Public School Enrollment Trends 2011-2016 · Public School Enrollment Key Takeaways Public School...

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Public School Enrollment Trends 2011-2016 DC Office of the Deputy Mayor for Education 6/13/17

Transcript of Public School Enrollment Trends 2011-2016 · Public School Enrollment Key Takeaways Public School...

Page 1: Public School Enrollment Trends 2011-2016 · Public School Enrollment Key Takeaways Public School Student Enrollment Changes • Total enrollment started to increase in 2008 after

Public School Enrollment Trends 2011-2016

DC Office of the Deputy Mayor for Education 6/13/17

Page 2: Public School Enrollment Trends 2011-2016 · Public School Enrollment Key Takeaways Public School Student Enrollment Changes • Total enrollment started to increase in 2008 after

Population Key Takeaways

Population Changes

• The District added more than 100,000 people since 2000, driven mostly by an increase in adults.

• The number of children substantially increased in the past five years surpassing the number of children in 1990.

• Between 2010 and 2015, infants and toddlers under age 5 increased by almost 10,000 children.

• The number of 15-17 year olds has been declining since 1990.

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Page 3: Public School Enrollment Trends 2011-2016 · Public School Enrollment Key Takeaways Public School Student Enrollment Changes • Total enrollment started to increase in 2008 after

Public School Enrollment Key Takeaways

Public School Student Enrollment Changes

• Total enrollment started to increase in 2008 after decades of decline, driven by enrollment in public charters and also in DCPS in recent years. – Enrollment in early childhood and elementary grades increased more than

middle and high school grades, and these increases occurred in almost all wards.

– Enrollments in adult and alternative schools also increased substantially in the public charter sector.

• Public school students living in Ward 3 had the greatest percent change increases between 2013 and 2016 in the early childhood, middle school, and high school grades.

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Page 4: Public School Enrollment Trends 2011-2016 · Public School Enrollment Key Takeaways Public School Student Enrollment Changes • Total enrollment started to increase in 2008 after

Education Sector Key Takeaways

Sector Changes

• In SY2016-17, 54% of all public school students are enrolled at DCPS and 46% at a public charter school.

– DCPS captures a greater share of high school students (62%) and elementary students (59%).

– Public charters enroll a greater share of early childhood (53%), middle school students (52%), and adult/alternative students (78%).

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Demographic Key Takeaways

Public Education Demographic Changes from 2013 to 2016

• The PK3-12th grade student population is becoming more diverse.

• The increase in the number of African American students occurred East of the River, primarily in elementary grades.

• The number of Hispanic students increased mostly in Wards 4 and 5, in elementary and high school grades.

• The number of white students increased in smaller numbers, in lower grades, and in all wards west of the Anacostia River.

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Page 6: Public School Enrollment Trends 2011-2016 · Public School Enrollment Key Takeaways Public School Student Enrollment Changes • Total enrollment started to increase in 2008 after

POPULATION TRENDS

Page 7: Public School Enrollment Trends 2011-2016 · Public School Enrollment Key Takeaways Public School Student Enrollment Changes • Total enrollment started to increase in 2008 after

Total Population Trends

The District’s population peaked in 1940. Between 2000 and 2016, the District added more than 100,000 people.

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-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

Source: US Census Bureau 1880-2010 (compiled by the Urban Institute) and 2016 Population Estimates

2016 estimate

Page 8: Public School Enrollment Trends 2011-2016 · Public School Enrollment Key Takeaways Public School Student Enrollment Changes • Total enrollment started to increase in 2008 after

Adult and Youth Population Trends

• Since 2000, the adult population (age 18 and older) has steadily increased.

• The child population as a whole (ages 17 and younger) did not start increasing until after 2010. – The child population increased by 16.5% between 2010 and the 2015 estimate.

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Source: US Census Bureau and 2015 Population Estimates

1990 2000 2010 2015

17 years and under 117,092 114,992 101,340 118,107

18 years and over 489,808 457,067 503,870 554,121

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

17 years and under

18 years and over

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Youth Population Trends by Age Groups

• The number of children started increasing after 2010. Between 2010 and 2015, the District’s youngest children (under age 5) increased by almost 10,000 children.

• 15-17 year olds have steadily decreased since 1990.

• The number of elementary age children (5-9 years old) has fluctuated from decade to decade.

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Source: US Census Bureau and 2015 Population Estimates

1990 2000 2010 2015

15 to 17 years 18,426 17,053 16,897 15,470

10 to 14 years 29,318 30,018 24,926 26,410

5 to 9 years 31,997 35,385 26,158 32,875

Under 5 years 37,351 32,536 33,359 43,352

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

15 to 17 years

10 to 14 years

5 to 9 years

Under 5 years

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PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT TRENDS

Page 11: Public School Enrollment Trends 2011-2016 · Public School Enrollment Key Takeaways Public School Student Enrollment Changes • Total enrollment started to increase in 2008 after

Total Public School Enrollment Trends

Public school enrollment (DCPS and PCS) began increasing annually starting in 2009. Between 2008 and 2016, public school enrollment increased by 26%.

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70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

Total Public School Audited Enrollment, 1990-2016

Passage of the School Reform Act, authorizing public charter schools

Passage of the Public Education Reform Amendment Act, granting mayoral control

Passage of the Pre-K Enhancement and Expansion Amendment Act

Source: OSSE Audited Enrollment

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Total Public School Enrollment Trends, cont’d

• Public charter school enrollment has steadily increased since the School Reform Act authorizing charters was passed in 1997.

• DCPS enrollment started increasing after 2008.

• As of SY2016-17, DCPS enrolled 54% of students and public charters enrolled 46%.

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000Total Public School Audited Enrollment, by Sector, 1990-2016

Total

DCPS

Publiccharter

Source: OSSE Audited Enrollment

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Total Public School Enrollment Trends, cont’d

Over the last 6 years for all public school students (including adult*, alternative*, and special education schools*):

• Public charters grew by 9,944 students (a 32% increase) between 2011 and 2016.

• DCPS increased by 3,364 students (a 7% increase) between 2011 and 2016.

For just PK3-12th* grade students:

• Public charters grew by 8,126 students (a 28% increase) between 2011 and 2016.

• DCPS increased by 3,874 students (a 9% increase) between 2011 and 2016.

*Note: the alternative high-school degree granting schools are included in this category. *See appendix 4 for definitions of these schools.

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PK3-12th 2011 2016 # Change % Change

Charter 28,807 36,933 8,126 28%

DCPS 43,323 47,197 3,874 9%

All Grades 2011 2016 # Change % Change

Charter 31,562 41,506 9,944 32%

DCPS 45,191 48,555 3,364 7%

Source: OSSE Audited Enrollment

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Public School Enrollment By Grade Band, 2011-2016

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• Total citywide growth in enrollment between 2011 and 2016 was greatest in the elementary (KG-5th) and early childhood grades (PK3 and PK4).

• There was also substantial growth in adult and alternative schools (a 36% increase).

• Middle and high school enrollments had slower growth between 2011-2016, with 7% growth in middle school and 5% growth in high school.

*High school enrollment counts include alternative diploma-granting schools

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

Adult/Alt

9th-12th*

6th-8th

KG-5th

PK3-PK4

Public School Student Growth from 2011 to 2016, by Grade Band

2011

2016

Source: OSSE Audited Enrollment

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Sector Differences in Enrollment Change, 2011-2016

• Charter growth occurred across all grade bands but particularly in early childhood, elementary, and adult/alternative

• DCPS enrollment increased the most at the KG-5th grade levels and early childhood.

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*High school enrollment counts include alternative diploma-granting schools

7% 8% 18%

-2%

0%

-21%

32% 24%

45%

17% 13%

71%

18% 16%

27%

7% 5%

36%

-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Total PK3-PK4 KG-5th 6th-8th 9th-12th* Adult/Alt

Enrollment Change 2011-2016 By Sector and Grade Band

DCPS Charter Total

Source: OSSE Audited Enrollment

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Share of Enrollment by Sector and Grade Band, 2011-2016

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• DCPS captures a greater share of high school (62%) and elementary students (59%) compared to the DCPS sector average (54%).

• Public charters enroll a greater share of PK3 and PK4 (53%), middle school (52%), and adult/ alternative students (78%) compared to the sector average (46%).

*High school enrollment counts include alternative diploma-granting schools

47% 59%

48% 62%

22%

53% 41%

52% 38%

78%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

PK3-PK4 KG-5th 6th-8th 9th-12th* Adult/Alt

Share of Enrollment in SY2016-17, by Sector and Grade Band

DCPS Charter

SY16-17 citywide sector shares DCPS: 54%

Charter: 46%

Source: OSSE Audited Enrollment

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Private School Enrollment Trends

• Between 2011-2015, the American Community Survey (ACS) estimates with 90% confidence that between 16.8% and 18.4% of 3-17 year olds attended private school.

• This 2011-2015 estimate is lower than the previous 5-year ACS estimate and the share in 1990 (18.8%). This appears to be driven by a decrease in share 3 and 4 year olds in private school, as described on the next slide.

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Sources: US Census and American Community Survey – see Appendix 5 for more details

18.7%

16.8%

18.8%

16.7%

20.5%

18.4%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

1990 2000 2006-2010 2011-2015

Private School Enrollment for 3-17 Year Olds

Average

Min

Max

Page 18: Public School Enrollment Trends 2011-2016 · Public School Enrollment Key Takeaways Public School Student Enrollment Changes • Total enrollment started to increase in 2008 after

Private School Enrollment Trends, con’t

• When the universe is limited to just 5-17 year olds (and excludes the 3-4 year olds), there is no decrease between the two five-year estimates. – The 2010-2014 ACS estimates that the private school share was between 17.8% and

19.8%. Because this overlaps with the 2011-2015 ACS margins of error, there is no decrease.

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Sources: US Census and American Community Survey – see Appendix 5 for more details

17.8%

16.6% 16.3%

15.1%

19.8%

18.4%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

1900 2000 2006-2010 2011-2015

Private School Enrollment for 5-17 Year Olds

Average

Min

Max

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WHERE PUBLIC SCHOOL STUDENTS LIVE

Page 20: Public School Enrollment Trends 2011-2016 · Public School Enrollment Key Takeaways Public School Student Enrollment Changes • Total enrollment started to increase in 2008 after

Where Do Public School Students Live?

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• Most public school students live in Wards 4, 7, 8 (60% in SY16-17).

– Fewer students live in Ward 2 (2%).

• Between SY13-14 and SY16-17, the distribution of students across the city has not changed significantly.

Source: OSSE Audited Enrollment

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Changes in Where Public School Students Live, 2013-2016

• The number of public school students increased in virtually every grade band and in every ward.

– The greatest increases were in KG-5th grade, particularly in Wards 5, 7, and 8 (21%, 17%, and 16%, respectively).

• Students living in Ward 3 had the greatest increases in early childhood, middle school, and high school grades.

– Early childhood increased by 21%.

– 6th-8th grade band grew by 27%.

– 9th-12th grade band increased by 32%.

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Note: Subsequent analyses focus on 2013-2016 due to

the lack of reliably-geocoded data prior to 2013. See the next two slides for detailed charts

Source: OSSE Audited Enrollment

Page 22: Public School Enrollment Trends 2011-2016 · Public School Enrollment Key Takeaways Public School Student Enrollment Changes • Total enrollment started to increase in 2008 after

Public School Student Population Change by Ward from 2013-2016 (absolute change)

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Ward 1 Ward 2 Ward 3 Ward 4 Ward 5 Ward 6 Ward 7 Ward 8

PK3-PK4 -29 39 76 106 35 224 66 322

KG-5th 259 11 364 773 970 473 1098 1352

6th-8th 40 -23 181 207 -29 82 204 85

9th-12th 180 21 201 258 107 29 50 286

-100

100

300

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

Nu

mb

er o

f St

ud

ents

Absolute Change in Where Public School Students Live Between 2013 and 2016, by Ward and Grade

Source: OSSE Audited Enrollment

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Public School Student Population Change by Ward from 2013-2016 (percent change)

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6%

-3%

21%

14%

21%

17%

4%

-11%

27%

-1%

6%

32%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Total Ward 1 Ward 2 Ward 3 Ward 4 Ward 5 Ward 6 Ward 7 Ward 8

Percent Change in Where Public School Students Live Between 2013 and 2016, by Ward and Grade

PK3-PK4 KG-5th 6th-8th 9th-12th

Source: OSSE Audited Enrollment

Page 24: Public School Enrollment Trends 2011-2016 · Public School Enrollment Key Takeaways Public School Student Enrollment Changes • Total enrollment started to increase in 2008 after

RACE AND ETHNICITY OF PUBLIC SCHOOL STUDENTS

Page 25: Public School Enrollment Trends 2011-2016 · Public School Enrollment Key Takeaways Public School Student Enrollment Changes • Total enrollment started to increase in 2008 after

Increases in Public School Students by Race/Ethnicity from 2013-2016

• The majority of the PK3-12th grade student population is made up of African American students.

• All races/ethnicities have been growing since 2013.

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African American Hispanic White Other

2013 55,851 10,969 6,893 2,567

2014 56,611 11,677 7,725 2,914

2015 57,196 12,346 8,471 2,925

2016 57,822 13,544 9,054 3,110

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Total PK3-12 Public School Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity, 2013-2016

Source: OSSE Audited Enrollment

Page 26: Public School Enrollment Trends 2011-2016 · Public School Enrollment Key Takeaways Public School Student Enrollment Changes • Total enrollment started to increase in 2008 after

What is the racial/ethnic make up of our students?

The racial/ethnic makeup of the PK3-12th grade student population is becoming more diverse as the share of Hispanic and white students has increased since 2013.

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57,822 69%

13,544 16%

9,054 11%

3,110 4%

Share of PK3-12 Students by Race/Ethnicity, SY16-17

55,851 73%

10,969 15%

6,893 9%

2,567 3%

Share of PK3-12 Students by Race/Ethnicity, SY13-14

African American

Hispanic

White

Other

Source: OSSE Audited Enrollment

Page 27: Public School Enrollment Trends 2011-2016 · Public School Enrollment Key Takeaways Public School Student Enrollment Changes • Total enrollment started to increase in 2008 after

Changes in Race/Ethnicity by Ward, 2013-2016

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-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Ward 1 Ward 2 Ward 3 Ward 4 Ward 5 Ward 6 Ward 7 Ward 8

Ab

solu

te c

han

ge in

stu

de

nts

, 20

13

-201

6

Change in Number of Public School Students by Race/Ethnicity by Ward, 2013-2016

African American Hispanic White

• The increase in the number of African American students occurred in Wards 7 and 8.

• The number of Hispanic students increased primarily in Wards 4 and 5.

• The number of White students increased more modestly, primarily in Wards 3, 4, 5, and 6.

Analysis excludes students in adult/alternative schools

Graphic does not include non-geocoded students

Source: OSSE Audited Enrollment

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Changes in Race/Ethnicity by Grade Band, 2013-2016

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• The number of African American students grew between 2013 and 2016, largely due to growth of KG-5th grade students (an increase of 2,567 students, or 11%).

– For all other grade bands, the number of African American students declined.

• The number of Hispanic and White students grew for all grade bands.

– KG-5th grade white students grew by 963 students.

– KG-5th grade Hispanic students grew by 1,192 students.

– 9th-12th grade Hispanic students grew by 951 students.

See the following slide for a detailed chart

Source: OSSE Audited Enrollment

Page 29: Public School Enrollment Trends 2011-2016 · Public School Enrollment Key Takeaways Public School Student Enrollment Changes • Total enrollment started to increase in 2008 after

-1%

11%

-2% -2%

1%

22% 23%

46% 46%

25%

38%

33%

44%

23%

9%

6%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

PK3-PK4 KG-5th 6th-8th 9th-12th

Percent Change in Race/Ethnicity, 2013-2016 by Grade Band

African American Hispanic White Other

Changes in Race/Ethnicity, 2013-2016

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African American K-5th grade students grew from 24,243 in 2013 to 26,810 in 2016

PK3-PK4 white students grew from 1,250 in 2013 to 1,841 in 2016

Hispanic 9th-12th grade students grew from 2,084 in 2013 to 3,035 in 2016

Source: OSSE Audited Enrollment

Page 30: Public School Enrollment Trends 2011-2016 · Public School Enrollment Key Takeaways Public School Student Enrollment Changes • Total enrollment started to increase in 2008 after

Contact Information

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For additional resources, visit the DME Data Resources website

Or contact Senior Policy Advisory Jennifer Comey:

202.727.6588 or [email protected]

Page 31: Public School Enrollment Trends 2011-2016 · Public School Enrollment Key Takeaways Public School Student Enrollment Changes • Total enrollment started to increase in 2008 after

* Nongeocoded: student address could not be assigned to a ward ** High school enrollment counts include alternative diploma-granting schools *** Totals do not include 21 students that are missing a grade in the SY16-17 audited enrollment

Appendix 1: Where Public School Students Live, SY2016-17

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2016 Ward of Residence

Ward 1 Ward 2 Ward 3 Ward 4 Ward 5 Ward 6 Ward 7 Ward 8 Non-

geocoded* Total

PK3-PK4 1,018 303 432 1,834 1,758 1,620 2,397 3,100 67 12,529

KG-5th 3,343 786 2,801 6,163 5,512 3,849 7,566 9,594 212 39,826

6th-8th 1,144 190 841 2,332 1,948 1,319 2,841 3,336 74 14,025

9th-12th** 1,563 270 831 2,922 2,500 1,532 3,813 4,176 143 17,750

Adult/Alternative/Special Education Schools

1,229 182 121 1,566 784 325 663 1,002 38 5,910

Total*** 8,297 1,731 5,026 14,817 12,502 8,645 17,280 21,208 534 90,040

Source: OSSE Audited Enrollment

Page 32: Public School Enrollment Trends 2011-2016 · Public School Enrollment Key Takeaways Public School Student Enrollment Changes • Total enrollment started to increase in 2008 after

Appendix 2: Total Public School Enrollments for Primary Grades, 2011-2016

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Enrollments are listed per grade from 2011 through 2016.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

PK3 PK4 KG 1 2 3 4 5

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Each individual elementary grade experienced increases between 2011 and 2016.

Source: OSSE Audited Enrollment

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Appendix 3: Total Public School Enrollments for Secondary Grades, 2011-2016

Enrollments are listed per grade from 2011 through 2016.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Middle grades have not seen the same citywide growth as elementary grades.

11th and 12th grades have had small increases over the past 3 years.

Source: OSSE Audited Enrollment *High school enrollment counts include alternative diploma-granting schools

Page 34: Public School Enrollment Trends 2011-2016 · Public School Enrollment Key Takeaways Public School Student Enrollment Changes • Total enrollment started to increase in 2008 after

Appendix 4: Definitions of Adult, Alternative, and Special Education Schools

• Adult education schools provide services or instruction below the college level for adults who:

– lack sufficient mastery of basic educational skills;

– do not have a certificate of graduation from a school providing secondary education and who have not achieved an equivalent level of education; or,

– whose native language is other than English and they a have limited ability in speaking, reading, writing, or understanding the English language. See DC Code § 38-2901.

• Alternative education schools provide specialized instruction for students who are:

– under court supervision or who have a history of being on short- or long-term suspension or who have been expelled from school; or,

– who meet other criteria as defined by the State Education Office through rulemaking. See DC Code § 38-2901.

• Special education schools are a separate DCPS or public charter day school or residential schools dedicated exclusively to serving students who are special education students at levels 4 or 5. See DC Code § 38-2901.

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Page 35: Public School Enrollment Trends 2011-2016 · Public School Enrollment Key Takeaways Public School Student Enrollment Changes • Total enrollment started to increase in 2008 after

Appendix 5: Share of Private School Enrollment Data Sources

• The 1990 and 2000 data sources for the share of private school enrollment come from the “long form” of the US Decennial Census. The universe of children vary slightly in each year.

– The 1990 counts for total children does not include children 3-17 not enrolled in school. https://www.census.gov/prod/cen1990/cp3/cp-3-4.pdf, Table 6: School Enrollment and Type of School by Age, District of Columbia

– The 2000 counts for total 3-17 year old children includes children in nursery school. US Census Bureau, Table PCT161: Sex by School Enrollment by Level of School by Type of School for the Population 3 Years and Over

• After 2000, the US Census switched to surveying a sample of the US population annually. The two estimates shown are five-year averages from 2006 through 2010 and 2011 through 2015.

– The graphics on slides 17 and 18 include the average estimation plus the margin of error (the average is the yellow dot and the margin of error is the blue bar above and below). The margin of error is used to calculate the lower and upper confidence bounds (using a 90% probability) that the survey estimate contains the true value.

– American Community Survey, 2006-2010 5-Year Averages, Table B14003: Sex by School Enrollment by Type of School by Age for the Population 3 Years and Over

– American Community Survey, 2011-2015 5-Year Averages, Table B14003: Sex by School Enrollment by Type of School by Age for the Population 3 Years and Over

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