Prosperity in the Age of Decline - Warren County CourthouseS&P500 Stock Prices Index 22 Data Trends...
52
Warren County Office of Economic Development Prosperity in the Age of Decline ITR Economics itreconomics.com Brian L Beaulieu
Transcript of Prosperity in the Age of Decline - Warren County CourthouseS&P500 Stock Prices Index 22 Data Trends...
Warren County Office of Economic Development
Prosperity in the Age of Decline
ITR Economics itreconomics.com Brian L Beaulieu
ITR Economics provides the best economic intelligence to reduce
risk and drive practical and profitable business decisions.
Duration 2015 Forecast Result Accuracy
US GDP 18 $16.632 Trillion $16.442 Trillion 98.9%
US Ind. Prod. 17 108.3 (12MMA) 107.1 98.9%
Eur Ind. Prod. 15 100.4 (12MMA) 103.3 97.1%
Canada Ind Prod 17 361.2 (12MMA) C$351.2 97.2%
China Ind Prod 22 607.0 (12MMA) 598.3 98.6%
US Housing 17 1.090 Mils. Units 1.111 Mils. Units 98.1%
US Retail Sales 13 $2.248 Trils deflated $2.244 Trils deflated 99.8%
US Employment 21 147.7 Million 148.8 Million 99.3%
2015 Forecast Results 2
2
Real Gross Domestic Product
3MMA
3
10
12
14
16
18
20
10
12
14
16
18
20
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
Sep-15
GDPCON 3MMA
US Industrial Production to Gross Domestic Product
-6.8%
-2.9%
-5.3%
-15.5%
-1.9%
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
GDP US IP
GDP
US IP
Year-over-Year, Quarter-to-Quarter (3/12)
4
US, Ohio & the Midwest Annual GSP Growth Rate
12/12 Rates-of-Change
5
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 U.S. Ohio Midwest
Warren County is 401.3 sq. miles
Pop density ~530 per mile vs. US ~87.4
Ohio to Warren County per Capita Income
Annual data through 2014
Thousands of Dollars
6
$1
$10
$100
$1
$10
$100
1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017
Ohio
Income per Capita, Ohio
Income per Capita, Warren County
Warren County Warren County rising faster than OH
US to Ohio to Warren County Household Income
(median, nominal dollars)
Census Bureau data
Thousands of Dollars
7
Warren County $73,177
Ohio $48,849
USA $53,482
+36.8% vs. US
US to Ohio to Warren County Education Levels Percent of Population over 25
Census Bureau data 8
High School College Grad
Warren County 92.4% 38.7%
Ohio 88.8% 26.5%
USA 86.3% 29.3%
US to Ohio and Warren County Unemployment Rates
9
February 2016
OH 4.9%
US 4.9%
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 U.S. Ohio
Warren County
5.1%
Ohio to Warren County Wage & Salary Jobs (number of jobs)
Annual data through 2014
12/12 Rates-of-Change
10
1.5% 3.1%
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Ohio
Ohio
Warren County
Warren County
Ohio to Warren County Construction Employment
County data through Sep 2015
12/12 Rates-of-Change, Not Seasonally Adjusted
11
2.4%
18.6%
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Warren County Ohio
Ohio
Warren County
County in the top echelon of overall job growth
24.5%
15.5%
5.6% 4.6% 3.9%
3.3%
3.0%
2.5%
2.5%
2.1%
1.9%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.6% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0%
0.9% 0.9%
19.1%
United States
China
Rest of World
Russia
Percent of 2015 World GDP by Country
12
*Total 2015 World GDP:
$73.447 Trillion, US$
Data Source: IMF, *Most are IMF Estimated Figures
US to Ohio to Warren County Population Trends
Overall Population Growth (2010-14/15)
Census Bureau data 13
Warren County 5.4%
Ohio 0.7%
USA 4.1%
This is great
US to Ohio to Warren County Population Trends
But we are getting older….
Annual data through 2014
Thousands of Dollars
14
< 5 yrs old > 65
Warren County 5.9% (6.7%) 13.0% (10.8%)
Ohio 6.0% 15.5%
USA 6.2% 14.5%
Raw
May-14 1.4
Jun-14 1.5
Jul-14 1.5
Aug-14 1.4
Sep-14 1.5
Oct-14 1.3
Nov-14 1.3
Dec-14 1.6
Jan-15 1.6
Feb-15 1.5
Mar-15 1.7
Apr-15 1.6
May-15 1.7
Jun-15 1.7
Jul-15 1.7
Aug-15 1.6
Sep-15 1.7
Oct-15 1.5
Nov-15 1.5
Dec-15 1.9
Jan-16 1.7
Feb-16 1.7
Mar-16 1.9
Apr-16 1.7
3MMT
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.5
4.7
4.8
4.8
5.0
5.0
5.1
5.0
5.0
4.8
4.7
4.9
5.1
5.3
5.3
5.3
12MMT
18.0
18.2
18.4
18.6
18.8
19.0
19.2
19.4
19.7
19.8
20.0
20.2
20.3
12/12
26.7%
25.5%
25.2%
22.4%
20.0%
18.3%
15.4%
12.7%
3/12
15.9%
13.6%
13.6%
14.3%
14.6%
16.7%
13.3%
12.8%
10.4%
10.4%
Data Preparation
15
US Industrial Production to ITR Leading Indicator™
USIP – 12/12 Indicator - Monthly
16
Reported in ITR Trends Report – ITR Advisor
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Indicator US IP
Indicator - Monthly
US IP - 12/12
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Data Source: Chicago Federal Reserve Board
6-Month Moving Average
17
17
-0.1
-3.9
-3.1
-2.3
-1.5
-0.7
0.1
0.9
-3.9
-3.1
-2.3
-1.5
-0.7
0.1
0.9
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
6MMA
US Purchasing Managers Index
18
As seen in the
1/12 Rate-of-Change
Data Source: Institute for Supply Management
-1.0
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
1/12
Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index
19
Above 50 Indicates expansion
Data Source: Institute for Supply Management
56.6
45
50
55
60
65
45
50
55
60
65
'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
MMA R-O-C
Raw Data
12MMA
Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders w/o Aircraft
Billions of Dollars
20
-3.1% -3.6%
$822.1
500
750
1000
1250
1500
-60
-40
-20
0
20
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
MMT R-O-C
3/12
12/12
3MMT 12MMT
S&P500 Stock Prices Index
21
Data Trends
Data Source: Wall Street Journal
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Raw
12MMA
S&P500 Stock Prices Index
22
Data Trends
Data Source: Wall Street Journal
1
400
1
400
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Raw
12MMA
Data Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Real Personal Income Less Transfer Receipts Average per Person Age 18 to 65
12MMA Data Trend
23
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
$55,000
$60,000
US Retail Sales Excluding Gas Stations (deflated)
Trillions of Dollars
24
3.8% 4.2%
2.073
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
MMT R-O-C 3/12
12/12
3MMT 12MMT
Retail Sales
25
12/12 Rates-of-Change
11.3
6.2
5.6
5.1
4.0
3.8
3.7
2.3
2.2
1.1
1.1
0.6
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Online Retailers
Sporting Goods
Furniture Stores
Bldg Materials, Garden, Supplies
Health and Personal Care Stores
Beer, Wine & Alcoholic Beverage
Light Vehicle Sales
Grocery Stores
Clothing Stores
General Merchandise Stores
Automotive Parts Stores
Jewelry Stores
12.1%
11.9%
1.132
0.2
1.0
1.9
2.7
3.5
4.4
5.2
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
MMT R-O-C
3/12
12/12
3MMT 12MMT
Housing Starts
26
Mar ‘13
May ‘11
Dec ‘09
Millions of Units
US to Ohio Housing Unit Building Permits
12/12 Rates-of-Change
27
14.0%
-1.4%
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 U.S. Ohio
Ohio Housing Unit Building Permits
Thousands of Units
28
14.7%
-1.4%
19.9 5
35
65
95
125
155
-105
-70
-35
0
35
70
'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
MMT R-O-C
3/12
12/12
3MMT 12MMT
Owner Occupancy: WC 77.3% OH 66.9% USA 64.4%
Ohio Housing Price Index
Year over Year % Change
29
120
135
150
165
180
195
120
135
150
165
180
195
Raw
Ownership Cost Comparison (includes mortgage)
Warren County $1,617
OH $1,274
USA $1,522
US To Warren County Median Home Sale Price
Data Source: Zillow.com
Annual Data Trends
30
$221.4
$190.2
160
170
180
190
200
210
150
165
180
195
210
225
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
US
US Median Price
Warren County Median Price
Warren County
Ohio to Warren County Median Home Sale Price
Data Source: Zillow.com
Annual Data Trends
31
$133.2
$190.2
155
165
175
185
195
205
105
115
125
135
145
155
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
Warren County Ohio
Ohio Median Price
Warren County Median Price
Crude Oil Futures Prices to Natural Gas Future Prices
32
Raw Data
0
3
6
9
12
15
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
'86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Gas Oil
Oil
Natural Gas
United States Overview Weekly Oil Price & Rig Count
33
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
Jan 2014 Apr 2014 Jul 2014 Oct 2014 Jan 2015 Apr 2015 Jul 2015 Oct 2015 Jan 2016 Apr 2016 Jul 2016
USD/bbl Rig Count
Oil Rigs
WTI Price - Shifted 13 Weeks
Rigs: Weekly Count WTI: Average Weekly Price
US Consumption of Crude Oil & Petroleum Products to Real Gross Domestic Product
34
Data Trends
Data Sources: EIA, BEA
6
10
14
18
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
GDP Trils C2009$
Oil Bils Barrels
Oil Consumption - Raw Data
GDP - 3MMA
Business Cycle Drivers
35
Inflation
Interest Rates
Employment
Consumer
Construction
Consumer Price Index
36
Rates-of-Change
1.0% 0.3%
-3
0
3
5
8
10
-3
0
3
5
8
10
'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
1/12
12/12
Employment – Private Sector
Annual Data Trend
37
85
95
105
115
125
85
95
105
115
125
'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Employment Mils of Jobs
Private Sector Employment Growth
Job Openings
Involuntary Part Time Employment
Quit Rate – Rising
15.9% C 2.3% C
-12.1% A
Millennials: US Population Distribution by Age, 2013
Source: The Council of Economic Advisers 38
BUT WHO ARE THEY AND WHAT DO THEY
WANT AND CAN WE EVER UNDERSTAND
THEM (ARE THEY REALLY OUR
OFFSPRING?)
39
CONFIDENT
VALUE TRANSPARENCY
CONNECTED
WANT TO FIND A BETTER WAY
NOT MUCH MONEY
They are:
Source: Case Foundation, Millennial Impact Project 40
Subject to peer “influence”
Don’t enjoy feeling taken for granted
Want important leadership roles even though
they can’t contribute financially
Need a continuum re: utilizing their professional skills
Equally important: Time = Money = Assets
Do-Gooders
US Overall Wage Growth
0
1
2
3
4
5
'06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Raw Data
Percent
41
Ohio to Warren County Average Annual Wages
Data through Sep 2015
12/12 Rates-of-Change
42
2.3%
4.3%
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Ohio
Ohio
Warren County
Warren County
Warren County Average Annual Wages
Data through Sep 2015
Thousands of Dollars
43
4.3% 3.4%
45.3
25
35
45
55
65
75
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
MMA R-O-C
3/12
12/12
3MMA 12MMA
Source: MIT 44
Living Wage Analysis
1 Adult Working w/1 Child 2 Adults w/ 2 Children
Warren County $20.07 $13.46
Ohio $19.93 $13.39
USA $22.21 $14.74
Warren County = 2.74 persons per household
Makes the County a top 10 as a State
OH 2.46 persons per household
Source: MIT 45
Living Wage Analysis
Professional Manager Bus/Fin Operations
Warren County $88,050 $59.950
USA $91,488 $61,543
Mortgage Rates to Federal Funds
46
Raw Data
Data Sources: Federal Reserve Board WSJ
-2
2
6
10
14
18
22
-2
2
6
10
14
18
22
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Mortgage Rates
Federal Funds
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
FOMC Member Interest Rate Projections
Data Source: Federal Reserve
47
Fed Open Market Committee
March 2016
50
150
250
350
450
35
65
95
125
155
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Construction Index
Index
Construction
US Industrial Production to Non-Residential Construction
48
Private Chemical +63.4%
Warehouse +17.2%
Private Manufacturing +37.9%
Data Trends
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
75
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Orders Expenditures
Expenditures
Orders
National Defense Expenditures to Defense Capital Goods New Orders
12/12 Rates-of-Change
49
Reagan Bush Clinton Bush Carter Obama
Depression Drivers
50
• Demographics
• Inflation
• Health Care Costs / Entitlements
• US National Debt
Actions to take in 2016
51
1. Budget for continued economic growth driven by the consumer
2. Invest in customer market research to reduce price sensitivity
3. Make sure your training and retention programs are top notch
4. Marketing and advertising spending increasingly effective
5. Drive efficiencies with technology
6. Hire sales people and leaders
7. Lock in costs in early 2016
8. Expand credit offerings to garner market share
9. Plan for higher wages and higher energy costs
Email [email protected] with the subject line
52
Warren County
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