Proposed Rogun Hydropower and Regional Reservoir Project (Rogun HPP)Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA)

Report by Panel of Experts*Almaty May 2011

Torkil Jønch Clausen (Chair)Erik Helland-Hansen

* Desk review by Richard Fuggle and Frederic Giovannetti

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PANEL OF EXPERTSPURPOSE OF FIRST VISIT

Inception visit: Review of consultants’ Inception Report

( - detailed comments to consultants) Site visit Initial discussions with Government of Tajikistan and World Bank and consultants

First impressions Questions and identification of some key issues/challenges

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ROLE OF ESIA

Independent comprehensive assessment: All environmental and social impacts

- positive and negative- all stages: construction through operation- all affected areas, from reservoir to Aral Sea

Based on good international practice

Sound basis for national and regional assessment

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ESIA and TEAS

Two studies - two consultants - two POEs ONE Rogun HPP

Need for close coordination, on e.g. Hydrology Geology Economics Dam optimization, cost and operations

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THE BASIN CONTEXT

Rogun HPP in Vakhsh-Amu Darya context: Vakhsh River contributing some 20-30% of Amu Darya flow Upstream of Nurek Dam (300 m, initial reservoir 10.5 cu.km.) Upstream in Vakhsh cascade

Potential incremental impacts to be seen in basin context, and extent of project impacts defined

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THE NUREK DAM

Nurek HPP: Similar size as Rogun HPP Operation for hydropower (3000 MW) with irrigation off-takes Effective sediment trap

Almost 40 years of operational and impact experience

Need to draw on Nurek lessons learned 6

CATCHMENT AND RESERVOIR

Some key biophysical issues: Highly naturally erosive upstream catchment Loss of fertile agricultural land Deep stratified reservoir

Marginal human influence on upper catchment Particular focus on future reservoir behavior/conditions

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RESETTLEMENT

Resettlement in progress – a promising start: Formation of Directorate Resettlement of several households in progress Concern about former Soviet resettlement legacy

Compensation or enhancement? Start Public Consultation and Disclosure Plan early

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DAM SITE ISSUES

Some site visit impressions: Deficiencies in occupational health conditions Site preparation, waste and land management challenging

Accident records/analyses as basis for improvement

Immediate focus on site conditions

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DOWNSTREAM ISSUES- THE SETTING -

Rogun HPP downstream impacts: On the Nurek HHP From Nurek to Vakhsh/Pyanj confluence Downstream Amu Darya from confluence Vakhsh/Pyanj

Need for factual information Dialogue among riparians (Nukus Declaration spirit)

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DOWNSTREAM ISSUES- KEY ANALYSES -

Rogun HPP downstream impact assessment calls for: Strong focus on hydrology: entire Basin, agreed datasets (TEAS- ESIA cooperation) Nurek history/experience Impacts in Vakhsh cascade context

Assessment now: Stage 1, alternatives/SEA, Stage 2

Hydrometry stations on both Vakhsh and Pyanj

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PARTICULAR COORDINATION ISSUES

Rogun HPP alternatives: Study of power supply options of Tajikistan- including Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)- including analysis of alternatives

Optimization of dam height

Scheduling and coordination challenge12

CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change analysis included in TOR, but adequately? Hydrologic stationarity problem => uncertain flow estimates Downstream impacts from entire basin

Need for up-to -date, state-of-art analysis of entire basin Need for risk management approaches

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SUMMARY OF KEY DRIVERS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

KEY DRIVERS FOR THE ANALYSIS1. Basin hydrology2. Dam height3. Reservoir operations

KEY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ESIA PROCES1. Coordinate TEAS and ESIA closely2. Assess Rogun HPP in the wider basin context3. Give immediate attention to site conditions and occupational

health4. Promote dialogue and information sharing among riparians5. More attention to climate change6. Incorporate lessons learned from Nurek HPP

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THANK YOU

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