Public Opinion Landscape: Brexit
-
Upload
gloverparkgroup -
Category
News & Politics
-
view
281 -
download
3
Transcript of Public Opinion Landscape: Brexit
International Affairs: BrexitPublic Opinion LandscapeJUNE 2016
PAGE 2
TA B L E O F C O N T ENTSSlide
American Views Toward Europe and the EU 3
European Views Toward the U.S. and the EU 8
American & European Views 12
Brexit 17
A m e r i c a n V i e w s T o w a r d E u r o p e a n d t h e E U
Source: Gallup Country Ratings, February 3-7, 2016 PAGE 4
C O U N TRI ES A M E R IC ANS H AV E A FAV O RAB LE O P I N IO N O F
53%
54%
59%
71%
73%
75%
82%
85%
87%
90%
93%
39%
40%
38%
24%
18%
18%
12%
10%
8%
4%
7%
Egypt
Cuba
Mexico
Israel
Brazil
India
Japan
Germany
France
Great Britain
Canada
Favorable Unfavorable
Source: Gallup Country Ratings, February 3-7, 2016 PAGE 5
C O U N TRI ES A M E R IC ANS H AV E A U N FAVOR ABLE O P I NI ON O F
8%
12%
14%
15%
15%
19%
21%
30%
37%
44%
86%
80%
79%
79%
78%
68%
70%
65%
55%
52%
North Korea
Syria
Iran
Iraq
Afganistan
Palestinian Authority
Pakistan
Russia
Saudi Arabia
China
Favorable Unfavorable
PAGE 6
A M E R IC AN V I E W S O F T H E E U R O P EAN U N I O N M O R E P O S IT IVE T H A N N E G AT IVE
53%
39%
47%
56% 57% 55%50% 50%
58%53%
14%
26%22% 23%
20% 22% 21%26% 26% 27%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
% saying they have a _______ view of the EU…
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, April 4-24, 2016
Unfavorable
Favorable
PAGE 7
A M E R IC ANS V I E W E U R OP EAN T I E S A S M O R E I M P O RTANT T H A N A S I A N T I E S
50% 49%44%
37%
50% 52%
31% 31%34%
47%
35%32%
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, April 4-24, 2016
% saying ties to the nations of ________ are most important to the U.S….
Asia
Europe
E u r o p e a n V i e w s T o w a r d t h e U . S . a n d t h e E U
PAGE 9
H O W E U R O PE ANS S E E T H E U . S . , O T H ER P O T ENT IAL T H R EAT S
23%
26%
28%
31%
33%
34%
34%
34%
39%
71%
Hungary
Greece
UK
Germany
Netherlands
Sweden
France
Italy
Spain
Poland
% saying each is a major threat to their country
Source: Pew Research Center Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey
Tensions with Russia
23%
25%
31%
28%
21%
18%
43%
47%
56%
47%
23%
43%
24%
25%
19%
12%
28%
21%
42%
25%
China’s emergence as a world power
U.S. power and influence
PAGE 10
M O S T E U R OPE ANS S E E U . S . A S M O R E I M P O RTANT T H A N A S I A
41%
43%
23%
25%
30%
38%
34%
31%
19%
13%
43%
49%
50%
51%
53%
56%
56%
57%
60%
60%
Germany
Sweden
Hungary
Greece
UK
France
Netherlands
Spain
Italy
Poland
Source: Pew Research Center Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey
Which area do you think is more important to Europe?
Asia U.S.
PAGE 11
E U FAV O RAB ILI TY VA R I ES W I D E LY I N E U R O P E
27%
38%
44%
47%
50%
51%
54%
58%
61%
72%
71%
61%
48%
49%
48%
46%
44%
39%
37%
22%
Greece
France
UK
Spain
Germany
Netherlands
Sweden
Italy
Hungary
Poland
Favorable UnfavorableViews of EU?
Source: Pew Research Center Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey
A m e r i c a n & E u r o p e a n V i e w s
PAGE 13
A M E R IC ANS A N D E U R O PE ANS A G R EE I S I S I S T O P T H R EAT
34%
30%
66%
49%
60%
54%
76%
42%
50%
53%
55%
67%
72%
80%
Tensions with Russia
China's emergence as a world power
Global climate change
Large number of refugees leaving Iraq/Syria
Global economic instability
Cyberattacks from other countries
ISIS
% saying each is a major threat to their country
U.S.Europe median
Source: Pew Research Center Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey. U.S. survey conducted April 12-19, 2016.
PAGE 14
A M E R IC AN A N D E U R O PEA N V I E W S O N G L O B A L E N G A GEM ENT
Source: Pew Research Center Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey, U.S. Survey conducted April 12-19, 2016
40%
40%
45%
51%
52%
60%
65%
67%
77%
83%
Germany
Spain
Sweden
Netherlands
UK
France
Poland
Italy
Hungary
Greece
% who say…
Country should deal with its own problems
11%
50%
28%
30%
40%
46%
28%
52%
33%
65%
24%
39%
25%
24%
29%
45%
27%
44%
34%
57%
Country is less importantthat it was 10 years ago
Global economic engagement is a bad thing
57%U.S. 46% 49%
PAGE 15
A M E R IC ANS, M A N Y E U R OP EAN S WA N T T O F O C U S O N O W N C O U N TRY’ S P R O B LEM S
40%
40%
45%
51%
52%
60%
65%
67%
77%
83%
55%
53%
51%
43%
43%
36%
21%
22%
18%
12%
Spain
Germany
Sweden
Netherlands
UK
France
Poland
Italy
Hungary
Greece
Our country should…
Deal with its own problems and let other countries deal with their own problems
Help other countries deal with their problems
57% 37%U.S.
Source: Pew Research Center Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey, U.S. Survey conducted April 12-19, 2016
PAGE 16
I N G E N E RA L, A M E R IC ANS M O R E N E G ATI VE T O WAR D G L O BA L E C O N OMI C E N G A GEME NT
57%
44%
27%
45%
39%
34%
29%
24%
25%
24%
35%
44%
48%
51%
56%
56%
64%
70%
71%
72%
Greece
Italy
Poland
France
Spain
Hungary
UK
Germany
Sweden
Netherlands
Global economic engagement is a _____
Bad thing because it lowers wages and costs jobs
Good thing because it creates new markets, growth
49% 44%U.S.
Source: Pew Research Center Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey, U.S. Survey conducted April 12-19, 2016
B R E X I T
Source: Financial Times UK’s EU referendum Brexit poll tracker. Updated June 22th PAGE 18
S U P P ORT F O R B R E X IT G R O W S A S W E N E A R V O T E I N U K
40%44% 42%
47% 48% 49%45% 47% 45% 44% 44%
47%44% 43% 43% 43% 44%
44%38% 39% 38% 36% 35% 33%37% 39% 40% 40% 41% 40% 41% 40% 40% 41% 42%
45%
Leave
Remain Remain % Leave % Undecided % Date Pollster
45 44 11 20-Jun-16 Survation
53 46 2 19-Jun-16 ORB
42 44 13 19-Jun-16 YouGov
45 42 13 18-Jun-16 Survation
44 44 12 17-Jun-16 Opinium
42 44 14 17-Jun-16 YouGov
44 43 13 16-Jun-16 YouGov
LATEST POLLS
Source: Financial Times UK’s EU referendum Brexit poll tracker. Updated June 22th PAGE 19
V O L ATI LIT Y I N R E C E NT P O L L I NG
42%
44%38%
48% 48%52%
41%
47% 48%
45% 43% 43%
48% 45%
40%
46%41%
35%41% 42%
43%
44% 44%
55%
47%44%
45% 44%
5/3 5/8 5/13 5/18 5/23 5/28 6/2 6/7 6/12 6/17
Leave
Remain
“ R E M AI N” L E A DS I N B E T T I NG M A R KE TS
Remain (1/4)57%
Leave (3/1)43%
Most Popular Bets
Oddschecker Brexit Referendum Betting Odds June 21
C O N S ID ERATI ONS D R I VI NG V O T I NG B E H AVIO RS
30%
19%29%
4%
9%
9%Which is likely to be better for jobs, investment and the economy generally
Which is likely to help us deal better with the issue of immigration
Which is likely to strike a better balance between Britain's right to act independently, and the appropriate level of co-operation with other countries
Which is likely to maximise Britain's influence in the world
Something else
None of these
Source: YouGov/Times Survey 6/17-6/19
Which ONE of the followingwill be the most important to you in deciding how to vote in the referendum?
W H Y B R I T ONS M I G H T WA N T T O L E AV E
More immigration into Britain,
4%
Less immigration into Britain
54%
Would make no difference to the amount of immigration
30%
Don't know12%
Do you think there would be more or less immigration into Britain if we left the European Union, or would it make no difference?
Source: YouGov/Times Survey 6/17-6/19
Good for NHS34%
Bad for NHS23%
Would make no difference to the NHS
26%
Don't know17%
Do you think it would have a good or bad effect on the NHS if we left the European Union, or would it make no difference?
W H Y B R I T ONS M I G H T WA N T T O R E M A I N
Better off22%
Worse off37%
Would make no real
difference to the British economy
25%
Don't know15%
Do you think Britain would be economically better or worse off if we left the European Union, or would it make no difference?
Source: YouGov/Times Survey 6/17-6/19
Good for jobs21%
Bad for jobs36%
Would make no difference to British jobs
28%
Don't know16%
Do you think it would have a good or bad effect on British jobs if we left the European Union, or would it make no difference?
PAGE 24
E U R O PE ANS O V E R WHEL MING LY A G R EE T H AT U K D E PART URE W O U L D H U R T T H E E U
57%
62%
65%
66%
70%
70%
74%
75%
89%
23%
32%
14%
11%
16%
10%
16%
17%
8%
Italy
France
Greece
Poland
Spain
Hungary
Germany
Netherlands
Sweden
Source: Pew Research Center Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey
If the UK were to leave the European Union, this would be a ________ for the EU?
Bad thing Good thing
PAGE 25
E U R O PE AN V I E W S A B O U T T H E F U T U RE O F T H E E U
35%
38%
39%
39%
40%
43%
44%
47%
65%
68%
27%
39%
21%
26%
35%
25%
29%
38%
25%
18%
30%
9%
34%
21%
17%
26%
24%
13%
6%
8%
Spain
Poland
France
Italy
Hungary
Germany
Netherlands
Sweden
UK
Greece
Some powers should be returned to national govts
Division of powers should remain the same
National govts should transfer more powers to EU
Source: Pew Research Center Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey
Which statement best describes your views about the future of the European Union?
1025 F Street NW, 9th FloorWashington, DC 20004
121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor New York, NY 10010
202.337.0808 | GPG.COM
For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:
Jason Boxt ([email protected])
G P G R e s e a r c hG P G h a s a f u l l - s e r v i c e r e s e a r c h t e a m o f f e r i n g a f u l l c o m p l e m e n t o f q u a l i t a t i v e a n d q u a n t i t a t i v e p u b l i c o p i n i o n , a s w e l l a s d i g i t a l , r e s e a r c h s e r v i c e s . W e u s e r e s e a r c h t o i n f o r m m e s s a g e d e v e l o p m e n t a n d c o m m u n i c a t i o n s t r a t e g y , a s w e l l a s t o h e l p c l i e n t s a s s e s s a n d m o n i t o r c r i t i c a l i s s u e s a n d t r a c k t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f s t r a t e g i c c o m m u n i c a t i o n c a m p a ig n s .G P G h a s e x t e n s i v e e x p e r i e n c e c o n d u c t i n g r e s e a r c h o n c o m p l e x i s s u e s a n d p o l i t i c a l t o p i c s w i t h d i v e r s e a u d i e n c e s . W e g o b e y o n d t h e s t a n d a r d Q & A , u s i n g i n n o v a t i v e , p r o j e c t i v e t e c h n i q u e s t o u n c o v e r k e y i n s i g h t s . T h e r e s u l t i s a c t i o n a b l e r e s e a r c h t h a t h e l p s s h a p e o u r c l i e n t s ’ m e s s a g i n g a n d s t r a t e g y .