The Puzzle 6: Nuclear Energy in Nuclear Allergy State Japanese citizens opposition to owning a nuclear weapon Three No-Nuclear Principles: Parliamentary resolution in 1971 (not a law) Japan shall neither possess nor manufacture nuclear weapons, nor shall it permit their introduction into Japanese territory. Due to traumatic experience with bombing of Hiroshima & Nagasaki during the WWII & Japans strategic reliance on the U.S. security.

As of June 2010 (before the 3.11. earthquake & tsunami): NHKs public opinion survey What do you think about Japans owning & using a nuclear weapon?

National SampleAll

20s-30s40s50s60sOver 70sMay use itIf necessaryMay own it, but should not use itShould not own or use it.

Respondents in Hiroshima

Respondents in Nagasaki

Surprisingly, not much difference from the national sample.

% of Negative Opinions on Nuclear Energy30%-40% of citizens oppose nuclear energySource: Atsuko Kitada (2013): p.178. Opposition to NC Energy is a half of opposition to NC Weapon

Japan Nuclear Facts1963: Japans first nuclear reactor (imported from the United States).1970: First commercial reactor began operating. 1973: Energy crisis Needed to search for alternative sources beyond gas. 1974: Kakuei Tanaka (Prime Ministerremember, he was Mr. Pork!) initiated & successfully legislated Three Power Source Siting Laws; The idea was to give subsidies to local governments who agreed to host nuclear energy plants.

Results: 48 plants before the 3.11., which provided 30% of Japans total energy.

As of September 15, 2013, the number of active plant has been zero.

3.11. and Nuclear Power Accident

Public Health Effects of Radiation

Oyama Primary School 40 miles from FukushimaParents, teachers, and community members decided to take manners into their own hands by removing and burying topsoil from school playgrounds Radiation Readings of topsoil:0.04 microsieverts/hour 1.32 microsieverts/hour 0.25 microsieverts/ hour

Public Opinion After 3.11 (2011)Public Opinion Survey by Asahi Daily, June 13, 2011. 37% Support the Use of Nuclear Energy

42% Oppose

21% Others/DK

74% Support Abandoning Nuclear Energy in the Future

Citizens Protest/Demonstration April 10, 2011. 15,000 people in Tokyo.September 19, 2011.60,000 people participated in anti-nuclear energy demonstration in Tokyo.

Public Protests after 3/2011

To put this in contextDemonstration to support protectionism for towel industry: 4800 people in 2001. Demonstration to oppose Japanese TV programs airing too many South Korean soap operas: 20,000 people in Tokyo in August 2011.

How about Germany?More anti-nuclear energy than Japan to begin with.

1970s: Big anti-nuclear energy movement. Green party won local-level elections and then went national. 2002: SPD & Green Party revised the Nuclear Energy Law to abandon nuclear energy by 2022. 2010: CDU/CSU & FDPrevised the Law again to prolong the operation 12+ more years. After 3.11, Green Party increased its popularity.

Responding to the rise of GP, the CDU/CSU and FDP coalition temporary froze the extension.

Citizens Demonstration in GermanyMarch 12, 2011.60,000 people participated in the anti-nuclear energy demonstration in Stuttgart. The demonstration was originally prepared for the upcoming state-level election.

March 25, 2011. 250,000 people in four major cities participated in the anti-nuclear energy demonstration.

Why Public Oppose Nuclear Weapon but Support Nuclear Energy? Electoral System (MMD until 1994) & the LDPs Pork ArgumentCohen, McCubbins and Rosenbluth (assigned reading)Nuclear power plant as construction projects, environmentalists supported the left, Not-in-my-backyard local residents were farmers & fishermen; bought off by the LDP.But the electoral system changed in 1994 to single-member district plus proportional representation systems. Pork incentives should decline.

Elites mobilized citizens support. Dusinberre & Aldrich trace various elite-driven campaigns.Elites were well-aware of citizens nuclear allergy.Thus made strong effort to convince nuclear energy=peaceAstro Boy (Tetsuwan Atomu), cartoon published since 1952, TV animation aired between 1963 and 1966, won 30% of viewing rate. 1980 & 2003 remake.

Molding Publics Minds?1 1952 vs. 1954Atomu (Astro Boy): PEACE Godzilla w/ Atomic Breath (Bikini accident) Disaster

TEPCO vs RegulatorsTEPCOProblems (Nuclear Meltdown)METIs (former name MITI) agency NISA oversees nuclear energy plants. Collusion through revolving door positionsFuture of regulators

Governmental Response In April of 2011, the government increased the limit of safe radiation exposure for children from 1 millisievert a year to 20 millisieverts a year.Doctors, scientists and parents outraged.

Returning to Previous MeasureEducation Ministrys Logic Schoolyard= 3.8 microsieverts/ hourInside a building= 1.52 microsieverts/ hourStay within the 20 millisieverts a year limit However, announced plans to return exposure limits to 1 millisievert a year How?Covering the cost of removing top soilExpectation that as years pass radiation levels will decline.

The Trade-Offs that Politicians Face

Politicians seem to face many trade-offs in choosing how to respond to disasters. How do they weigh these trade-offs and make decisions? Transparency vs. Blame-AvoidanceJapanese government delayed releasing important data to the public, such as Fukushima nuclear plants waste water leak. The lack of trust. Safety vs. Compensation E.g., evacuation zone for Fukushima nuclear meltdown. Wider the zone, safer the citizens, but more governments budget will be spent on compensating those who are ordered to move. Favor organized interests vs. ordinary citizens E.g., agricultural producesafe or unsafe?Politicians seemed to align with producers Fukushima produce is safe. Efficiency vs. EqualityShould the government spend money to reconstruct the communities damaged by Tsunami, despite the repeated warning by scientists that they were risky locations to live?Should the government encourage farmers to go back to farm (a) in radiation-contaminated Fukushima, or, provide income compensation and discourage them from farming (b), even if (a) costs more than (b)?

What accounts for these decisionsculture, political and economic incentives, market structure, or, political institutions?

Transparency vs. Blame-Avoidance

Force against transparencyPoliticians: We should not spread harmful rumors about Fukushima. Contamination of Fukushima produceAffect the income of farmers. Health risks of Fukushima childrenFuture discrimination for marriage, job hunting etc.The Problem: difficult to sort out whether these are rumors or scientific truth. Either way, these information hurt Fukushima citizens, but that does not mean media should self-regulate.

Media control & self-regulation Oishinbo a popular cartoon about food.The main character visited Fukushima and had a nose breeding.The mayor (the actual character) said the breeding was due to the exposure to radiation. Massive criticisms from politicians and citizens.

In summaryWhy no big civil society movement against nuclear energy after Fukushima disaster? Remember, actors, preference and powerBusinesses and citizens: benefit from cheaper electricity. Not-in-my-backyard but otherwise, some support. Residents of localities hosting nuclear energy plants: jobs + subsidies vs. safety. Agonizing choice. Parents and children: victims, but remember, many parents are also employed in business sectors that benefit from cheap electricity or nuclear plants.How about politicians?No Green Party, like Germany. Left parties did not transform into Green Party (See Kohnos reading on socialist party stagnation). The LDP is pro-business. The DPJ is also divided. Bureaucrats collude with TEPCO via revolving door positions. Civil society movement Not big unless organized by political parties.

Domestic Model of Policy-MakingActors, Preference, and Power

e.g., Executive branch, Cabinet, Prime Minister, BureaucracyPoliticians Economic interest groups Public, Social Groups Policy Outcome Statee.g., legislators, parties, local-level politicians e.g. firms, farmers, business owners, labor unions, industry associationse.g., public, NGOs, environmental groups Bottom-upTop-down

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