Q1 2011 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey UK€¦ · Q1 2011. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey...

SMARTJOBNO: 04170 ediTiON: Quarter12011

CLieNT: manpower

SUBJeCT: unitedkingdommeosQ111–4colourversion

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87ChARTeRhOUSeSTReeT•LONdONeC1M6hJ•TeL+44(0)2073241060

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey UK

A Manpower Research Report

Q1 2011



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Contents

UK Employment Outlook 1Regional Comparisons

Sector Comparisons

Global Employment Outlook 17International Comparisons – EMEA

International Comparisons – Americas

International Comparisons – Asia Pacific

About the Survey 27

About Manpower 29

Q1/

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UK Employment OutlookThe Manpower Employment Outlook Survey for the first quarter of 2011 was conducted by interviewing a representative sample of 2,100 employers in the UK.

All survey participants were asked, “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of March 2011 as compared to the current quarter?”

UK employers report mixed hiring intentions for Quarter 1 2011. While 10% expect to increase headcount, 10% forecast a decrease and 77% anticipate no change, resulting in a flat Net Employment Outlook of 0%.

Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment Outlook.” This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating total employment to increase, and subtracting from this the percentage expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook.

Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook has declined by two percentage points, but year-over-year it remains relatively stable.

Once the data is adjusted to account for seasonal variations, the Outlook stands at +2%, remaining relatively stable both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

From this point forward, all data discussed in the commentary is seasonally adjusted, unless stated otherwise.

Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know Net EmploymentOutlook

Seasonally AdjustedOutlook

% % % % % %

1st Quarter 2010 9 10 79 2 -1 1

2nd Quarter 2010 8 7 84 1 1 1

3rd Quarter 2010 7 5 87 1 2 1

4th Quarter 2010 12 10 75 3 2 1

1st Quarter 2011 10 10 77 3 0 2

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Net Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11

No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.


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Regional SummaryEmployers in eight of the 12 regions forecast positive headcount growth during Quarter 1 2011. The most upbeat hiring prospects are reported in the South West, where the Net Employment Outlook stands at +13%. Welsh employers report cautiously optimistic hiring plans with an Outlook of +9% and moderate headcount gains are expected in the North West, where the Outlook is +6%. Meanwhile, negative headcount growth is predicted in four regions, most notably Scotland, where the Outlook is a gloomy -12%. Employers in Northern Ireland and the North East also forecast weak hiring activity, with Outlooks of -7% and -6%, respectively.

Quarter-over-quarter, employers in four regions report stronger hiring plans. The most encouraging improvement of 18 percentage points is reported in Wales, while employers in both London and the North West report stronger hiring prospects, with Outlooks improving by

five and four percentage points, respectively. However, employers in six regions report weaker hiring intentions, with the most notable decline of eight percentage points in the North East. Year-over-year, hiring activity has strengthened in seven regions, according to employers. The most noteworthy improvements are in Wales and the North West, with increases in the Outlook of 20 and 11 percentage points, respectively. Meanwhile, the Outlook for Scotland declines by 12 percentage points, and decreases of 11 percentage points are reported in both the North East and Northern Ireland.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers in five regions anticipate headcount gains in the coming quarter, with the strongest hiring prospects reported in the South West and Wales. Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook has declined in nine regions, while year-over-year, hiring intentions are weaker in six regions.

East

East Midlands

London

North West

North East

Northern Ireland

Scotland

South East

South WestWales

West MidlandsYorkshire & Humberside

DecreaseQ1 2011 Q1 2011 Q4 2010 Q1 2010

Qtr on QtrChangeQ4 2010

to Q1 2011

Yr on YrChangeQ1 2010

to Q1 2011IncreaseQ1 2011

%

15

10

11

5

9

8

4

7

1815

67

%

10

13

6

15

5

13

23

8

58

128

%

5 (3)1-3 (5)1

5 (3)1

-10 (-6)1

4 (6)1

-5 (-7)1

-19 (-12)1

-1 (5)1

13 (13)1

7 (9)1

-6 (-5)1

-1 (2)1

%

6 (3)112 (11)1

1 (-2)1

2 (2)1

3 (2)1

-2 (-4)1

-11 (-7)1

7 (6)1

14 (12)1

-9 (-9)1

-3 (-5)1

11 (8)1

%

6 (3)12 (7)1

2 (1)1

1 (5)1

-7 (-5)1

6 (4)1

-5 (0)1

-1 (2)1

5 (5)1

-13 (-11)1

-11 (-9)1

2 (1)1

%

-1 (0)1-15 (-6)1

4 (5)1

-12 (-8)1

1 (4)1

-3 (-3)1

-8 (-5)1

-8 (-1)1

-1 (1)1

16 (18)1

-3 (0)1

-12 (-6)1

%

-1 (0)1-5 (-2)1

3 (2)1

-11 (-11)1

11 (11)1

-11 (-11)1

-14 (-12)1

0 (3)1

8 (8)1

20 (20)1

5 (4)1

-3 (1)1

1. Number in parentheses is the Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove seasonal variations.

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Sector SummaryEmployers in five of the nine industry sectors expect to increase staffing levels in Quarter 1 2011. The most encouraging Net Employment Outlooks of +8% are reported by employers in the Utilities sector and the Finance & Business Services sector. However, employers in four sectors anticipate negative headcount growth; the weakest hiring climate is forecast by Hotels & Retail sector employers with an Outlook of -5%.

Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook has improved slightly in four industry sectors, including an increase of three percentage points in the Transport & Communications sector. Meanwhile, employers in five sectors report weaker hiring prospects, with the most notable decrease of four percentage points reported in the Agriculture

sector. Year-over-year, hiring intentions have strengthened in six of the nine industry sectors, including the Transport & Communications sector where the Outlook is 12 percentage points stronger. However, employers in the Agriculture sector and the Hotels & Retail sector report weaker hiring plans, with Outlooks declining by five and four percentage points, respectively.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers in four industry sectors predict positive headcount growth in Quarter 1 2011, with the most optimistic plans evident in the Finance & Business Services sector. The Outlook weakens in six sectors quarter-over-quarter, but is stronger in seven sectors year-over-year.

Agriculture

Community & Social

Construction

Hotels & Retail

Finance &Business Services

Manufacturing

Mining

Transport &CommunicationsUtilities

DecreaseQ1 2011 Q1 2011 Q4 2010 Q1 2010

Qtr on QtrChangeQ4 2010

to Q1 2011

Yr on YrChangeQ1 2010

to Q1 2011IncreaseQ1 2011

%

7

3

4

17

7

6

11

11

11

%

7

11

12

8

15

7

9

6

4

%

0 (-1)1-8 (-4)1

-8 (-4)1

9 (8)1

-8 (-5)1

-1 (2)1

2 (5)1

5 (4)1

7 (8)1

%

-3 (-2)1-4 (0)1

-6 (-6)1

12 (10)1

-1 (-2)1

5 (4)1

6 (8)1

1 (1)1

7 (7)1

%

-1 (-2)1-3 (1)1

-13 (-8)1

8 (7)1

-4 (-1)1

-4 (-2)1

1 (5)1

-9 (-8)1

6 (4)1

%

3 (1)1-4 (-4)1

-2 (2)1

-3 (-2)1

-7 (-3)1

-6 (-2)1

-4 (-3)1

4 (3)1

0 (1)1

%

1 (1)1-5 (-5)1

5 (4)1

1 (1)1

-4 (-4)1

3 (4)1

1 (0)1

14 (12)1

1 (4)1

1. Number in parentheses is the Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove seasonal variations.


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Regional ComparisonsEmployers in eight UK regions expect to grow headcount during Quarter 1 2011. A favourable hiring climate is anticipated in the South West region, where employers report a Net Employment Outlook of +13%. Employers in Wales are also cautiously optimistic, with an Outlook of +9%. In the North West, employers report some encouraging signs for job seekers, with an Outlook of +6%, and some gains are also likely in the South East and the East, where Outlooks stand at +5%. However, employers in four regions forecast negative headcount growth. The gloomiest hiring prospects are reported in Scotland, where the Outlook stands at -12%, while Northern Ireland employers also report weak hiring plans with an Outlook of -7%.

Quarter-over-quarter, hiring prospects have strengthened in four regions, most notably in Wales, where employers report a considerable improvement in the Outlook by 18 percentage points. A moderate increase of five percentage points is evident in the Outlook for London, and an improvement of four percentage points is reported in the North West. Meanwhile, employers in six regions report weaker hiring prospects, including the North East, where the Outlook declines by eight percentage

points. The East and Yorkshire & Humberside regions also report decreases of six percentage points each.

Year-over-year, employers in seven regions report stronger hiring plans. Hiring prospects in Wales have improved considerably according to employers, who report a 20 percentage point improvement in the Outlook. In the North West region, employers report an 11 percentage point increase, while the Outlook for the South West region also improves by eight percentage points. Elsewhere, employers in four regions report weaker hiring prospects, including Scotland, with a 12 percentage point decline. The Outlooks for Northern Ireland and the North East region also considerably decrease, by 11 percentage points each.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers in five regions forecast positive headcount growth in the upcoming quarter, with the strongest hiring plans evident in the South West and Wales. In the remaining seven regions, negative headcount growth is anticipated. The weakest labour markets are predicted by employers in Scotland, the North East and the West Midlands. Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook has weakened in nine regions, while year-over-year, it has declined in six regions.

-20 15

North East

13 13

Wales

North West

-19 -12

London

West Midlands

7

-10 -6

4 6

National Average 0 2

Scotland

Yorkshire & Humberside

-1 5

East

South East

East Midlands 53

-5 -7

Northern Ireland

-3 5

South West

53

Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook

9

-6 -5

-1 2

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10

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With a Net Employment Outlook of +5%, employers in the East region forecast slight headcount gains in Quarter 1 2011. Hiring prospects in the region have weakened by six percentage points quarter-over-quarter and by two percentage points year-over-year.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report disappointing hiring plans for the coming quarter. The Outlook declines considerably when compared with the previous quarter, and is also moderately weaker year-over-year.

East -3 (5)%

Net Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

East Midlands +5 (3)%Slow-paced headcount growth is anticipated in the East Midlands region in Quarter 1 2011, with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +3%. The Outlook is unchanged both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report some encouraging signs for job seekers in the coming quarter. The Outlook remains relatively stable both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


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London employers report the most optimistic forecast since Quarter 1 2009, with a cautious Net Employment Outlook of +3%. Hiring prospects have strengthened both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, with employers reporting Outlook improvements of five and two percentage points, respectively.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast modest headcount gains in the upcoming quarter. The Outlook is slightly stronger both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

London +5 (3)%


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

North East -10 (-6)%Employers in the North East region report the weakest hiring intentions since Quarter 2 2001, with a disappointing Net Employment Outlook of -6% for Quarter 1 2011. The Outlook has declined by eight percentage points quarter-over-quarter and by 11 percentage points year-over-year.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast a struggling labour market in the coming quarter, and hiring prospects are considerably weaker both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.



-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

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Employers in the North West region report the strongest hiring prospects since Quarter 1 2008, with a Net Employment Outlook of +6%. Hiring intentions have strengthened both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, with the Outlook improving by four and 11 percentage points, respectively.

Based on unadjusted survey data, mild headcount growth is predicted for the upcoming quarter. The Outlook remains relatively stable quarter-over-quarter, and has improved considerably when compared to Quarter 1 2010.

North West +4 (6)%



-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Northern Ireland -5 (-7)%Employers in Northern Ireland predict a downbeat hiring pace in Quarter 1 2011, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of -7%. Hiring prospects weaken both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, with the Outlook declining by three and 11 percentage points, respectively.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report unstable hiring intentions for the coming quarter. Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook is slightly weaker, while year-over-year, employers report a considerable decline.


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Northern Ireland joined the survey in Q2 2003.


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Employers predict the weakest hiring climate in Scotland since it was first included in the survey in Quarter 2 2002. The Net Employment Outlook stands at a gloomy -12%, having declined by five percentage points quarter-over-quarter and by 12 percentage points year-over-year.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report dim hiring prospects for the upcoming quarter. The Outlook declines moderately quarter-over-quarter, and is considerably weaker year-over-year.

Scotland -19 (-12)%


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Scotland joined the survey in Q2 2002. No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

South East -1 (5)%Employers in the South East report encouraging signs for the region’s job seekers during Quarter 1 2011, with a Net Employment Outlook of +5%. The Outlook remains relatively stable when compared with the previous quarter, and improves by three percentage points year-over-year.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report uncertain hiring plans for Quarter 1 2011. The Outlook is moderately weaker quarter-over-quarter, and unchanged year-over-year.


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

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With a Net Employment Outlook of +13%, South West employers forecast an upbeat hiring pace for Quarter 1 2011. Hiring intentions are stronger than at any point since Quarter 4 2007. While the Outlook remains relatively stable quarter-over-quarter, it is eight percentage points stronger year-over-year.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers predict respectable headcount growth in the coming quarter. The Outlook remains relatively stable quarter-over-quarter and is moderately stronger year-over-year.

South West +13 (13)%


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


Wales +7 (9)%With a Net Employment Outlook of +9%, Welsh employers report the most encouraging hiring intentions since Quarter 1 2008. The Outlook has improved considerably both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, increasing by 18 and 20 percentage points, respectively.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report cautiously optimistic hiring plans for the coming quarter, and the Outlook is considerably stronger both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Wales joined the survey in Q2 2002. No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.


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Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast sluggish hiring prospects in the forthcoming quarter. The Outlook is slightly weaker quarter-over-quarter, but moderately stronger year-over-year.

Job seekers in the West Midlands are likely to encounter a weak hiring climate for the tenth consecutive quarter, according to employers, who report a downbeat Net Employment Outlook of -5%. The Outlook is unchanged quarter-over-quarter, and improves by four percentage points year-over-year.

West Midlands -6 (-5)%


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Yorkshire & Humberside -1 (2)%Employers in Yorkshire & Humberside report limited hiring plans for the coming quarter, with a Net Employment Outlook of +2%. Hiring prospects weaken by six percentage points quarter-over-quarter, but are relatively stable when compared with Quarter 1 2010.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report uncertain hiring intentions for Quarter 1 2011. The Outlook is considerably weaker quarter-over-quarter, and has also declined slightly when compared with Quarter 1 2010.



-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

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Sector ComparisonsEmployers in five of the nine industry sectors anticipate positive headcount growth in Quarter 1 2011. The most encouraging Net Employment Outlooks of +8% are reported in both the Utilities sector and the Finance & Business Services sector. Mining sector employers predict modest headcount gains, with an Outlook of +5%, and a slight increase in staffing levels is likely in the Transport & Communications sector, where the Outlook stands at +4%. Elsewhere, employers in four sectors predict negative headcount growth, most notably in the Hotels & Retail sector, with an Outlook of -5%.

Quarter-over-quarter, employers in five industry sectors report slightly weaker hiring intentions, including the Agriculture sector, where the Outlook declines by four percentage points. Declines of three percentage points are also reported in the Outlooks for both the Mining sector and the Hotels & Retail sector. Meanwhile, Outlooks are slightly stronger in four sectors, including the Transport & Communications sector, where employers report an increase of three percentage points.

Year-over-year, hiring prospects are stronger in six industry sectors. The most notable improvement of 12 percentage points is reported by Transport & Communications sector employers. Slight improvements of four percentage points are reported by employers in the Construction sector, the Utilities sector and the Manufacturing sector. Weaker hiring plans are reported in two sectors – the Outlook for the Agriculture sector declines by five percentage points, while the Outlook for the Hotels & Retail sector is four percentage points weaker.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers in four industry sectors intend to increase staffing levels in the coming quarter. The most encouraging hiring prospects are reported in the Finance & Business Services sector and the Utilities sector. Meanwhile, employers in four sectors predict negative headcount growth. Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook has weakened in six of the nine sectors, but it has improved in seven when compared with Quarter 1 2010.

-10 -5 0 5 10 15

Community & Social

2 5

National Average

5 4

Construction

-8 -5

Transport & Communications

0 2

-4

0 -1

-8

Agriculture -8 -4

Hotels & Retail

7 8

Utilities

-1 2

Manufacturing

9 8

Finance & Business Services

Mining

Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook


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Employers in the Agriculture sector report the weakest hiring prospects since Quarter 4 2005, with a Net Employment Outlook for Quarter 1 2011 of -4%. The Outlook has weakened by four percentage points quarter-over-quarter, and by five percentage points year-over-year.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers anticipate a struggling labour market in the coming quarter. The Outlook has weakened both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

Agriculture -8 (-4)%

’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11Net Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook

The Agriculture sector joined the survey in Q2 2002. No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

-50-40-30-20-10

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Community & Social 0 (-1)%Employers in the Community & Social sector anticipate limited hiring plans in Quarter 1 2011, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of -1%. The Outlook remains relatively stable both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers predict flat hiring activity in the coming quarter. The Outlook has improved slightly quarter-over-quarter, and is relatively stable year-over-year.


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For the tenth consecutive quarter, Construction sector employers report a negative hiring forecast, with a Net Employment Outlook of -4%. However, the Outlook is slightly stronger both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, improving by two and four percentage points, respectively.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report pessimistic hiring prospects for the coming quarter. The Outlook is slightly weaker when compared with the previous quarter, but is moderately stronger year-over-year.

Construction -8 (-4)%



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Finance & Business Services +9 (8)%Job seekers are likely to benefit from a fair hiring climate in Quarter 1 2011, according to Finance & Business Services employers, who report a Net Employment Outlook of +8%. While the Outlook declines by two percentage points quarter-over-quarter, it remains relatively stable when compared with Quarter 1 2010.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report upbeat hiring plans for Quarter 1 2011. The Outlook is slightly weaker quarter-over-quarter, but remains relatively stable year-over-year.

In the Business Services sub-sector, employers report cautiously optimistic hiring plans for Quarter 1 2011, with a Net Employment Outlook of +9%. While the sub-sector Outlook declines by four percentage points when compared with the previous quarter, it remains relatively stable year-over-year.

Employers in the Finance sub-sector report cautiously optimistic hiring intentions for the coming quarter, with an Outlook of +5%. The sub-sector Outlook improves by three percentage points quarter-over-quarter and by two percentage points year-over-year.



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For the tenth consecutive quarter, Hotels & Retail sector employers forecast negative headcount growth, with a Net Employment Outlook for Quarter 1 2011 of -5%. The Outlook weakens both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, declining by three and four percentage points, respectively.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers predict a sluggish labour market in the forthcoming quarter. The Outlook is moderately weaker compared with the previous quarter, and is also slightly weaker year-over-year.

Hiring prospects in the Hotels & Restaurants sub-sector are gloomy, with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of -19%. The sub-sector Outlook has considerably declined both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, by ten and 13 percentage points, respectively.

In the B2B sub-sector, employers report disappointing hiring intentions, with an Outlook of -3%. The sub-sector Outlook has weakened by ten percentage points quarter-over-quarter, and by four percentage points year-over-year.

B2C sub-sector employers also report a downbeat Outlook of -3%, for the second consecutive quarter. Year-over-year, the sub-sector Outlook slightly improves by two percentage points.

Hotels & Retail -8 (-5)%



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Manufacturing -1 (2)%Manufacturing sector employers report quiet hiring plans for Quarter 1 2011, with a Net Employment Outlook of +2%. The Outlook has declined by two percentage points quarter-over-quarter, but has improved by four percentage points year-over-year.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast an uncertain hiring climate in the coming quarter. The Outlook is moderately weaker quarter-over-quarter, but slightly stronger year-over-year.


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Mining sector employers predict some opportunities to increase staffing levels during Quarter 1 2011, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +5%. Although the Outlook declines by three percentage points quarter-over-quarter, it is unchanged when compared with Quarter 1 2010.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast a soft labour market in the upcoming quarter. The Outlook is slightly weaker quarter-over-quarter, but remains relatively stable year-over-year.

Mining +2 (5)%

The Mining sector joined the survey in Q2 2002. No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.


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Transport & Communications +5 (4)%Employers in the Transport & Communications sector report the most optimistic hiring climate since Quarter 1 2008, with a modest Net Employment Outlook of +4%. The Outlook has improved by three percentage points quarter-over-quarter and by 12 percentage points year-over-year.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers predict limited headcount gains in Quarter 1 2011. The Outlook is slightly stronger quarter-over-quarter, and improves considerably year-over-year.

Employers in the Transport sub-sector anticipate slight increases in staffing levels during the coming quarter, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +4%. Hiring prospects have improved both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, with Outlook improvements of six and 17 percentage points, respectively.

Meanwhile, in the Telecoms sub-sector, employers predict mild hiring intentions, with an Outlook of +7%. The Outlook declines by four percentage points quarter-over-quarter, but remains relatively stable year-over-year.



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With a Net Employment Outlook of +8%, Utilities sector employers forecast moderate headcount gains in Quarter 1 2011. The Outlook remains relatively stable quarter-over-quarter, and improves by four percentage points year-over-year.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report encouraging signs for job seekers in the coming quarter. Hiring plans are unchanged quarter-over-quarter, and remain relatively stable year-over-year.

Utilities +7 (8)%

The Utilities sector joined the survey in Q2 2002.


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Global Employment OutlookNearly 64,000 employers have been interviewed across 39 countries and territories to measure anticipated employment trends* between January and March 2011.

Employers in 32 of the 39 countries and territories Manpower surveyed expect to add to their workforces to varying degrees over the next three months.

Employers in Bulgaria, Slovenia and Turkey participate in the survey for the first time, bringing the total number of countries surveyed in the Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) region to 21.

Employers in India, China, Taiwan, Brazil, Turkey and Singapore report the strongest first-quarter hiring plans, while those in Greece, the Czech Republic, Austria and Ireland report the weakest hiring forecasts. The hiring pace is expected to decline in 17 of the 36 countries and territories where quarter-over-quarter comparisons are possible, and in the 35 countries and territories where year-over-year comparisons are possible, the hiring pace is expected to improve in 28.

Regionally, employers in the Americas and Asia Pacific continue to report positive Net Employment Outlooks. Hiring demands have improved somewhat from 12 months ago in all eight Asia Pacific countries and territories, and in all but one country in the Americas where year-over-year data is available. Outlooks in the U.S. and India improve slightly from both Quarter 4 2010 and last year at this time, and Japan’s Net Employment Outlook continues to improve incrementally with employers reporting their most optimistic forecast since Quarter 4 2008.

In the EMEA region, Outlooks decline in 11 of the 18 countries surveyed from three months ago. However, year-over-year comparisons are more favourable, showing improved job prospects in 12 countries from Quarter 1 2010. Hiring intentions are strongest in Turkey, Germany and Sweden, while employers in Italy report their first positive Net Employment Outlook since Quarter 3 2008.

* Commentary is based on seasonally adjusted data where available.

Survey Respondents by Region

Asia Pacific24%

EMEA29%

Americas47%

Research for the Quarter 1 2011 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey involved surveying 63,749 human resources directors and senior hiring managers from public and private organisations worldwide. 47% of respondents came from ten countries in the Americas; 24% from eight countries and territories across Asia Pacific; and 29% from 21 countries in EMEA.


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Americas

Asia PacificAustralia

China

Hong Kong

Japan

India

New Zealand

Singapore

Taiwan

EMEA*

Austria

Belgium

Net Employment Outlook

Quarter 1 2011Quarter 4 2010

51 (42)1

5 (5)1

6 (6)1

%

20 (20)1

4 (6)1

15 (16)1

17 (17)1

42 (39)1

22 (22)1

40 (39)1

38 (40)1

-7 (-3)1

4 (4)1

%

21 (21)1

2 (7)1

16 (16)1

20 (21)1

41 (42)1

27 (26)1

32 (37)1

14 (14)1

16 (17)1

23 (22)1

5 (14)1

14 (16)1

25 (22)1

1 (0)1

7 (7)1-1 (1)1

7 (11)1

2 (1)1

9 (15)1

-3 (-2)1

9 (11)1

-4 (-1)1

5 (6)1

–

-8 (-6)1

1 (3)1

4 (0)1

-5 (-3)1

5 (7)1

-4 (-2)1

5 (9)1

27

2 (3)1

Qtr on Qtr Change

Q4 2010 to Q1 2011

-13 (-2)1

-12 (-8)1

-2 (-2)1

1 (1)1

-2 (1)1

1 (0)1

3 (4)1

-1 (3)1

5 (4)1

-8 (-2)1

24 (25)1

-6 (-6)1

8 (9)1

2 (2)1

6 (6)1

2 (2)1

7 (7)1

5 (5)1

5 (5)1

10 (10)1

Yr on Yr Change

Q1 2010 to Q1 2011 Quarter 1 2010

%

19 (19)1

22 (27)1

14 (15)1

36 (37)113 (14)1

-4 (1)1

14 (14)1

22 (21)1

-1 (3)1

-4 (-5)1

Bulgaria – 4 – ––

2 (11)1

6 (6)1

Costa Rica 23 (21)1 22 (19)1 -1 (-2)1 2 (2)120 (17)1Colombia 17 10 -7 19

19 (16)1

United States 4 (5)1 4 (9)1 0 (4)1 4 (4)10 (5)1

0 (1)1Czech Republic -2 -5 -3 1-6

1 (5)1

Greece -10 -15 -5 -161

Hungary 0 1 1 8-7

4 (0)1

-13 (-11)1

-3 (-3)1

5 (7)1

-12 (-10)1South Africa 6 (7)1 5 (3)1 -1 (-4)1 -8 (-8)113 (11)1Slovenia – 2 – ––

Poland 11 5 -6 14

Romania 0 -2 -2 9-11

2 (6)1

–

-8 (-7)1

Canada

Mexico

Peru

-9 (0)1

-2 (-1)1

2 (0)1

3 (3)137 3631Brazil -1 5

17 (17)1 20 (18)112 (10)1Argentina 3 (1)1 8 (8)1

8 (10)19 912Guatemala 0 -3

6 (6)119 21–Panama 2 –

*EMEA – Europe, Middle East and Africa. 1. Number in parentheses is the Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove the impact of seasonal variations in hiring activity. Please note that this data is not available for all countries as a minimum of 17 quarters worth of data is required.

France

Germany

-2 (1)1

0 (4)1-1 (0)1

6 (6)1

Ireland

Netherlands

Norway

Spain

Turkey

Italy

Switzerland

Sweden

-1 (2)1

-5 (-15)1

-2 (-1)1

-4 (-4)1

0 (-1)1

0 (3)1

–

10 (9)1

4 (6)1

0 (0)1

8 (8)1

0 (0)1

8 (8)1

3 (3)1

–

2 (1)1 0 (2)1-1 (1)1UK -2 (1)1 1 (1)1

10 (10)1

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Over 18,000 interviews have been conducted with employers across 21 EMEA countries to measure anticipated hiring activity for Quarter 1 2011. Employers in Bulgaria, Slovenia and Turkey join the survey for the first time in Quarter 1 2011.

First-quarter hiring expectations remain mixed, with employers in 14 countries reporting varying degrees of positive hiring activity. While Net Employment Outlooks weaken in 11 countries from three months ago, a year- over-year comparison reveals stronger Outlooks in 12 countries. Hiring expectations are strongest in Turkey, Germany and Sweden. In contrast, employers in Greece, the Czech Republic, Austria, Ireland, Spain and Romania report the weakest and only negative forecasts globally.

International Comparisons – EMEAGerman employers – buoyed by upbeat forecasts in the Finance & Business Services industry sector – report their most optimistic hiring plans in three years, while Swedish employers anticipate their country’s strongest hiring pace in over two years. Meanwhile, the employer optimism evident in the first Turkish survey is partly fuelled by strong hiring intentions in the Construction and Manufacturing industry sectors. Additionally, data for Italy shows improved hiring expectations for the third consecutive quarter, resulting in the first positive forecast from Italian employers in more than two years.

Austria50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Bulgaria

Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

Bulgaria joined the survey in Q1 2011.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Czech Republic


Czech Republic joined the survey in Q2 2008.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Belgium50

40

30

20

10

0

-10



2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


20


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Germany50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Hungary50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

Hungary joined the survey in Q3 2009.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Italy

Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Greece50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


Greece joined the survey in Q2 2008.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Ireland50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

France



2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

21


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Norway50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Netherlands50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Poland50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


Poland joined the survey in Q2 2008.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Romania


Romania joined the survey in Q2 2008.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Slovenia


Slovenia joined the survey in Q1 2011.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

South Africa50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


South Africa joined the survey in Q4 2006.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook


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UK50

40

30

20

10

0

-10



2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Spain50

40

30

20

10

0

-10



2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Switzerland50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


Switzerland joined the survey in Q3 2005.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Sweden50

40

30

20

10

0

-10



2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Turkey


Turkey joined the survey in Q1 2011.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

23


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Nearly 30,000 interviews have been conducted across Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Mexico, Panama, Peru and the United States to measure employment prospects for Quarter 1 2011. The data shows positive hiring intentions across the region for the next three months; however, the Net Employment Outlooks are expected to be slightly weaker quarter-over-quarter in four of the ten countries surveyed but stronger in all countries except Guatemala where year-over-year data is available.

Employers in Brazil, Peru and Panama report the strongest hiring intentions within the region. Meanwhile, job seekers in Guatemala and the United States are likely to encounter the region’s weakest employment prospects, although employers in both countries expect

International Comparisons – Americasa modest hiring pace to continue in the first three months of the year. In fact, U.S. employers are reporting their most optimistic forecast since Q4 2008 and, together with Mexican employers, report their strongest first-quarter hiring intentions in three years. Similarly, Canadian employers remain upbeat, buoyed by moderate quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year improvements in the Wholesale & Retail Trade industry sector.

In Brazil, where four in ten employers indicate they will add to their payrolls in the upcoming quarter, optimism is further driven by strength in the Services industry sector: for the second consecutive quarter more than half of the sector’s employers surveyed report they intend to add employees.

Argentina50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


Argentina joined the survey in Q1 2007.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook

Canada50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Brazil50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


Brazil joined the survey in Q4 2009.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Colombia50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


Colombia joined the survey in Q4 2008.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


24


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Costa Rica50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


Costa Rica joined the survey in Q3 2006.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Mexico50

40

30

20

10

0

-10



2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

USA50

40

30

20

10

0

-10



2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Guatemala50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


Guatemala joined the survey in Q2 2008.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Panama60

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50


Panama joined the survey in Q2 2010.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Peru60

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50


Peru joined the survey in Q2 2006.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

25


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Nearly 16,000 interviews have been conducted across Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore and Taiwan to measure anticipated hiring activity between January and March 2011.

Employer hiring expectations continue to be optimistic throughout the region where job prospects improve year-over-year in all eight countries and territories surveyed. Compared to three months ago, job prospects improve or remain stable in six of the countries and territories surveyed. Regional hiring plans continue to be strongest in India, China and Taiwan, and weakest in Japan despite employers there reporting five consecutive quarters of steadily improving Outlooks.

International Comparisons – Asia PacificIndia’s hiring pace continues to be dynamic: more than half of all Service sector employers plan to add to their workforces in the January to March period; while those in the Manufacturing industry sector report their most optimistic hiring intentions since the survey began. Similarly, Chinese job seekers in the Wholesale & Retail Trade industry sector are likely to benefit from the sector’s most optimistic employer hiring plans since the survey began there in 2005.

Australia50

40

30

20

10

0

-10



2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Hong Kong50

40

30

20

10

0

-10



2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

China50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


China joined the survey in Q2 2005.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

India50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


India joined the survey in Q3 2005.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


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Japan50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Singapore



2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

-60-50-40-30-20-10

010203040506070

New Zealand50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


New Zealand joined the survey in Q2 2004.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Taiwan50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


Taiwan joined the survey in Q2 2005.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

27


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The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforces during the next quarter. The survey has been running for more than 47 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity in the world. Various factors underpin the success of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey:

Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area of focus.

Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the world, asking employers to forecast employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus on retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past.

Independent: The survey is conducted with a representative sample of employers from throughout the countries in which it is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from Manpower’s customer base.

Robust: The survey is based on interviews with nearly 64,000 public and private employers across 39 countries and territories to measure anticipated employment trends each quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information.

Focused: For nearly five decades, the survey has derived all of its information from a single question.

Survey QuestionAll employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked the same question, “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of March 2011 as compared to the current quarter?”

MethodologyThe Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest standards in market research. The research team for the 39 countries and territories where the survey is currently conducted includes Manpower’s internal research team and Infocorp Ltd. The survey has been structured to be representative of each national economy. The margin of error for all national, regional and global data is not greater than +/- 3.9%.

In the UK, the national survey includes 2,100 employers. With this number of interviews, the margin of error for the UK survey is +/- 2.1%.

Net Employment OutlookThroughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment Outlook.” This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook.

Seasonal AdjustmentSeasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, China, Costa Rica, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, the United Kingdom and the United States to provide additional insight into the survey data. These adjustments make it possible to review the data without the employment fluctuations that normally occur at the same time each year, thus providing a clearer picture of the data over time. Manpower intends to add seasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in the future, as more historical data is compiled. Note that in Quarter 2 2008, Manpower adopted the TRAMO-SEATS method of seasonal adjustment for data.

About the Survey


28


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History of the Survey1962 First generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook

Survey launched in the United States and Canada.

1966 Manpower’s United Kingdom operation launches the equivalent of the United States survey, naming the report the Quarterly Survey of Employment Prospects. The survey adopts the same forward-looking research format as the United States survey and is the first of its kind in Europe.

1976 Second generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey launched in the United States and Canada. Research methodology is updated to evolve with advancements in the field of market research.

2002 Manpower United Kingdom’s Quarterly Survey of Employment Prospects is updated to adopt an enhanced research methodology. Manpower’s operations in Mexico and Ireland launch the survey in their respective countries.

2003 Third generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is launched, expanding the programme to a total of 18 countries and territories worldwide: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States.

2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.

2005 Manpower operations in China, India, Switzerland and Taiwan launch the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.

2006 Manpower operations in Costa Rica, Peru and South Africa join the survey programme. Surveys in Australia, Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain and Sweden add seasonally adjusted data in the third quarter.

2007 Manpower operations in Argentina launch the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. The survey in New Zealand adds seasonally adjusted data in the first quarter.

2008 Manpower operations in Colombia, the Czech Republic, Greece, Guatemala, Poland and Romania join the survey programme. China and Taiwan add seasonally adjusted data in the second quarter. India and Switzerland add seasonally adjusted data in the third quarter.

2009 Manpower operations in Hungary and Brazil launch the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.

2010 Manpower’s Panama operation launches the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, expanding the programme total to 36 countries and territories worldwide. Peru adds seasonally adjusted data in the second quarter. Costa Rica adds seasonally adjusted data in the fourth quarter.

2011 Beginning in the first quarter, operations in Bulgaria, Slovenia and Turkey join the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. Additionally, seasonally adjusted data is added in the first quarter for Argentina and South Africa.

29


CLieNT: manpower


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Manpower was established in the UK in 1956, and today works with organisations in both the public and private sectors, ranging from small and medium size enterprises, to multi-national organisations such as BT, Hertfordshire County Council, IBM, Royal Mail and Xerox.

The focus of Manpower’s work is on raising productivity through improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction, enabling clients to concentrate on their core business. Manpower works across all industries finding people for every level of an organisation.

Manpower Professional, a division of Manpower UK, specialises in providing expert consultancy and workforce outsourcing solutions within the accountancy and finance sectors, backed by award-winning training, assessment and selection. Manpower Professional work in partnership with FTSE 250 corporations, private local firms, public sector organisations and accountancy practices of all sizes, finding and retaining high calibre people to suit every need.

For more information, visit manpower.co.uk and manpowerpublicsector.co.uk

About Manpower UKManpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in innovative workforce solutions; creating and delivering services that enable its clients to win in the changing world of work. With over 60 years’ experience, Manpower offers employers a range of services and solutions for the entire employment and business cycle including permanent, temporary and contract recruitment; employee assessment and selection; training; outplacement; outsourcing and consulting. Manpower’s worldwide network of nearly 4,000 offices in 82 countries and territories enables the company to meet the needs of its 400,000 clients per year, including small and medium size enterprises in all industry sectors, as well as the world’s largest multi-national corporations. The focus of Manpower’s work is on raising productivity through improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction across their total workforce, enabling clients to concentrate on their core business activities. Manpower Inc. operates under five brands: Manpower, Manpower Professional, Elan, Jefferson Wells and Right Management. More information about Manpower Inc. is available at www.manpower.com.

About Manpower Inc.


CLieNT: manpower


SiZe: a4




Manpower UK Ltd., Capital Court, Windsor Street, Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 1ABTel: 01895 205 200 Fax: 01895 205 201www.manpower.co.uk

© 2010, Manpower Inc. All rights reserved.

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