Prospects of renewable energy utilisation for electricity generation in Bangladesh

Abstract

Bangladesh has been facing a power crisis for about a decade, mainly because of inadequate power generation capacity compared wi

th demand and the ageing infrastructure of many existing power generation facilities. Only 20% of the total population are connected

to grid electricity--25% in urban areas and a mere 10% in rural areas where 80% of the total population resides. Currently, most pow

er plants in Bangladesh (representing 84.5% of the total installed capacity) use natural gas--the main commercial primary energy sou

rce, with limited national reserves--as a fuel. Electricity supply to low-load rural and remote areas is characterised by high transmiss

ion and distribution costs and transmission losses, and heavily subsidised pricing. Renewable energy sources in Bangladesh, particul

arly biomass, can play a major role to meet electricity demands in the rural and remote areas of the country. The current study indica

tes that in 2003, the national total generation and recovery rates of biomass in Bangladesh were 148.983 and 86.276Â Mtonne, respect

ively. In energy term, the national annual amount of the recoverable biomass is equivalent to 312.613Â TWh. Considering the present

national consumption of biomass, total available biomass resources potential for electricity generation vary from 183.865 to 223.794

 TWh. Biomass energy potential in the individual districts of the country has been estimated for the planning small- to medium-scale

biomass-to-electricity plants.

Promising prospects of rented LNG-

based electricity in Bangladesh

jamil.uddin@tek-energy.com

Bangladesh-PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTSPROBLEMS AND PROSPECTSThe Bangladesh government and the Bangladesh Aid Group have taken seriously the idea that Bangladesh is the test case for development. In the late 1980s, it was possible to say, in the somewhat patronizing tone sometimes adopted by representatives of donor organizations, that Bangladesh had generally been a "good performer." Even in straitened times for the industrialized countries, Bangladesh remained a favored country for substantial commitments of new aid resources from a strikingly broad range of donors. The total estimated disbursement for FY 1988 was estimated at US$1.7 billion, an impressive total but just US$16 per capita. Half of that total was for food aid and other commodities of limited significance for economic growth. Even with the greatest imaginable efficiency in planning and administration, resource-poor and overpopulated Bangladesh cannot achieve significant economic improvements on the basis of that level of assistance. In examining the economy of Bangladesh, wherever one turns the problems crowd in and threaten to overwhelm the analysis. Underlying problems that have threatened the young nation remain unsolved. These problems include overpopulation and inadequate nutrition, health, and education resources; a low standard of living, land scarcity, and vulnerability to natural disaster; virtual absence of valuable metals; and inadequate government and bureaucratic structures. Yet the brief history of independent Bangladesh offers much that is encouraging and satisfying. The World Bank, leader of the Bangladesh Aid Group, described the country in 1987 as a success story for economic development and expressed optimism that the goals of the Third Five-Year Plan, and longer term development goals as well, could be attained. Government policies had been effective in stimulating the economy. The private sector had benefited from an environment of greater economic freedom and had improved performance in banking and production of jute, fertilizer, ready-made garments, and frozen seafood. The average growth rate of economy had been a ste

ady, if unspectacular, 4 percent since the beginning of the 1980s, close to the world average for developing countries. The picture of day-to-day and even year-to-year performance of the economy of Bangladesh is a mixture of accomplishment and failure, not significantly different from that of the majority of poor Third World countries. The government and people of Bangladesh are entitled to take some pride in the degree of success they have achieved since independence, especially when one contrasts their success with the gloomy forecasts of economists and international experts. The international donor community, led by the World Bank, similarly can be proud of the role it has played in assisting this "largest poorest" nation to become a respected member of the family of nations. * * *Works that are useful for gaining a basic understanding of the Bangladesh economy include Bangladesh: Emergence of a Nation by A.M.A. Muhith and The Political Economy of Development by Just Faaland and J.R. Parkinson. Rehman Sobhan's The Crisis of External Dependence provides an insightful critique of the foreign aid sector. Kirsten Westergaard's State and Rural Society in Bangladesh provides information on agricultural development in the context of the relationship between the state and rural society. Articles by Abu Muhammad Shajaat Ali and Akhter Hameed Khan provide agricultural case studies on the village of Shyampur and the Comilla Model, respectively. The Far Eastern Economic Review and Economist both carry timely reports on the state of the economy. Among the most important sources of information on the economy, however, is the documentation provided by various agencies of the governments of Bangladesh and the United States and the World Bank. Important among these is the annual Statistical Yearbook of Bangladesh published by the Ministry of Planning. The Bibliography of Asian Studies each year carries numerous reports on the macroeconomy of Bangladesh and should be consulted for details. (For further information and complete citations, see Bibliography.)

Providing electricity to people

M. Asaduzzaman

Preamble: Discussing the power situation in the country has become a kind of depressing exercise. One apparently sees, literally speaking, darkness all around

. The basic reason, on the face of it, is rather simple. There is not enough supply of power to meet the demand because not enough power has been planned fo

r and produced. The situation had been developing for about two decades without much being done about it except hand wringing and blame games. Many reas

ons for the failure over years may be cited and there is no dearth of such analyses. I myself over years discussed some of the relevant issues including those of

governance of the sector and its reform process. These still remain relevant, of course. However, the most important reason at the moment is that the Governm

ent is unable to ensure the supply of natural gas, the main primary fuel, used to produce electricity. Thus, the country is apparently forced by the exigencies of th

e situation to turn to the present proposed remedy of dual fuel power plants, rental power plants and the like with a heavy dependence on independent power pr

oducers (IPP). Question is if this is enough and if everything that needs to be done is being done with the national interest in mind. While the immediate needs o

f power may be met, if it can be met, by the present measures if these can be implemented, how does the long run prospect look like? I will try to discuss some o

f the related issues in the rest of this brief submission. Let us begin with a short description of the present situation.

At the cost of repetition, let me first draw attention to two aspects of supply of electricity. First, electricity being a transformed energy has to be produced by using

a primary form of energy such as oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear fuel such as uranium and those from renewable sources (such as sunlight, wind, wave, falling wa

ter, or biomass). Even lightning (apparently non-exhaustible though availability at any given time is uncertain) is being experimented with for its capture. In any c

ase, so far technically and commercially most important primary sources are natural gas, coal and oil and wherever available hydropower. If a country does not h

ave an uninterrupted supply of the primary fuel, this must be ensured with proper forward planning for exploration, drilling/mining and/or imports. Apart from the s

upply of primary fuel, there is also a broad management issue regarding electricity supply.

The broad management issue came into prominence worldwide in the 1980's and the 1990's and goes by the name of reform of the electricity sector and had be

en attempted with different degrees of success in many developing countries. The reform process had basically two specific objectives. The first is to separate o

r unbundle the three major elements in the supply chain of electricity which are generation (i.e., production), transmission (i.e., carrying electricity through high te

nsion cables from generation plant to the major consuming centres) and distribution (supplying electricity to the individual consuming units). While transmission a

nd distribution may have their own problems and without a seamless operation of the three elements one can not expect a trouble-free supply, the main problem

now is shortage of generation in comparison to total demand. The shortage occurs mainly, though not entirely, due to the shortage of natural gas which is the m

ain primary fuel for generation of electricity in the country.

Photo: Driknews

The present maximum demand for electricity fluctuates between 4,500 to 5,600 megawatts (MW). This may rise over the next two years to 7,000 MW. The poss

ible maximum generation varies between 3,800 MW and 4,600 MW. The estimated demand supply gap currently is 2,000 MW in peak hours. By 2015, according

to the government, it has plans to raise electricity output to 10,000 MW by 2013 and to 15,000 MW by 2015. These are very ambitious targets. The Governmen

t claims that within the last two years more than 1130 MW has been added as new generation capacity from 21 plants. However there appears to be some confu

sion regarding the information provided by the government. It says in the headline in a newspaper supplement published on 13th January 2011 that the Governm

ent plans to add 14,720 MW of new generation capacity by 2016. It did not say how much of the old capacity will be decommissioned by then. Later in a table in

the same supplement it says that the cumulative production plan (not stated if all of it is new) between 2010 and 2016 is 14,720. Does this plan include or exclu

de the old plants existing before 2010 is not clarified. This is important because most plants existing since before 2009 have more or less outlived their useful liv

es. Whichever is correct, the fact remains that the plan calls for action on a war footing.

Probably this is not happening as one can read between the lines of newspaper reports. The Prime Minister, it is known from various accounts, is very sincere a

nd forthright in her efforts and on occasions she has categorically stated that she wants no excuses from concerned officials and the ministries and given explici

t instructions to take all possible measures for speedy improvement of power supply. Yet, we learns from newspaper reports that a powerful minister who has no

explicit role in power sector development but sits in the relevant purchase committee has blocked the least cost bidding for the 4th or the fifth time for no clear re

ason. So these problems are there and the ambitious target may be missed if the remaining 3 years is used up this way. But there is likely to be at least some pr

ogress as the government has already contracted for 2941 MW of power from 33 plants during the last two years. If these come on stream on time, the situation

will be far more bearable in the not too distant future. But it is the future beyond that we must think about now.

We must note here that our planning process so far has hardly taken demand management, particularly through pricing mechanism, seriously. A half joking idea

is that this is not sexy enough nor is it politically very saleable. As I would concentrate much of my discussion below on the supply side issue of generation and

financing for that in the long run, a few words on demand management should be mentioned here.

Electricity is used for several kinds of services (lighting, heating, cooling, mechanical work such as lifting or motion, entertainment etc.) obtained through the use

of various devices and equipments such as light bulbs for lighting or a motor for lifting water. How far these equipments cost to buy and their efficiency influence

both the consumers' propensity and intensity of use of electricity. And how much they cost depends on the tax and subsidies given for their manufacture directly

or indirectly and on imports. An inefficient bulb may be cheaper to produce but should be taxed compared to an efficient one to change their relative prices so th

at people opt more for the efficient devices and equipments. There is so far no idea in the country how far this has been attempted, if ever at all. There should be

a thorough investigation of these issues by the Ministry of Finance along with the Ministry of Power.

Photo: Liton Rahman/Driknews

Second is the issue of cost of power to the people. This has actually two parts. One is the cost of inefficiency in power production and the second is the cost whe

n this is accounted for. Now the institutional arrangement is that the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) is the immediate sole buyer all power (whet

her produced by it or by the private sector). BPDB uses the facilities of a transmission company called Power Grid Company of Bangladesh (PGCB) against a fe

e or wheeling charge. The power is then sold to the distribution companies such as Dhaka Electric Supply Company (DESCO) which ultimately sells it to the con

sumers (households, commercial and industrial establishments and others). The ultimate charge to the consumers varies by consumer type (domestic, commerc

ial or industrial) and by whether it is retail or wholesale and bulk. The government has very recently raised the retail and wholesale prices where the retail one is

far lower than the wholesale price. Be that as it may, the justification that has been given for the price rise is that the cost of production is going up so the govern

ment needs to adjust the sale prices upwards.

We have already pointed to the inefficiency of the present plants in producing electricity. Analyses done recently indicate that there is about 20% inefficiency on

the average in power production by BPDB. Even if half of this could be averted, there will be substantial increase in supply possibly without any major investmen

t. The inefficiency may be due to several factors, technical, managerial and others. The BPDB or the Power ministry officials usually have little interest in improv

ing the situation in the existing plants. A major technical factor is that many plants have neared or gone past the end of their useful life and running them lowers

over-all efficiency. Given new technology, for example, it is possible to generate more power out of the same amount of gas than before. In fact even then, the c

ost of production of BPDB before the present spate of private and rental contracts had been lower than those by the IPPs (independent power producers). Now

that the emphasis is more on private and quick rentals much of which will depend on liquid fuels (such as diesel and furnace oil) which are far more costly and g

iven current upsurge in prices going to be costlier in future, the cost of supply from the private companies will be far higher than it is now and certainly above tho

se by BPDB. In fact, by 2016, the Government plan is to install (new or whatever) a cumulative capacity of 14, 720 MW of which 8516 or 58% would be from the

private sector. Hence the average cost to BPDB for procuring the electricity generated by that time and between now and then would increase. BPDB already b

eing under heavy cash crunches will have no other way but to pass on the costs or a part of it to the ultimate consumer. There will be an issue of cross-subsidisa

tion across consumer type as well as a block subsidy (if the Government so decides) against the purchase of electricity. The cost of generation and the principle

to apply in purchase therefore will determine to a considerable extent what we as consumers will ultimately pay. There can be no doubt that in future electricity w

ill be costlier. The question is how transparently this costing is done is a major contentious issue.

In the literature and practice one finds various types of costing formula such “cost plus mark up”, “average cost or yardstick cost plus mark up”, and “take or pay”

(in which case even if the electricity is not purchased, it has to be paid for). Obviously, unless there is a strong regulatory supervision the risk of cheating is high

in the first case while the “take or pay” is the most disadvantageous to the purchaser (BPDB). A yardstick pricing perhaps is the best. We do not know what kind

of supervisory/regulatory mechanism is there to ensure that BPDB is not being taken for a ride. If it is and if the purchase formula is cost plus, almost certainly B

PDB will be charged higher than is the case and will either end up paying higher subsidy for sale to consumers or charging them at rates far higher than stipulate

d recently.

Photo: R S C Anjan/Driknews

Whichever is the case, a planned pricing over time may be studied and put before the people along with pricing of electricity using devices. The people may grum

ble and some would of course dub this as anti-people, yet, this will help them in planning their own demand for electricity and curb excess consumption.

While talking about excess and unnecessary consumption, the government should either ban all kinds of illumination including that by itself or price them very hi

gh so that this is discouraged. The other way of pricing is the so called two part tariff in which one pays at far higher rates at peak hours (depending on consume

r) and lower rates at other times. Note that the mobile phone companies are doing this all the time. Of course one would need different and tamper-proof meters

for that than at present. Such measures, if put in practice may take some time to be effective and fault free, but even then every bit would help in the long run an

d should be attempted. After all one kilowatt hour saved by one is in effect one kilowatt hour extra power produced.

Now let me get to the really worrying issue which is the supply of primary fuel. First thing first here. The Government must without delay get into the extraction of

coal from Fulbari through open cut mining. That is the preferred method if geology is considered. True it will have certain environmental and social consequence

s. But the consequences of not having electricity is far more adverse than having it with own coal. Second, by all means the government may try to get the electr

icity cooperation with neighbouring countries but it should be sure to draw the contracts in a manner that is transparent and takes Bangladesh national interest in

to account. The pricing formula whether for trade or joint venture is extremely important and should be clearly stated in the contract to avoid future conflicts.

The issues of supplementary infrastructure development must be kept in mind in some cases such as those the 1350 MW joint venture plants in Khulna with Ind

ia. This applies in general for all contracts for trade in electricity, of course. In all these case, very strong supervisory role of a technically competent, perhaps an

independent and internationally reputed agency, will be needed. The cost for this will be money well spent to avoid conflicts later on. While I support all these ac

tivities of the government in principle for the short and medium term development of the power sector, I would suggest that the government is not becoming bold

enough and not taking cognizance of the other developments that are taking place technologically as well finance-wise. This relates to the independent develop

ments in technology as well as possible future obligations of Bangladesh under the climate change negotiations.

Nuclear power plant has been proposed and in the longer run of at least 10 years that is a good move. But question arises on two issues. First why has the gove

rnment not gone for MoUs with countries which have far better experience than the one it has signed one with. France, for example is a leader in this field and fo

r safety and other reasons, it is them that the Government should have turned to. Possibly the French offers were much higher priced. But in that case, the gove

rnment could move to other potential sources of funding. Second, while these are not as mature technologies, advanced experimentation is going on micro nucle

ar as well as fuel cells. What prevents the government for piloting some of these? If we do that now, when these become really mature technology we will be we

ll-placed to acquire them and more importantly we will have some of the necessary skill to run them. It is in the same vein that I would like to argue for a wholehe

arted thrust on the renewable sources such as solar, wind and if possible wave energy for electricity. The objections usually are often on the ground of financial

cost which lowers the rate of return.

Photo: Shaikh Mohir Uddin/Driknews

The government is trying to experiment with a 5 MW solar grid-connected electricity plant in Kaptai and initial estimates do not indicate its economic viability eve

n when the value of avoided carbon emission is included. On the other hand, there is a recent and somewhat rigorous study which indicates that the situation ma

y actually be quite favourable. The study shows that while Bangladesh theoretically receives approximately 70 PWh (peta watt hours) of solar energy every year

, i.e., several thousand times the current electricity generation in the country, due to various limitations, the country's technical potential of grid-connected solar P

V in Bangladesh is much lower at somewhat more than 50,000 MW which is three times or more of the intended capacity by 2016 as discussed earlier. In any ca

se, depending on various parameters such as discounting rates, and life time, the cost per unit electricity production varies from 13 to 18 BDT which is likely to b

e cost-competitive with grid-connected fuel-oil based power generation which is around 15 - 18 BDT. If clean development mechanisms, carbon tax, and oil price

increase are considered, the unit cost would be lower than the grid-connected fuel-oil based power generation. These are highly favourable and hopefuls signs

for Bangladesh to attempt to move to a greener electricity production. While there is a dearth of information on wind-based electricity potentials, present technolo

gical situation which allow 1 MW towers to be built, should similarly allow Bangladesh to leapfrog into this greener future. Here there are good examples before u

s.

Several countries, most notably China, have taken a very clear policy goal for generation of power from renewable sources and they are leaders in the world in t

his. China has a Renewable Energy Law which helped institutionalisation of the efforts at what has been dubbed as the Green Leap Forward. By 2009, Chinese

RE capacity reached 55 gigawatts (GW) of small hydropower (the largest in the world), 22.68 GW of wind power (and rising), 4 GW for biomass, and 300 mega

watts-peak (MWp) for PV. Over the next 5-year Plan China would like to raise the amount and share of electricity from renewable very substantially. In 2008, Ch

ina had a wind power capacity of 12 GW and planned to raise it to 30 GW by 2010 and further to 100 GW by 2020. These are ambitious plans and would entail o

vercoming several barriers. But recently, the Chinese government has gone to the extent of stating that they would sacrifice growth for now to an extent for far g

reater benefits in the longer term to the country and the world in general. We must learn from and collaborate with the Chinese in developing the renewable sect

or fast.

The present attempts at developing the renewable sources in the country are therefore really puny in comparison to what may be possible. Question is does this

mean that Bangladesh should shun the present power development plans of depending on oil-based expansion and secondly why should Bangladesh go for ap

parently financially costlier technology when it is so difficult to get finance for the present proven technology and thirdly where would the money come from.

The answers to all these actually lie in Bangladesh's possible future obligations for mitigation of climate change which is lowering of green house gas emission. W

e do not have any obligation at the moment for mitigation. But if we receive the finance and technology including help in capacity building, we should do that. Wh

ile not yet ready although work is going on the procedures for release of the fund pledged at Copenhagen of 30 billion dollars, this would probably happen this ye

ar or the next. If Bangladesh can show that it is trying to lower its emission which should not be difficult given that oil-based generation is far more emission-inten

sive than gas-based or certainly the renewable based ones, we should be able to get a good slice of the fund set aside for mitigation. More importantly, by 2020

, US$ 100 bn is pledged for every year. If we begin to do the ground work from now on we should be able to make Bangladesh a renewable-based country.

All of us aspire to become a lower middle-income country by 2020 or thereabout that means some of the privileges we now enjoy in various international fora an

d arrangements may no longer be applicable and we will have to compete with other similarly developing countries for any share of resources or opportunities. T

hat also will mean that the Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMA) which is mandatory for the developing countries barring LDCs under the Bali Action

Plan of UNFCCC will also have to be abided by Bangladesh.

In fact, Bangladesh should immediately initiate a move towards a low and at an opportune time a zero carbon economy. Measures for raising the supply of gas t

hrough a better reservoir management and more intensive exploration should be a part of that as natural gas is the least polluting among fossil fuel while its incr

eased supply will ease the present national problem of primary fuel for power production. That all these should be part of mitigation and low carbon developmen

t has been approved as such as part of the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan. Bangladesh should be able to access the money earmarked

for mitigation under the Green Climate Fund to which the US$ 100 bn every year will accumulate by 2020. What I am proposing is that we should study the Chin

ese and other country experiences including America and India, have our own policy and laws for aggressive development of the renewable electricity sector an

d implement them. And for that we must begin to work from now on. Let the Government implement the present plan for power production as it has drawn as an

interim measure, but a vigorous planning process for a sustainable energy development and greener Bangladesh at and beyond 2021 must start now.

The writer is Research Director, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies.

Photo: Liton Rahman/Driknews

Solar Bangla to Shonar Bangla

Salahud Din Ahmed

A strong craving to lift Bangladesh to the status of a middle-income country within not-so-distant a time is encouraging indeed. Hearteningly, one can find a clea

r-cut consensus and shared dream among all -- politicians, bureaucrats, businesspeople and even student community. They all do want to see a beaming Bang

ladesh with all her children having smile on their face.

To make a sustainable headway, no particular region of the country can be left lagging. The northern region of Bangladesh, that has some geo-ethnic peculiarit

y, therefore, does deserve attention of all concerned for stepping forward.

NBDF seminar

A group of people recently met to discuss ways of prompt development of North Bengal. They had created North Bengal Development Forum, NBDF. Their dis

cussion did congeal into consensus and expectedly would have been conveyed to the policymakers with endorsement of their colleagues attending the program

me. Honourable ministers and Advisor, Mayor, MPs, Chamber leaders, educationists, NGO leaders, regulators, and other players were present.

Solar Bangla to Shonar Bangla

In a long list of deprivations the North suffers from, industrialisation topped which is a result of mainly the dearth of energy. People there are dispossessed in m

any other ways. The National Anthem everyday reminds us of Shonar Bangla (the Golden Bengal) -- where each of her sons from all corners of the country will have smile, we are to bring lig

hts also to poorer people. One quick course is to resort to reenewable energy in general, and the solar energy in particular. Solar Bangla shall soon lead us to S

honar Bangla, where people will be seen to smile in the soft light of solar lamps.

Gas and grid-electricity is a must for large industries in the region. Gas pipe laying and other expansion work by government are also in progress. But can the p

oor common people wait for that, embracing the evening darkness, students closing their books as the sun sets? Chilean poet Gabriella Mistral said: “We are g

uilty of many errors and many faults but our worst crime is abandoning the children, neglecting the fountain of life. Many of the things we need can wait. The ch

ild cannot. Right now is the time when his bones are being formed, his blood is being made, and his senses are being developed. To him we cannot say 'Tomo

rrow.' His name is 'Today.''”

We can easily take lights and some power to these children, their dejected parents through renewables in a much easier and quicker way. The government will

have some comfort as the commitment of Power to All will be fairly met with some power supplied to poorer people. Government then can come out of discom

posure of the inability for lighting people at large right now; and can steadily go ahead with its powering plan. It gets them opportunity to improve its present pla

n, crafting it over the perspective plan. Industry chambers may also meanwhile better plan their sites etc. and help the government reach a plan that would ens

ure sustainable growth. It is known now that to turn our country into a middle-income one, we have to pass through a decade of GDP growth rate of more than

seven percent.

Young Solar-entrepreneurs

During my recent visit to Boston, USA I met among others four Professors, some of them Solar Physicists, retired from 'active' service quite a long time back. B

ut they seemingly had started their 'real' service. One of them, Prof Richard Komp, now frequents to India, Indonesia, Mali and Pakistan to train young entrepre

neurs to make small solar panels. They use small pieces of panel which are made from industrial waste, sold at a throw-away price. Involved with the programm

e, youths in these countries earn a livelihood and also can help the low-income people have some power. Interestingly, trip of these experts are sponsored by n

on-profit US organisations. If we can organise small groups in various parts of the North, they also can do marvels. Only thing needed is the youthful MPs and o

ther youth leaders of the North taking some interest with passion. For them, probably, Gabriel Garcia Marquez said:

“It is not true that people stop pursuing dreams because they grow old, they grow old because they stop pursuing dreams.”

The enthusiastic local leaders can also play pivotal role in some other fields. We keep talking to people through Outreach Programme of Bangladesh Energy R

egulatory Commission. We talk about curbing wastage and pilferage of power, redress for wrongdoings and the like. We encourage people to go for renewable

s too, where appropriate. Some officers from local administration assured us that they would try to set up Solar Water Heater on the rooftop of these Circuit Ho

uses and save the total electric bill spent for heating large quantity of water particularly in the winter. Entrepreneurs may soon start making such heaters in our

country. GTZ is known to play a vital role in this field. It can be also used to separately heat the water needed for cooking, in student halls or hostels, cantonments, barracks, labourer sheds etc. This will save gas, kerosene or precious firewood. So, MPs who are heading the governing bodies

of educational Institutions of their locality, top army, police, BGB and Ansar officials or administrators can immediately start in phases if necessary and thus no

t only save fuel, but save the environment as well.

North is more sunny and solar appliances will run more efficiently there.

Pioneering work

People in various places in our country are setting up biogas plants and are lowering load on conventional power suppliers. Most of them use dairydung or pou

ltrydrops, human excreta (also called night soil, so called probably not to 'sound' dirty!) which are not common yet, though these are available in huge quantity w

ithout any difficulty particularly in a densely populated country like ours. For no justification people tend to avoid it. A very enthusiastic professor-turned-busines

sman who set up a night soil biogas plant in Noakhali told me, his wife living in Dhaka disgustedly covered her nose with handkerchief as she heard of the plan

t! A businessman runs with this gas an eight-kilowatt biogas generator and has to pay nothing for the fuel. There are two such night soil plants in two Madrassa

s in Narshingdi. Another Madrassa in Comilla even does their cooking with such gas. I, driven by personal passion, am in touch with police and army authorities

and expect them shortly to start constructing such plants beside their barracks. These can also be done in various police barracks, hostels in police academy a

nd other training centres in the North. When running, these can easily be demonstrated to local people for encouraging them.

Pride and pleasure for politicians!

What power means to a poor farmer can be fathomed by the witness given by him in a rural church of the USA in the early 1940s: “Brothers and sisters, I want

to tell you this. The greatest thing on earth is to have the love of God in your heart, and the next greatest thing is to have electricity in your house.”

And also important is to perceive the feeling of an American public representative Senator George W Norris of Nebraska, Co-sponsor of the Rural Electrification

Act. :

“I had seen first-hand the grim drudgery and grind which had been the common lot of eight generations of American farm women. I had seen the tallow candle

in my own home, followed by the coal-oil lamp. I knew what it was to take care of the farm chores by the flickering, undependable light of the lantern in the mud

and cold rains of the fall, and the snow and icy winds of winter.

I had seen the cities gradually acquire a night as light as day.

I could close my eyes and recall the innumerable scenes of the harvest and the unending punishing tasks performed by hundreds of thousands of women, grow

ing old prematurely; dying before their time; conscious of the great gap between their lives and the lives of those whom the accident of birth or choice placed in

the towns and cities.

Why shouldn't I have been interested in the emancipation of hundreds of thousands of farm women?”

I have conviction that our public representatives are no less aware of women, and also men, in their constituencies dying before their time. These people too ar

e conscious of the great gap between their village and our town. I am sure many a politician is no less moved when they see their voters rush to cities in search

of job and food, but only burn them at Nimtoli or bury them at Begunbari.

I had to be overwhelmed by the concern and dream in people in the Seminar, especially the Politicians. Some of them were young, shiny and promising. That e

ncouraged me in quoting Senator Norris from the book titled The Next Greatest Thing that I was given when I visited The National Rural Electric Cooperative A

ssociation, NRECA in Washington, DC. In fact many of their stories, pictures of olden days can be guiding examples for us. Our leaders working particularly for the rural people, I am sure, will be interested in life and work

s of Senator Norris. They can open these internet-sites:

http://bioguide.congress.gov/scripts/biodisplay.pl?index=n000139 and http://tva.gov/

Looking at the way he once became Father of the Tennessee Valley Authority, our leaders also can envisage and execute many a mega projects to be gifted w

ith the pride and pleasure the true politicians deserve.

Caution for Rajshahi city planners

One visiting Rajshahi city will hardly find any sign of urbanisation in the real sense, only a handful of high-rise buildings are there. It still provides us with chance

to plan a City unlike dreadful Dhaka which only burns and buries her poor and unfortunate dwellers. The task have to be careful right from the beginning. Rajshahi City Corporation will face lesser problem in widening roads and relocating the industries away from the city. De

lay or laxity will only invite havocs. The concerned agency, from the beginning, will have to be manned by efficient and honest persons. The next generation wil

l never forgive our failures in this case.

They also can see the brilliant example of Khulna City Corporation setting up a huge solar plant recently.

Footballer Drogba saved Ivory Coast, who is our Drogba?

Didier Drogba, the famous Ivorian footballer has won acclaim world over by saving his motherland, Ivory Coast, from tearing apart. He was instrumental in bring

ing peace back after decades of civil war. Celebrated cricketers and other sportspersons of the North can sit immediately with the young leaders and make low

-budget but realistic plans. It will be no wonder if we see our Drogbas doing something revolutionary in a very short time. This will help in stabilizing the society

as well.

Growing rice with 70% less irrigation

Very recently Researchers of Bangladesh Agricultural University have invented a rice cultivation method for growing Boro rice in dry field, i.e., the rice needs al

most no irrigation. It has been very successfully tested in the districts of Rajshahi and Dinajpur. It saves a huge money and labour as in this method there is no

necessity of making seed bed and moreover the plants require 70% less irrigation. Reports have it, a total of more than Tk 28,000 million will be saved annuall

y if the whole country starts cultivating in this method. We may see it to spread very quickly all over only if our smart leaders coordinate with growers and releva

nt departments. By growing more rice we may get more rice bran, which amounts to 20% of rice produced, and with that bran we can not only produce electrici

ty but also make best use of the ash to make pure silica. At the top remains the money to be derived from Clean Development Mechanism for not burning fossi

l fuel to produce power.

Setting up more community E-centres in the North

Bangladesh Computer Council, BCC is implementing a project of setting up Community E-Centres, CEC in various Upazila Parishad buildings. In its second ph

ase, they will open one Centre in two Upazilas of Rajshahi and five Upazilas of Rangpur. Local leaders may try to arrange setting up of more such centres in ot

her places. If the leaders try, they can arrange to run all their CEC by solar power.

Bagerhat police - set a shining example

A few years back some youngsters at Bagerhat were nabbed for teasing girls, but the punishment they got was interesting. They were forced to attend a compu

ter course. After that they turned role model for other boys in the locality. The then SP Awlad Fakir did it with the help of Amader Gram.

Amulya Barua, another Police Official set up a computer centre at a Buddhist place of worship at Banshkhali, Chittagong where monks then learnt computer. T

he thriving centre now gives glowing reports of social advancement in the area. With many other Amulya-Awlads in other departments, they can set even brigh

ter examples. My hope is, not only the night soil biogas plant in police barracks, we will soon see other nation- building activities also to be initiated by the refor

med and smarter police force. These will be inspiring examples for others. These projects become more useful and sustainable with wider participation of vario

us groups.

Honouring heroes

About 35,000 hectares of cultivated rice used to be affected in North as there was no flood-tolerant variety available. Brridhaan 51 and 52 and other three short

duration varieties have also been evolved that have curbed decades-long Monga there. Pariza, a local rice variety, has also been improved by a local breeding

specialist Dr Mrinmoy Neogi of RDRS at Rangpur. Stunningly, now it grows in 75 to 90 days while any other variety needs 100+ days. And it can be grown in t

he middle of Boro and Amon, a time period when the land used to remain only uncultivated. It now means an extra crop; and is very important particularly when

we are losing about one percent of land every year for building home on it. Our smart and young MPS can look at sites like those follow and do something pos

itive and innovative soon after going through chapter/sections titled, say, 'the way forward'; only endeavours like these will make them different from their collea

gues. And, these are really the things that will decide what will be written on their gravestones, that I mention later.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=enandsource=hpandq=Parija+Rice+Bangladesh, www.fao.org/docs/eims/upload/agrotech/1904/Bang_Impacts.pdf

Leaders can coordinate so that Scientists are encouraged to develop many more varieties of these kinds. Ones already evolved, should be arranged to spread

properly through concerted effort by farmers, NGO and Agricultural Extension Department of the government.

There are many other big and small innovations happening in the North, bringing many pieces of good news. Our local leaders can make a lot of good out of th

ese. Like a youngman started making bio-fertilizer very successfully. He can well be encouraged and this venture can be easily spread to other parts of the Nor

th. Another college-goer invented how to switch off an irrigation pump from a distant place, and the device cost only a few thousand Taka. Though sounds simp

le, it can help the farmers save time, labour and money; help the nation save a huge amount of precious power. Our MPs can start it right away with whatever f

und they are readily provided with. Jointly, they may request conscious people, academia of the area or from away to advance ideas that the leaders should go

for implementation in phases. This requires nothing more than some love for the land they were born in. Luckily, most of them do have it!

A host of people like scientists, management specialists from home and abroad are at times in touch with us talking about prospects of business. Some of them

took early retirement but still having a lot of zeal, others wondering about coming back from abroad. Our enterprising leaders can welcome them to their consti

tuencies and help establish good ventures. This has immediate prospect of employment of local jobless people, then of economic progress of the locality. Cann

ot these be even undertaken as early electioneering with a win-win-win potential? I utter win thrice to mean that for the leader, entrepreneur and populace.

Jump in with joy for Journey with Jatropha!

I well know an NRB with idea for planting Jatropha, a plant growing in dry, marginal non-agricultural lands (perfectly for the North!) with its seed having 40% oil.

This oil can be used as Biodiesel directly after extraction (without refining) in diesel generators and engines.

This time I will talk about not only smart businessmen-turned leaders for promoting it, I dream of PDB Chairman inviting top leaders soon to inaugurate a fairly l

arge diesel power plant in the North! Imagine thousands of poor rural families finding some source of earning and ridding themselves of starvation. Not too far,

to see and learn about it, one can rush to India where by Biofuel they mainly mean Jatropha oil. It is very important to note that cultivating corn, sugar cane or p

alm for Biofuel will displace a lot of food crops from viable agricultural land, Jatropha will not.

Seaful thanks for Mutual Trust Bank

Mutual Trust Bank deserves appreciation for opening the first-ever Branch in Bangladesh run on solar power in Ishwardi. Through their new product MTB Gree

n Energy they lend for Renewables. They have financed a big Solar Irrigation Project. Credit should also go to Governor, Bangladesh Bank and his passionate

team for encouraging banks. In fact, they can only revolutionize power scenario of the country in no time. Mutual Trust Bank may soon open such other branch

es, particularly in the North. Other Banks will also then follow suit, prudently guided by the Central Bank.

Great good by GTZ

It is painful seeing our rural womenfolk cooking or doing other chores amidst dark sickening smoke with already ailing children in their lap. Are not they also con

scious of the great gap between their villages and our towns while their urban counterparts do all these with much comfort? GTZ-Bangladesh is spreading impr

oved, efficient health- and environment-friendly stoves called Bondhu Chula (Friend Stove, emitting less smoke, needing less firewood) developed by Science L

ab (BCSIR). Their project involves enthusiastic and energetic people of any age or profession who can make a good amount of money while setting up stoves i

n their areas. Whoever comes to you for help, can try this tip and directly save hundreds of rural women from pain and death.

Krishibid Institution in Shopnojatra

Krishibid Institution, Bangladesh -- KIB has its branch in North as well. Under their stewardship now they may start a dream-journey or Shopnojatra. Like our Na

tional Hero Dr Maqsudul Alam finally succeeded in sequencing the entire Jute Genome in Shopnojatra of his team, KIB can form a task force kind of group whic

h will include representatives from local leaders, admin and other relevant officials, chamber leaders, teachers, bankers and the like. The group will sit to set so

me targets that will have detailed plan about how many solar heaters, solar irrigation pumps, solar photovoltaic installations, wind power installations (turbines,

mills or pumps -- as appropriate), biogas plants (cattle, poultry or night soil-based), will be set up with location specified by them only on consideration of benefi

t to maximum number of people. The group will also search for small or big innovations in their location, or even some from outside, and fund for improvement

and commercialization of such techniques. If the institution leaders take it seriously, in only a few months they will be able to achieve a major breakthrough.

Separately, the institution can commercially or in some other ways start growing Jatropha in a huge strip on the roadside and other fallow places. Oil from the p

lants can straight away be sent to irrigation pumps of the respective localities through block supervisors of Agricultural Extension Department. Money saved in

the process shall be spent as the group will decide.

Text of the tombstone

“What you leave behind is not what is engraved in stone monuments, but what is woven into the lives of others” said an ancient Greek politician, general and st

atesman about 2,500 years back. It is still true for all (of course those who can afford a grave and a gravestone) a legislator from North or leader from South; a

professor from East or bureaucrat from West!

The writer is a former member, Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission. The article is based on a lecture delivered at NBDF Seminar in Dhaka o

n May 19, 2010. Opinions in the article are only personal.

Photo: Fahad Kaizer/Driknews

Energy roadmap - an illusion?

M. Tamim

Fossil fuel is not going to last forever but there is no viable alternate in foresight at this point of time. Fossil fuel is going to dominate the energy mix for at least

the next fifty years. Obviously the green house gas effect on our environment is going to put a lot of restrictions on energy use and sustainable energy use will

make it more conservative and efficient. On the other hand, more than two billion people in the world without access to any commercial energy are not going to

keep quiet and will make their claim. Quest for energy is going to be more violent and intense. Despite the hype for alternate or renewable energy, it can only p

lay supplementary role at its present technology and price. Except a very few, most of the countries are feeling the pinch of energy shortage and the volatile oil

price is wiping out years of advancement in many developing countries in the world. Bangladesh is struggling to meet its energy demand principally due to the

shortage of gas, its only primary energy that the country has been heavily dependent on for the last thirty odd years.

The country has been hearing a lot of rhetoric from all quarters on energy independence and long term energy planning for the last two decades. Unfortunately

, it has not seen a clear long term road map addressing all aspects of energy security. Knee jerk reaction to a serious problem that requires serious study, plan

ning, preparation and implementation in a continual manner will just make it worse. Any makeshift solution is temporary by nature. Despite many master plans

by both Petrobangla for gas and PDB for power, no comprehensive and clear road map has been constructed by either agencies or the concerned ministry. Th

e separate master plans are not even coordinated. The existing plans by the two agencies will be examined later.

To construct a clear energy road map, the first task is to assess the demand not just for power or gas but the complete picture. This should include both commercial and non-commercial energy. Ninety five percent households in the country use biomass for

cooking and yet the last major inventory of biomass was conducted in early eighties when biomass comprised more than 65% of the total energy use. Since the

n, commercial energy use has increased asymptotically and the biomass contribution has been calculated either by exclusion or interpolation. The present cont

ribution of biomass to the total energy use is quoted to be anywhere between 45% and 55% by different authors. The same applies to other sectors of energy u

se. Sale of diesel at petrol pumps are attributed to transport sector whereas almost all household diesel generators buy the diesel from the same stations and s

o does many irrigation pumps. Independent sector wise demand assessment and a regular monitoring system must be in place to get a hold on the energy gro

wth engine.

Apart from gas, assessing the energy supply situation has been fairly straight forward so far. Record of imported oil is well documented and contribution of coal

is so minor that the illegal imports of cheap low quality Indian coal would not make much difference. The Barapukuria coal production is also recorded. It is ind

eed unfortunate that Petrobangla, after fifty years of operation, does not update its gas reserve estimate on a regular basis in a systematic way. As a result, eve

ry energy professional in this sector has to hear a common public question what is the true/actual gas reserve of the country? Lack of information makes the pu

blic more confused. A solid official statement from Petrobangla, the gas authority of Bangladesh, could have easily killed the 'floating on gas' speculation in ear

ly 2000.

The situation in power sector is equally confusing. PDB reports demand of electricity on the basis of its official connected load whereas the actual demand is fa

r more than that as almost everyone is using more electricity than one's paper load. The numerous illegal connections make it even more difficult to assess the

actual demand. If additions of generation claimed by different governments are added together, there would be more power today than we can use. Yet, in the

jargons of installed capacity, derated generation, forced shut down, stranded capacity due to gas shortage, the highest power production is recorded at 4600 M

W. In peak summer it is still hovering around 4000 MW. It would be a great service to the nation if every month PDB once publishes the status of all its units (in

cluding the date of the contract and commissioning of each unit) on a given day. This would give a clear picture of the generation situation and eliminate any co

nfusion.

Once the demand and supply is well understood, the next step is to assess the requirement. In Bangladesh case, the principal problem is shortage of primary e

nergy that stemmed from its mono fuel dependency on gas. Classical energy security theory demands that energy mix and the sources must be diverse to redu

ce the vulnerability. The national energy policy of 1996 clearly envisioned this problem and suggested the increase of coal use in power production. Any road m

ap should clearly state few things the energy mix, source of primary energy, financing, technical options and economics of the projects.

The projection of growth of the major commercial energy, electricity, is the driving factor of modern development and dictates the energy requirement. A five ye

ar (2010-15) project profile for adding generation has been published by PDB that hopes to add 11606 MW during that period. Even with 30% slippage in proje

ct implementation as stated by the agency that is a staggering 8100 MW in five years. National or international financing for power projects are very tricky. Despite significant improvement in foreign currency reserve due to

the contribution of RMG sector and remittance from repatriate workers, no major energy and power project can still be undertaken without international funding

. The limitation mainly stems from the restriction of maximum funding limit by local banks. A bank can lend a maximum of fifteen percent of its capitalized fund t

o a single project and it also has sector capping to avert risk. In 2008, the record Bangladeshi commercial loan of mere $60 million was syndicated by eighteen

banks and commercial lending agencies for a local power company to generate 110 MW. Most of the international commercial lenders do not solely rely on the

sovereign risk guarantee of government of Bangladesh. They require partial (political) risk guarantee (PRG) from international lending agencies. ADB and Wor

ld Bank provided PRG for the Mehgnaghat and Haripur power plants respectively. World Bank has also committed $200 million PRG for the Bibiyana 450 MW

power plant. Even with a conservative estimate of $0.8 million/MW investment requirement,

Bangladesh will require about 6.5 billion dollars for 8100 MW generation in the next five years. The published list only assures of funding commitment for about

1000 MW (all old projects). To evacuate this power, at least 4 billion dollar will be necessary for upgrading and constructing new transmission and distribution (

T&D) lines.

Despite serious gas shortage, the projects enlist 4211 MW pure gas based power plants that would require supply of at least 800 MMcfd (million cubic feet per

day) gas for the next 15 to 20 years. Petrobangla has only agreed to supply gas to 150 MW Sylhet, 150 MW Bhola and 450 MW Bibiayana and the 2x120 MW

Siddhirganj peaking plants. With the intention of shutting down some old plants it also committed to supply gas to 225 MW rental plants. About 3000 MW plann

ed generation has no guarantee for gas and without a prior gas sales agreement none of them will materialize.

The immediate need for liquid fuel based power plants is essential. The three or even five year rental plants are required to buy time for the intermediate and lo

ng term solutions to kick in. The PDB plan shows a total of 2000 MW liquid fuel based plants of which one fourth are diesel based and the rest are furnace oil b

ased. There is additional 2380 MW of dual fuel plants. If gas is not found, they would essentially be run on liquid fuel. In addition to the existing liquid fuel based

plants (about 500 MW), the new liquid fuel based power plants would be about 4380 MW. Out of these power plants about 1300 MW are peaking plants that a

re supposed to run for six hours a day (5-11PM). In the above mix the rental portion is nearly 1600 MW.

From PDB balance sheet it is seen that plant factors for base plants varies between 70% to 94% depending on the fuel type and its availability. Peaking plants

would run at 30% capacity. The HFO (furnace oil) based power production cost is about Tk 10/kWh and diesel based cost is Tk 15/kWh without the fuel subsidy

given for these plants. Gas based power production cost varies between Tk. 1.7 to Tk 2.4/ kWh. A hypothetical scenario of 4000 MW liquid based power plants

running at average 60% plant factor for 340 days a year will produce (4000 x 24 x 340 x 0.6 x 1000 ˜ ) 2.0 x 10^10 kWh. Assuming a conservative Tk.10/kWh r

ate, the production cost of this electricity will be 20000 crore taka (2x10^11). Even if the average purchasing cost is raised from the present Tk. 2.62/kWh for th

e distribution companies to Tk 4/kWh (a 52% increase), the electricity subsidy for liquid fuel generation will peak at Tk 12000 crore per year (1.7 billion dollar). T

his is only indicative for the financial planners.

If the fuel subsidy is added, the financial assistance will go even higher. The above production costs are based on Tk. 26/litre furnace oil and Tk. 44/litre diesel

respectively. As most of the liquid fuel based plants are HFO based, an indicative calculation will be shown using that fuel. It has been reported that BPC plans

to import 1 million ton (10 lacs) additional furnace oil to meet the need of the 1000 MW new power plants this year. At about a specific gravity of 0.95, a ton of

HFO will deliver 1050 litres of oil. A million ton will produce 1050 x 10^6 litres of furnace oil. The existing furnace oil pricing is based on old oil price. The presen

t import cost of furnace oil is about Tk 40/litre. A subsidy of Tk 14/litre will force BPC to lose approximately (1050 x 10^6 x 14) Tk 1500 crore per year. With incr

easing capacity, the HFO import will increase in the subsequent years. BPC is planning to raise the furnace oil price to Tk 35/litre. As a result the pass on fuel c

ost will increase the electricity generation cost.

Presently, about 600 MW power cannot be generated due to gas supply shortage (a deficit of 120 MMcfd). As the PDB plan is heavily dependent on finding ext

ra gas supply (at least 1000 MMcfd for the total dual and gas based power plants), it is worth looking at the Petrobangla gas production augmentation plans. W

ithout going to details, the year wise projection provided by Petrobangla in June 2010 budget (energy revamping document) may be examined. According to tha

t document, Petrobangla is supposed to increase its gas production by 158 MMcfd by December 2010. Of the presented list about 50 million cubic feet has bee

n added and from previous year's workover programs another 50 milloin has been added. Out of all these projects, only Sundalpur was an exploration well and

all are either workover or development wells. The plan shows that all activities by Petrobangla and IOCs would add 585 MMcfd capacity by 2015 (provided the present production rate can be maintained). Out of that 300 MMcfd is expected out of IOC development programs in Bibiyana and Moula

vibazar. Petrobangla also added an expectation of 60 MMcfd from it four exploration wells. These numbers are based on reasonable risk assessment but chan

ces of failure are very much there. Augmentation of 400 MMcfd under the present work plan would be a safer bet.

The plan adds an ambitious 500 MMcfd LNG import by next two years (2012). For fuel source diversification and long term security it is the right direction but th

e financial, technical and economic stake must be looked into. At the present market price of LNG to Bangladesh port would cost about Tk 500/Mcf (1000 cubic

feet) which is equivalent to $10/Mcf. Adding the regassification and T&D cost, this would be no less than $11.6/Mcf (Tk. 615/Mcf). At present, the weighted ave

rage selling price of Petrobangla gas is about Tk 115/Mcf. The loss from LNG import will be (500 x 10^3 x (615-115)) 25 crore taka per day, roughly 1.3 billion d

ollar a year. The suggested LNG import technology is Floating Storage and Regassification Unit (FSRU) with a capacity of 5 million ton per year that would req

uire a 90 km under sea pipeline. This is the quickest and cheapest solution that is getting more popular worldwide. The entire project will cost at least one billion

dollar. The hope of bringing gas from Qatar by 2012 is over ambitious and unlikely to happen in such a short time.

It is clear from the present planning that adequate gas is not being secured in time to meet the need of the country. Even if it is assumed that 1000 MMcfd gas

would be added to the system by 2015, it would be entirely used up just to meet up the deficiency that is expected to grow to 1000 MMcfd by 2015 from the cur

rent 350 MMcfd. Even with a 50% increase in power tariff, electricity and related fuel subsidy will run into 2 billion dollar/year at peak production. Fuel subsidy fo

r other sectors will also increase substantially with increasing oil price (presently at about $ 93/bbl) without price adjustment. The investment requirement for just the power and energy sector (without the exploration cost) in the next five years will be more than

10 billion dollars. Some of the technological options to materialize these projects will require large number of skilled and trained manpower which the country is

strongly lacking behind.

If the new power sector plan is taken in its entirety, Bangladesh will produce 48% of its power from gas, 30% from oil, about 17% from coal and 5% from other s

ources with a targeted total production of 15,600 MW by 2015 (existing 4000 MW + 11600 MW). This is definitely not a good energy mix. Large contribution fro

m oil based power will make the average electricity cost very high. Given the present primary energy supply scenario and a much better economic multiplier of

gas use in industry, a more reasonable mix would be coal 50%, gas 30%, oil 15% and others 5%. The energy roadmap should work towards this target.

Electricity production cost from Barapukuria coal is Tk. 3.80/kWh. Even with imported coal, this will be less than Tk 5/kWh. Coal mine development will require

anywhere from 1.5 to 3 billion dollar over a period of 3 to 5 years depending on size and technology. A 1000 MW coal fired power plant costs 1-1.2 billion dollar

. Production cost from new nuclear plants are about Tk 5/kWh. For a 1000 MW nuclear plant even the oldest approved technology will cost 3.0 billion dollars ov

er a 5 to 7 year construction period. Electricity import from India will not be less than Tk. 4/kWh (Rs. 2.5) at the beginning for the first 250 MW. Later on if more

power is bought from Indian open market or private producers, that will definitely be not less than Tk. 5/kWh.

At one time when the country had some short term excess gas, generating plants were the problem but the principal problem faced by the country today is not

the lack of power plants. Due to old perception and other motives, governments seem to be focused on building more power plants whereas 600 MW generatio

n capacity is stranded due to lack of gas supply! The foremost and ominous problem faced by the nation today is lack of primary energy. The government plan for gas ex

ploration is heavily dependent on BAPEX effort. Their seven year vision plan that was approved by the last government is keeping them completely occupied. E

ven if extra money is poured into their existing program, they will not be able to accelerate their activities due to lack of equipment and manpower. BAPEX depe

ndency and expectation may be politically safe but will not solve the gas deficit problem. Simultaneous large scale new exploration by international companies

along with BAPEX is immediately required to tackle the gas supply situation. It beats all logic when buying gas at $1.5-$2/Mcf from IOCs (including free gas) is

argued as anti-state whereas LNG or pipeline gas import at $10/Mcf is justifiable? Onshore, shallow offshore, deep offshore all exploration opportunities should

be opened as soon as possible for international participation with adequate incentives for wider participation. This will not hamper BAPEX activities.

Another comfortable position is not to develop country's own coal mines. It is again politically safer to import coal and avoid all controversies. Bangladesh have

about 7 tcf proven gas reserve; by doing 3D seismic and some development drilling another 7 tcf may be added to the proven category from the existing gas fi

elds. Two independent studies have shown that finding another 10 tcf from onshore and shallow offshore is highly probable. Most conservatively one may expe

ct addition of 15 tcf to the reserve through extensive exploration. This will involve few billion dollar investment. By taking this direction, the country will find enou

gh gas for industrial growth to a point when the economy will be able to sustain high energy cost. Under this picture of our principal primary energy - gas, the only other sustainable and afforda

ble option is to develop coal. The opposition to coal import has been very feeble and all the resource nationalists and activists have said little on its impact whe

reas they have shown strong reservation about developing indigenous coal. There are many technical difficulties in large scale coal import. For resource divers

ification the effort should be supported but not at the expense of keeping the national mines idle. Much has been told about the technology and environmental i

mpact of coal mining. No resource extraction is pain free but effort must be taken to make it tolerable. The opposition to coal development has not been able to

offer a viable alternate solution to our primary energy requirement. As a part of ensuring primary energy, coal must be developed immediately. Proper investm

ent in coal power generation can easily eliminate the need of any coal export but Bangladesh simply doesn't have the money, technology and the manpower to

develop any sort of coal mine. International collaboration is needed and modality can be found where the entire integrated operation can be economically (com

mercially) viable.

Economics and finance are always neglected in all our planning at least in public documentation. No new electricity generation solution is viable in the present

market at less than Tk. 5/kWh without subsidy. Similarly one cannot expect any investment in gas sector if the bulk of Petrobangla gas (65%) is supplied at $1/

Mcf whereas the regional gas price is not less than $5/Mcf. The global nature and price of all kind of energies has to be clearly understood and adjusted. From

the beginning, Bangladesh's power and energy sector was dependent on international aid agencies. Until very recent times, Bangladesh could not drill any wel

l on its own finance or set up a processing or power plant. All major transmission pipelines that exist in the country are either World Bank or ADB funded. The m

ost recent gas sector vulnerability has been exposed in the inability of GTCL to set up three critical compressors due to sudden increase in price that could not

be covered by the original ADB loan. Drilling of six development wells that are extremely important to enhance the production capacity of Petrobangla is being d

elayed due to mainly fund shortage. Many naïve and few experts want to use the foreign currency reserve for everything as if it is free money sitting idly in Ban

gladesh Bank without realizing that it is public money just kept in dollar. Before planning anything, financing must be secured.

It is not possible to discuss all aspects of a comprehensive energy plan in a newspaper article. One has to include transport, agriculture, industry, fertilizer, domestic and commercial use of energy. Each of these sectors requires demand-supply analyses, financial requirement and economic viability study. Socio e

conomic and environmental assessment has become standard for all energy projects. Along with these standard exercises a clear man power development pla

n need to be undertaken in parallel.

In 1972 only 3% people had access to electricity, today it has reached nearly 50% even after doubling of the population. The country has come a long way. How

ever, incorporation of energy issues remained ad-hoc, shaped by reaction to global and domestic political events, rather than a pro-active strategic vision. The

time has come to have one now.

The writer is Professor, Petroleum Engineering Department, BUET & Former Advisor, Caretaker Government.

Bangladesh: Russia edges out China in Hasina’s quest for N-power plantMarch 7, 2011admin

B'desh Premier in conversation with Russian leader at his St Petersburg residence during her Russia visit in Nov 2010By Malladi Rama Rao(This article was a publication of the Policy Research Group, Poreg)South Asia is going to see generation of nuclear power in yet another country soon. Bangladesh has just signed an agreement with Russia for its first nuclear plant that would be designed to generate 2000 MW. India and Pakistan are the other two countries that have been generating nuclear power and both have turned nuclear powers. Sri Lanka is also tossing the idea of N- based electricity generation and is in talks with China to quench its power thirst.Bangladesh too turned to China for help in its nuclear power programme when BNP supremo Khaleda Zia was the prime minister. Some negotiations took place but before any significant forward movement could take place, her betenoire Sheikh Hasina returned as prime minister of the country on 6 January 2009. And she was guided as much by nostalgia as realpolitik in clinching the deal with Russia which will see an investment of around $4 billion. More than 40 percent power plants in Bangladesh had been constructed by Russian assistance. Forty Russian soldiers died while de-mining the Chittagong Port after the Liberation war (1971). Hasina’s husband, M A Wazed Miah, was a reputed nuclear scientist. He passed away in 2009.It is too early to say whether the plan will sail without encountering any hurdles from Awami League rivals and environment Ayatollahs. Big Brother neighbour India is having trouble with environmentalists in setting up its mega nuclear power plant in collaboration with France at Jaitapur in its world famous Alphonso mango producing Western Maharashtra. When completed the plant would generate 9900 MW, which will be more than double the current nuclear capacity of 4, 780 MW. Like India, Bangladesh is an electricity deficit State. Short-fall touches 2,000 MW during summers. Only about 47 percent of households have access to electricity. Decades-old gas-fired power plants are unable to generate enough electricity for the country’s 150 million people. With power shortages affecting production, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank have cautioned that Bangladesh’s economy will suffer if more electricity is not generated to support industries and agriculture. It will be difficult to sustain the present growth rate of more than 5 per cent, said the high priests of development finance. .HISTORY OF HOPE & DESPAIRNoted Bangla nuclear physicist M. Aminul Islam says ‘The history of nuclear power reactor in Bangladesh is a forty-five year long history of hope and despair — a history of missed opportunities’. In the early sixties, a site for a reactor was selected at Rooppur in Pabna, on the banks of river Padma near the Hardinge Bridge. ‘As silent evidence, there stand some unused buildings on 294 acres acqu

ired land — for the reactor complex, for the office and the residential colony’, he remarks.The people of these lands were evacuated, compensation was paid and they were rehabilitated in nearby villages. What was more several techno-economic viability studies on nuclear power reactors, and many feasibility studies and surveys were carried out. Specific plans for the reactor were approved many times and even negotiations were held for financial closure with different countries. All the efforts came to a naught as nuclear power plant became a political and diplomatic football. ‘Although the prospect of building the reactor was bright, the implementation of the project never actually started because of either national or international reasons’, a Daily Star columnist says.The dithering at the political level did not amuse Padma and the river has moved far away from Rooppur. It has shifted 1000 feet away from the site selected for locating the reactor and there are concerns now about the availability of water (as coolant for the reactor), according to a high level official of the Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission. A survey has been launched to find a suitable point in the Padma for collecting water. The Commission is looking for a point in the river that can meet the requirement of water for the plant’s cooling system for the next 100 years.Another problem, though not specific to Padma alone, is the flow of water which is not constant through out the year and in fact keeps varying sharply at different periods in a year. During August-September, it carries 6-7 lakh cusecs but during March-April, the flow comes down to less than 30,000 cusec at the same point, says an official of Water Development Board (WDB) in Pabna. The solution, in his view, will come from building the long in works Padma Barrage.“If the barrage is built, adequate water will be available in the river throughout the year and it will serve the proposed reactor,” the WDB official says. Ground water level is also being studied with tapping ground water being seen as an option.HASINA’S POWER PLEDGESheikh Hasina’s Awami League came to power in December 2008 elections with a promise to make the country power surplus. During the first year in office, the Awami League government laid out a plan to install roughly 9,000 megawatts — a good part of it coal-fired, a part of it nuclear powered, some gas-fired, and some by both gas and petroleum products. These initiatives demand more than $12 billion of investment.Over the years, Bangladesh has come to rely mostly on natural gas based power plants (more than 90 per cent). Yet, the sector did not see any development under Khaleda rule. In fact, the plans to invite Indian conglomerate the House of Tatas to make big investments made no progress with row over gas availability and gas pricing policy. The Tatas have since rolled back their offer. Natural gas sector also is investment hungry. But no significant investment was made for gas exploration in the last decade. This ground reality prompted Hasina government to eye several large-scale coal-based power plants (3,500 MW plus), besides gas-based and dual fuel-based power projects. A Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminal at Chittagong is a part of the mega power dream. The $1 billion facility will help continuous operation of existing gas-fired power and industrial units.REGIONAL POWER GRIDEnergy security to Bangladesh will come from a regional power grid that taps into the Indian grid and North-east India’s hydro-electric power plants. It is building a 40 km power transmission line and a high voltage sub-station on the south-western border of the country that would enable it to receive Indian electricity. The expectation in Dhaka and Delhi is that some 250 – 500 MW power will flow into the B’desh grid within two years. India power major NTPC will collaborate in setting up a 1,350 MW coal-fired power-plant in Mongla. Another 1,350 MW plant will come up in Chittagong with private sector’s participation.Grandiose plans takes time to materialise. This is particularly so in Bangladesh, which is rocked by ‘instability and violence generated by Islamic fundamentalists’ to further political goals. “Since 2009, different government agencies floated tenders for power projects totaling more than 3,000 MW. If the agencies could handle these bids efficiently, by now the majority of these projects would have been awarded to different contractors and it would have assured that at least by 2011, some of these projects would have started producing power. That would have meant that by 2011, the level of load-shedding would have decreased significantly — if not completely”, the progress card in a leading Dhaka daily said. The report was aptly titled ‘Great Expectations but Timid Implementation’.By mid-2010, the Bangladesh power ministry signed two public sector power projects (300 MW each) and four rental power projects (300 MW each). There was no progress in respect of six of twenty-four power tenders, although they were floated much earlier. Officials are, however, confident of signing deals that could see generation of some 500 MWs. That may not bring much consolation to the people. Because today demand is between 6000 and 6200 MW while the generation hovers between 4000 and 4600 MWs. The Hasina government is pinning much hope on private power projects; though the proposal has met with ‘encouraging’ response, private power will not be flowing into the grid for a long, long time because of time consuming bureaucratic processes..Viewed against this scenario, Bangladesh’s plans to tap nuclear energy for power generation make sense. And make the Awami faithful to entertain hope that Hasina government will fulfill its poll promise of eliminating load shedding by the year 2014.ROOPPUR TIME-LINE1. In the sixties Bangladesh opens negotiations with China, Russia, USA, France, India and South Korea. Substantive talks take place with China under Khaleda regime.

2. B’desh and Russia sign a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on May 13, 2009 in DhakaRussia agrees to supply materials and provide services in the field of nuclear fuel cycle. Russia also agrees to train and upgrade skills of personnel in reactor and radioactive waste management.2. B’desh and Russia sign a protocol deal in October 2009 in Moscow on peaceful usage of atomic energy.3. B’desh and Russia sign framework agreement in Moscow on May 21, 2010.Under it, Bangladesh sought Russian cooperation in “design, construction and operation of nuclear power and research reactors, nuclear fuel supply, taking back the spent nuclear fuel and nuclear waste management, personnel training and capacity building for operation and maintenance of the plant, research, education and training of personnel in the Russian Federation in the field of the use of nuclear energy, development of innovative reactor technologies, and exploration and mining of uranium and thorium deposits”.4. Bangladesh signs with Russia on Feb 24, 2011 a primary deal for installing a 2,000 MW nuclear power plant at Rooppur in Pabna. DEAL DETAILS1. The first of two nuclear power plants (NPPs) will be completed in 2017-18 (That is five years from the date of signing final accord)2. It will be a third generation reactor.3. The first plant will generate 1000 MW. Cost will be $1.5 to 2 billion.4. Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission prepared the action plan for executing the NPP5. Russia will manage the spent-fuel and recycle it.Bangladesh passed the Radiation Safety Bill. It is a signatory to Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, Safeguard Agreement and other related protocols.Bangladesh signed bilateral treaties for peaceful use of atomic energy with a number of countries including India.The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is supporting Bangladesh’s nuclear power reactor plan, Yukiya Anano, its director general, told reporters in Dhaka on Dec 13, 2010.Across the globe, there are 443 nuclear power reactors in 32 countries (if under construction are factored in the number of N-power reactors will be 520 across 37 countries).Nuclear power accounts for approximately 17% of total electricity generation in the world.REFERENCES 1. Great Expectations But Timid Implementation: By Sharier Khan, The Daily Star, May 5, 2010 (http://www.thedailystar.net/forum/2010/may/great.htm)2. Dhaka, Moscow sign deal on N- power, BSS report in The Daily Star, May 21, 20103. Water Worry for N- project: front page report in The Daily Star, Aug 15, 2010(http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news-details.php?nid=150798Prospect & Future of Solar Dryer: Perspective Bangladesh

Prospects of nuclear power in BangladeshPrevious governments may not have kept the promise to build a nuclear power plant for the last 40 years but this Awami

League government is committed to make it happen during its tenure, said State Minister for Science and ICT Yeafesh O

sman yesterday.

"We mean business," he said at a discussion titled "Prospects of nuclear power in Bangladesh", adding, "The Awami Lea

gue has pledged to build the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant. We are clear about this. We have no option but to go for nuc

lear power for future energy security."

The discussion, jointly organised by Buet Alumni Association (Buetaa) and The Daily Star at The Daily Star conference r

oom, overwhelmingly advocated immediate steps to build a 1,000-megawatt (MW) nuclear power plant at a staggered co

st of $2 billion.

The discussants felt that the country's gas and coal resources are simply not enough to meet the future demands while n

uclear power provides emission-free energy.

President of Buetaa Jamilur Reza Chowdhury moderated the discussion in which Energy Adviser to the Prime Minister T

owfiq-e-Elahi Chowdhury and former adviser to a caretaker government CS Karim also participated.

While Yeafesh Osman did not shed light on the expected memorandum of understanding with Russia later this month fo

r two 1,000MW power plants, he said, "Whomever we sign our deals with, it will be win-win for both. We do not want cha

rity. We want to win and we want the other country to win as well."

Such a plant can be built over a period of five years to 14 years at most with a life cycle of 40 to 50 years. Such plants ar

e costly mainly because safety needs to be ensured.

The Rooppur Nuclear Power Project was conceived in early 60s and 260 acres of land was acquired for it close to the P

adma since nuclear plants need huge amount of water for its cooling system. Experts reviewed the site in 2001 for a 600

MW plant and had certified it as suitable.

The nation should prepare its manpower to run such plants, introduce education to create such manpower in the future a

nd set up a new body to implement and run the project, said speakers who represented Bangladesh Atomic Energy Com

mission (BAEC), Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Buet), the private sector and International Finan

ce Corporation (IFC).

A plant cannot be so large that it generates more than 10 percent of the total peak supply to the national grid. Otherwise

, such a plant may cause the whole grid to fail. It means that the national grid should have a peak supply of 10,000MW to

have a single unit 1,000MW nuclear plant. The speakers said if the country goes for nuclear power now, the national de

mand would hit around 10,000MW anyway by 2016.

Towfiq-e-Elahi picked a suggestion from another discussant to address this issue. "If our grid is connected to the regiona

l [India or Myanmar] grid, then the 10 percent issue can be addressed. We would like to extend our grid to the regional n

etwork during our government's tenure."

He pointed out that even if the country had enough gas, the energy sources should be diversified. Nuclear power should

be one of the choices.

"We are open to new ideas. We are committed to nuclear power. It is sad that our engineers went to other countries to b

uild nuclear power plants while we sat for decades. But let us start now," Towfiq-e-Elahi said.

In addition to ensuring highest level of safety, the government needs to address one of the main impediments to nuclear

power, ensuring purchase of nuclear fuel. This can be a geopolitical issue as only a few countries produce and sell uran

ium, the fuel that needs to be replenished every 18 to 24 months.

The other constraint is dumping the radioactive nuclear waste, which is still a globally debated issue. While it does not em

it harmful gases, nuclear waste is an environmental issue. Most plants preserve the nuclear waste at the plant site, while

some waste is dumped underground in deserts. A speaker suggested that Bangladesh should strike a deal with the fuel

supplier to take back the waste.

A 1,000MW nuclear plant running at 80 percent factor for one year generates waste of 78 cubic feet, the roundtable was

told.

Presenting a paper, Abdul Matin, former chief nuclear engineer of BAEC, said currently there are 436 nuclear reactors in

the world generating 372,000MW power. Forty-four reactors with 38,848MW capacity are under construction. By 2030 t

here will be 862 reactors in the world generating more than 800,000MW.

He said nuclear electricity generation cost is cheaper than coal or gas fired power in most countries. The cost of power f

rom nuclear energy in France is 3.93 cents per kilowatt while it is 4.42 cents for coal power and 4.30 cents for gas powe

r. In Japan the cost of nuclear-, coal- and gas-generated electricity are 6.86 cents, 6.91 cents and 6.38 cents respectivel

y. In the USA nuclear power costs 4.65 cents, coal 3.65 and gas 4.90 cents.

Matin explained why there was a renewed interest in nuclear power worldwide. "World's fossil fuel reserves are limited a

nd depleting fast. There is growing concern about emission of greenhouse gases from the combustion of fossil fuels and

the consequent global warming and climate change. At the same time, nuclear power provides a safe, environmentally c

lean and economically viable alternative source of power generation," he said.

He noted that if 50 percent of our 13.5 trillion cubic feet of gas is dedicated to electricity, it will provide 3200MW for 30 ye

ars. If 90 percent of 1,000 million tonnes of the country's coal is dedicated to power generation, it will produce 15,750MW

power for 30 years.

The country's power demand will shoot to 5,720MW next year, 9,211MW in 2015, 14,172MW in 2020 and 20,823MW in

2025. Presently the country can supply up to 4,162MW of power.

In the short term, Bangladesh may import electricity from neighbouring countries, improve plant efficiency, import Liquefi

ed Natural Gas and take up conservation measures. In medium term, the country may go for coal and gas exploration, in

terconnect the national grid with neighbouring countries, go for two 1,000MW nuclear power plants in Rooppur, to be in c

ommission in 2016 and 17.

In the long term, the country should use coal on a large scale for power and take up four 1,000MW nuclear plants for bas

e load in Chittagong and Khulna to be in commission between 2022 and 2026.

Last Updated ( Sunday, 10 May 2009 13:36 )Load shedding

Bangladesh is facing huge load shedding of electricity. Almost all part of Dhaka having load shedding of electricity everyday at least four to five hours eveyday. In Karwan Bazar, power disruption occurred five times with more than five hours of outage between 8:00am and 5:00pm and in 24 hours almost eight to nine hours. Multiple power cuts for periods totaling six to seven hours occurred in Eskaton Garden, Dhanmondi, Kalabagan, Moghbazar, Khilgaon, Goran, Shahjahanpur, Mohammadpur, Banani, Uttara and other places.Every summer Bangladesh face huge load shedding problem. According to the official statistics, the country’s electricity shortage gone up 1000 megawatts (MW) to 1259 MW with the demand of 4806 MW on 2006.  Authority said this year (2009) about 1400 MW to 1800 MW electricity shortage will face this year, which is almost twice more than last year and the country need about 5000 MW. So this summer we might face the problem that’s we have not face last ten years. In Bangladesh electricity power is not generate as much as our demand. So every summer we face huge load shedding and people are suffering, but in winter there is almost not load shedding. In summer temperatures goes up to around 40° Celsius. So in this situation if there is load-shedding of electricity people face uncertain condition.Power Development Board (PDB) sources said while the official power demand was just 5000MW, the unofficial demand was hovering around 6000 MW. The officially estimated power demand is 5000 MW against a generation of around 3500 MW. Around 1500 MW power could not be generated due to short supply of gas to many power plants. Gas is a major concern also because several new gas-fired power plants with nearly 1000 MW generation capacity are expected to be drafted into service this year. “We are expecting 200MW new power generation from May. If we cannot ensure the gas supplies, it will become meaningless” PDB pointed out.A PDB official said the real power situation was worse than the official picture. “The Rural Electrification Board (REB) needs 2500 MW, but is given less than half of that. Dhaka Electricity Supply Authority (DESA) and Dhaka Electric Supply Company (DESCO) need more than 2000 MW power and the PDB needs another 2000 MW,” he added.On 2007 government said by 2010 Bangladesh will be a load shedding free country. “We have set a target to generate sufficient electricity by the year 2010 to reach a level where there will be no load shedding,” said Mirza Azizul Islam, finance and planning adviser. But we don’t see any result of it day by day the rate of load shedding is increasing.Russia submits proposal to Bangladesh on setting up nuclear power plant

DHAKA, March 22 (Xinhua) -- Russian Ambassador to Bangladesh Gennady P Trotsenko on Sunday submitted a formal proposal to Bangladesh's State Minister for Science and ICT Yeafesh Osman for setting up a nuclear power plant to meet the country's growing demand for energy, private news agency UNB reported.

Talking to reporters here Sunday after meeting with the state minister, the ambassador was quoted as saying Russia is making endeavors to assist Bangladesh to construct a nuclear plant to meet the energy needs in the south Asian country.

He said a Russian team of experts would soon come here to discuss this issue with the concerned authorities.

The state minister told reporters that they would study the proposal and hold further discussions on it with the Russian expert team.

Earlier, reports said Russia has proposed backing for a 1,000-megawatt nuclear power station in Bangladesh.

Bangladesh has a shortage of electricity with generation of around 3,500 MW against the demand of 5,000 MW.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt...090322?sp=true 

Russia vies for Bangladesh nuclear power plant deal

DHAKA, March 22 (Reuters) - Russia entered a race with China and South Korea on Sunday to win a contract to build a 1,000 megawatt nuclear power plant for energy-starved Bangladesh, officials said.

Russian envoy Gennady Trotsenko presented a proposal to Yafes Osman, state minister for science and information and communication technology.

China and South Korea have made similar proposals in the last year, but Bangladesh was yet to make a decision.

"We have placed a proposal for undertaking efforts to set a nuclear power plant in Bangladesh," Trotsenko told reporters after meeting Osman.

A senior science ministry official said the authorities were also studying the offers from China and South Korea to build the nuclear plant.

Bangladesh plans to set up the 1,000 MW power plant at Rooppur, 200 km (125 miles) northwest of the capital Dhaka, by 2011 to help narrow a

growing gap between demand and supply, he said, without giving details.

Bangladesh's total daily electricity generation is around 3,800 MW against demand for over 5,000 MW, energy ministry officials said.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) last year approved energy-starved Bangladesh's plan to set up a nuclear power station.

"Anyone of these three countries may get a contract for building the plant as Bangladesh seriously needs to boost electricity generation," the official of the science ministry said.

Bangladesh's nearly 60 power plants, mostly decades old, are fuelled by gas and coal, but the country's reserves of gas and coal were quickly depleting, officials said.

With more than 13 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves, Bangladesh produces about 1,800 million cubic feet of gas (mmcf) per day versus demand of more than 2,050 mmcf.

Bangladesh may fully exhaust its gas reserves by 2011 unless new fields are found, officials say.

(Reporting by Nizam Ahmed; Editing by Anis Ahmed and Jason Neely)Dhaka readies groundwork for nuclear power deals

Nazrul Islam

Quote:

Dhaka has completed the groundwork for negotiating nuclear power deals with Russia, South Korea, China and France aimed at the constructi

on of two medium-sized 600MW nuclear power plants by 2017, officials said.

Dhaka holds talks with a Russian delegation today to know of Moscow’s ability at and technology for the installation of such power plants.

‘We will also discuss signing an agreement on peaceful use of nuclear energy between Bangladesh and Moscow,’ an official at the science and

ICT ministry told New Age.

Bangladesh so far has bilateral agreements on nuclear cooperation with the United States, France and China. Along with Russia, South Korea,

China and France have expressed interest in the installation of nuclear power plants in Bangladesh after the Awami League-led government ha

d assumed office.

The government is seriously considering options for nuclear power against the backdrop of severe power crisis and bleak future of power gener

ation with traditional energy sources.

Bangladesh has also a vision to have two more units, each with the production capacity of 1,000MW, of nuclear power plant by 2025.

The officials had initial talks with the representatives of China and South Korea. They are expecting further discussion to look into the options fo

r nuclear power.

The country has for long been nursing a nuclear power plants site at Rooppur, feasibility studies for which have certified the project technically

and economically viable.

International Atomic Energy Commission representatives, who visited the site in November 2008, also gave Bangladesh a go-ahead with the pr

oject.

But experts are worried about possible sources of financing to set up such plants as they estimated the cost to range between $900 million to $

1.2 billion for a medium-sized plant with the generation capacity of 600MW.

The estimated cost of a 1,000MW nuclear power plant ranges between $1.5 billion and $2 billion, according to a paper prepared by the science

and ICT ministry.

Asked about the timeframe for the installation of a nuclear power plant, former Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission chairman Shafiqul Islam

Bhuiyan said the installation of a unit would taken between 45 and 60 months after commissioning a deal for such a project.

Bangladesh may need two more years to complete its preparation to improve the safety standards at the site and environmental standards, said

another expert.

The IAEA, which gave a technical project to Bangladesh, also suggested completion of certain regulatory and safety tasks beside infrastructure

development.

In line with its 19-point suggestions, the government prepared a draft improving the existing nuclear law.

‘Once the draft is finalised, it will be sent to Geneva for comments before it gets approval back home,’ an official at the ministry said.

In 1980, Bangladesh’s National Economic Council approved the proposal for the installation of the Rooppur nuclear power. The project was originally taken up in 1961.

In recent negotiations, Dhaka has sought assistance from South Korea to help set up nuclear plants in Bangladesh.

‘Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina wanted to know how efficient and cost-effective South Korean technology could be for the installation of the nucl

ear power plants,’ Suk-Bum Park, the South Korean ambassador in Dhaka, told New Age. He said the negotiation may resume any time.

A French embassy official said Bangladesh had initial talks with a French company called AREVA.

Four hundred and thirty-nine nuclear power plants, now in operation worldwide, are providing about 16 per cent of the global electricity producti

on.

France produces 79 per cent of its total electricity through 59 units, Belgium 58 per cent, Sweden 44 per cent, Korea 40 per cent, Japan 35 per

cent, and the United States 20 per cent having 104 units, according to a report prepared in 2008 by the Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commissio

n

Dhaka seeks to build two 1,000MW plants

M Abul Kalam AzadThe government is likely to submit a proposal to the visiting Russian delegation today for setting up of two 1,000MW nuclear power plants in the country.

Dhaka and Moscow also hope to reach an understanding regarding this today, the last day of the three-day talks with the two-member Russian delegation led by Vladimir Averkiev, head of international cooperation of Russian State Atomic Energy Corporation.

"We will discuss some important issues with the Russian delegation today, including estimated cost of a nuclear power unit," said MM Neazuddin, joint secretary to the Ministry of Science, Information and Communication Technology.

Neazuddin is leading the Bangladesh side at the talks. Terming today's meeting very crucial, he told The Daily Star that everything would be settled within the next few days.

With little hope for quick improvement of the existing severe power crisis, the government aims to sign primary agreements in this regard this month with Russia, which has shown enthusiasm to help Bangladesh with nuclear power technology.

France, China and South Korea have also shown interest in helping Bangladesh develop nuclear power plant while Bangladesh has bilateral agreements on nuclear cooperation with the United States, France and China.

Bangladesh and Russia kicked off the talks on an agreement for constructing nuclear power plants and peaceful use of nuclear energy. The Russian team, which arrived earlier this week, presented an overview of the Russian nuclear technology on Tuesday.

Yesterday's talks focused on Bangladesh's current energy situation. "We discussed the existing infrastructure, transmission capacity, manpower and possible sites for setting up nuclear power units," said Neazuddin.

The science and ICT ministry will prepare a report on the talks and submit it to the prime minister.

A memorandum of understanding might be signed between the two sides if the negotiation succeeds, paving the way for reaching a final deal.

The Russian team also includes Nikolay Poznyakov, head of external affairs of Russian International Relations Department, who visited the Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission in Savar yesterday afternoon.

Bangladesh has long been nursing a nuclear power plant site at Rooppur, feasibility studies for which certified the project as technically and economically viable. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) representatives, who visited the site in November 2008, also gave Bangladesh the go-ahead with the project.

The IAEA, which gave Bangladesh technical support, also suggested completing certain regulatory and safety tasks besides infrastructure development at Rooppur.

In line the 19-point suggestion of the IAEA, the government prepared a draft improving the existing nuclear law. Once the draft is finalised, it will be sent to Geneva for comments before being approved, said officials.

Earlier in 1980, Bangladesh's National Economic Council approved the proposal for installation of the Rooppur nuclear power plant.

The project had been originally taken up in 1961.

In recent negotiations, Dhaka has sought assistance from South Korea in setting up nuclear plants in Bangladesh.

A total of 431 nuclear power plants operating worldwide at present provide about 16 percent of the global electricity.Print Send Share Clip Rate the storyreaders rating 5 / 5Two accords on NPP to be signed with Russia soon

Bangladesh is going to sign two agreements with Russia on strengthening cooperation between the two sides for peaceful use of nuclear energy and development of nuclear-technology-related infrastructures, official sources said, reports UNB.

One of the two proposed deals is a cooperation agreement and another is a memorandum of understanding (MoU).

According to the sources, the agreements are aimed at moving forward Bangladesh's plan to set up nuclear power plants (NPPs) to minimise the country's severe power crisis.

The officials said the cooperation accord will be signed between the two governments, while the MoU between their state-owned agencies - Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission (BAEC) and Russian nuclear energy corporation Rosatom.

Top officials of Bangladesh and the Russian Federation finalised the drafts of the proposed agreements on the concluding day of their meeting that ended at the Science and ICT Ministry in the city on April 2.

A two-member Russian technical expert team comprising Vladimir Averkiev, head of international cooperation of the Russian State Atomic Energy Corporation, and Nikolay Poznyakov, head of external affairs of the Russian International Relations Department, visited Dhaka last week and negotiated a Russian proposal for building a NPP.

Joint secretary (development) of Science and ICT Ministry MM Neazuddin led the host side at the talks, where the BAEC top officials were present.

As per understating between the two sides, both will send the copies of draft agreements to the highest policy-making level of their respective government to get the go-ahead. After the clearance, the two sides will sit together again in Dhaka, and sign the cooperation agreement as well as the MoU.

Science and ICT Ministry officials said they will now send the draft agreements to the Law Ministry for vetting, and then place it with the highest policy body for the final clearance

Nuke answer to powerGovt firm on building N-plant to end electricity crisis, minister tells roundtable

Staff Correspondent

Previous governments may not have kept the promise to build a nuclear power plant for the last 40 years but this Awami League government is

committed to make it happen during its tenure, said State Minister for Science and ICT Yeafesh Osman yesterday.

"We mean business," he said at a discussion titled "Prospects of nuclear power in Bangladesh", adding, "The Awami League has pledged to bu

ild the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant. We are clear about this. We have no option but to go for nuclear power for future energy security."

The discussion, jointly organised by Buet Alumni Association (Buetaa) and The Daily Star at The Daily Star conference room, overwhelmingly a

dvocated immediate steps to build a 1,000-megawatt (MW) nuclear power plant at a staggered cost of $2 billion.

The discussants felt that the country's gas and coal resources are simply not enough to meet the future demands while nuclear power provides

emission-free energy.

President of Buetaa Jamilur Reza Chowdhury moderated the discussion in which Energy Adviser to the Prime Minister Towfiq-e-Elahi Chowdhu

ry and former adviser to a caretaker government CS Karim also participated.

While Yeafesh Osman did not shed light on the expected memorandum of understanding with Russia later this month for two 1,000MW power p

lants, he said, "Whomever we sign our deals with, it will be win-win for both. We do not want charity. We want to win and we want the other cou

ntry to win as well."

Such a plant can be built over a period of five years to 14 years at most with a life cycle of 40 to 50 years. Such plants are costly mainly becaus

e safety needs to be ensured.

The Rooppur Nuclear Power Project was conceived in early 60s and 260 acres of land was acquired for it close to the Padma since nuclear pla

nts need huge amount of water for its cooling system. Experts reviewed the site in 2001 for a 600MW plant and had certified it as suitable.

The nation should prepare its manpower to run such plants, introduce education to create such manpower in the future and set up a new body

to implement and run the project, said speakers who represented Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission (BAEC), Bangladesh University of E

ngineering and Technology (Buet), the private sector and International Finance Corporation (IFC).

A plant cannot be so large that it generates more than 10 percent of the total peak supply to the national grid. Otherwise, such a plant may caus

e the whole grid to fail. It means that the national grid should have a peak supply of 10,000MW to have a single unit 1,000MW nuclear plant. Th

e speakers said if the country goes for nuclear power now, the national demand would hit around 10,000MW anyway by 2016.

Towfiq-e-Elahi picked a suggestion from another discussant to address this issue. "If our grid is connected to the regional [India or Myanmar] grid, then the 10 percent issue can be addressed. We would like to extend ou

r grid to the regional network during our government's tenure."

He pointed out that even if the country had enough gas, the energy sources should be diversified. Nuclear power should be one of the choices.

"We are open to new ideas. We are committed to nuclear power. It is sad that our engineers went to other countries to build nuclear power plan

ts while we sat for decades. But let us start now," Towfiq-e-Elahi said.

In addition to ensuring highest level of safety, the government needs to address one of the main impediments to nuclear power, ensuring purch

ase of nuclear fuel. This can be a geopolitical issue as only a few countries produce and sell uranium, the fuel that needs to be replenished eve

ry 18 to 24 months.

The other constraint is dumping the radioactive nuclear waste, which is still a globally debated issue. While it does not emit harmful gases, nucl

ear waste is an environmental issue. Most plants preserve the nuclear waste at the plant site, while some waste is dumped underground in des

erts. A speaker suggested that Bangladesh should strike a deal with the fuel supplier to take back the waste.

A 1,000MW nuclear plant running at 80 percent factor for one year generates waste of 78 cubic feet, the roundtable was told.

Presenting a paper, Abdul Matin, former chief nuclear engineer of BAEC, said currently there are 436 nuclear reactors in the world generating 3

72,000MW power. Forty-four reactors with 38,848MW capacity are under construction. By 2030 there will be 862 reactors in the world generatin

g more than 800,000MW.

He said nuclear electricity generation cost is cheaper than coal or gas fired power in most countries. The cost of power from nuclear energy in F

rance is 3.93 cents per kilowatt while it is 4.42 cents for coal power and 4.30 cents for gas power. In Japan the cost of nuclear-, coal- and gas-g

enerated electricity are 6.86 cents, 6.91 cents and 6.38 cents respectively. In the USA nuclear power costs 4.65 cents, coal 3.65 and gas 4.90 c

ents.

Matin explained why there was a renewed interest in nuclear power worldwide. "World's fossil fuel reserves are limited and depleting fast. There

is growing concern about emission of greenhouse gases from the combustion of fossil fuels and the consequent global warming and climate ch

ange. At the same time, nuclear power provides a safe, environmentally clean and economically viable alternative source of power generation,"

he said.

He noted that if 50 percent of our 13.5 trillion cubic feet of gas is dedicated to electricity, it will provide 3200MW for 30 years. If 90 percent of 1,0

00 million tonnes of the country's coal is dedicated to power generation, it will produce 15,750MW power for 30 years.

The country's power demand will shoot to 5,720MW next year, 9,211MW in 2015, 14,172MW in 2020 and 20,823MW in 2025. Presently the co

untry can supply up to 4,162MW of power.

In the short term, Bangladesh may import electricity from neighbouring countries, improve plant efficiency, import Liquefied Natural Gas and tak

e up conservation measures. In medium term, the country may go for coal and gas exploration, interconnect the national grid with neighbouring

countries, go for two 1,000MW nuclear power plants in Rooppur, to be in commission in 2016 and 17.

In the long term, the country should use coal on a large scale for power and take up four 1,000MW nuclear plants for base load in Chittagong a

nd Khulna to be in commission between 2022 and 2026.  

N-power plant discussionHopes revolve round N-plant

Former chief nuclear engineer of BAEC Abdul Matin presents his paper on nuclear energy at the roundtable on "Prospects of nuclear power in

Bangladesh" at The Daily Star conference room yesterday.

Nuclear scientists, energy experts and policymakers yesterday said the country has no alternative but to set up nuclear power plants to meet th

e country's growing energy demands but called for extensive precautions to prevent a future nuclear catastrophe.

Prof Jamilur Reza Choudhury

President, Buet Alumni Association

Professor Jamilur Reza Chowdhury, who moderated the roundtable, observed that there is a huge prospect for nuclear power in Bangladesh.

“We have realized that there is no alternative to setting up nuclear power plants to ensure energy security in Bangladesh. If we have a proper p

lan and can move forward with that we will be able to generate nuclear power in 6 to 7 years,” he said in his concluding remarks.

He said guidelines to establish nuclear power plant are already written in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) milestone document.

Choudhury, Vice-Chancellor of Brac University, assured the State Minister for Science and ICT of extending all types of cooperation to the gove

rnment's nuclear power plan.

Toufiq-e-Elahi Chowdhury

Adviser to the Prime Minister on Power and Energy

The power and energy adviser Toufiq-e-Elahi Chowdhury said creating a nuclear power regulatory authority and operator is a must to go forwar

d with the plan to set up nuclear power plants in Bangladesh.

He said the government is committed to the nuclear power project as a long-term solution to the power crisis in a country that has limited fossil fuel.

“It is a good way of taking position against uncertainties that loom large. But I feel sad that our engineers set up nuclear power plants in other c

ountries, whereas we could not do it in our own,” he said.

Chowdhury said the government is open to new ideas but the work must start now as setting up a nuclear power plant can take five or ten year

s.

The former energy secretary also advocated the use of power plants to open up options with dual fuel. He said that although dual fuel plants co

st an additional ten percent, they are more effective and sustainable.

Yeafesh Osman

State Minister for Science and ICT

State minister for Science and ICT Yeafesh Osman said there is no alternative to the introduction of nuclear power in Bangladesh.

“We have no time to waste, we mean business,” the minister said. “We have already decided to set up the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, now w

e have to work to remove the technical problems,” he said.

Yeafesh reiterated the government's pledge to provide power as outlined in their election manifesto.

The state minister said although Bangladesh does not want "charity" from other countries, the government would welcome assistance in a "win-

win" situation.

Dr C S Karim

Former Adviser to the caretaker government

Former adviser C S Karim said Bangladesh risks incurring a 30 percent rise in costs by delaying the start of nuclear power plants.

He cited the cases of Japan and South Korea as countries who have started their own nuclear power plants when they did not have the appropriate human resources.

Karim said "We must follow the international standards in setting up such plants. We must not compromise with the safety."

"Bangladesh can take lessons from the Chernobyl disaster," he said, adding, the power plant must only be started when safety has been ensur

ed.

Terming Rooppur an optimum location for setting up a nuclear power plant, Karim urged the government to train the young generation for five y

ears to work in the plant.

Dr Abdul Matin

Former chief nuclear scientist, BAEC

Former chief nuclear scientist at the Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission (BAEC), Abdul Matin, said although nuclear reactors emit practica

lly no greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, its production of radioactive wastes need special treatment and management.

Nuclear power is cost competitive with other forms of electricity generation, except where there are direct access to low-cost fuels, said Matin, a

dding, capital costs for nuclear power plants are greater than coal-fired plants and gas-fired plants.

Matin opposed an estimate that a 1000MW nuclear power plant would cost seven billion dollars, saying it could cost no more than two billion do

llars.

“If the environmental costs of fossil fuels are taken into account, nuclear is highly competitive,” Matin said, adding “There is a growing concern a

bout emission of greenhouse gases from the combustion of fossil fuels and the consequent effect on global warming and climate change.”

He said Bangladesh should build a series of nuclear power plants as part of a long-term strategy to carry the bulk of the base load of the power

system. Matin added the BAEC must immediately start recruitment and training of technical personnel for both plant operation and project man

agement.

A fresh evaluation of the site is necessary in view of the reduced flow of water in the Ganges during the dry season and BAEC must look for ad

ditional sites for future nuclear power plants in Chittaong and Khulna regions, he proposed.

Matin suggested creation of a separate and fully autonomous body like a Nuclear Power Authority to supervise the construction and cooperatio

n of nuclear power plants.

Saifur Rahman

Director, Advanced Research Institute

Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, USA

Saifur Rahman, speaking through a taped audio recording, said the government should first ensure energy, fuel and security for setting up the n

uclear power plant.

Estimating the cost for setting up a 1000 megawatt (MW) power plant at US$7 billion, he said processing nuclear fuel and the disposal of spent

fuel require special agreements which may ward off nuclear fuel suppliers.

"The cost of nuclear fuel, due to limited number of suppliers and proliferation concerns, has increased significantly over the last few years and e

xpected to go up further," Rahman said.

He said the sizes of commercial nuclear power reactors under construction today range from 1000 to 1300 MW.

"If operational and commercial viability of smaller power plants can be demonstrated, Bangladesh may consider such plants; fuel security, man

power and overall cost issues withstanding," he added.

Rahman said the nuclear power reactor needs to be refuelled every 18 to 24 months with fresh fuel for a part of the reactor when the spent fuel

is removed and stored. "And this fuel is not available in the open market like coal, oil or gas," he said.

To accept a 1000 MW or similar sized power plant, he said the grid capacity needs to be at least 10,000 MW. He added the only way a 1000 M

W nuclear power plant would be feasible here is if Bangladesh connects its electric power grid with India or Myanmar which would raise the effe

ctive grid capacity much higher than the current 4,000 MW.

Prof AMM Safiullah

Vice-chancellor, Buet

Buet Vice chancellor Prof AMM Shafiullah said it is imperative to develop human resources in the engineering universities to build the knowledg

e base on nuclear power.

“We also need to develop a nuclear culture. We do not have alternative other than nuclear power plant,” he said.

He said China has 11 nuclear reactors, India 17, Pakistan three and South Korea has 20 nuclear reactors in operation, so Bangladesh shouldn

't fall behind.

“We are shifting from an agrarian country to an industrial one. Thus, we have to go for power generation for energy security. And the question h

ere is how we can ensure uninterrupted supply of fuel,” he added

Prof Shafiullah said Bangladesh can share experiences of others and choose the best available option in this regard. “Third generation type pla

nt will be the option for us. But we need to see whether it is economically viable, environment-friendly and safe,” the BUET VC said.

Regarding disposal of wastes, he said initiatives can be taken to devise a plan with the help of foreign experts. “On the other hand, we need to

identify and fill-up skill shortages."

Profesor M A Quaiyum

Former chairman, BAEC

Former BAEC chairman MA Quaiyum said a new management system is required to operate a complex nuclear power plant.

"If we want to implement the Rooppur power plant we should have different management divisions, rather than the existing bureaucracy," he sa

id.

He said a separate authority, similar to the one for the Jamuna Bridge, could be created to check corruption.

M Nurul Islam

Professor, Buet

Buet professor Nurul Islam said Bangladesh does not have adequate capacity to operate and maintain power plants.

He outlined several safety issues for nuclear power plants and said the existing bureaucracy may not be able to adequately manage nuclear po

wer plants.

Nurul blamed successive governments for failing to finalise the coal policy for the last three years, saying a similar fate may await nuclear powe

r policy.

At present, he said 18 countries around the world possess the uranium of nuclear power and of the total stock seven countries possess 90 perc

ent.

Aminul Haque

Professor, Buet

Aminul Haque said even some bigger nuclear power plants could be established if the safety measures is ensured.

Saying more nuclear experts are required, he suggested changes in the curricula at universities to build up human resources.

Mahbubur Rahman

Director, Nuclear Safety and Radiation Control Division, BAEC

Mahbubur Rahman urged the government to form the legal framework for establishing the plant in line with the guidelines of the International A

tomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for sustainability.

He also advised the creation of two 1000MW nuclear power plants so that at least one could be in operation in case of any accident.

Ali Zulquarnain

BAEC

Ali Zulkarnain suggested the government change the current salary structure of technical experts to attract bright recruits to this sector.

He also warned against corruption in the project, saying "We must not compromise with any graft in implementing the Rooppur Nuclear Power

Plant."

Shawkat Akbar

Principal Scientific Officer, BAEC

Shawkat Akbar said authorities must build nuclear power plants to reduce dependence on gas and coal-based power.

The provision of nuclear power has been incorporated in the National Energy Policy in 1996, and was re-incorporated in 2006. In 2008, the nuc

lear power provision was again added, he said.

Akbar explained the nuclear power plant's institutional framework includes the concept of nuclear power authority, how fuel would be supplied,

who will be guarantor and how waste will be disposed of.

“The international community is looking at the nuclear power plant positively. International Atomic Energy Agency could be the guarantor of sup

plying fuel,” he noted.

Engineer Obaidul Awal

Former chairman, BAEC

Former chairman Obaidul Awal said a comprehensive and in-depth review of the financial and environmental effects of creating a nuclear power plant is required.

There are Bangladeshi engineers who set up nuclear power plants in many countries including South Korea and Pakistan and they could help i

n this regard, he said.

He said Bangladesh should take nuclear power seriously and immediately chalk out plans as it is already a signatory to the Comprehensive Tes

t Ban Treaty (CTBT).

Awal said fuel supply is unlikely to be a problem and suggested the government approach South Korea and Japan to supply fuel for the nuclear

power plant as Japan generates 40 percent of its total power from nuclear plants.

Ensuring water supply to cool the nuclear power plants, however, is very important and this should be very carefully thought before going for su

ch plant, the scientist said.

Dr M Anwar Hossain

Vice chancellor, Ahsanullah Engineering University

Anwar Hossain suggested the nuclear power plant should be set up in a more remote or coastal area, instead of Rooppur. He said the Rooppu

r site could be better utilised for fossil fuel-based power plants.

Monzurul Hoque

Engineer, BAEC

Monzurul Haque said the government must design a long-term plan for power generation despite the increasing demand for power.

“We are not serious about electricity. The use of air conditioners, fans and refrigerators is increasing fast but we don't have any long-term plan

to increase power generation. We couldn't make a plan ever since the independence of the country," he said.

He said there are several steps to set up nuclear power plants but the government has to take lead in initiating short, medium and long-term me

asures to ensure energy security.

Farid Uddin Ahmed

Member, Physical Science, BAEC

BAEC member Farid Uddin Ahmed said Bangladesh cannot afford to wait any longer to decide its energy future.

“Bangladesh should no longer wait. When energy crisis and its cost is increasing day by day, we need to take decision right now,” observed Farid Uddin Ahmed.

He said Bangladesh would need to train experts at the IAEA and prepare a nuclear law.

Muhammad Aziz Khan,

Chairman, Summit Group

Aziz Khan said that the country has diverged from its Power System Master Plan that envisioned several large power projects like Sirajganj 450

MW, Meghnaghat 450MW II and III which did not come into operation.

He said the cost of nuclear power per kilowatt is less attractive than fossil-fuel based power.

Syed Shareq Rashid

Electrical engineer

Syed Shareq Rashid urged the government to review the country's energy reserves, especially gas, to reduce the people's confusion about the

country's state of energy.

He suggested the estimated $7 billion investment for a nuclear power plant would be too great for Bangladesh and the country should concentr

ate on coal and gas energy instead.

Mahfuz Anam

Editor, The Daily Star

The Daily Star Editor Mahfuz Anam said he was happy to see the government policymakers are already committed to nuclear power.

“Nuclear power generation may take time but we have to start now as energy and water are going to be the issues in future,” he said, adding th

at Bangladesh requires huge energy strength.

He asked for more writings on nuclear power to create public opinion about the issue. “We need to give people a clear idea that we require nuc

lear power. People should know that we are following the right idea,” said Mahfuz Anam.

He said this is the right time to take the necessary action to build the nuclear power plant to meet the growing demand for power in the country.

Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI) president Annisul Huq, executive director Buet Alumni Association (B

uetaa) Sadiqul Islam Bhuiyan and Buetaa vice president Serajul Majid Mamoon attended the seminar, among others.  

MoU may be signed on N-power plant Wednesday

Mon, May 11th, 2009 7:26 pm BdST

Maruf Mallick

bdnews24.com energy correspondent

Dhaka, May 11 (bdnews24.com)—Bangladesh and Russia might sign a Memorandum of Understanding on Wednesday on installation of a nucle

ar power plant, officials said on Monday.

Prime minister Shiekh Hasina provisionally approved the draft MoU, officials said last week.

A high-powered Russian delegation is expected to arrive in Dhaka on Tuesday to sign the deal.

Science secretary Najmul Huda Khan told bdnews24.com on Monday that they made a lot of ground in the negotiations.

"We are also in favour of searching all avenues for competitive advantage for Bangladesh. Because it is a mega project," he said.

Bangladesh and Russia finalised the draft MOU following a three-day meeting last month in Dhaka where they had agreed on installation of the

plant.

Ministry officials said the capacity of the power plant would be finalised in the final deal but the government decided to set up two plants, each w

ith 1000 megawatt capacity.

Russia did not specify the financial terms which would be settled after the final agreement, said the officials with direct knowledge of the negotiat

ions.

Sources said Russia was interested to provide loan, probably on easy terms, rather than grant. The Economic Relation Division will settle the fin

ancial terms and conditions after the MoU is signed.

Russia supplied 10 nuclear power plants last year and has supplied as many as 65 plants to Iran, India, China, Armenia, Ukraine, Hungary, Slov

akia, Czech Republic, Finland, Bulgaria and Germany. Currently it is constructing 11 power plants in countries.

The first initiative to install nuclear power plant in Bangladesh in Rooppur, Pabna was taken in 1961.

Currently 439 power plants are producing 16 percent of total electricity around the world.

China and South Korea also approached Bangladesh to set up new clear power plant

Dhaka and Moscow today signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on setting up a nuclear power plant in Bangladesh and its peaceful u

se.

Acting Chairman of Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission Mosharraf Hossain and head of the three-member Russian delegation NM Fpaffkiy

signed the MoU this afternoon at the Ministry of Science and Information and Communication Technology (ICT).

On March 18, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina told the parliament that her government would set up a nuclear power plant to meet the growing dem

and for power. “We are taking initiative to set up a nuclear power plant at Rooppur site,” Hasina said responding to question from a member duri

ng the prime minister's question-answer session in the parliament.

China and South Korea also offered assistance to Bangladesh for setting up the nuclear power plant. China was willing to support Bangladesh to

set up a nuclear power plant on the China-Pakistan model.

International Atomic Energy Agency already agreed to provide assistance to Bangladesh and approved a Technical Assistance Project on Roop

pur Nuclear Power Plant for the cycle 2009-2011.

Bangladesh Power demand and Solar business senario!!

BangladeshLight can change lives, which is why the residents of this small village are beaming about one project that is harnessing the power of the sun.BangladeshThe program trains village women to install and repair solar panels and electrical outlets on homes and businesses.“This kind of job will help the women and they will be able to contribute financially to their family. It will be good if this kind of job opportunity expands,” Trainee Monowara said after coming down from installing a solar panel on the roof of a villager’s house.While increasing her own family’s income she says her work is also changing the lives of her neighbors.This kind of job will help the women and they will be able to contribute financially to their family. –Monowara, trainee solar installerBangladesh“I used kerosene lamp for the light but it blackened my house with soot,” she said.Now Begum and her family can breathe easier and have appliances in their home.But the panels don’t come cheap. They cost about $300 dollars — around half of what Bangladeshi’s earn per year on average.“You know the first barrier was high up on the cost of the solar system. We’ve overcome that problem by introducing micro-credit tools. The people, when they buy a solar home system they don’t have to pay all the money at a time,” Grameen Shakti Senior Manager Fazley Rabbi said.And the solar power program is self-sustaining — the cost of the panels pays for the training of the local technicians.Solar power isn’t just being used in homes here in fact nearly every single business along this street is using it and some are making

much bigger profits because of it.Tailor, Ekabaar Ali, says the solar light means more time to sew and sell his clothes.“We could not work much before we got the solar power. We had to stop work before sun set. But now we can work until 10 in the night so it boosts my income. It’s good,” He said.His boss, the shop owner, said his profits have nearly doubled since the solar panel was installed.The solar power program has also sparked an entrepreneurial spirit in the village.“They’re using the energy in different ways so they can earn more money. One business is they’re renting the light to others.” Grameen Shakti’s Fazley Rabbi said.Another moneymaking venture is linked to the popularity and cheap cost of cell phones.One solar powered shop in the village offers a charging station for a few cents per charge. After all what good is a cell-phone if the battery is dead?Grameen Shakti technicians have installed 550,000 home solar systems in 40,000 villages since the program began in 1996.Bangladesh’s abundance of sunlight is being harnessed on a massive scale to try and improve the lives of its impoverished residents.

Fixing problem of Bangladesh power sector Aman Ullah

BANGLADESH'S power sector has, of late, been in the news, talkshows and not to mention in family gossips creating an atmosphere of helplessness and despair to the extent that the people without electricity, water have joined in street protests.

If we analyse the situation starting with the actual capacity -- installed capacity of the country now stands at 6005MW (with the recently installed 51MW plant in Fenchugonj) from 354 units in 44 power stations having an average generation of 3700MW against an estimated demand of for 7000MW -- and if we factor in the 15% system loss caused by faulty lines and conditions of plants that have outlived their useful lives, the power generation figure will be even less. Out of the 6005MW installed capacity, 18 plants varying in sizes from 10MW to 90MW generating 624MW were installed during the periods April, 2008 and June 2009 and a large number of such plants were on 3-15 years rental leases.

Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) is responsible for distribution of electricity in most of the areas in Bangladesh except Dhaka Metropolitan City and its adjoining areas under DESA and DESCO, areas under West Zone Power Distribution Company Ltd (WZPDCL) and some of the rural areas under Rural Electrification Board (REB).

At present only 47% of the population is served with electricity and the per capita electricity consumption is only 156Kwh (fiscal-2009) which is one of the lowest in the world.

In order to mitigate the demand shortfall, the present Government has, as the reports said, recently taken the following measures:-

1) Approved a project to build ten "peaking power plants" costing Tk72.03 billion (7203 crore) which will produce 830MW of power by end 2011.

2) Approved a project costing Tk 10.25 billion (1025 crore) to modify and renovate the units #3,4 and 5 of the Ashugonj Power Plant Complex which were built in the late 70's and early 80's.

3) Approved bids of two companies for four power plants of a combined capacity of 270MW which will use furnace oil and will come on stream by June 2011.

In addition to the above, concrete steps and some intervening measures have been/are being, taken. These include:

1) Importing LNG from Qatar to offset the gas shortage;

2) Actively considering installing nuclear power plants through Russian assistance which involve a time span of over 10 years for building;

3) Importing electricity from India, Nepal, Bhutan and Myanmar;

4) Erection of transmission lines from Bahrampur in West Bengal to Bheramara in Kushtia to allow importation of 250MW of electricity from India;

5) Shutting down some fertiliser factories and diverting gas for power generation;

6) Rationing the use of air conditioners in private homes/offices; and,

7) Encouraging use of alternate sources of energy i.e. solar energy, bio-fuel etc.

The power shortages have impacted significantly the industrial sector and the apparel/RMG sector is the worst affected one. Data available from the Research Cell of BGMEA indicates that due to actual "load shedding", the loss to the apparel/RMG sector is around Tk. 3902 million by way of lost revenue and exports and the cost of generating power through own generators during the load shedding period totals around Tk. 6131 million. The leaders of the apparel industry -- Bangladesh Garments Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) and Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA) met the Prime Minister's Energy Adviser and the State Minister for Power on March 16 last to highlight the crisis and the latter were reported to have "assured to take appropriate steps" to address the same. During last seven months of the current fiscal until January 2010, fiscal year the industry lost $606.36 million in exports, representing a drop of 7.0% on a year on year basis. The power crisis has reportedly compelled BKMEA member units to halt regular production in Dhaka, Chittagong, Gazipur, Savar and Narayangonj. Such units failed to gain even 50% of the targeted production level and the industry leaders are apprehensive whether the export target of $7297.21 billion set for this sector this fiscal would at all be achieved. They have sought direct and prompt initiatives/directives form the Prime Minister to improve the power situation on a 'fast track" basis.

In addition to the loss of revenue and exports, there is a looming danger/threat of losing buyers due to delayed shipments/failed shipments. This will not only adversely impact the export earnings but also create unemployment as factories would be compelled to lay off workers in the absence of orders. Then, this might trigger labour unrest and chaos in this organised sector. The other industrial, agriculture and service sectors are also impacted and are burdened with a large amount of losses in revenues and employment.

While inaugurating a power plant in Fenchugonj, the Prime Minister had earlier recognised the power sector as being the driving force for the development of the country. However, the stark reality shows a very dismal scenario. Aside from 'adhoc" measures to mitigate the emergent crisis, there is yet no sign of any effective planning with specific goals and objectives within a time-bound roadmap backed by appropriate/investor friendly policies and strategies to address the problems in power sector. This has led to shying away of some potential investors from Bangladesh. All we hear now from the government dignitaries are only lofty/vague statements having no relevance to reality.

About the existing policies pertaining to the power sector, it may be noted that the government of Bangladesh (GoB) adopted in 1996 the Private Sector Power Generation Policy (PSPGP) to promote private sector participation in generation of electricity with a view to promoting economic growth. Subsequently, through a document titled "Policy Guidelines for Enhancement of Private Participation in the Private sector, 2008" the GoB encouraged public private partnership (PPP) and allowed the private sector to (1) set up commercial power plants and (2) to supply electricity to the distribution licensees at tariff rates determined by the Bangladesh Energy Regularity Commission (BERC). Until recently the original draft PPP policy was subjected to incorporation of various provisions. But it still contains a number of anomalies. There are some provisions which are questionable and would encourage corruption and financial irregularities, some experts have noted.

The draft policy has recently been submitted by the Board of Investments (BoI) to the Cabinet Division for approval. There is yet no 'approved' PPP policy in place. Rather an "adhoc" one exists. Once approved would be gazetted and would be the official document for prospective investors. However, if the draft is approved with all the provisions proposed by the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) it would deter private participation. The delay in approval of the PPP policy, along with the proposed provisions, will keep the power sector in a limbo to the detriment of all quarters. This will adversely affect the Nation's ability to encourage industrialisation and progress.

In order for Bangladesh to get out of this dismal situation that currently exists in the power sector, certain pragmatic/immediate steps should be taken by the GoB under the direct oversight of the Prime Minister. Some such measures can be enumerated here:

A) Allow any existing industrial unit/units/groups/clusters of factories or manufacturing facilities to import power generation plants for their own establishments based on diesel, HFO up to generating capacities of five MW to 50MW; these plants are widely known as TPS (temporary power solution) plants and could be set up within a six month time cycle, provided land and appropriate permits are in place and are available on a two to five years' rental basis with an option to transfer (Build, Own and Transfer or BOT) as well. The electricity generated could then be transferred to the concerned utilities grids of the area for "wheeling"/ distribution. Hence appropriate modalities/ arrangements would need to be worked out with the concerned utilities ( BPDB/ DESA/REB) with the full backing/approval of the Energy Ministry/BERC.

B) Any existing levies/duties/ charges on these diesel/HFO-powered plants that are to be imported on a "returnable" basis, should not be imposed/applied. Naturally, appropriate checks and balances would have to be in place to avoid any misuse of the intended purpose. Such measures will enable to, at least, carry out the production by the industrial units which currently are now being hampered.

C) Ensure timely completion of the approved power projects if necessary through monitoring by special "Task Forces" of the approving Ministry.

D) Accelerate the bidding processes and issuance of work orders for projects that are currently in the pipeline and these should be put under a monitoring system as stated above.

E) Aggressively solicit support from countries/investors who are willing to set up large power plants through the use of non-gas options i.e. diesel, HFO, pet coke-based on the adhoc PPP policy. In this connection, the Bangladesh embassies, high commissions, consulates, trade offices etc., located in various countries abroad, should be activated to identify appropriate parties including non-resident Bangladeshis, supported by well orchestrated "road shows"

F) An international conference on "Power & Energy" should be convened in Dhaka immediately inviting all spectrum of stakeholders connected with the power and energy sectors. This should preferably be handled by world renowned event management companies/managers in this field. The outcome of this event, if properly managed and participated by professionals/experts, would open up doors for seeking solutions, in the medium to long term periods. This will enable the policy-makers to strategies for the next 10-15 years and in our view would be the key to achieving the "millennium development goals" and usher in a Bangladesh to a new league in the comity of nations among the middle income earning nation. We are confident the present government under the leadership of our Prime Minister with a determined and focused agenda can achieve this goal.

The writer writes from Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. He can be reached at e-mail: