PV Market and industry development in Germany Christoph Urbschat Chairman Work Group Export...

PV Market and industry development in Germany

Christoph UrbschatChairman Work Group Export PhotovoltaicGerman Solar Industry Association (BSW-Solar)

Stralauer Platz 34, 10243 Berlin, GermanyTel. +49 30 2977788 0, Fax +49 30 2977788 99www.bsw-solar.de, [email protected]

Athens, September 15, 2009

© BSW-Solar 2009 2

German Solar Industry AssociationBundesverband Solarwirtschaft – BSW-Solar

TASK Represent the German solar industry

in the solar thermal energy and photovoltaics sectors

VISION A worldwide sustainable energy supply

provided by solar energy

ACTIVITIES Lobbying, political advice, public relations,

market observation, standardization

TIME Over 25 years of activity in the solar energy

sector

MEMBERS More than 700 solar producers, suppliers,

wholesalers, installers and other companies active in

the solar business

HEADQUARTERS Berlin Solar Markets Germany, September 15, 2009, Athens

© BSW-Solar 2009 3

PV is the most fascinating way to produce electricity

Advantages

• PV can be used everywhere worldwide

• PV can be used grid connected and off-grid

• PV can be used in every size

• PV needs only one initial investment

• PV does not harm the environment

• PV has the biggest potential among all RES

Challenge: Today, PV is often the most expensive way to produce electricity using RES

However: PV has the highest cost reduction potential

=> PV has to be developed today in order to have (1) enough solar capacity available in one decade (2) at a competitive price

Sou

rce

: A

leo

Source: Solarwatt

Source: Phönix

Source: SMA

Why do we need Photovoltaics?

Solar Markets Germany, September 15, 2009, Athens

© BSW-Solar 2009 4

Japan230 MWp; 4%

China50 MWp; 0.8%

South Korea290 MWp; 5%

India70 MWp; 1.2%

Australia40 MWp; 0.7%

RO World195 MWp; 3%

Canada20 MWp; 0.3%

USA500 MWp; 8%

RO Europe53 MWp; 0.9%

Portugal42 MWp; 0.7%

Belgium20 MWp; 0.3%

France150 MWp; 3%

Czech Republic20 MWp; 0.3%

Italy 220 MWp; 4%

Spain2600 MWp; 43%

Germany1500 MWp; 25%

New installed PV Power

2006: 1600 MWp

2007: 2650 MWp(+66%)

2008: 6000 MWp

(+126%)

Photovoltaic World Market 2008

Source: Preliminary figures ofNational PV Associations, Stryi-Hipp, Feb 26th 2009

Red Letters:Countries with Feed-in tariff

schemes

USA342 MW


© BSW-Solar 2009 5

1500

1100

850850

600

3 3 3 3

150

80784012101274

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

annually installed PV power in MWp total installed PV power in MWp

Development of the German PV market

Milestones

1991: First Feed-in Law (FIT with low tariffs)

1991-1995: 1 000 roofs program (grants)

1999-2003: 100 000 roofs program (loans)

2000: Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) (FIT)

2004: Amendment of EEG (FIT)

PV Market Data 2008

Newly installed power 1 500 MWp

Total installed power 5 334 MWp

No. of total systems installed ca. 500 000

Turnover 2008 6 Bln € / 8.1 Bln $

Employees 45 000

To

tal

inst

all

ed P

V p

ow

er i

n M

Wp

esti

mat

ion


© BSW-Solar 2009 6Solar Markets Germany, September 15, 2009, Athens

The differentiation of tariffs create different market segments in Germany.

1. L

oc

ati

on

of

PV

in

sta

lla

tio

n

2. Size of PV installation

3 main PV market segments

2. Project market

1. Retail market

3. BIPV market

Feed-in tariff< 30 kWp

> 30 kWp

> 100 kWp

> 1000 kWp

On buildings and on noise protection walls

€ 46.75ct

€ 44.48ct

€ 43.99ct

-8% -10% -25%

€ 43.01ct

€ 40.91ct

€ 39.58ct

€ 33.00ct

Façade integration

plus € 5ct -100% 0

Free land / ground mounted

€ 35.49ct -10% € 31.94ct

© BSW-Solar 2009 7

Germany: Market Segments of on-grid PV SystemsImage: Sharp

Size of the system

Gro

un

d

Ro

of

top

BIP

Vm

ou

nte

dE

ffor

t of

mo

untin

g

Image: Solarwatt

residential homes 1-10 kWpmulti family houses, public + social buildings, farms, commercial plants

10-100 kWp

Image: Solarwatt

Image: Sharp

Image: BP

Large and very large commercial > 100 kWp

Image: Schüco

Image: Geosol Image: Geosol

Image: Grammer

55%37%

8%Est. market shares in 2010

<1%


8© BSW-Solar 2009 Solar Markets Germany, September 15, 2009, Athens

On global level we see in 2009 a differentiation of the PV market in layers, segments and niches.

PV investment market

PV premium market (solar architecture, BIPV, etc.) Solar mobility

market

Green building market

PV XXL (power plant) market

PV off-grid market

PV low end market (DIY, kits, cheap/standard)

PV auto-supplier / ESCO market

PV idealist market (eco-, green)

Time

Market level

Low end

High end

Past (-2008) Short-term (2009-10) Medium-term (2011+)

9

80150

600

850 850

1100

1350

1500

1700

1900

10001100

1200

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

an

nu

ally

ins

talle

d P

V p

ow

er

in M

Wp

annually installed PV power in MWp upper limit lower limit

Amendment of the EEG from June 2008:Feed-in Tariffs for PV will be reduced faster as of 2009

8%/10%

8%/10%

9%9%

Degression rate of feed-in tariffsUp to 2008: 5% / 6.5% (roof top/ground)2009/2010: 8% / 10% (< / >100 kWp)2011/2012: 9%Below/above corridor: -1%/+1%

-1%-1%

-1%

+1%

+1%

+1%

Degression rate 5%/6.5%

est

© BSW-Solar 2009 Solar Markets Germany, September 15, 2009, Athens

14

Conclusions

• Photovoltaics has a great potential worldwide– but it is necessary to build up market and industry today

• The German PV market is growing continously

• Driver of the market is the feed-in tariff system (EEG)

• There are already more than 40.000 jobs created in the PV sector in Germany

• Prices for PV modules were reduced significantly in the last 6 months, therefore investments in PV systems are much more attractive today

© BSW-Solar 2009 Solar Markets Germany, September 15, 2009, Athens

PV Market and industry development in Germany Christoph Urbschat Chairman Work Group Export...

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