Public Opinion?

Chapter 7

Public Opinion and Democracy

• If we are a government “of, by, and for the people” why do they do so many things we don’t agree with?– People want a balanced budget—we have the largest

deficit in history– People agreed with the Equal Rights Amendment—it

didn’t pass– People want term limits for Congress—not even coming

close to getting that• So is the government simply not listening to the

people? Why do we pay these guys to go to D.C.?

Public Opinion and Democracy

• While it is easy to be cynical, there is a reason that the government does not do what we want– First, have you tried to figure out what someone

else wants? Not easy…now try 370 million people• Remember that there are different “publics”—they don’t

all agree on a given point, what do you do then?• Can you trust public polls?

– Second, the goals of the government are not “give the people what they want” rather, the Preamble clearly states what they are supposed to do.

What is Public Opinion?

• Do you support the Monetary Control Bill?– 21% yes– 25% no– The rest said I don’t know…they were the smart ones

• There is no such thing as the MCB—it was made up– Despite this evidence, political scientists say we

should still value public opinion• Why?

How Polling Works

• We can know what 300 million people think by interviewing 1500 if the poll is done correctly

• This includes:– Asking questions that they have some basis for

forming an opinion– Wording questions fairly (no “loaded/emotional”

language)

How Polling Works

• Random Sampling– You need to choose the participants at random (sort of)– Find an area where lots of the demographics are likely to be

• Don’t go to a BMW showroom and expect to find the middle and lower class people

– A mall, grocery store, or street corner would be likely to produce correct results

• You could end up with a sampling error– You did the survey twice in two different areas and got

different results– A small percentage is normal, you will not get exactly the same

results.

How Polling Works

• Who’s going to win the 2012 election?– Shrugging your shoulders? You’re not alone…– In elections that have a margin of less than ~5% it is hard to tell

who will win– When likely voters are polled we currently see a 51-46% spread

(Romney @ 51%)– Why is this not necessarily accurate?

• On election day exit polls will be conducted– These are questions asked to random people coming out of the

voting booths– They are usually a good indicator of what the outcome will be

• Why are they not a 100% indicator?

How Polling Works

• Polls are often somewhat inaccurate due to their collection methods– Exit polling ignores early voters and absentee ballots– Polls via phone calls ignore “hard to contact” people– Not to mention the fact that you may simply ask the

wrong questions of the wrong people• If you ask someone who is indifferent to gay rights if they

will vote for one person over another based on their position on the issue, you are not getting a very valuable piece of information

How Opinions Differ

• Opinion saliency– Some people care more about certain issues than

others• Opinion stability– Some opinions are consistent while others are more

volatile (wishy-washy)• Opinion-policy congruence– Government policy is in sync with some of the

majority’s views while other issues they are out of sync

Reading Charts

• Read the charts on page 160-162– Summarize (make generalizations) about each

chart• Explain what information is valuable and why a

politician or policymaker would need to know that information

• Due Wednesday!