Q1 2012 - Columbus Industrial
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Transcript of Q1 2012 - Columbus Industrial
PROPERTY TYPE VACANCY RATES OVER COMPLETIONS
1 5 10 15 20 25 308.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
16.0
17.0
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
Q211
Q311
Q411
Q112
(2,000,000)
(1,500,000)
(1,000,000)
(500,000)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Completions Absorptions Total Market Vacancy Rate
INDUSTRIAL TRENDS REPORTGREATER COLUMBUS REGION
www.colliers.com/columbus
Strong Leasing ContinuesINDUSTRIAL MARKET OVERVIEWThe first quarter continued the positive growth from 2011 with more than 1.2 million square feet of positive absorption. The first quarter 2012 vacancy rate of 10.9 percent is the lowest since the recession began in December 2007, when the fourth quarter 2007 vacancy rate was 10.4 percent. The majority of the largest leases occurred in the Southeast and Southwest submarkets. Innotrac took 434,000 square feet at 6360 Port Road and Shasta Beverage took 134,000 square feet at 4370 Alum Creek, both in the southeast. ALMO leased 134,000 square feet at 3750 Brookham Drive in the southwest submarket.
FORECASTS AND REFLECTION• There were two investment sales this quarter.
Duke Realty purchased both Creekside XXII ($22.2 million) and Creekside XIV ($16.7 million) together as a portfolio. The 613,000-square-foot Creekside XIV is 86 percent occupied by Exel and Tire Kingdom. The 463,000-square-foot Creekside XXII is 100 percent occupied by Genco.
• Nationwide Realty Trust purchased 862 West
3rd Avenue from Wasserstrom Ventures LLC. Tenants at the 135,000-square-foot facility include Imports Plus Automotive, Ohio Grinding & Mach Co, and Advance Sign Group.
• Target announced construction plans to expand its food distribution center in West Jefferson by 438,000 square. When completed the facility will employ an additional 100 to 150 workers. Construction will begin in second quarter 2012.
RENTAL RATES
Asking rental rates were flat for warehouse/distribution from last quarter, while R&D/Flex increased for the third quarter in a row since second quarter 2011. There are only 30 spaces of 20,000 square feet or greater in R&D/Flex, mostly occurring in the Southwest, Southeast, Union, and West submarkets. This will start to effect price soon if leasing remains strong. The change in general asking rates over the past year has been negligible.
MARKET INDICATORS
WEIGHTED AVERAGE RENTAL RATESRates for the Major Product Types
Q4
2011*
Q1
2012**
VACANCY
NET ABSORPTION
CONSTRUCTION
RENTAL RATES — — *Actual change from previous quarter
**Projected change from previous quarter
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
$2.20
$2.15
$2.10
$2.05
$2.00
$1.95
$1.90
$1.85
$1.803Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q10 4Q10
Q1 2012 | INDUSTRIAL
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
Q308
Q408
Q109
Q209
Q309
Q409
Q110
Q210
Q310
Q410
Q111
Q211
Q311
Q411
Q112
General Industrial R&D/Flex Warehouse/Dist.
REGIONAL INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICSThe Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland reports at least once a quarter in the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book about the economic activity of the fourth district, which includes the Columbus Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The Beige Book from February 2012 reported that industrial activity was up slightly or flat in the previous six weeks. Manufacturers reported that new orders and production at factories were generally stable or moderately higher during the past six weeks. Most manufacturers anticipated modest gains in demand. Capacity utilization remained below normal with little change expected in the near term.
Freight transportation had been trending higher during the previous six weeks, and during January it was above year-ago levels. Strong demand was seen in automotive, food, and shale gas producers. The expectation was for volume to grow at a moderate pace during 2012.
In April, the Beige Book reported that industrial activity grew at a modest pace since the February report. Production at factories showed a small increase during the past six weeks, and that for a majority of manufacturers output was above year-ago levels. Capacity utilization has returned to normal rates for the majority of those contacted, while inventories were consistent
with demand. Many manufacturers are reporting that they plan to increase outlays during the next several months.
Freight transport volume has been trending higher during the past few weeks. The industries driving transport demand are energy and metals. Volume is expected to continue growing at a moderate pace for the remainder of the year.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported manufacturing employment of 62,300 employees in February which was an increase of 400 employees over January. Year over year manufacturing is down by 1.6 percent. Trade, transportation and utilities employment shrank by 1,800 employees from January, with an increase of 1.1 percent year over year. Mining, logging and construction decreased by 100 employees from January and is up 7.2 percent year over year.
TENANTS IN THE MARKETThe type of tenant seen most frequently in first quarter were auto suppliers and/or parts manufacturers, recycling companies, and e-commerce distributors. There are currently at least 27 companies looking for 50,000 square feet or greater in Columbus, and at least 28 companies are looking for 15,000 to 50,000 square feet of space.
The Columbus industrial market consists of 10 suburban submarkets and the Central Business District. The total inventory for the region is 213 million square feet of space
MARKET ACTIVITY
SALES ACTIVITY
PROPERTY ADDRESS
SALES
DATE SALE PRICE SIZE SF GRANTOR GRANTEE PRICE / SF TYPE SUBMARKET
2120 Creekside Parkway Mar-12 22,216,796 613,312 Pizzuti Cos Duke Realty $36.22 Ware/Dist Southeast
4555 Creekside Parkway Mar-12 16,783,187 463,313 Pizzuti Cos Duke Realty $36.22 Ware/Dist Southeast
862 West 3rd Avenue Jan-12 6,599,700 135,242 Wasserstrom Ventures LLC Nationwide Realty Investors $48.80 Ware/Dist West
7304 Tussing Road Jan-12 3,175,000 67,725 Kittle's Bloomington LLP VSI IV Reynoldsburg, LLC $46.88 Ware/Dist Fairfield
1239-1251 Alum Creek Drive Feb-12 900,000 56,000 Doyle Properties Inc Mazz Ltd $16.07 R&D/Flex Southeast
3987 E Main Street Jan-12 750,000 44,000 Prince Hall Grand Lodge Franklin Co. Commissioners $17.05 R&D/Flex East
200 Kintner Parkway Jan-12 1,200,000 26,914 The Commander Realty LLC Universal Composite LLC $44.59 General North
Delaware
Union County
Delaware County
Licking County
North
East
CBD
West
Southwest Southeast
Fairfield County
Pickaway County
Madison County
LEASE ACTIVITY
PROPERTY ADDRESS LEASE SF LESSOR LESSEE ASKING PRICE (NNN) TYPE SUBMARKET
6360 Port Road 434,120 Exeter 6360 Port LLC Innotrac $2.95 Warehouse - Distribution Southeast
3750 Brookham Drive 134,957 Prologis ALMO $3.50 Warehouse - Distribution Southwest
4370 Alum Creek Drive 134,400 Hackman Capital Shasta Beverage $2.25 Warehouse - Distribution Southeast
6000 Green Pointe Drive 126,000 CABOT Schwartz $3.25 Bulk Warehouse Southeast
456 McCormick Boulevard 48,915 Blackstone Cap & Associates $2.25 Warehouse - Distribution East
2297 Southwest Boulevard 40,026 Industrial Southpark Owner LLC Cinco $3.10 Flex/R&D Southwest
P. 2 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT|Q12012|INDUSTRIAL|GREATERCOLUMBUSREGION
CONSTRUCTION
McGraw-HillConstruction’smostrecentreportshowedresidentialandnonresidentialfutureconstructionintheeight-countyregioncombinedfellby10percentto$115.3millionfromJanuary2012.Thisisdownfrom$127.9millioninFebruary2011.Regionalnonresidentialdevelopment,whichwasmorethandoubleresidentialdevelopmentlastyear,fellby40percenttoabout$51.7millioninFebruary.
UPDATE Market Comparisons
INDUSTRIAL MARKET
Net Absorption Construction Asking Rental Rates
SUBMARKET Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current Completions WH/Dist R&D/FlexCBD 5,706,725 699,829 12.3 (38,268) (38,268) - - $6.63
EAST 20,682,243 4,151,888 20.1 87,026 87,026 - $2.83 $6.35
FAIRFIELD 6,441,842 260,755 4.0 40,920 40,920 - $4.00 $6.90
LICKING 18,832,930 893,989 4.7 109,000 109,000 773,000 - $2.76 -
MADISON 8,148,397 - 0.0 - - - - -
NORTH 16,817,138 1,298,006 7.7 56,082 56,082 - $2.71 $5.11
NORTH DELAWARE 9,146,849 1,043,757 11.4 (15,750) (15,750) - $3.22 $6.75
PICKAWAY 3,550,850 84,250 2.4 (12,350) (12,350) - $2.48 -
SOUTHEAST 64,181,757 9,429,953 14.7 917,239 917,239 125,000 - $2.54 $3.06
SOUTHWEST 17,683,127 1,163,023 6.6 128,833 128,833 - $2.99 $3.47
UNION 6,333,817 363,905 5.7 (1,140) (1,140) - - $4.59
WEST 35,893,270 3,873,510 10.8 9,256 9,256 - $2.25 $4.28
TOTALS 213,418,945 23,262,865 10.9 1,280,848 1,280,848 898,000 - $2.59 $4.77
Net Absorption Construction Asking Rental Rates
SUBMARKET Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current Completions By Product TypeR&D/FLEX 20,280,125 2,813,464 13.9 315,796 315,796 - $4.77
GENERAL INDUSTRIAL 71,640,726 5,497,749 7.7 95,690 95,690 658,000 - $3.93
WAREHOUSE/
DISTRIBUTION
121,498,094 14,951,652 12.3 869,362 869,362 240,000 - $2.59
TOTALS 213,418,945 23,262,865 10.9 1,280,848 1,280,848 898,000 - $2.98
QUARTERLY COMPARISON AND TOTALS
Net Absorption Construction Asking Rental Rates
QUARTER, YEAR Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current Completions ($)Q4, 2011 213,215,134 24,525,213 11.5 391,728 3,478,819 968,000 175,000 $3.03
Q3, 2011 213,040,134 24,916,941 11.7 1,018,991 3,087,091 1,073,000 1,800,000 $2.96
Q2, 2011 211,235,134 25,935,932 12.3 2,430,463 2,068,100 1,910,000 - $2.80
Q1, 2011 211,688,286 28,405,746 13.4 (362,363) (362,363) 1,910,000 - $2.92
RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT|Q12012|INDUSTRIAL|GREATERCOLUMBUSREGION
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 3
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICTThe Central Business District (CBD) lost 38,000 square feet in negative absorption in the first quarter, due mostly to a vacancy at 1800 East 5th Avenue. Absorption was strong throughout 2011, and there are fewer spaces available meaning we will likely see a slow down in activity in this submarket. Only 15 percent of the spaces left are 5,000 square feet or greater.
EASTThe submarkets comprising eastern Columbus are East and Licking County. 111 Enterprise Drive in Licking leased an additional 115,000 square feet bringing the Licking submarket net quarter absorption to 119,000 square feet. Various leases were executed in the East submarket bringing the total absorption to 87,000 square feet.
Construction in the East remains high but most projects are set to close within the year. Quebec Ontario-based KDC is expected to complete its 240,000-square-foot building in spring 2012. Mississauga, Canada-based Axium Plastics will complete a 110,000-square-foot facility in spring 2012, employing 165. Construction continues on Pizzuti’s 303,000-square-foot speculative building planned for spring 2012. Sonoco is constructing a 120,000-square-foot facility and is also expected to be completed in 2012.
NORTHThe submarkets comprising northern Columbus are North and North Delaware. The North gained 56,000 square feet from numerous leases. North Delaware absorption was a negligible 15,000 square feet negative.
SOUTHEASTThe Southeast submarket drove the market with the largest positive absorption of 917,000 square feet, bringing the vacancy rate down to 14.7 percent. Warehouse/distribution prices remain the lowest on average in the Columbus market. 55 percent of the vacancies over 100,000 square feet are in the southeast and of buildings newer than 2000 the southeast is 85 percent of the market.
There were no significant vacancies this quarter, but there were six absorptions over 30,000 square feet. Innotrac leased 434,000 square feet at 6360 Port Road.
Construction continues on Pizzuti’s 125,000-square-foot facility for MBM in Groveport at 2240 Creekside Parkway.
SOUTHThe southern submarkets are Pickaway and Fairfield counties. Fairfield gained 40,000 square feet due to leasing at 380 Quarry Road. Pickaway lost a marginal 12,000 square feet.
SOUTHWESTThe Southwest submarket showed absorption of 128,000 square feet, bringing the vacancy rate down to 6.6 percent. Large leases occurred at 3750 Brookham Drive, 1621 Harmon Avenue, and 5150 Walcutt Court. 3350 Urbancrest Industrial Drive incurred a large vacancy.
WESTThe submarkets on the west side of Franklin county are West, Madison and Union. Union county lost a marginal 1,100 square feet. The west submarket had a lot of activity but ended with a marginal 9,200 square feet absorbed. 20 percent of the absorption changes occurred in the west, and none of them were over 35,000 square feet. Madison had no activity.
MARKET INTELMarket Activity Volume is the sum of the absolute value of each absorption change in the market. It tells us a little more about what exactly happened to the market behind the absorption number. The Market Activity Volume was 2,183,000 square feet, meaning that almost 80 percent of the activity this quarter was positive absorption. First quarter has a seasonal adjustment of 24 percent, meaning that in a typical year the first quarter is about 25 percent more active than the rest of the year.
There are 52 buildings with vacant contiguous space over 100,000 square feet left in the Columbus market. 14 were built since 2000 and 13 of those are warehouse/distribution. These vacancies will keep warehouse/distribution asking rates low while they last.
The low availability of R&D/Flex space over 10,000 square feet is driving the continued increase in price. In buildings built since 2000, there are only 14 buildings with vacant with contiguous space over 10,000 square feet.
Leslie HobbsMarketing and Research Manager8800 Lyra DriveSuite #150Columbus, Ohio, 43240TEL +1 614 410 5640
Jonathan BadgleyResearch Analyst175 South Third StreetSuite # 285Columbus, Ohio 43201TEL +1 614 437 4495
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This document/email has been prepared by Colliers International for advertising purposes. Colliers International statistics and data are audited annually and may result in revisions to previously reported quarterly and final year-end figures. Sources include Columbus Dispatch, Business First, Xceligent, and the Wall Street Journal.
www.colliers.com/columbus
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ColumbusRichard B. Schuen SIOR CCIMCEO | Principal | Columbus8800 Lyra DriveSuite # 150Columbus, Ohio 43240TEL +1 614 410 5612
RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT|Q12012|INDUSTRIAL|GREATERCOLUMBUSREGION