Property Market Research & Statistics - REPORT · 2017-08-16 · Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13...

Housing Market and

Economic Update

January 2017

© 2017 CoreLogic, Inc. ■ Proprietary & Confidential

SAMPLE REPORT

Housing overview

© 2017 CoreLogic, Inc. ■ Proprietary & Confidential2

SAMPLE REPORT

Residential real estate underpins Australia's

wealth and has reached a portfolio value

of $6.8 trillion

3

As at the end of December 2016

Residential Real Estate

$6.8 Trillion

Australian Superannuation

$2.1 Trillion

Australian Listed Stocks

$1.7 Trillion

Commercial Real Estate

$0.898 Trillion

Source: CoreLogic, APRA, ABS, RBA, ASX

Number of dwellings

9.7 million

Outstanding

mortgage debt

$1.61 trillion

Household wealth

held in housing

51.6%

Total sales p.a.

465,469

Gross value of

sales p.a.

$271.1 billion


SAMPLE REPORT

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Dec 96 Dec 98 Dec 00 Dec 02 Dec 04 Dec 06 Dec 08 Dec 10 Dec 12 Dec 14 Dec 16

The change in home values throughout the 2016

calendar year was the highest since the 2009

4

Rolling annual change in dwelling values, combined capital cities

Median Prices Capital Gain

$650,000Houses Units Dwellings

Past 12 months 11.6% 5.9% 10.9%

$536,000Annual over five years 7.4% 5.6% 7.1%

Annual over ten years 5.9% 5.3% 5.8%

CoreLogic’s suite of hedonic indices are

available across broad housing types and

across geographical areas including

statistical divisions, statistical subdivisions

and postcodes nationally. For further

information an our hedonic method, please

visit www.corelogic.com.au/indices

Source: CoreLogic


SAMPLE REPORT

http://www.corelogic.com.au/indices

15.5%

13.7%

3.6%

4.2%

-4.3%

11.2%

0.9%

9.3%

10.9%

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

Combined capitals

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

Past 12 months 10 year average annual

Most capital cities have recorded stronger

value growth over the past year compared to

average annual growth over the past decade

5

Capital gain: Average over 10 years v past 12 months Annual change in capital city dwelling values

Source: CoreLogic


SAMPLE REPORT

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Dec-01 Dec-06 Dec-11 Dec-16

0

200

400

600

800

Dec-96 Dec-01 Dec-06 Dec-11 Dec-160

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000


0

5,000

10,000

15,000


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000


Turnover: settled sales

were trending higher

prior to the December

slowdown

6

Note up-to-date sales are estimates based on settled dwelling sales and will revise higher as off the plan sales move through to settlement.

Source: CoreLogic

Combined capitals

Sydney

Brisbane

Perth

Darwin

Melbourne

Adelaide

Hobart

Canberra

12 month avg


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000


0

500

1,000

1,500


SAMPLE REPORT

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16

Nu

mb

er

of

au

cti

on

s

Cle

ara

nc

e r

ate

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

Nov 06 Nov 08 Nov 10 Nov 12 Nov 14 Nov 16

0

20

40

60

80

100

Nov 06 Nov 08 Nov 10 Nov 12 Nov 14 Nov 16

7

Vendor metrics: clearance rates remained above

70% throughout most of December 2016Combined capital city auction clearance rates and volumes

Avg vendor discount, combined capitals Avg time on market, combined capitals

CoreLogic’s suite of vendor metrics are available across broad housing types and across geographical areas including statistical divisions, statistical subdivisions and postcodes nationally.

Note that we typically see a seasonal peak in average time on market each year in January and February.

Source: CoreLogic


SAMPLE REPORT

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17

Total listings New listings

8

The number of residential properties advertised for

sale have entered their seasonal slowdown

National number of new and total listings, rolling 4 weeks to 01/01/2017

State and territory property listings Capital city property listings

Source: CoreLogic


Capital cityNo of new

listings

12 mth

change (%)

No of total

listings

12 mth

change (%)

Sydney 2,153 27.2% 15,779 -7.1%

Melbourne 2,926 12.1% 24,128 0.6%

Brisbane 2,192 11.5% 18,571 19.4%

Adelaide 1,029 26.3% 7,328 8.9%

Perth 2,142 16.7% 20,152 9.5%

Hobart 320 11.5% 1,693 -32.6%

Darwin 62 -6.1% 1,459 -0.1%

Canberra 206 76.1% 1,602 -14.8%

Combined capitals 11,030 17.5% 90,712 3.7%

StateNo of new

listings

12 mth

change (%)

No of total

listings

12 mth

change (%)

NSW 6,068 20.1% 40,008 -18.8%

Vic 5,635 15.9% 48,451 -1.5%

Qld 6,074 12.5% 63,222 8.8%

SA 1,817 24.3% 17,439 9.5%

WA 3,503 17.7% 34,326 5.2%

Tas 956 22.9% 7,463 -23.7%

NT 88 -5.4% 2,007 1.9%

ACT 212 75.2% 1,661 -13.8%

National 24,353 17.4% 214,577 -1.9%

Note that figures represent the number of residential properties captured as being advertised for sale. This count is based on individual campaigns that have been matched to a CoreLogic property record, and therefore

represents a unique property count.

SAMPLE REPORT

35.8% 43.2% 50.0% 47.7% 49.6% 56.6% 50.8% 47.8%

20.0%21.3% 17.1% 23.6% 24.5% 24.5%

14.9% 18.7%

44.3% 35.5% 32.9% 28.6% 25.9% 22.9% 34.3% 33.5%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT

Owner occupier new loans Owner occupier refinances Investors

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

Oct-96 Oct-00 Oct-04 Oct-08 Oct-12 Oct-16

Tota

l val

ue

($b

)

Owner occupier new loans

Owner occupier refinances

Investment

9

Investor lending has consistently risen since

May 2016 while owner occupier lending slows

Value of housing finance commitments – monthly, national

Owner

occupier loans

(excl. refi)

$13.1b

Investor loans

$12.5b

Housing finance commitments by type and state, September 2016

Source: CoreLogic, ABS


SAMPLE REPORT

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Nov-91 Nov-96 Nov-01 Nov-06 Nov-11 Nov-16

Housing Business Other personal

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Nov-96 Nov-01 Nov-06 Nov-11 Nov-16

Owner occupier housing Investment housing

10

The annual pace of housing credit growth is

slowing however, investor credit is expandingAnnual change in total housing credit, owner occupiers vs investors

Proportion of total outstanding credit to ADIs

10% pa growth

Source: CoreLogic, RBA


SAMPLE REPORT

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16

Number of platform events v Number of owner occ housing finance commitments

CoreLogic Mortgage Index ABS Owner Occupier Housing Finance

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16

Monthly % change in platform events v Number of owner occ housing finance commitments

CoreLogic Mortgage Index ABS Owner Occupier Housing Finance

11

After moving through a recent high in November,

mortgage demand fell in December

CoreLogic’s Mortgage Index measures valuation activity across RP Data platforms, which more than 90% of ADI valuation requests nationally use, providing an almost real time indicator for how

much mortgage activity is taking place. For more information, contact RP Data via email: [email protected]

Source: CoreLogic


SAMPLE REPORT

mailto:[email protected]

Capital city housing market indicators

12 © 2017 CoreLogic, Inc. ■ Proprietary & Confidential

SAMPLE REPORT

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Dec-01 Dec-04 Dec-07 Dec-10 Dec-13 Dec-16

13

CoreLogic’s suite of hedonic indices are available across broad housing types and across geographical areas including statistical divisions, statistical subdivisions and postcodes nationally. For

further information an our hedonic method, please visit www.corelogic.com.aui/indices

Source: CoreLogic

Annual change in dwelling values Sydney home values

rose by 2.4% over

the final quarter of

2016 to finish the

year 15.5% higher.

Home values have

increased at their

fastest annual rate

since they increased

by 17.6% over the

year to September

2015

Sydney

Combined

capitals


SAMPLE REPORT

http://www.corelogic.com.aui/indices

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


14

Annual change in dwelling values Melbourne home

values increased by

2.4% over the last

quarter of 2016 and

are 13.7% higher

over the past year.

The annual rate of

value growth is at its

highest levels since

its recent peak of

14.2% in September

2015

Melbourne

Combined

capitals



Source: CoreLogic


SAMPLE REPORT


-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


15

Annual change in dwelling values Brisbane home

values have

increased by 1.8%

over the final

quarter of 2016 and

rose by 3.6%

throughout 2016.

Brisbane home

values have

increased by a total

of 16.4% over the

past eight years.

Brisbane

Combined

capitals



Source: CoreLogic


SAMPLE REPORT


-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


16

Annual change in dwelling values Adelaide home

values fell by -1.6%

over the final

quarter of 2016

however, they rose

by 4.2% throughout

2016. Values have

increased by a

cumulative 15.9%

over the past eight

years.

Adelaide

Combined

capitals



Source: CoreLogic


SAMPLE REPORT


-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


17

Annual change in dwelling values Perth home values

rose by 2.8% over

the fourth quarter of

2016 however, they

are -4.3% lower over

the past year. Home

values across the

city have increased

by just 8.4% since

the end of 2008.

Perth

Combined

capitals



Source: CoreLogic


SAMPLE REPORT


-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


18

Annual change in dwelling values Hobart home values

have increased by

2.1% over the final

three months of

2016 and are 11.2%

higher over the past

year. Hobart home

values are now

rising at their fastest

annual pace since

they increased by

11.3% over the 12

months to Jan-05

Hobart

Combined

capitals



Source: CoreLogic


SAMPLE REPORT


-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


19

Annual change in dwelling values Darwin home values

have increased by

5.9% over the final

quarter of 2016 and

are 0.9% higher over

the past year.

Values across the

city have increased

by just 22.2% over

the past eight years.

Darwin

Combined

capitals



Source: CoreLogic


SAMPLE REPORT


-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


20

Annual change in dwelling values Canberra home

values have

increased by 0.2%

over the final

quarter of 2016 and

are 9.3% higher over

the past year. Over

the past year, home

values have

increased at their

fastest rate since

they rose 10.0% over

the year to Sep-10.

Canberra

Combined

capitals



Source: CoreLogic


SAMPLE REPORT


Macroeconomic and demographic indicators

21 © 2017 CoreLogic, Inc. ■ Proprietary & Confidential

SAMPLE REPORT

1.4%

2.1%

1.4%

0.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.2%

1.3%

1.4%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUST

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Jun-86 Jun-96 Jun-06 Jun-16

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Jun-86 Jun-96 Jun-06 Jun-16

020,00040,00060,00080,000

100,000120,000140,000

Jun-86 Jun-91 Jun-96 Jun-01 Jun-06 Jun-11 Jun-16

22

Housing demand: Victoria is leading the way in

terms of the rate of population growthQuarterly change in national population

Net overseas migration Natural increase Annual change in population



SAMPLE REPORT

23

Housing supply: October dwelling approvals

plunge to the lowest level in 2 years

Monthly number of dwelling approvals, national

National dwelling approvals, houses v units Monthly % of total dwelling approvals



SAMPLE REPORT

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Oct-86 Oct-91 Oct-96 Oct-01 Oct-06 Oct-11 Oct-16

Total quarterly dwelling approvals Quarterly change in population growth

24

Housing supply: the gap between housing

demand and supply has narrowed substantially

over recent years

Quarterly dwellings approved for construction v quarterly change in population, national



SAMPLE REPORT

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

Dec-98 Dec-01 Dec-04 Dec-07 Dec-10 Dec-13 Dec-16

Consumer sentiment Capital city home values

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


Consumer Sentiment (LHS)

Sales vols (Syd, Mel and Bris) (RHS)

60

80

100

120

140


Consumer Sentiment Index Six month rolling average

25

Consumer sentiment dipped into pessimistic

territory in December 2016

Consumer sentiment index

Annual change in consumer

sentiment v dwelling values

Consumer sentiment

v dwelling sales

Source: CoreLogic, Westpac-Melbourne Institute


SAMPLE REPORT

60.0

61.0

62.0

63.0

64.0

65.0

66.0

67.0


%

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0


%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Nov-96 Nov-98 Nov-00 Nov-02 Nov-04 Nov-06 Nov-08 Nov-10 Nov-12 Nov-14 Nov-16

Full-time employment Part-time employment

26

Labour force: jobs growth over the past year

entirely due to part-time employment

Annual change in employment, full time v part time

National unemployment rate National participation rate



SAMPLE REPORT

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

Oct-96 Oct-00 Oct-04 Oct-08 Oct-12 Oct-16

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

Jan-93 Jan-97 Jan-01 Jan-05 Jan-09 Jan-13 Jan-17

Standard variable mortgage rates Cash rate 3 year fixed rate

27

Mortgage rates: while the cash rate remains on

hold, fixed rate mortgage rates have increased

Mortgage rates and cash rate over time

% of owner occupier loan commitments

on fixed rate

ASX cash rate futures implied yield curve

Source: CoreLogic, ABS, RBA


SAMPLE REPORT

28

About Us

CoreLogic Australia is a wholly owned subsidiary of CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), which is the largest property data and analytics

company in the world. CoreLogic provides property information, analytics and services across Australia, New Zealand and Asia,

and recently expanded its service offering through the purchase of project activity and building cost information provider Cordell.

With Australia’s most comprehensive property databases, the company’s combined data offering is derived from public,

contributory and proprietary sources and includes over 500 million decision points spanning over three decades of collection,

providing detailed coverage of property and other encumbrances such as tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance

information.

With over 20,000 customers and 150,000 end users, CoreLogic is the leading provider of property data, analytics and related

services to consumers, investors, real estate, mortgage, finance, banking, building services, insurance, developers, wealth

management and government. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory

and geo spatial services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and

mitigate risk. CoreLogic employs over 650 people across Australia and in New Zealand. For more information call 1300 734 318 or

visit www.corelogic.com.au

CoreLogic produces an advanced suite of housing market analytics that provides key insights for understanding housing market

conditions at a granular geographic level. Granular data is often used for portfolio analysis and benchmarking, risk assessments

and understanding development feasibility and market sizing. It gives industry professionals valuable modules which provide

essential analytics and insights for decision making and strategy formation within the residential property asset class. We can tailor

reports to suit your business requirements.

Call us on 1300 734 318 or email us at [email protected] or visit us at www.corelogic.com.au


SAMPLE REPORT

29

Granular Data and Analytics

Market Scorecard: Monitor and measure market share and performance of real estate agents at an individual office or a Franchise

brand level across Australia. Identify the competing brands and independents at a suburb, postcode, user defined territory and

State level. Easily locate growth opportunities and market hotspots, and view the performance of the established offices in these

new areas of interest.

Market Trends: Detailed housing market indicators down to the suburb level, with data in time series or snapshot and segmented

across houses, units and land. The Market Trends data includes key housing market metrics such as median prices, median

values, transaction volumes, rental statistics, vendor metrics such as average selling time and vendor discounting rates.

CoreLogic RP Data Indices: The suite of CoreLogic RP Data Indices range from simple market measurements such as

median prices through to repeat sales indices and our flagship hedonic home value indices. The CoreLogic RP Data Hedonic index

has been specifically designed to track the value of a portfolio of properties over time and is relied upon by Australian regulators

and industry as the most up to date and accurate measurement of housing market performance.

Economist Pack: A suite of indices and indicators designed specifically for Australian economic commentators who require the

most up to date and detailed view of housing market conditions. The economist pack includes the CoreLogic RP Data Hedonic

indices for capital cities and ‘rest of state’ indices, the stratified hedonic index, hedonic total return index, auction clearance rates

and median prices.

Investor Concentration Report: Understanding ownership concentrations is an important part of assessing risk. Areas with high

investor concentrations are typically allocated higher risk ratings due to the over-representation of a particular segment of the

market. Through a series of rules and logic, CoreLogic RP Data has flagged the likely ownership type of every residential property

nationally as either owner occupied, investor owned or government owned.

Mortgage Market Trend Report: CoreLogic RP Data is in a unique position to monitor mortgage related housing market

activity. Transaction volumes, dwelling values and mortgage related valuation events all comprise our Mortgage market

trend report which provides an invaluable tool for mortgage industry benchmarking and strategy.


SAMPLE REPORT


Disclaimer

In compiling this publication, RP Data Pty Ltd trading as CoreLogic has relied upon information supplied by a number of external sources. CoreLogic does not warrant its

accuracy or completeness and to the full extent allowed by law excludes liability in contract, tort or otherwise, for any loss or damage sustained by subscribers, or by any

other person or body corporate arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or any part of the information in this publication through any cause

whatsoever and limits any liability it may have to the amount paid to CoreLogic for the supply of such information.

Queensland Data

Based on or contains data provided by the State of Queensland (Department of Natural Resources and Mines) 2016. In consideration of the State permitting use of this

data you acknowledge and agree that the State gives no warranty in relation to the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency or suitability) and accepts

no liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence) for any loss, damage or costs (including consequential damage) relating to any use of the data. Data must not

be used for direct marketing or be used in breach of the privacy laws.

South Australian Data

This information is based on data supplied by the South Australian Government and is published by permission. The South Australian Government does not accept any

responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the published information or suitability for any purpose of the published information or the underlying data.

New South Wales Data

Contains property sales information provided under licence from the Land and Property Information (“LPI”). CoreLogic is authorised as a Property Sales Information

provider by the LPI.

Victorian Data

The State of Victoria owns the copyright in the Property Sales Data which constitutes the basis of this report and reproduction of that data in any way without the consent of

the State of Victoria will constitute a breach of the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth). The State of Victoria does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information

contained in this report and any person using or relying upon such information does so on the basis that the State of Victoria accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever

for any errors, faults, defects or omissions in the information supplied.

Western Australian Data

Based on information provided by and with the permission of the Western Australian Land Information Authority (2015) trading as Landgate.

Australian Capital Territory Data

The Territory Data is the property of the Australian Capital Territory. No part of it may in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, microcopying, photocopying,

recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquiries should be directed to: Director, Customer

Services ACT Planning and Land Authority GPO Box 1908 Canberra ACT 2601.

Tasmanian Data

This product incorporates data that is copyright owned by the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The data has been used in the product with the permission of the Crown in Right

of Tasmania. The Crown in Right of Tasmania and its employees and agents:

a) give no warranty regarding the data's accuracy, completeness, currency or suitability for any particular purpose; and

b) do not accept liability howsoever arising, including but not limited to negligence for any loss resulting from the use of or reliance upon the data.

Base data from the LIST © State of Tasmania http://www.thelist.tas.gov.au

SAMPLE REPORT


Better data

+ Better analytics

= Better decisionsSAMPLE REPORT

Property Market Research & Statistics - REPORT · 2017-08-16 · Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13...

Documents

Transcript of Property Market Research & Statistics - REPORT · 2017-08-16 · Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13...