Protect Your Business This Hurricane Season - Agility … · Protect Your Business This Hurricane...

Protect Your BusinessThis Hurricane Season

Dr. Gerry Bell, Ph. D., NOAA/NWS/Climate Prediction CenterBob Boyd, President & CEO, Agility Recovery

For copies of the slides presented during today’s session,please visit:

http://agil.me/sba2014hurricaneprep

Agenda

Dr. Gerry Bell1. NOAA’s 2014 hurricane season outlooks

Bob Boyd2. Preparing YOUR Organization3. Lessons Learned

Dr. Gerry BellNOAA Climate Prediction Center

• Lead Atlantic hurricane seasonal forecaster at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center

• His research led to the establishment of NOAA’s seasonal Atlantic hurricane outlooks in 1998

• Specializes in monitoring global climate variability, especially patterns related to the El Niño, the multi‐decadal cycle, and other large‐scale atmospheric processes.

• Published multiple times, appeared on many major broadcast networks, and given many lectures on tropical weather

• Received the prestigious NOAA 2005 Isaac Cline Award for his leading role in developing NOAA’s seasonal Atlantic hurricane outlooks.

NOAA’s Hurricane Season Outlooks

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/hurricane

Gerry Bell, Ph. D., NOAA/NWS/Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/hurricane

NOAA’s Seasonal Outlook Regions

1. Features of NOAA’s hurricane season outlooks

Atlantic BasinStorm Tracks 1980‐2005

Central and Eastern North Pacific Storm Tracks 1980‐2005

Central Pacific Eastern Pacific

Figure Courtesy of Wikipedia

NOAA issues seasonal hurricane outlooks for the Atlantic basin, the central North Pacific, and the eastern North Pacific.

Main Development Region

2. NOAA’s 2014 hurricane season outlooks

NOAA’s 2014 Hurricane Season Outlooks

NOAA’s outlooks indicate expected overall seasonal activity. They are not a seasonal hurricane landfall prediction. Persons in hurricane‐prone regions should prepare every year regardless of the seasonal outlook.

AtlanticNear- or Below- Normal

8-13 Named Storms3-6 Hurricanes

1-2 Major Hurricanes

Eastern PacificNear- or Above Normal

14-20 Named Storms6-11 Hurricanes

3-6 Major Hurricanes

Central PacificNear- or Above Normal

4-7 Tropical Cyclones

2014 Expected Season Strength Compared to Past Seasons

•ACE index measures overall season strength by accounting for the combined number, intensity and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes.

•A high activity era for Atlantic hurricanes began in 1995. These period typically last 25‐40 years. The last high‐activity era was 1945‐1970.

3. The Atlantic outlook from a historical perspective

Comparing Atlantic high‐ and low‐activity eras

58

02468

10

1971-1994 1995-2012

Atlantic Hurricanes

Average Hurricanes Per Season

Since 1995, the number of hurricanes has increased by 60% compared tothe 1971‐1994 period, and the number of major hurricanes has more thandoubled.

1.5

3.7

0

1

2

3

4

1971-1994 1995-2012

Atlantic Major Hurricanes

Average Major Hurricanes Per Season


High‐activity era Low‐activity era High‐activity era Low‐activity era

Hurricane landfalls during Atlantic high‐ and low‐activity eras

1.3

1.9

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1971-1994 1995-2012

US Hurricane Landfalls

Average U.S. Hurricane Landfalls Per Season

Since 1995 the number of U.S. hurricane landfalls hasincreased by almost 50% compared to the 1971‐1994 average.


High‐activity era Low‐activity era

4. Science behind NOAA’s 2014 Atlantic hurricane season outlook

Competing Climate factors1. Favoring More activity: Ongoing high activity era for

Atlantic hurricanes

2. Favoring Less activity: El Niño likely.

3. Favoring Less activity: Near‐average Atlantic sea‐surface temperatures

Model ForecastsClimate models predict El Niño and also predict a near‐or below‐normal Atlantic hurricane season.

Science Behind NOAA’s 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook


This Multi‐Decadal Climate Pattern Produces High Activity Era for Atlantic Hurricanes

This climate pattern (called the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi‐decadal Oscillation‐ AMO) lasts 25‐40 years, and produces high‐activityera for Atlantic hurricanes: warmer waters, reduced wind shear,favorable winds that strengthen cloud systems coming from Africa.

Warmer

Warmer

Stronger West African Monsoon


Typical El Niño Impacts on Hurricanes

El Niño is a periodic warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean. It lasts about 9‐12 months and occurs roughly every 3‐5 years. El Niño has big climate impacts.

El Niño mainly affects hurricane activity by changing the vertical wind shear. Strong wind shear can prevent hurricanes from forming, and can also kill an existing hurricane.

Warm, Wet

More Hurricanes due toweaker vertical wind shear.

Fewer hurricanes due tostronger vertical windshear

El Niño strengthens the wind shear, suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity .

WEAK SHEAR = FAVORABLE

low clouds

high cloudsSTRONG SHEAR = UN FAVORABLE

EY

E

LOWER-LEVEL WINDS

UPPER-LEVEL WINDSUpper-level WindsWinds near 35,000 ft

Lower-level WindsWinds at 5000 ft.

El Niño strengthens the upper‐level winds, resulting in strongvertical wind shear.

Winds near 35,000 ft

Winds at 5000 ft.


U.S. Hurricanes Landfalls during El Niño

5. U.S. Hurricane landfalls

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

All Regions AtlanticCoast

Gulf Coast

Percent of Seasons with At Least One Hurricane Landfall

All Seasons

El Niño

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

All Regions AtlanticCoast

Gulf Coast

Percent of Seasons with Multiple Hurricane Landfalls

All Seasons

El Niño

• The probability of at least one U.S. hurricane landfall is not affected by El Niño.

• During El Niño, we see a far lower percentage of seasons with an Atlantic coast hurricane landfall.

• During El Niño, both the Atlantic and Gulf coasts experience a lower percentage of seasons with multiple hurricane landfalls.

Summary

6. Summary

• A near‐ or below‐ normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season is expected.

• Atlantic high‐activity era began in 1995. These typically last 25‐40 years.

• Large build‐up of the U.S. Atlantic Coast and Gulf Coast since 1970.

• Hurricanes NOT just a coastal event; impact millions in many different ways.

• Always prepare for every hurricane season regardless of the seasonal outlook.

ARE YOU PREPARED for the 2014 Hurricane Season?

QUESTIONS?

STAY TUNED for the best ways to prepare YOUR Organization for the threats of

Tropical Weather Systems…

Gerry Bell, Ph. D.NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Is YOUR Organization Prepared for the 2012 Hurricane Season?

Preparedness Steps andLessons Learned

Bob BoydPresident & CEOAgility Recovery

1. Assess risks to your critical operational functions. 2. Back‐up your data & ensure remote access. 3. Advise your supply chain of actions taken. 4. Activate crisis communication plan & Test It.5. Re‐supply emergency kits.6. Establish contact with your insurance provider.7. Consider the need for alternate locations.8. Ensure Employees are Personally Prepared.

9.**Note – Steps above do not constitute a complete plan.A full Disaster Recovery Business/Continuity Strategy

is required for maximum resilience.

Key Steps To Preparedness

• What types of emergencies have occurred in the past following storms in your area?

• What could happen as a result of your office location(s)?

• What types of issues could result from the design or construction of your facilities?

• What could result from a process, system or supply chain failure?

• Are there different risks for short and long term interruptions?

• Are transportation or communication system failures likely?

• Are critical employees personally prepared to endure the storm?

Assessing Risks to Critical Functions

• Realize the limitations of outsourced IT Management

• Lack of Responsiveness• Staffing/Availability• Communication Gaps

• Automated, Daily back‐ups.

• Store in an off‐site, secure location, outside of your region

• Test a full restoration regularly to remote location or secondary servers. Document the time & bandwidth resources required

Backing Up Data Properly

• Talk to your key vendors and suppliers about their recovery plans.

• Ask yourself has it been tested?• Develop relationships with alternate vendors.

• Eliminate single points of failure.• Educate your clients about the importance of preparedness.

• Insure what can’t be protected.• Ensure your crisis scenario doesn’t have supply chain holes

• Keep partners just as informed as your employees during recovery

Supply Chain: the external vendors and suppliers you rely on todeliver your everyday services and products to members/customers.

Preparing Your Supply Chain

• Develop a process to make sure all stakeholders (internal and external) are aware of decisions and expectations.

• Ensure redundancies independent of cell or terrestrial networks as much as possible› Ensure Phone List is UP‐TO‐DATE (with alternate phone #’s)› Utilize multiple cellphone network carriers if possible› Establish phone tree › Password protected web page (centralized emergency status)› Social Media strategy & usage› E‐mail alert (have primary & secondary email addresses)› Call‐in recording system› Text/Data Alert system – Ensure everyone familiar with system

• Manage customer and key vendor communications.• Prepare a media communications plan.• Test the plan regularly and in the days prior to a “notice

event”Activating Your Crisis Communications Plan

• Recovery plan• Important records

• Insurance policies• Fixed asset inventory• Contracts

• Operating system install disks• Licensing keys/Passwords• Letterhead• Office Supplies• Cash• Flashlight• Battery powered radio• Batteries• Food & Water for those working

the recovery

Re‐Supply Emergency Kits

• Make certain you are insured for all potential risks.• Know the different types of coverage and limits.• Consider business interruption insurance and added expense insurance.• Keep photos of your building, equipment lists and policy information

stored in a safe and secure offsite location.• Maintain an up‐to‐date Asset management program.

MOST losses following hurricanes are due to flooding.Most general policies do not cover flooding. Ensure you fully

understand your coverage and any exposure to risk.Don’t Wait until the Storm is Imminent. Do this Today.

Business Interruption/Resumption Insurance – Coverage to help in rebuilding your company in the event of a business interruption

Added/Extra Expense Insurance – Insurance to cover unexpected added costs in the event of an interruption or unexpected event.

Reviewing Your Insurance Coverage

• Mobile Recovery• Delivered to a specific location.• Ideal for small to medium sized business. • High level of flexibility.• Cost effective solution.

• Hot Site Recovery• Permanent, regionalfacility. Fixed Site.

• First come, first servedat time of disaster.

• Susceptible to same risks• Oversubscription

• Other Alternatives• Reciprocal agreement• Internal• Co‐Location

Considering an Alternate Location

1. Do they have a plan?a) Evacuation/Shelter planb) Critical Document Storagec) Emergency Alert Systemd) Emergency/Go Kit

2. How can your organization help?a) Workshopsb) Checklistsc) Emergency Kitsd) Family Involvement

Days

Preparing Employees

• Ensure Employee’s knowledge of your plan & their roles. (including new hires)

• Ensure any Work-From-Home Strategies in place are tested

• Cross-Train Employees for critical roles

• Refuel company vehicles prior to the storm making landfall

• Understand ways to help employees:

• Consider car pooling

• Flex Scheduling

• Offering onsite day care

Preparing Employees

Common Failures&

Lessons Learned

Bob BoydPresident & CEOAgility Recovery

Power: Generator on site• Lack of Mobility?•Maintenance Up‐to‐Date?• Refueling Capability / Access• Backup to the backup?

Alternate Site: Reliance on Hot/Cold Sites•Over Subscribed• Transportation Costs/Difficulties• Shared Sites • Inflexible Solution

Have access to multiple Generators throughout the region

Set up Fuel Providers Perform Regular

maintenance Know a local Electrician

Have options OTHER than a permanent site

Understand Employee Disruption if relocating

Know the full implications of relocation (lodging, transportation, childcare)

Better Options:

Common Failures

Mistakes made during a Crisis

Mistakes made during a Crisis

Communications: Rely on a Single Provider• Single Mobile Carrier• Single Email Servers•No land lines•Unfamiliarity with texting

Work from Home Strategy: Will it work?• Low Productivity• Connectivity Issues (Power/Internet)•Distractions•Unable/Unwilling to report for duty

Have a backup Communications provider

Alert Notification System Use Phone Redirection and

know how it works Have a backup Voicemail &

Email Network (Gmail)

Better Options:

Relocating Employees Having a Plan for displacing

of families Seek locations that offer

familiar surroundings & lifestyle

Restore the “normal” routine sooner

Common Failures

Detailed Preparedness and Recovery Checklists:

www.PrepareMyBusiness.org

Ready.gov Hurricane Preparedness Information:

http://www.ready.gov/hurricanes

National Hurricane Center – Tropical System News & Information:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

American Red Cross – Emergency Kits, etc.

http://www.redcrossstore.org/

American Red Cross – Hurricane Mobile App

http://www.redcross.org/mobile‐apps/hurricane‐app

Additional Links & Resources

QUESTIONS?

Today’s session has been recorded.Links to the archived recording will be emailed

to all registrants automatically tomorrow.

For copies of the slides presented during today’s session,please visit http://agil.me/sba2014hurricaneprep

Bob Boyd, President & CEOAgility Recovery

[email protected]‐927‐7922

Protect Your Business This Hurricane Season - Agility … · Protect Your Business This Hurricane...

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