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    WB456286Typewritten Text82409

  • How Cutting Pollution Can Slow Warming and Save Lives

    On Thin Ice

    October 2013

    A Joint Report of The World Bank The International Cryosphere Climate Initiative

  • 2013 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank and International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI) The World Bank: ICCI:1818 H Street NW 1496 Church Hill Rd.Washington DC 20433 Charlotte, VT 05445Telephone: 202-473-1000 802-482-5205Internet: www.worldbank.org www.iccinet.org

    This work is a joint product of the World Bank and the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI) with external contributions.The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.

    Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because the World Bank and ICCI encourage dissemination of their knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org.

    All photos courtesy of Shutterstock.com except for page 32, which is courtesy of the Himalayan Stove Project.

  • iii

    Contents

    Acknowledgements vii

    Glossary of Keywords and Phrases ix

    Acronyms xiii

    Foreword (The World Bank) xvii

    Foreword (International Cryosphere Climate Initiative) xi

    Main Messages 1

    1 Introduction 7

    2 State of the Cryosphere: 2013 11

    2.1 Climate Change Impacts in Five Cryosphere Regions 112.1.1 The Himalayas 112.1.2 The Arctic 122.1.3 East African Highlands 142.1.4 Andes and Patagonia 152.1.5 Antarctica 16

    2.2 Pan-Cryosphere Feedbacks: Albedo, Permafrost Melt, and Sea-level Rise 172.2.1 Albedo 172.2.2 Permafrost 172.2.3 Sea-level Rise 18

    3 The Role of Short-lived Pollutants in Cryosphere Protection 21

    3.1 Early Arctic and Himalayan Work 213.2 Slowing Near-term Warming: The UNEP/WMO Assessment 213.3 Why Short-lived Pollutants Have Greater Cryosphere Impact 22

    4 Methods, Measures and Reductions 25

    4.1 Improvements in Models, Emissions Estimates, and Cryosphere Impacts 254.2 Stoves 274.3 Diesel 274.4 Open Burning 274.5 Flaring from Oil and Gas 28

  • On thin ice: hOw cutting pOllutiOn can slOw warming and save lives

    iv

    4.6 Note on Black Carbon Measures Not Included 284.7 Methane Sources and Modeled Reduction Measures 29

    4.7.1 Fossil Fuel Extraction 294.7.2 Waste 304.7.3 Agriculture 30

    5 CryosphereBenefits:WhereHealthandClimateIntersect 33

    5.1 The Himalayas 345.2 The Arctic 375.3 East African Highlands 385.4 Andes and Patagonia 405.5 Antarctica 415.6 Pan-CryosphereBenefits 42

    5.6.1 Loss of Albedo: Sea Ice and Snow Cover 435.6.2 Permafrost Loss 445.6.3 Sea-Level Rise 44

    5.7 GlobalBenefits 465.7.1 GlobalHealthBenefits 465.7.2 GlobalCropandForestryBenefits 485.7.3 GlobalClimateBenefits 48

    5.8 Black Carbon: Radiative Forcing and Regional and Global Uncertainties 49

    6 Discussion: Implications for Sectoral Actions 55

    6.1 Biomass Cookstoves 556.2 Biomass and Coal Heating Stoves 566.3 Open Burning 576.4 Diesel 576.5 Oil and Gas Flaring 576.6 A New Measure: Wick Lanterns 586.7 Methane Measures 58

    6.7.1 Oil and Gas Extraction and Mining Operations 586.7.2 WastewaterandLandfills 596.7.3 Agriculture 59

    6.8 Operational Implications for Development Financing 59

    7 Bibliography 63

    AnnexI:BenMap/FaSSTGlobalandNationalHealthImpactTables 71

    Summary Results 71Annex II. Modeling Methods and Parameters 79

    Background 79Emissions 79

  • Contents

    v

    Composition-Climate Models 81Methodology for Forcing Estimates 83Health and Crop Impact Analysis 86

    Figures

    Figure ES 1: Land Glacier Ice Loss 1Figure ES 2: Percentage Change in Arctic Summer Ice and Boreal Spring Snow in 2050

    Due to Full Implementation of Black Carbon and Methane Measures by 2030 3

    Figure 1: Predicted Percentage of Glacial Melts Contributing to Basin Flows in the Himalayan Basins 12

    Figure 2: Arctic Monthly Sea Ice Extent 19532013 13Figure 3: Land Glacier Ice Loss 15Figure 4: Impact of SLCP Measures on Warming by Latitude 22Figure 5: Regions Used in the Calculation of Radiative Forcing 34Figure 6: Average Radiative Forcing Estimates for the Himalayas for a Range

    of Potential Black Carbon Emissions Reductions 36Figure 7: Average Radiative Forcing Estimates for the Arctic from Black Carbon

    Emissions Reductions 38Figure 8: Average Radiative Forcing Estimates for East Africa from Black Carbon

    Emissions Reductions 39Figure 9: Average Radiative Forcing Estimates for the Andes from Black Carbon Reductions 41Figure 10: Average Radiative Forcing Estimates for Antarctica for Black Carbon Measures 43Figure 11: Percentage Change in Boreal Summer (JuneAugust) Arctic Ice Cover in 2050

    Due to Full Implementation of Methane and Black Carbon Measures by 2030 43Figure 12: Percentage Change in Boreal Springtime (MarchMay) Snow Cover in 2050

    Due to Full Implementation of Black Carbon and Methane Measures by 2030 44Figure 13: Soil Temperature and Permafrost Warming by 2090 44Figure 14: AR5 Projections of Global Mean Sea-level Rise over the 21st Century Relative

    to 19862005 45Figure 15a: Sea-level Rise (Thermal Expansion Only) with SLCP Measures 45Figure 15b: Sea-level Rise (Including Projected Land Ice Melt) with SLCP Measures 46Figure 16: Regional Distribution of Avoided Premature Mortality in 2030 47Figure 17: Annual Average Avoided Surface Warming Attributable to the 0.32 W m2

    Reduction in Forcing Stemming from the Methane Emission Reductions Based on 10 CMIP5 Simulations 50

    Figure 18: Probability Density Functions (pdfs) for the Total Forcing due to All the Measures 50Figure 19: All Methane and Black Carbon UNEP/WMO Assessment Measures 51

    Figure A 1: Change in 2030 Anthropogenic Emissions Relative to the Reference for Each Measure by Emitted Component 80

    Figure A2A4: Changes in 2050 Regional Radiative Forcing by Measure forThreeAssumptionsonStrengthofAerosolIndirectEffects 85

  • On thin ice: hOw cutting pOllutiOn can slOw warming and save lives

    vi

    Figure A5A6: Changes in 2050 Regional Radiative Forcing by Measure forThreeAssumptionsonStrengthofAerosolIndirectEffects 86

    Figure A7: Comparison of the Ozone plus Aerosol Direct, Aerosol Indirect, and Total Forcing inResponsetotheIndicatedMeasuresasCalculatedbyDifferentModels 87

    Figure A8: Relationship between Percentage Reduction in Biomass and AOT40, on an Annual Basis, for the Deciduous, Sensitive trees Species Category, Represented by Beech and Birch 89

    Tables

    Table ES 1: Modeled Reduction Measures 4

    Table 1: Black Carbon Sources and Modeled Reduction Measures Assessed 26Table 2: Methane Sources and Modeled Reduction Measures Assessed 29Table 3: Primary Cryosphere Black Carbon Source Regions 33Table 4: Estimated Premature Mortality Avoided based on the U.S. EPAs BenMAP tool

    and the European Commission Joint Research Centers FaSST Tool 47Table 5: Annual Increase in the Yield of Four Staple Crops Due to the Surface Ozone Change

    Associated with each Black Carbon Measure and All Methane Measures Combined 48Table6:PercentageofMethaneReductionsAvailablefromtheDefinedMeasuresasModeled 58

    Table A 1: Global Avoided Premature Mortality by Scenario 71Table A 2: Country-level Avoided Premature Mortality by Scenario 72TableA3:Black-Carbon-RelatedMeasuresIdentifiedasMitigatingClimateChange

    and Improving Air Quality which have a Large Emission Reduction Potential 80Table A 4: Simulations Performed by the Composition-Climate Models 83Table A 5: UNEP-based and Bond-based Values for Anthropogenic Forcing used as Calibration 84TableA6:DistributionoftheeffectofexposurereductionofPM2.5(g/m3) on total DALYs

    and deaths for ALRI, COPD, IHD, Lung cancer and Stroke in Peru 145TableA7:DistributionoftheeffectofexposurereductionofPM2.5(g/m3) on total DALYs

    and deaths for ALRI, COPD, IHD, Lung cancer and Stroke in Peru 145

    Boxes

    Box1:ModeledBenefitsintheHimalayas 35Box 2: Capturing All Health Impacts from Cookstove Interventions 36Box3:ModeledBenefitsintheArctic 37Box4:ModeledBenefitsintheEastAfricanHighlands 39Box5:ModeledBenefitsintheAndesandPatagonia 40Box6:ModeledBenefitsinAntarctica 42Box7:ForestryBenefits 49

  • vii

    Acknowledgments

    The World Bank and International Cryosphere Climate Initiative would like to thank the modeling teams, the members