M A R I L Y N R U B I N

J O H N J A Y C O L L E G E , T H E C I T Y U N I V E R S I T Y O F N E W Y O R K ( C U N Y )

A U G U S T 2 0 1 4

PUBLIC MANAGEMENT CHALLENGES

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Bom Dia

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My Presentation

My presentation will focus on several challenges to public management in the U.S. and in countries around the world.

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Challenges

Changing demographics;

Proliferating information and communication technology;

Increasing globalization;

Escalating urbanization;

Sustainable development;

Growing public debt; and

Declining trust in government.

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1. Changing Demographics

By the middle of the 21st century, it is estimated that there will be close to 100 million more people living in the U.S. than there are today.

Not only will the population increase in size but it will be older and will live longer.

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Changing Age Distribution of Population 6

As birth rates drop to historic lows and the average age of death rises, the 13% of American's population that is currently 65 years old and older is forecast to reach about 20% by 2050.

The Aging Population

The aging of the population is not unique to the U.S.

By 2050, the number of older people in the world will exceed the number of young for the first time in history.

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In Brazil 8

In Brazil, between 1999 and 2009, the proportion of the population 60 years of age and older grew from 9.1% to 11.3%. By 2050, it is forecast that at least 30% of the population will be at least 60 years of age.

Challenges of an Aging Population 9

Not all countries, especially those in developing stages, are experiencing this aging phenomenon, but demographic changes are transforming the world.

It is putting a growing strain on social insurance, pension systems and social support systems and increasing demand for public-health expenditures.

It is creating an environment for political confrontation between generations with different priorities.

2. Information and Communications Technology

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Information and communications technology (ICT) has transformed society over the last 30 years.

75% of the global population has access to a mobile phone. In some countries, more people have access to a mobile phone than to a bank account, electricity or clean water.

Half of the world's population will have access to the internet by 2030, up from 34% in 2012.

ICT Challenges 11

The digitization of so many aspects of people’s lives and government and business operations presents an enormous opportunity for improved efficiency and productivity.

But

Governments will face increasing pressure to protect their citizens and businesses, their own operations and the security of their nations from threats.

More ICT Challenges 12

The digital divide - by income and by country

Government sometimes ‘behind the curve’ in adopting IT.

3. Globalization 13

Globalization covers a wide range of topics, ranging from cultural values and information to economics and international trade

From an economic perspective, the core features of globalization are increased free trade between nations, easier movement of capital between borders, and massive increase in foreign investment.

Challenges 14

To ensure that benefits of globalization extend to all countries. This will not happen automatically.

To deal with the fear that globalization leads to instability, which is particularly marked in the developing world.

Challenges (cont’d) 15

The fear in developed nations that increased global competition will lead inexorably to a race to the bottom in for example, wages, labor rights, employment practices and the environment.

The fear, especially in developing nations, of the loss of indigenous cultures, languages, traditions and lands.

4. Increasing Urbanization

By 2030 the world’s population will reach more than eight billion people, two-thirds of whom will reside in urban areas

While most urbanization will occur in developed countries, it will also happen in developing regions of Asia, Latin America and Africa.

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Impact of Urbanization 17

Worldwide, population growth and urbanization will have a dramatic effect on the increased demand for jobs, housing, energy, clean water, food, transportation infrastructure, and human services.

In the U.S. 18

In the U.S., the growth of new suburbs, which began in the 1930s and rapidly accelerated with the baby boom generation, is expected to slow.

In its stead is re-urbanization as many central cities become more attractive alternatives, especially for households with few or no children, downsizing baby boomers and ever increasing transportation costs

Advantages/Disadvantages of Urbanization 19

While arguments can be made for the economies of scale that result from clustering the population in urban centers, there is also a downside.

One potential problem is the demand on housing for different demographic and economic groups.

Other potential downside is the possibility of increased crime and consequent need for enhanced security.

5. Sustainability 20

6. Government Debt

Government’s inability to bring debt under control will affect the capacity to respond to major social, economic, and environmental challenges.

The problem of government debt is not unique to the U.S. and in many countries remains at historic highs.

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Government Debt Around the Globe 22

In the developing world, rather than infusing economies with additional funds to provide needed public services, the repayment of creditors has become a major priority.

According to the World Bank, net public debt flows to developing countries between 1985 and 2010 (i.e., the difference between debt inflows and debt payments) stood at $530 billion - the equivalent of five Marshall Plans.

Challenges of Public Debt 23

To address pressures of high public debt, governments have to develop ways to control their own finances and live within their means.

Government debt can reinforce distrust among nations.

Research is inconclusive as to the impact of public debt on economic growth but the reality is that the need to pay down debt has to be balanced with growing demands for public services—a challenge to public administrators all over the world.

7. Trust in Government 24

In the U.S., a recent poll showed that 51% of the population has a great deal/fair amount of trust in the executive branch of the federal government, down 22 percentage points from the 73% in 1972.

In regard to Congress, 34% has a great deal/fair amount of trust, down 37 percentage points from 71% in 1972.

Trust in Government Declining Across Globe 25

Trust in government has dropped drastically across the globe according to survey results published today looking at attitudes towards key institutions across 25 countries.

The 2012 Edelman Trust Barometer results recorded a nine point drop in the worldwide total, giving an overall score of 43% for trust in governments.

Brazil had the largest drop recorded of all the countries surveyed - 53% point change over two years

Trust in Government (cont’d) 26

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AonYZs4MzlZbdDBGcUZreUVfd1dLNmQybERpWkpRY2c#gid=2

Challenges to Declining Government Trust 27

The declining trust in government may be the biggest challenge we face today in public administration.

Some Closing Thoughts 28

These challenges are daunting.

But legal, economic, and moral motivators can combine to induce governments to collaborate and address the most pressing challenges – challenges too vexing to be handled by just one jurisdiction or one agency or one neighborhood or one nation.

And finally, 29

More than 50 years ago, President Kennedy said that most of the problems that come to government are administrative.

If this is true, then we, as public administrators, certainly have our work cut out for us.

Obrigada

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