Putinism
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Transcript of Putinism
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Putinism
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“I want a guy like Putin” – a Russian pop song, 2004: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9gqQnAvYn4&feature=related
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In 1989-91, Russia experienced a democratic revolution – and democracy began to suffer soon afterwards
The leaders of the new Russian state, which emerged from the ruins of the USSR, wanted capitalism more than democracy
They were deeply unsure of their ability to keep power while they plundered the public assets of the Soviet state
Democracy worked for them to the extent that it enabled them to dismantle the Soviet system
But it became a threat to their interests once they began to rule
Since 1993, they steadily moved to limit and undermine Russian democracy – all the while declaring their commitment to it
By the 2000s, the idea of democracy was discredited
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1999 The end of Russia’s Liberal Decade Results
A highly inefficient model of capitalism A badly damaged, fragmented society A disorganized state privatized by the bureaucrats Extreme insecurity:
Of the state Of the elites Of society
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Real possibility of a regime collapse And of a state collapse Political opposition to the Yeltsin regime was gaining
momentum, real chance to take power through 1999-2000 elections
The Second Chechen War becomes the turning point Spread of insurgency beyond Chechnya – to Dagestan Putin is appointed Prime Minister Offers wartime leadership Appeals to the Russian battle order
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The political turnaround Consolidation of elites behind Putin:
the Kremlin (the Family) key groups of the business elite, bureaucracy, the army the security services
give him support as the figure seemingly capable of “saving Russia” from a catastrophe
Parliamentary election of 1999 – the new “party of power” representing this coalition wins a plurality of seats in the parliament
December 31, 1999 – Yeltsin resigns, appoints Putin Acting President
Presidential election of 2000 – Putin is elected President
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Putin’s gains from Global War on Terror Put Chechnya in a global context favorable to Moscow US and Russia fighting the same enemy America got bogged down in Iraq, which reduced its
capacity to advance on Russia’s interests Russia’s opposition to the Iraq war improved Russia’s
standing in the Muslim world Oil prices surged, driving Russian economic recovery
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Rebuilding “the vertical of power” Reduce the influence of the oligarchs on media and
politics Reduce the power of regional leaders (governors,
presidents of Russia’s republics) Increase the power and role of siloviki (the Enforcers) in
the Russian state “KGB Inc.”, “Neo-nobility”
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Putin’s “Neo-Nobles”: KGB, Inc.
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Igor Sechin
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Sergei Ivanov
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Nikolai Patrushev
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Sergei Lebedev
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Viktor Cherkesov
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Alexander Fradkov
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Alexander Bastrykin
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Rashid Nurgaliyev
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Sergei Shoigu
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Vladimir Ustinov
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Putin’s Neoliberals
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Anatoly Chubais
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Anatoly Medvedev
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Alexei Kudrin
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Mikhail Kasyanov
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Andrei Illarionov
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The Kremlin vs. the oligarchs No populist drive to sack the oligarchs – and they have
continued to prosper But their influence on the state has been significantly
reduced Stick and carrot
The Kremlin now controls “commanding heights”: big business is allowed to function at the discretion of the top political authority – no challenges to the Kremlin are allowed
Redistribution of property
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Putin’s Oligarchs
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Roman Abramovich
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Sergej Pugachev
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Mikhail Fridman
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Oleg Deripaska
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Gennady Timchenko
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Market authoritarianism Economic policy: continued neoliberal reforms, with some
modifications Politics: restoration of state capacity through centralization
of political authority and increase of state control over society
Under Putin, the Kremlin regained part of the power it had lost since Gorbachev’s reforms
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Vladislav Surkov, Presidential adviser
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The President vs. regional governments In 2000 - creation of 7 presidential districts to incorporate
the 89 regions of Russia Since 2004 – top regional executives (governors, republic
presidents, etc.) are no longer elected by voters. They are appointed by the President and confirmed by regional legislatures
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Ramzan Kadyrov, President of Chechnya
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Chechnya now boasts one of the biggest mosques in Europe
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331 died, mostly children
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One of the suicide bombers who blew up Moscow subway stations in March 2010, killing 37 people – with her boyfriend
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The President vs. the parliament Legacy of Yeltsin: an overwhelming Presidency Under Putin, the growth of the “party of power” (United
Russia) put the parliament under firm control of the Kremlin The upper chamber (Federation Council) is no longer
composed of elected representatives
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Boris Gryzlov, Speaker of the State Duma (lower house of Parliament)
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Sergei Mironov, Speaker of “the Senate”
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Elections Eliminating the mixed proportional-majoritarian system in
favour of proportional representation only Raising the threshold of party representation (6% of the
total) Use of “the administrative resources” Control of the media
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Vladimir Churov, Chairman of the Federal Electoral Commission
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Control of the media Under Yeltsin, the media was largely independent of the
government (while falling under oligarch control) Putin moved to re-establish varying degrees of government
control over key media organizations – both public and private (mostly through Kremlin-friendly corporations)
Not a return to Soviet-era censorship, but a significant setback for the cause of democracy
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The economic recovery
Robust economic growth since 2000
Achieved through:
Liberal incentives to the private sector
Political stabilization
High oil and gas prices
Steady improvement of the public finance
Rise of wages, pensions, incomes
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1998: US National Intelligence Council forecast for the year 2010:
“During the Cold War Russia’s capabilities were measured in terms of military power. Looking out to 2010, these capabilities will be measured more in terms of economic resources. We believe Russia will remain economically weak through 2010 and beyond.”
http://www.dni.gov/nic/special_globaltrends2010.html#russia
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National Intelligence Council forecast for the year 2025, unveiled in October 2008, describes Russia in very different terms — as one of four rising centers of international power: “In terms of size, speed, and directional flow, the transfer of global wealth and economic power now under way — roughly from West to East — is without precedent in modern history . . . . No other countries are projected to rise to the level of China, India, or Russia, and none is likely to match their individual global clout. . . . Growth projections for Brazil, Russia, India, and China (the BRICs) indicate they will collectively match the original G-7’s share of global GDP by 2040-2050.”
“Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World”. Washington: National Intelligence Council, November 2008 - http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html , pp. vi, vii
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQGa6YAXVSU
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The boom fuelled the politics of conservatism
“Stability” as the key value
Financial resources available to the Kremlin
Putin’s elite
Bureaucracy
The people
Distrust the govt, trust Putin
Yearn for improvement of material conditions
Resent the injustice
The growing middle class
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The Putin Cult
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“As we say in Texas, he’s a stand-up kind of guy” – George Bush of Vladimir Putin
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Vladimir Caesar?
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“Putin’s Ice Cream”, a commercial brand
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-bW80i0e1w
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Opinion polls, 2006-07
Are things in the country moving in the right direction?
36% - Yes
49% - No
Are you confident about the future?
52% - No
20% - Not much
25% - Yes
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Your family’s economic situation?
7% - good/very good
40% - average
31% - bad
Political situation in the country?
4% - favourable
26% - calm
46% - tense
7% - critical, explosive
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Life in general
Not so bad, life is normal – 21%
It’s hard, but one can live – 46%
It’s so bad that it is no longer bearable – 29%
“To live normally” – 12,000 Rb a person a month ($400)
“Minimum to survive” – 5,800 Rb ($150)
“Poor” – 320 Rb ($11)
Real median income – 3,300 Rb ($110) a month .
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How likely are mass demonstrations in your area against deterioration of economic conditions, in defence of people’s rights?37% - quite possible48% - unlikely
Will you take part?26% - most likely yes62% - most likely no
Are demonstrations with political demands possible in your area?24% - yes58% - no