15.1 percent q‐o‐q or 28.3 percent y‐o‐y to reach P12.6 trillion in end‐March 2013. Daily value turnover similarly increased by 29.9 percent relative to the previous quarter and by 30.3 percent from year‐ago levels to average P10.3 trillion during the quarter. Foreign investors’ optimism over the Philippine growth outlook was also reflected in increased foreign transactions in the local market. Net foreign purchases amounted to P32.3 billion for January‐ March 2013, accounting for 49.7 percent of total transactions. Moreover, the price‐earnings ratio of listed issues continued to rise from 18.7X in December 2012 to 22.1X in March 2013, making Philippine stocks one of the most expensive in the region.
Government Securities Results of the T‐bill auctions conducted in Q1 2013 reflected strong demand for T‐bills owing to the country’s strong macroeconomic
29 Fitch Rating upgraded the country’s credit rating to BBB‐ on 27 March 2013.
26
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Q1 2008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2009
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2010
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2011
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2012
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2013
in b
illio
n pe
sos
Total Oversubscription of T‐bill Auctions
Debt spreads show mixed trends.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Q1 2008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2009
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2010
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2011
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2012
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2013
in b
asis
poin
ts
Quarterly JPMorgan EMBI+ Sovereign Bond Spreads
EMBI+Philippines136 pts
EMBI+Global264 pts
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Q1 2008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2009
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2010
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2011
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2012
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2013
in basis points
Quarterly Philippine Senior 5‐Year CDS Spreads
Phil ippines Indonesia Thailand Malaysia
performance, subdued inflation environment, and ample level of liquidity in the financial system.30 The Auction Committee awarded in full the offered amount in all of the T‐bill auctions conducted during the review quarter. In addition, during the 7 January 2013 auction, the Committee awarded an additional of P0.8 billion to the original offered amount of P2.0 billion for the 91‐day T‐bill to take advantage of the investors’ interest for the said tenor. All auctions were oversubscribed with total oversubscription amounting to P90.6 billion against the total offered amount of P45.0 billion for all auction during the quarter. This is higher than the P58.9 billion average oversubscription in the previous quarter.
Sovereign Bond and CDS Spreads
The country’s debt spreads exhibited mixed trend in the first quarter of 2013. The EMBI+Philippine spreads, or the extra yield investors demand to hold Philippine debt securities over US Treasuries, widened to 136 bps from the previous quarter’s average of 122 bps. On the other hand, the credit default swap (CDS) spread, or the cost of insuring the country’s 5‐year sovereign bonds against default, was slightly lower at 102 bps in Q1 2013 relative to 103 bps in Q4 2012. The country’s CDS spreads also dropped below 100 bps to its year’s low thus far at 93.5 bps on 8 March 2013. Against those of neighboring economies, the Philippine CDS traded lower than Indonesia’s average of 140 bps and traded closer to Thailand’s 92 bps and Malaysia’s 82 bps. Debt spreads started the year on a narrowing trend owing to the deal that postponed the potential fiscal cliff in the US, prompting markets to continue buying emerging market bonds. Firmer signs of global economic recovery, with China reporting stronger‐than‐expected December export growth, and the continued inflow of capital into Asian financial markets also supported the narrowing of spreads in the early part of the year.
However, debt spreads started to widen by mid‐
30 For January–March 2013, the Bureau of the Treasury conducted only one auction a month each for T‐bills and T‐bonds. However, the volume of offered amounts for each auction was increased to offset the fewer scheduled auction days. For T‐bills, the offered amount rose to P15.0 billion each auction from P7.5 billion in Q4 2012. Similarly, the offered amount for T‐bonds was increased to P25.0 billion from P9.0 billion.
27
January on concerns over potential rise in price increases emanating from Japan’s plan to target 2 percent inflation and its ongoing asset purchase program. Widening pressures continued in February on concerns over hot money flows towards the Asian region. Lukewarm demand for fixed income securities was observed as investors were seen preferring the equities market, which drove bond yields up and spreads to widen. Concerns over the electoral impasse in Italy also expanded debt spreads as Moody’s warned of a possible contagion if a new government is not formed immediately. Towards the end of February, widening pressures abated due to reports of better US home and consumer confidence data. The unexpectedly strong US non‐farm payrolls and the subsequent decline in the unemployment rate also contributed to the easing of debt spreads. The improving macroeconomic environment in the world’s biggest economy translated into an increase in US Treasury yields with US 10‐year bonds breaching the 2 percent level. This boosted a “risk‐on” trading of EM bonds like ROPs, which, in turn, led to a decline in the country’s bond yields and tightening in debt spreads. The narrowing trend was not sustained as spreads started to climb once again beginning mid‐March and continued towards the end of the quarter. The financial crisis in Cyprus raised fears that it could generate a contagion that would spread to peripheral economies. Widening pressures continued towards the rest of the month as the unfolding Cyprus debt crisis re‐ignited concerns about the region’s weak banks, escalating concerns of Cyprus becoming the first country to exit the euro zone.
In the domestic front, the reported increase in the country’s budget deficit to P19.5 billion in 2012 versus the previous year’s gap of P15.9 billion likewise added to the expansion in debt spreads. Meanwhile, the credit rating upgrade by Fitch on 27 March did not translate into a significant tightening of Philippine debt spreads. This reflected that expectations for a rating upgrade have already been priced‐in by market participants, limiting the scope for further gains.
28
Banking System Key banking indicators reflect sustained resiliency of the banking system.
U/KBs account for the largest share in the resource base.
The Philippine banking system remained sound in Q1 2013 marked by a growing resource base, improving non‐performing loans (NPL) ratio, which is now below its pre‐Asian crisis level, and higher loan‐loss provisioning ratios. The system’s capital adequacy ratios continued to remain comfortably above the BSP’s and the Bank for International Settlements’ (BIS) minimum requirements. Saving Mobilization Banks’ total deposits31 as of end‐February 2013 amounted to P4.4 trillion, 10.7 percent higher than the year‐ago level of P4.0 trillion. The continued growth in deposits reflected depositors’ sustained confidence in the banking system. Savings deposits registered a 10.7 percent growth, accounting for nearly half of the funding base of banks. Meanwhile, demand deposits expanded by 11.6 percent y‐o‐y, while time deposits increased by 9.9 percent from the level posted a year ago. Institutional Developments The total resources of the banking system rose by 9.3 percent to P8.4 trillion as of end‐December 2012. The increase could be traced to the growth in loans, securities, and other equities, indicative of the public’s continued trust in the banking system. U/KBs accounted for nearly 90 percent of the total resources of the banking system.
The number of banking institutions (head offices) fell to 705 as of end‐September 2012 from the quarter‐ and year‐ago levels of 712 and 730, respectively, indicating continued consolidation of banks as well as the exit of weaker players in the banking system. By banking classification, banks (head offices) consisted of 37 U/KBs, 69 thrift banks (TBs), and 599 rural banks (RBs). Meanwhile, the operating network (including branches) of the banking system increased to 9,301 in Q3 2012 from 9,207 in Q2 2012 and 8,965 during the same period a year ago, due mainly to the increase in the branches/agencies of U/KBs.
31 This refers to the total peso‐denominated deposits in the banking system.
29
Asset quality of Philippine banks improves further. Banks remain adequately capitalized, exceeding prescribed levels set by the BSP and BIS.
The banking system’s asset quality, as measured by the NPL ratio, sustained its downtrend, easing to 2.6 percent as of end‐October 2012 from 3.2 percent in the comparable period in 2011. Banks’ initiatives to improve asset quality along with prudent lending regulations helped bring the NPL ratio to below its pre‐Asian crisis level of around 3.5 percent. The low NPL ratio reflected the 8.7 percent decline in the level of NPLs combined with the 13.8 percent expansion in the banking industry’s TLP. Nonetheless, the Philippine banking system’s NPL ratio of 2.6 percent is the same as that of Thailand and higher compared to Indonesia’s 2.0 percent, Malaysia’s 2.1 percent, and South Korea’s 0.5 percent.32 The lower NPL ratios of Malaysia and South Korea could be attributed to the creation of publicly‐owned asset management companies (AMCs), which purchased the bulk of their NPLs, a practice not implemented in the Philippines. The loan exposures of banks remained adequately covered as the banking system’s NPL coverage ratio improved to 114.0 percent as of end‐October 2012 from 99.0 percent in the preceding year. The ratio was indicative of banks’ continued compliance with the loan‐loss provisioning requirements of the BSP to ensure adequate buffers against unexpected losses. Meanwhile, the CARs of the Philippine banking system continue to exceed the BSP’s minimum ratio of 10 percent and the Basel Accord’s standard ratio of 8 percent despite continued global difficulties. The system‐wide average CARs stood at 16.7 percent on solo basis and 17.6 percent on consolidated basis as of end‐December 2011, which were 0.2 percentage point and 0.3 percentage point higher than the CARs posted as of end‐September 2011. As of end‐March 2012, the U/KB banking industry average CARs stood at 16.9 percent and 18.0 percent on solo and consolidated bases, respectively, which were both higher than the previous year’s 16.4 percent and 17.4 percent.
32 Sources: Various central bank websites, IMF and financial stability reports, Indonesia (commercial banks, Q3 2012); Malaysia (commercial banks, Q3 2012); Thailand (banking system, Q1 2012); and Korea (banking system, Q4 2011).
30
Placements in SDA continue to rise.
The industry raised its capitalization to support an increase in assumed risks. Banks either retained earnings or issued capital instruments to match the rise in their risk‐weighted assets (RWAs). RWAs rose due to higher corporate and consumer loans and to investments in debt securities issued by unrated counterparties. The rise in lending can be attributed to the low interest rate environment. The Philippine banking system’s CAR on consolidated basis at 17.6 percent was higher than those of Indonesia (17.5 percent), Thailand (14.8 percent), Malaysia (17.2 percent), and South Korea (14.0 percent).33 Meanwhile, placements in the special deposit account (SDA) facility of the BSP increased by about 18.6 percent to reach P1,868.1 billion as of end‐March 2013 from the P1,574.7 billion posted during the same period a year ago.
Exchange Rate
The peso maintains relative strength.
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
Q1 2008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2009
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2010
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2011
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2012
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2013
Php/US$
Quarterly Peso‐Dollar Rate
Q1 2013 Php40.70/US$
The peso continued to appreciate in the first quarter of 2013. The peso averaged stronger at P40.70/US$1, appreciating by 1.2 percent from the previous quarter’s average of P41.19/US$1.34
On a y‐o‐y basis, the peso also appreciated by 5.8 percent from the P43.05/US$1 average in the first quarter of 2012. The robust inflows of foreign exchange remained the key drivers of the peso’s strength. Confidence on the country’s growth prospect also supported the peso. Nonetheless, uncertainties in the global economy stemming from the renewed concerns over the eurozone’s debt crisis and the “fiscal cliff” in the US tempered the peso’s gains. The peso started strong in January to average P40.73/US$1. The peso was buoyed up by the continued optimism that the country would get investment grade rating within the year and the decision of the US lawmakers to come up with a measure to avert a fiscal cliff.35 The peso further
33 Sources: Various central bank websites and financial stability reports, Indonesia (commercial banks, Q3 2012); Thailand (banking system Q1 2012); Malaysia (commercial banks, Q3 2012); and Korea (banking system, Q4 2011). 34 Dollar rates or the reciprocal of the peso‐dollar rates were used to compute for the percentage change. 35 On 2 January 2013, US lawmakers agreed on a compromise agreement wherein tax hikes will be implemented for individuals earning US$ 400,000 annually and households earning US$ 450,000 annually, while new limits will be implemented for wealthy Americans who use exemptions and deductions to reduce taxes.
31
Changes in Selected Dollar Rates
Year‐to‐dateAppr./(Depr.), in percent
28 Dec ’12* 27 Mar ‘13**
Philippine peso 6.8 0.6
Thai baht (onshore) 3.0 4.3Chinese yuan 1.0 0.3Malaysian ringgit 3.5 ‐1.4South Korean won 7.7 ‐4.2Singaporean dollar 6.1 ‐1.8New Taiwan dollar 4.3 ‐2.8Indonesian rupiah ‐5.9 0.8Japanese yen ‐10.9 ‐8.4Indian Rupee ‐3.1 1.3
Source: Bloomberg, Reuters and PDEX
• As of 4:00 p.m., 28 December 2012** As of 4:00 p.m., 27 March 2013
rallied in February, averaging P40.67/US$1 on robust foreign exchange inflows from OF remittances, export receipts, and foreign direct investments (FDI).36 However, the peso reversed its trend as it averaged lower at P40.71/US$1 in March. The peso traded lower due to increased risk aversion stemming from reignited worries about the eurozone’s debt crisis on news about radical bailout plan for Cyprus. China’s weaker‐than‐expected data on factory output and consumer spending also weighed down on the peso. On a ytd basis, the peso appreciated against the US dollar by 0.61 percent on 27 March 2013 as it closed at P40.80/US$1, moving in tandem with the rest of the Asian currencies except the Japanese yen, Korean won, New Taiwan dollar, the Singaporean dollar, and the Malaysian ringgit, which depreciated vis‐à‐vis the US dollar.37
Meanwhile, volatility, as measured by the coefficient of variation of the peso’s daily closing rates was lower at 0.26 percent in the first quarter of 2013 compared with 0.50 percent in the previous quarter.38 On a real, trade‐weighted basis, the peso lost external price competitiveness against the basket of currencies of major trading partners (MTPs) and competitor countries in the broad series during the review quarter.39 This developed as the peso’s nominal appreciation more than offset the narrowing inflation differential relative to these baskets of currencies. This resulted in an increase in the real effective exchange rate (REER) index of the peso vis‐a‐vis the MTPS and broad competitor countries by 3.0 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively.40 Meanwhile, the peso gained
36 Personal remittances from overseas Filipinos (OFs) in December 2012 expanded by 9.7 percent y‐o‐y, the highest monthly growth registered in 2012, to reach US$2.2 billion. Meanwhile, FDI registered net inflows of US$1.2 billion for January‐November 2012, slightly higher by 1.1 percent than the level posted in the comparable period in the previous year 37 Based on the last done deal in the afternoon. 38 The COV of the peso’s daily average exchange rates was used to compute for volatility in previous reports. 39 The basket of the major trading partners is composed of the currencies of US, Japan, the Euro area and the United Kingdom. The broad basket of competitor countries comprises the currencies of Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Hong Kong while the narrow basket is composed of the currencies of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand only. 40 The REER index represents the Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) index of the peso, adjusted for inflation rate differentials with the countries whose currencies comprise the NEER index basket. A decrease in the REER index indicates some gain in the external price competitiveness of the peso, while a significant increase indicates the
32
external price competitiveness against competitor countries in the narrow series as the narrowing inflation differential relative to this basket of currencies more than offset the peso’s nominal appreciation, leading to a real depreciation of the peso by 0.7 percent. On a y‐o‐y basis, the peso lost external price competitiveness against the basket of currencies of MTPs due to the combined effects of the peso’s nominal appreciation and the widening inflation differential relative to this currency basket. Similarly, the peso lost external price competitiveness against competitor countries in both the broad and narrow series as the nominal appreciation of peso more than offset the narrowing inflation differential against these baskets of competitor countries. These developments led to a real appreciation of the peso against the MTPs and competitor countries in both the broad and narrow series by 10.9 percent, 7.8 percent, and 9.6 percent, respectively.
opposite. The NEER index, meanwhile, represents the weighted average exchange rate of the peso vis‐à‐vis a basket of foreign currencies.
33
National Government Fiscal PerformanceIn billion pesos
January‐February Growth
(%)2012 2013
Surplus/(Deficit) ‐5.3 ‐31.3 491.5
Revenues 245.5 250.7 2.1
Expenditures 250.8 282.0 12.4
*Totals may not add up due to rounding
Source: BTR
The fiscal deficit in the period January‐February 2013 was P31.3 billion, P26.0 billion higher than the deficit incurred during the same period last year. Meanwhile, netting out the interest payments in the expenditures, the primary surplus during the same period amounted to P41.5 billion, 36.7 percent lower than the level recorded in the same period a year ago. Revenue collections increased by 2.1 percent to P250.7 billion in January‐February 2013, compared to P245.5 billion in the same period last year, mainly due to higher collections by the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR). The BIR and the Bureau of Customs (BOC) contributed P169.2 billion and P47.0 billion, respectively, to total revenues, increasing by 10.0 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively, compared to their levels in 2012. Revenues from other offices also went up by 12.8 percent to P18.2 billion. Meanwhile, the collections by the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) went down to P16.3 billion, 47.7 percent lower than the P31.2 billion collections in the same period in 2012. Expenditures in January‐February 2013 amounted to P282.0 billion, 12.4 percent higher than the expenditures in the same period in 2012. Excluding interest payments, total expenditures went up by 16.3 percent to P209.2 billion. Likewise, interest payments rose by 2.7 percent to reach P72.8 billion.
III. FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS
NG posts higher deficit in the first two months of 2013.
34
IV. EXTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Global economic prospects have improved but downside risks persist. Economic recovery in the US remains moderate.
Global economic prospects, on balance, have improved amid continued signs of stabilization in advanced economies (AEs) and fairly robust domestic demand in emerging markets. Monetary policy actions also continued to provide support to economic activity. However, the global growth outlook is tempered by persistent downside risks, including the budget sequestration in the US and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the debt crisis in the euro area. The JP Morgan Global All‐Industry Output Index continued to signal an expansion in global economic output, rising slightly to 53.1 in March from 52.9 in February. Growth in both manufacturing and services was underpinned by increased new businesses and rising employment. These developments, along with receding cost pressures, are seen to help sustain the growth momentum moving forward.41 Meanwhile, global inflation is expected to remain manageable as favorable food and fuel supply conditions are expected to help contain upward pressures on the prices of major commodities. The inflation environment in AEs remains to be benign given their sizeable spare capacity. In emerging economies, however, robust demand and credit conditions as well as steady foreign capital inflows present upside risks to the inflation outlook. Final estimates showed that real GDP increased by 0.4 percent q‐o‐q in Q4 2012, slower compared to the 3.1 percent growth recorded in Q3 2012. The decline reflected the downturn in private inventory investment; federal, state, and local government spending; and exports.42 Nonetheless, full‐year growth in 2012 was estimated at 2.2 percent, higher than the increase of 1.8 percent in 2011. Easier financial conditions are expected to support economic activity, but continued fiscal tightening could dampen consumer and business spending going forward.
41 JP Morgan Global Manufacturing & Services PMI, http://www.markiteconomics.com/MarkitFiles/Pages/ ViewPressRelease.aspx?ID=10974 42 Bureau of Economic Analysis. http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2012/pdf/gdp4q12_3rd.pdf.
35
The downturn in the euro area continues.
The manufacturing PMI fell to 51.3 in March from 54.2 in February, indicating a slower rate of expansion in new orders and production output. Business sentiment, however, was generally upbeat amid improved domestic demand.43 Inflation rose to 2.0 percent in February from 1.6 percent in January due mainly to the increase in the prices of gasoline. Meanwhile, unemployment remained generally steady at 7.6 percent in March from 7.7 percent in February, with job gains noted in professional and business services as well as health care. The Thomson‐Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment rose to 78.6 in March from 77.6 in February amid signs of expanding employment.44 Meanwhile, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 59.7 in March from 68.0 in February, as the budget sequester rekindled consumers’ uncertainty over the economic outlook.45 Real GDP in the euro area fell further by 0.9 percent y‐o‐y and by 0.6 percent q‐o‐q in Q4 2012.46 In Q3 2012, real GDP decreased by 0.6 percent y‐o‐y and by 0.1 percent q‐o‐q. Over the full year 2012, real GDP fell by 0.6 percent. The rate of decline in many member states, particularly Spain, Italy, Cyprus, and Portugal, accelerated in Q4 2012 from the previous quarter. The rate of contraction eased in Greece, while output growth was slower in Germany. The composite PMI for the euro area also decreased to 46.5 in March from 47.9 in February. The inflow of new orders fell at a faster pace in March than that at start of the year, as output contracted in France, Italy, and Spain while the rate of expansion in Germany stalled. Businesses were also worried over the region’s debt crisis and political instability amid the increased possibility of default by Cyprus as well as the unresolved election in Italy.47
43 Institute for Supply Management, “March 2013 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business”, 1 April 2013, http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm 44 “Confidence Continues to Improve” 29 March 2013. http://thomsonreuters.com/content/financial/pdf/i_and_a/438965/ 2013_03_29_confidence_continues_to_improve 45 “The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® Declines in March”. 26 March 2013. http://www.conference‐board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm 46 Second estimates. Eurostat news release 36/2013 dated 6 March 2013. 47 Markit Eurozone Composite PMI—final data, http://www.markiteconomics.com/MarkitFiles/Pages/ViewPressRelease.aspx?ID=10945.
36
The Japanese economy shows signs of picking up. The Chinese economy continues to recover.
Moreover, the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator for the euro area fell to 90.0 in March from 91.1 in February, driven by weaker confidence in all business sectors. Confidence among consumers was broadly stable as unemployment fears eased slightly. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was stable at 12.0 percent in February, the same rate as in January.48 Meanwhile, inflation is projected to ease to 1.7 percent in March from 1.8 percent in February due largely to slower price increases for energy items.49 After a contraction of 0.9 percent q‐o‐q in Q3 2012, real GDP growth was nil in Q4 2012. Exports recovered amid stronger external demand, particularly from the US. Domestic consumption also picked up on improving consumer sentiment.50 Moreover, the seasonally adjusted manufacturing PMI signalled a return to expansion for the first time since May 2012, rising to 50.4 in March from 48.5 in February as output rebounded due to increased domestic sales. Meanwhile, the increase in new orders was attributed largely to stronger export demand, supported by the weaker yen. Consumer prices, however, continued to decline, falling by 0.7 percent y‐o‐y in February after decreasing by 0.3 percent in the previous month. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.3 percent in February from 4.2 percent in January. Real GDP growth rose to 7.8 percent y‐o‐y in Q4 2012 from 7.4 percent in the previous quarter. The seasonally adjusted manufacturing PMI likewise improved to 51.6 in March from 50.4 in February due to the solid increase in new orders for both domestic consumption and exports. Inflation rose considerably to 3.2 percent in February from 2.0 percent in January due mainly to the increase in food prices. Prices for residence—which includes prices for utilities,
48 Eurostat news release 50/2013 dated 2 April 2013. 49 Flash estimate only. Eurostat news release 51/2013 dated 3 April 2013. 50 In particular, the number of new passenger‐car registrations jumped in Q1 2013 on a q‐o‐q basis, aided partly by the introduction of new models, after having fallen significantly following the ending of subsidies for purchasing energy‐efficient cars. (As reported in the Bank of Japan’s Monthly Report of Recent Economic and Financial Developments for April 2013)
37
Economic momentum in India appears to be easing. Major central banks maintain their monetary policy settings.
rent, and building and building decoration materials—also contributed to the increase in consumer prices. Real GDP growth fell to 4.5 percent in Q4 2012 from 5.3 percent in the previous quarter, its slowest pace in the last 15 quarters. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) noted that growth in the services sector, which has been the main driver of economic growth, has also decelerated to its slowest pace in a decade. This slowdown was likewise reflected in the recent decline in the composite PMI, which slid further to 51.4 in March from 54.2 in February and 57.5 in January amid a slower increase in new work intakes in the services sector as well as in new manufacturing orders. Meanwhile, inflation edged up to 6.8 percent in February from 6.6 percent in January due mainly to the upward adjustments to the administered prices of petroleum products. The RBI also reported that wholesale price inflation remained above the threshold level due to the continued rise in food inflation, contributing further to the challenge of anchoring inflation expectations. During the quarter, major central banks, including the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve, decided to keep their respective policy rates unchanged, citing benign inflation outlook and improved global economic conditions. At the same time, policy settings in emerging economies continued to support domestic demand while keeping a close eye on inflationary pressures and financial imbalances. By contrast, the RBI reduced its policy rates by a total of 50 bps during the quarter as inflation started to ease and economic growth remained below trend. The RBI also reduced its reserve requirement ratio in an effort to stimulate bank lending and boost economic activity.
38
V. MONETARY POLICY DEVELOPMENTS During the quarter, the BSP maintains key policy rates...
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2011 2012 2013
in percent
BSP Policy Rates
Overnight RRP Rate Overnight RP rate SDA rate
… but reduces SDA rates.
During its policy meetings on 24 January and 14 March 2013, the BSP decided to maintain its key policy interest rates at 3.50 percent for the overnight borrowing or reverse repurchase (RRP) facility and 5.50 percent for the overnight lending or repurchase (RP) facility. The interest rate on the BSP RRP was also set to 3.50 percent regardless of tenor. The reserve requirement ratios were kept steady as well. The Monetary Board’s (MB) policy rate decisions were based on its assessment that the inflation environment over the policy horizon was likely to remain manageable. Latest baseline forecasts continued to track the lower half of the 4 ± 1 percent target range for 2013 and 2014. Inflation expectations also continued to be firmly anchored. Furthermore, the risks to the inflation outlook were deemed to be evenly balanced. Although global economic activity has gained traction, lingering fiscal and financial market stresses in the advanced economies continued to dampen the broad outlook, thereby mitigating upward pressures on commodity prices. Meanwhile, pending domestic power rate adjustments and potentially stronger domestic liquidity growth due to expectations of steady foreign capital inflows posed the upside risks to the inflation outlook. Meanwhile, the BSP reduced the interest rates on the SDA facility by 50 bps each during its policy meetings in January and March 2013. By end‐March 2013, the SDA rate is set at 2.5 percent regardless of tenor. Previously, the SDA is priced at a premium over the overnight RRP. The reduction in the SDA rates is consistent with the BSP’s efforts to fine‐tune the operations of its monetary policy tools and to align them with international central banking practice. Amid manageable liquidity growth and a benign inflation environment, the operational refinement in the SDA facility was expected to enhance the ability of the BSP to ensure that liquidity remains in line with funding requirements of the economy amid the continued inflow of foreign exchange to the economy.
39
VI. INFLATION OUTLOOK
BSP Inflation Forecasts Emerging baseline forecasts indicate that inflation could settle within the inflation target range over the policy horizon.
Results of the BSP’s latest forecasting exercises showed that the full‐year average forecast for 2013 and 2014 could fall within the lower half of the 3 – 5 percent target range for both years. The latest forecast path shifted upward due mainly to higher‐than‐expected actual inflation in January and February, attributed mainly to the increase in the prices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco products following the implementation of RA No. 10351 or the Sin Tax Reform Act, higher prices of petroleum products, and upward adjustments in electricity rates during the review period. The risks to inflation outlook are seen to be broadly balanced. Uncertainties over the strength of the global economy remain the primary downside risk to inflation. At the same time, the continued appreciation of the peso could temper imported inflation. Meanwhile, additional petitions for electricity rate adjustments, particularly in Mindanao, and strong surge in liquidity due to continued foreign exchange inflows constitute the upside risks to inflation.
Demand Conditions The Philippine economy continued to grow robustly in 2012, expanding by 6.6 percent during the year, which is higher than the government target of 5 – 6 percent. Output growth was driven by household consumption and exports on the expenditure side, and the services sector on the production side. Latest available indicators likewise suggest firm growth momentum in the near‐term. Results of the February 2013 MISSI reflect continued expansion in economic activity in the review period. The VoPI in the manufacturing sector for the first two months of the year averaged 12.7 percent, significantly higher than the growth from the same period a year ago of 5.4 percent, but slightly lower than the previous quarter’s average growth of 13.7 percent. The expansion was led mainly by growth in the production of food as well as the significant increases in the production of basic metals, non‐ferrous metals,
40
chemical products, and leather products. Meanwhile, capacity utilization in the February survey was at 82.8 percent, with half of all the major manufacturing sectors registering capacity utilization of at least 80 percent. Similarly, the latest PMI suggests continued expansion in economic activity with a composite PMI of 58.7 in March, higher than the 56.7 recorded in the previous month. This was, however, slightly lower than the year‐ago level of 61 in the same period a year ago. The increase was mainly brought about the expansion in manufacturing as well as services sectors. Meralco also recorded higher energy sales in the first two months of 2013 owing to higher consumption from the industrial and commercial sectors. Results of the latest BSP business and consumer expectations surveys showed more upbeat sentiment for the quarter‐ and year‐ahead. Expectations of brisker business due to election‐related spending; anticipated increase in demand during the secondary harvest season, graduation/enrollment periods, and the expected rise in tourism during the summer season; business expansion particularly new projects and improvement in product lines supported the firms’ more favorable outlook. On the other hand, consumer confidence was higher for the current and the next quarter due to the following reasons: greater availability of jobs and more family members employed; additional income and higher salary; increasing investment inflows; improvements in infrastructure; and better governance. Moreover, the upward revision of the 2012 growth forecasts for the Philippines by the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank contributed to the upbeat sentiment of consumers. Supply Conditions Improved agricultural production supported the AHFF sector in Q4 2012 as it expanded by 4.7 percent y‐o‐y. The expansion was due mainly to strong production of palay and corn, as well as the rebound of the fishery sector after the lifting of the tuna fishing ban during the quarter. In the international market, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index
41
Output gap estimate widens slightly.
(FPI) averaged 212 points in March 2013, higher by 0.8 percent (1.7 points) from its month‐ago level, but 1.7 percent lower than the year‐ago level and 10.7 percent below its peak in February 2011. The increase in the March index was driven largely by higher dairy prices amid prolonged dry weather in New Zealand. Meanwhile, prices for the other commodity groups were broadly stable.
Meanwhile, based on its April 2013 Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, the FAO revised upwards its cereal production outlook for 2012 to 2.3 billion tons, reflecting upward adjustments for coarse grains and rice. Nonetheless, the 2012 global cereal production would still be 2 percent lower than the previous year’s record level. For 2013, world cereal production is expected to recover strongly barring unfavorable weather in major producing regions. The rebound would be driven by an expansion of plantings, brought about by attractive prices, and a recovery in yields from below‐average levels in 2012. Meanwhile, oil prices rose during the quarter following the release of favorable economic data in some advanced economies, boosting prospects of improved oil demand going forward. Oil prices increased further after the US Fed decided to maintain its economic stimulus program. Nonetheless, the EIA expects oil prices to be lower in 2013 and 2014 compared to 2012, reflecting the rising supply of liquid fuels from non‐OPEC countries.
The balance of demand and supply conditions as captured by the output gap (or the difference between actual and potential output), provides an indication of potential inflationary pressures in the near term. Inflation tends to rise (fall) when demand for goods and services exert pressure on the economy’s ability to produce goods and services, i.e., when the output gap is positive (negative). Based on the latest GDP data, preliminary estimates yielded an output gap of 1.19 percent in Q4 2012, slightly higher than the 1.12 percent (revised estimate) output gap from the previous quarter. The output gap widened as the q‐o‐q expansion in actual output outpaced the growth in potential output.
42
Key assumptions used to generate the BSP’s inflation forecasts The BSP's baseline inflation forecasts generated from the BSP’s single equation model (SEM), and the multi‐equation model (MEM) are based on the following assumptions:
(a) NG fiscal deficits for 2013 and 2014, which are consistent with the DBCC‐approved estimates;
(b) BSP’s overnight RRP rate at 3.5 percent from April 2013 to December 2014;
(c) Dubai crude oil price assumptions, which are consistent with the futures prices of oil in the international market;
(d) Annual increase in nominal wage of 6.5 percent in June 2013 and 6.2 percent in June 2014;
(e) Real GDP growth, which is endogenously‐determined in the BSP’s MEM; and
(f) Foreign exchange rate, which is endogenously‐determined in the BSP’s MEM through the purchasing power parity and interest rate parity relationships.
Risks to the Inflation Outlook
The current fan chart suggests a stable inflation path over the policy horizon.
The risks to the inflation outlook may be presented graphically through a fan chart. The fan chart depicts the probability of different inflation outcomes based on the central projection (corresponding to the baseline forecast of the BSP) and the risks surrounding the inflation outlook.
The latest projections show that inflation is expected to settle at the lower half of the target range from 2013 to 2014. Compared to the previous report, the latest fan chart presents a slight upward shift in the inflation projections over the two‐year policy horizon. The higher inflation path in the latest report could be attributed to the potential increase in domestic liquidity growth following the 100‐bps reduction in the BSP SDA rates, higher domestic output growth, and the approved adjustments in electricity rates.
43
The risks to the inflation outlook appear to be broadly balanced. The uncertainty of global economic prospects and its impact on domestic economic activity as well as the strengthening of the peso are the primary downside risks to inflation.
The latest fan chart also shows that there are uncertainties further out as shown by the widening bands of the chart over time. The BSP’s review of current price trends and risks to future inflation suggests that the risks to the inflation outlook remain evenly balanced. This assessment is captured in the latest fan chart by the broadly equal bands above and below the central projection. The continued uncertainty of global economic prospects and its impact on the domestic economy is the primary downside risk to inflation. At the same time, the strenthening of the peso could help temper the prices of imported commodities. • Measures undertaken by policymakers have
helped avert a disorderly breakup in the euro area as well as a plunge into the fiscal cliff by the US. These policy actions have paved way for some improvements in global economic activity and stabilization in global financial markets. In its April 2013 WEO, the IMF noted that the short‐term risks to growth are now more balanced as the short‐term downside risks have eased. However, medium‐term downside risks remain high. These relate mainly to adjustment fatigue in the euro area; fiscal concerns in the US and Japan; and risks from the use of unconventional monetary policies by major central banks.51
• The near‐term outlook for the peso continues to lean towards appreciation. Standard and Poor’s and Moody’s Investor Service are expected to follow Fitch Ratings’ decision to upgrade the country’s credit rating to investment grade. This could encourage more capital inflows into the country. In turn, further foreign capital flows along with the steady stream of remittances suggest continued strengthening of the peso over the near term. The stronger peso represents a downside risk to inflation as it helps reduce the cost of imported goods and services.
51 IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2013.
44
The upside pressures can emanate from potential electricity rate adjustments in Mindanao and strong surge in liquidity.
Meanwhile, the upside pressures could emanate from additional petitions for utility rate adjustments and a strong money supply growth owing to a continued surge in capital flows. • Additional electricity rate adjustment on top
of those already incorporated in the baseline forecasts remains as an upside risk to the inflation outlook. The likely increase in power rates in Mindanao poses an upside risk to inflation. The government is planning to tap modular diesel‐powered plants to remedy the power shortage in Mindanao. While the diesel plants are the quickest to acquire and set up, such plants generate electricity at a higher cost compared to coal‐fired plants.
• Foreign funds continue to flow into the country given favorable economic prospects and higher yield differentials. On the one hand, a surge in capital inflows could lead to a build‐up in liquidity and subsequently, price pressures. Excess liquidity may also lead to financial imbalances such as asset price bubbles. On the other hand, sizable capital inflows could cause an appreciation of the domestic currency, which in turn, would dampen the impact of imported inflation on domestic prices.
45
The fan chart shows the probability of various outcomes for inflation over the forecast horizon. The darkest band depicts the central projection, which corresponds to the BSP’s baseline inflation forecast. It covers 25 percent of the probability distribution. Each successive pair of bands is drawn to cover a further 25 percent of probability, until 75 percent of the probability distribution is covered. Lastly, the lightest band covers the lower and upper 90 percent of the probability distribution. The bands widen (i.e., “fan out”) as the time frame is extended, indicating increasing uncertainty about outcomes. The band in wire mesh depicts the inflation profile in the previous report. The shaded area, which measures the range of uncertainty, is based on the forecast errors from the past years. In greater detail, it can be enhanced by adjusting the level of skewness of the downside and upside shocks that could affect the inflationary process over the next two years in order to change the balance of the probability area lying above or below the central projection.
46
VII. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MONETARY POLICY STANCE
Headline inflation is projected to be within target range over the policy horizon with risks evenly balanced. The outlook for overall economic activity has remained generally positive, with growth expected to stay near or above trend over the course of the year.
Emerging baseline forecasts indicate that inflation could settle within the lower end of the 3‐5 percent target range for both 2013 and 2014. The inflation outlook is likewise supported by within‐target inflation expectations as reflected in forecast surveys of private sector economists by the BSP and by AP Consensus. The risks to the inflation outlook also remain evenly balanced. Downside risks to inflation outlook continue to stem mainly from uncertainty over the strength of the global economy, which, in turn can moderate international commodity prices, particularly oil. In addition, the outlook of a stronger peso given continued foreign exchange inflows is seen to temper imported inflation. Meanwhile, upside pressures on prices could emanate from possible power rate adjustments and the likelihood of a strong surge in capital flows that could fuel liquidity growth. Notwithstanding the uptick in inflation in Q1 2013, actual inflation outurns have been in line with forecasts. Headline inflation was slightly higher during the quarter due mainly to higher food prices, owing to tight domestic supply conditions following weather‐related production disruptions. Higher prices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco products following the RA No. 10351, which raised the excise tax on alcohol and tobacco products in January 2013 also pushed inflation up in Q1 2013. Meanwhile, non‐food inflation decelerated due to lower electricity rates as well as the reduction in the prices of domestic petroleum products. Demand indicators have been positive during the quarter providing further indication that present growth momentum could be sustained. The PMI of the manufacturing, retail/wholesale, and services sectors have continued to point to expansion while motor vehicle sales have been strong in Q1. Energy sales also continue to grow, driven by higher consumption by industrial and commercial sectors. Measures of consumer sentiment, while broadly steady for Q1, turned bullish for the next quarter and the year ahead.
47
Recent developments on the external front suggest that global economic prospects continue to improve. On balance, prevailing and expected conditions for inflation and output suggest that monetary policy settings are appropriate.
Global economic prospects, on balance, have improved amid continued signs of stabilization in AEs and fairly robust domestic demand in emerging markets. Monetary policy actions also continued to provide support to economic activity. However, the global growth outlook is tempered by persistent downside risks, including the budget sequestration in the US and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the debt crisis in the euro area. Overall developments in Q1 2013 suggest that the stance of monetary policy is appropriately calibrated given current information on hand. Favorable inflation dynamics are supported by the within‐target future inflation path, evenly balanced risks to the inflation outlook, and well‐contained inflation expectations. Leading demand indicators likewise suggest sustained buoyancy of demand at the start of the year with the 100‐bp cumulative reduction in policy rates in 2012 seen to continue to provide insurance against the risk of further weaknesses in the external economic environment. Prevailing and expected conditions for inflation and output thus support the case for maintaining the BSP’s policy interest rates at their current levels. The benign inflation outlook and improving growth prospects also provide BSP the scope to rationalize further its SDA facility to enhance the operational capacity and resiliency of the central bank’s monetary policy operations amid the continued surge in foreign exchange inflows. The recent efforts to fine‐tune the array of monetary policy instruments are aimed at ensuring their effectiveness in promoting the BSP's price and financial stability objectives, which are important in helping sustain the country’s economic gains. Going forward, the BSP will continue to monitor emerging price and output conditions to maintain the consistency of the monetary policy stance with its price and financial stability objective. The BSP also stands ready to employ macroprudential measures as necessary to address pre‐emptively any potential misalignments in asset prices.
48
SUMMARY OF MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS
EFFECTIVITY DATE LEVELS (IN %)
MONETARY POLICY DECISION RRP OVERNIGHT RP OVERNIGHT
2008 JAN 31 5.00 7.00 The Monetary Board (MB) decided to reduce by 25 basis points (bps) the BSP’s key policy interest rates to 5 percent for the overnight borrowing or reverse repurchase (RRP) facility and 7 percent for the overnight lending or repurchase (RP) facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and special deposit accounts (SDAs) were also reduced accordingly. In its assessment of macroeconomic conditions, the MB noted that the latest inflation forecasts indicated that inflation would fall within the 4.0 percent ± 1 percentage point target range in 2008 and the 3.5 ± 1 percentage point target range in 2009.
MAR 13 5.00 7.00 The MB decided to keep the BSP’s key policy interest rates at 5 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 7 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The MB also decided to implement immediately the following refinements in the SDA facility: (1) the closure of existing windows for the two‐, three‐, and six‐month tenors; and (2) the reduction of the interest rates on the remaining tenors. The interest rates on term RRPs and RPs were also left unchanged.
APR 24 5.00 7.00 The MB kept the BSP’s key policy interest rates at 5 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 7 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs and RPs were also left unchanged.
JUN 5 5.25 7.25 The MB decided to increase by 25 bps the BSP’s key policy interest rates to 5.25 percent for the RRP facility and 7.25 percent for RP facility as emerging baseline forecasts indicate a likely breach of the inflation target for 2008 along with indications that supply‐driven pressures are beginning to feed into demand. Given the early evidence of second‐round effects, the MB recognized the need to act promptly to rein in inflationary expectations. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also increased accordingly.
JUL 17 5.75 7.75 The MB increased by 50 bps the BSP’s key policy interest rates to 5.75 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 7.75 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also increased accordingly.
AUG 28 6.00 8.00 The MB increased by 25 bps the BSP’s key policy interest rates to 6.0 percent for the overnight borrowing or reverse repurchase (RRP) facility and 8.0 percent for the overnight lending or repurchase (RP) facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also increased accordingly.
OCT 6 6.00 8.00 The MB kept the BSP’s key policy interest rates unchanged at 6.0 percent for RRP facility and 8.0 percent for the RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also left unchanged.
NOV 6 6.00 8.00 The MB decided to keep the BSP’s key policy interest rates steady at 6 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 8 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also left unchanged.
49
EFFECTIVITY DATE LEVELS (IN %)
MONETARY POLICY DECISION RRP OVERNIGHT RP OVERNIGHT
DEC 18 5.50 7.50 The MB decided to reduce the BSP’s key policy interest rates by 50 bps to 5.5 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 7.5 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also adjusted accordingly. Latest baseline forecasts showed a decelerating inflation path over the policy horizon, with inflation falling within target by 2010. This outlook is supported by the downward shift in the balance of risks, following the easing of commodity prices, the moderation in inflation expectations, and the expected slowdown in economic activity.
2009 JAN 29 5.00 7.00 The MB decided to reduce the BSP’s key policy interest rates by another 50 bps to 5 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 7 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also adjusted accordingly. Latest baseline forecasts showed a decelerating inflation path over the policy horizon, with inflation falling within target by 2010. The MB based its decision on the latest inflation outlook which shows inflation falling within the target range for 2009 and 2010. The Board noted that the balance of risks to inflation is tilted to the downside due to the softening prices of commodities, the slowdown in core inflation, significantly lower inflation expectations, and moderating demand.
MAR 5 4.75 6.75 The MB decided to reduce the BSP’s key policy interest rates by 25 bps to 4.75 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 6.75 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also reduced accordingly. Given possible upside risks to inflation, notably the volatility in oil prices and in exchange rates, increases in utility rates, and potential price pressures coming from some agricultural commodities, the MB decided that a more measured adjustment of policy rates was needed.
APR 16 4.50 6.50 The MB reduced key policy rates by another 25 bps to 4.5 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 6.5 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility, effective immediately. This rate cut brings the cumulative reduction in the BSP’s key policy rates to 150 bps since December last year. The current RRP rate is the lowest since 15 May 1992. Meanwhile, the interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also reduced accordingly. In its assessment of macroeconomic conditions, the MB noted that the latest baseline inflation forecasts indicated a lower inflation path over the policy horizon, with average inflation expected to settle within the target ranges in 2009 and 2010. In addition, the MB considered that the risks to inflation are skewed to the downside given expectations of weaker global and domestic demand conditions and a low probability of a significant near‐term recovery in commodity prices.
50
EFFECTIVITY DATE LEVELS (IN %)
MONETARY POLICY DECISION RRP OVERNIGHT RP OVERNIGHT
MAY 28 4.25 6.25 The MB decided to reduce the BSP’s key policy interest rates by another 25 bps to 4.25 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 6.25 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also reduced accordingly. Baseline forecasts indicated a lower inflation path over the policy horizon, with average inflation expected to settle within the target ranges in 2009 and 2010. In addition, the Monetary Board considered that, on balance, the risks to inflation are skewed to the downside given expectations of weaker global and domestic demand conditions and a low probability of a significant near‐term recovery in commodity prices.
JUL 9 4.00 6.00 The MB decided to reduce the BSP's key policy interest rates by 25 bps to 4 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 6 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility, effective immediately. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were reduced accordingly. This is the sixth time since December 2008 that the BSP has cut its policy interest rates.
AUG 20 OCT 1 NOV 5 DEC 17
4.00
6.00
The MB kept key policy rates unchanged at 4 percent for the RRP facility and 6 percent for the overnight lending RP facility. The decision to maintain the monetary policy stance comes after a series of policy rate cuts since December 2008 totaling 200 bps and other liquidity enhancing measures.
2010
JAN 28 MAR 11 APR 22 JUN 3 JUL 15 AUG 26 OCT 7 NOV 18 DEC 29
The MB decided to keep the BSP's key policy interest rates steady at 4 percent for the RRP facility and 6 percent for the RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also left unchanged.
2011 FEB 10 4.00 6.00 The MB decided to keep the BSP’s key policy interest rates steady at 4 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 6 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also left unchanged.
MAR 24 4.25 6.25 The MB decided to increase by 25 bps the BSP’s key policy interest rates to 4.25 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 6.25 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also raised accordingly. The MB’s decision was based on signs of stronger and broadening inflation pressures as well as a further upward shift in the balance of inflation risks. International food and oil prices have continued to escalate due to the combination of sustained strong global demand and supply disruptions and constraints.
51
EFFECTIVITY DATE LEVELS (IN %)
MONETARY POLICY DECISION RRP OVERNIGHT RP OVERNIGHT
MAY 5 4.50 6.50 The MB decided to increase the BSP’s key policy interest rates by another 25 bps to 4.5 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 6.5 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also raised accordingly. Baseline inflation forecasts continue to suggest that the 3‐5 percent inflation target for 2011 remains at risk, mainly as a result of expected pressures from oil prices.
JUN 16 4.50 6.50 The MB decided to keep policy rates steady at 4.5 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 6.5 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. At the same time, the Board decided to raise the reserve requirement on deposits and deposit substitutes of all banks and non‐banks with quasi‐banking functions by one percentage point effective on Friday, 24 June 2011. The MB's decision to raise the reserve requirement is a preemptive move to counter any additional inflationary pressures from excess liquidity.
JUL 28 4.50 6.50 The MB maintained the BSP's key policy interest rates at 4.5 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 6.5 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. At the same time, the Board increased anew the reserve requirement on deposits and deposit substitutes of all banks and non‐banks with quasi‐banking functions by one percentage point effective on 5 August 2011. The MB's decision to raise the reserve requirement anew is a forward‐looking move to better manage liquidity.
SEP 8 OCT 20 DEC 1
4.50
6.50
The MB decided to keep the overnight policy rates steady. At the same time, the reserve requirement ratios were kept unchanged.
2012 JAN 19 4.25 6.25 The MB decided to reduce the BSP's key policy interest rates by 25 bps to 4.25 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 6.25 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also reduced accordingly The MB's decision is based on its assessment that the inflation outlook remains comfortably within the target range, with expectations well‐anchored and as such, allowed some scope for a reduction in policy rates to help boost economic activity and support market confidence.
FEB 2 4.25 6.25 The MB approved three operational adjustments in the BSP’s reserve requirement policy. These are the unification of the existing statutory reserve requirement and liquidity reserve requirement into a single set of reserve requirement; the non‐remuneration of the unified reserve requirement; and the exclusion of vault cash (for banks) and demand deposits (for non‐bank financial institutions with quasi‐banking functions) as eligible forms of reserve requirement compliance. Consequently, the Board also decided to reduce the reserve requirement ratio by three (3) percentage points to offset the impact on the intermediation costs of banks. The reduction will apply to the reservable liabilities of universal/commercial banks, thrift banks, rural banks, cooperative banks, and non‐bank financial institutions with quasi‐banking functions. The operational adjustments and the new reserve requirement ratios shall take effect on the reserve week beginning on 6 April 2012.
52
EFFECTIVITY DATE LEVELS (IN %)
MONETARY POLICY DECISION RRP OVERNIGHT RP OVERNIGHT
MAR 1 4.00 6.00 The MB decided to reduce the BSP's key policy interest rates by another 25 bps to 4.0 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 6.0 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also reduced accordingly. The MB is of the view that the benign inflation outlook has allowed further scope for a measured reduction in policy rates to support economic activity and reinforce confidence.
APR 19 4.00 6.00 The MB decided to keep the BSP’s key policy interest rates steady at 4 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 6 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also left unchanged.
JUN 14 4.00 6.00 The MB decided to keep the BSP’s key policy interest rates steady at 4 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 6 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also left unchanged. The MB’s decision was based on its assessment that the inflation environment remains manageable. Baseline forecasts continue to track the lower half of the 3‐5 percent target range for 2012 and 2013, while inflation expectations remain firmly anchored. At the same time, domestic macroeconomic readings have improved significantly in Q1 2012.
JUL 13 4.00 6.00 The BSP issued memorandum no. M‐2012‐034 dated 13 July 2012 on the prohibition against non‐residents from investing in the SDA facility of the BSP, wherein all banks and trust departments/entities, which are counterparties of the BSP, are required to comply with the following conditions: (1) Banks shall not invest in the SDA facility funds obtained, directly or indirectly from non‐residents and (2) investment of trust departments/entities in the SDA facility shall not be sourced directly or indirectly, from funds of non‐residents. Furthermore, a bank or trust entity were required to submit to the BSP's Treasury Department a notarized Letter of Undertaking (LOU) committing to the aforementioned conditions to qualify as a counterparty of the BSP SDA facility. In addition, the BSP reduced on the same date the spread of SDA rates over the RRP to 1/32th of a percent to fine‐tune the pricing of the facility and to be consistent with the decline in terms of global interest rates.
JUL 26 3.75 5.75 The MB decided to reduce the BSP’s key policy interest rates by 25 bps to 3.75 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 5.75 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also reduced accordingly. This is the third time in 2012 that the BSP has cut its policy rates. The MB’s decision was based on its assessment that price pressures have been receding, with risks to the inflation outlook slightly skewed to the downside. Baseline forecasts indicate that inflation is likely to settle within the lower half of the 3‐5 percent target for 2012 and 2013, as pressures on global commodity prices are seen to continue to abate amid weaker global growth prospects. At the same time, the MB is of the view that prospects for global economic activity are likely to remain weak.
53
EFFECTIVITY DATE LEVELS (IN %)
MONETARY POLICY DECISION RRP OVERNIGHT RP OVERNIGHT
SEP 13 3.75 5.75 The MB decided to keep the BSP’s key policy interest rates steady at 3.75 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 5.75 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also left unchanged. The MB’s decision was based on its assessment that the inflation environment remains benign, with the risks to the inflation outlook appearing to be broadly balanced.
OCT 25 3.50 5.50 The MB decided to reduce the BSP’s key policy interest rates by 25 bps to 3.50 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 5.50 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also reduced accordingly. This is the fourth time in 2012 that the BSP has cut its policy rates. The MB’s decision was based on its assessment that the inflation environment continued to be benign with latest baseline forecasts indicating that the future inflation path will remain within target for 2012‐2014. A rate cut would also be consistent with a symmetric response to the risk of below‐target inflation.
DEC 13 3.50 5.50 The MB decided to keep the BSP’s key policy interest rates steady at 3.50 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 5.50 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also left unchanged. The MB’s decision was based on its assessment that current monetary settings remained appropriate, as the cumulative 100‐basis‐point reduction in policy rates in 2012 continued to work its way through the economy.
2013 JAN 24 3.50 5.50 The MB decided to keep the BSP’s key policy interest rates steady at 3.50 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 5.50 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs and RPs were also maintained accordingly. The reserve requirement ratios were kept steady as well. At the same time, the MB decided to set the interest rates on the SDA facility at 3.00 percent regardless of tenor, effective immediately, consistent with the BSP’s continuing efforts to fine‐tune the operation of its monetary policy tools.
MAR 14 3.50 5.50 The MB decided to keep the BSP’s key policy interest rates steady at 3.50 percent for the RRP facility and 5.50 percent for the RP facility. The interest rate on the RRP was also set at 3.50 percent regardless of tenor. Following its previous decision to rationalize the SDA facility in January 2013, the MB further reduced the interest rates on the SDA facility by 50 bps to 2.50 percent across all tenors effective immediately. Meanwhile, the reserve requirement ratios were kept steady.
APR 25 3.50 5.50 The MB decided to keep the BSP’s key policy interest rates steady at 3.50 percent for the RRP facility and 5.50 percent for the RP facility. The interest rate on the RRP was also set at 3.50 percent regardless of tenor. The MB also further reduced the interest rates on the SDA facility by 50 bps to 2.00 percent across all tenors effective immediately. Meanwhile, the reserve requirement ratios were kept steady.
The BSP Inflation Report is published every quarter by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. The report is available as a complete document in pdf format, together with other general information about inflation targeting and the monetary policy of the BSP, on the BSP’s website:
www.bsp.gov.ph/monetary/inflation.asp If you wish to receive an electronic copy of the latest BSP Inflation Report, please send an e‐mail to [email protected]. The BSP also welcomes feedback from readers on the contents of the Inflation Report as well as suggestions on how to improve the presentation. Please send comments and suggestions to the following addresses:
By post: BSP Inflation Report
c/o Department of Economic Research Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
A. Mabini Street, Malate, Manila Philippines 1004
By e‐mail: [email protected]