Promoting the Removal of Environmentally Harmful...
Transcript of Promoting the Removal of Environmentally Harmful...
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Promoting the Removal Promoting the Removal of Environmentally of Environmentally Harmful SubsidyHarmful Subsidy
Yasuhisa AzegamiMotohisa AbeKae IshiiKuniko KurosakiEri Fujii
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Flow of PresentationFlow of Presentation
1)Introduction2)What’s subsidy?
・Economic effect・Environmental impact
3)Social Purposes・Poverty reduction・Maintaining employments・Energy security
4)Conclusion
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Symptoms of Climate changes• Typhoons in
Japan this year*10 typhoons attacked
Japan islands. (It is a NEW Record.)* And especially 23rd
one was huge and killed almost 90people and the total damage was the. biggest in the last 20 years
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How about China??• Most Powerful
14th Typhoon in Seven Years called Rananim hit China and Killed 115People and Injures More Than 1,800
abcNEWS.com August 13, 2004
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Typhoons are getting more severe, violent.
Climate Changes cause more severe rainstorms.
*These threaten people’s life.*And also cause huge economic damages to
insurance companies.
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フランスの熱波
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•• We have to catch We have to catch the signals from the signals from the nature and the nature and recognize these recognize these more seriouslymore seriously……..
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Global Warming• It is caused by GHGs
• GHGs(CO2) are mainly Caused by Fossil Fuel burning (6 billion tons CO2)
and Deforestation(about1.5 billion tons CO2)
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GHGs Breakdown transition in Japan
t
地球温暖化対策推進本部2003
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Global Warming• Is caused by GHGs
• GHGs(CO2) are mainly Caused by Fossil Fuel burning (6 billion tons CO2)
and Deforestation (about 1.5 billion tons CO2)
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Huge Huge EEffecffectt of Fossil Fuel of Fossil Fuel on Global Warmingon Global Warming
From Working Group 1 SPM(IPCC Third Assessment Report
- Climate Change 2001 )
About About threethree--quartersquarters of the of the anthropogenic emissions of CO2anthropogenic emissions of CO2 to the to the atmosphere during the past 20 years is atmosphere during the past 20 years is due to due to fossilfossil fuel burningfuel burning. . The rest is predominantly due to landThe rest is predominantly due to land--useusechange, especially deforestation.change, especially deforestation.
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Worldwatch Institute
(1billion)
Carbon emission transition by Fossil Fuel burningin the world from 1950 - 2001
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
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SO,SO,The Energy IssueThe Energy Issue
(Especially, (Especially, CO2 emission from Fossil FuelCO2 emission from Fossil Fuel))
is at the is at the corecore concernconcern of of Global Warming problems.Global Warming problems.
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In the long term….
We have to reduce CO2 emission (=reduce Fossil Fuel consumption)(=reduce Fossil Fuel consumption)and use any energy efficiently (=distribute Fossil Fuel efficiently)(=distribute Fossil Fuel efficiently)to mitigate the global warming.
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Nevertheless,Nevertheless,Some Wrong Some Wrong policies are policies are
being exercised.being exercised.
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We have to reduce CO2 emission (=reduce Fossil Fuel consumption)(=reduce Fossil Fuel consumption)and use any energy efficiently (=distribute Fossil Fuel efficiently)(=distribute Fossil Fuel efficiently)to mitigate the global warming.
INCREASE Fossil Fuel consumption
DISTORT Fossil Fuel efficiency
there are some wrong policies that
and,
Nevertheless,Nevertheless,
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These areThese areEnergy Subsidies.Energy Subsidies.
distort the distort the PricePrice and and EfficiencyEfficiencyof of Fossil FuelFossil Fuel
It makes CO2 emission bigger.
Environmental Harmful Subsidies
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Effective Economic method• Public Acceptance• Various methods(such as tax cuts・duty exemption)
Decrease the economic welfareEnvironmental Harmful Subsidies
Though…
What’s Subsidy?
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Nature of subsidy
1)Loss of economic welfare(Dead Weight Loss)
2)Subsidies to polluting sectors with external costs
What’s the Theory of Subsidy?
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Economic theory of social welfareEconomic theory of social welfare
S、MC
D
CS
PS
price
quantityQ
P
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Economic theory of subsidyEconomic theory of subsidyS、MC
D
CSPSP’
price
quantityQ’
P”
P
Q
G
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Dead Weight Loss
MC
D
+-
dead weight loss of subsidy
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Subsidy in polluting sectors with external costs
MC
D
SMC
+ -
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MC
D
SMC
environmentally
economically
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Double Benefits
• Removal of EHS
economically
environmentallyimprovements
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Subsidy current condition ①
How much money is spent as subsidies??
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WaterForestryFisheries
55Negligible55Manufacturing1065340725Total
22525200Road transport24016080Energy30525Mining20101035305
4.06.33.4Total as % GDP
60451540065335Agriculture
WorldNon-OECDOECD
Van Beers et de Moor (2001)
Estimates of World Subsidies(USD billion)
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Subsidy current condition ②Many of subsidies are
Environmental Harmful.Environmental Harmful.
»Agriculture»Fishery»»EnergyEnergy
etc…
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Energy Subsidies
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
OECD Countries Former SocialistCountries
DevelopingCountries
US $
bn
Renewables
Nuclear
Electricity
Fossil fuels
Moor and van Beers(2002)
A great number of subsidies to fossil fuels
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What are the reasons of the persistence?
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Policymakers’ decision-making factors
Environment
Economy Society
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Environment
Economy Society-
-
+
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Social Purposes• Secure employment• Poverty reduction• Energy security
・・・・・・etc
These are important issues butThese do not immediately These do not immediately
justify the existence of EHS.justify the existence of EHS.
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①environment + economy > society
⇒EHS: shall be removed immediately
②environment + economy < society
⇒?
Economy
Environment Society
?
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Share of energy expenditure in income of poor households is larger than those in the richer.
⇒actually…
Poverty reductionPoverty reduction
Energy⇒ essential for life
Rich
poverty
Energy
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Subsidies actually do not
solve poverty problems.
Share of energy expenditure in household budgets(%)
5.57.2
South Africa
2.05.07.09.5Wealthy6.68.510.015.0Poverty
UKIndiaEthiopiaUganda
Subsidies are given for reducing poverty
But…
Sources: African Energy Policy Research Network, Tata Energy Research Institute(2001), Davis(1998); Department of Trade and Industry(2002)
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Case studyLPG subsidy in India
Subsidizes to small cylinder of LPG
for cooking and water heating
The rate of support 31.6%(source: IEA World Energy Outlook 1999)
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Purposes of LPG subsidy
①Expanding access tomodern energy
②Wood fuels⇒ indoor air pollution↓
high infant mortality rate
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only richer households benefit.(causing expansion of income inequality )
①failure to expand access to modern energy
demand for energy ↑
shortage of energy supply
limited sales area of LPG(only in regions with more than
20,000 inhabitants)Consequently,
LPG subsidy
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②failure to improve Infant Mortality Rate(per 1000 live birth)
1998 2000 2002
India 69 68 65Japan 4 3 3
(source: United Nations HP)
No substantial
improvement seen
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Implications from case studyLPG subsidy does not contribute to…
①expansion of access to modern energy
②improvement of infant mortality rate
Failure to fulfill social purposes
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The cause of these failures
may not be subsidy itself
but the way of targeting poverty group
ButTargeting is difficultTargeting is difficult(large monitoring costs)
Even if properly targetedAccess to energy can not always reduce poverty
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To reduce poverty・・・
It is essential toraise the standard of living !!
Policies that raises their income
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Policies that boost economyFiscal policyMonetary policy
Income support policiesBasic income guarantee
ButSome governments have no money to
carry out such policy.
Policies that raises their income
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Protective policies in developed countries(ex. subsidies to agricultural products)
⇒reduce the competitiveness in developing countries
Reform of protective policies contributes to reducing poverty
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EHS is not justified EHS is not justified for reducing poverty!!for reducing poverty!!
Poverty reductionPoverty reductionThere are policies
that do not damage to economyenvironment
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Maintaining employmentsUnemployment = big public concern
leads to povertydepresses economies
distrust of governmentsRIOTS!!
Unemployment issue cannot be neglected!
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State supports to weakening industries
maintain the existing employment
Question:
Does supporting unproductive sector really help unemployment
problem?
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What is Unemployment?Internationally agreed definition by ILOUnemployment is the state of being:1) work less than 1 hour per week2) seeking work actively over the 4
previous weeks3) ready to start working within the next 2
week.Fit to work and looking for a job but
cannot find one
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Causes of Unemployment
2 major causes:
①Depression of Economy
②Changes in the industrial structure
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① Depression of Economy
Economy decline↓
Decreased revenues↓
Restructuring↓
Dismissals, lay-offs
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Example: Asian monetary crisis 1997
real GDP growth rate 1995-98
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
year
%
Thailand 8 6.7 -0.4 -8.5
South Korea 8.3 6.9 6 -6.8
1995 1996 1997 1998
Unemployment rate 1995-98
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
year
%Thailand 3.2 2.6 3.5 4.5
South Korea 2 2 2 7.9
1995 1996 1997 1998
Source: CIA World Factbook
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For this type of unemployment…Recovery of the Economy
First Remedy
-Macroeconomic measuresmonetary policyfiscal policy
-Active investments in the development of growing, promising sectors
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EHS = supporting weakening sectors
-Retrograde, conservative support-Obstacle to economic recovery
In the broad view, not a good measure
Welfare↓ Environment↓ Employment↓
EHS to Maintain Employment
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②Changes in Industrial Structure
Industrial structure1. Primary industry…agriculture, fishery2. Secondary industry…mining, manufacturing3. Tertiary industry…advanced services,
monetary facilities
Proportions change through developmentEconomic development ⇒ primary↓ tertiary↑
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②Changes in Industrial Structure
Development↓
Sophistication of social needsDemands for labor force shift accordingly⇒Unemployment results in diminishing sector
If transfer of labor force is stagnant, unemployment increases!
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For this type of unemployment…Smooth transfer of labor force
Best Remedy
Difficulties-Mismatch of reservations-Lack of information
Measures-Broader access to employment agencies, counselors-Strengthen carrier education
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EHS to Maintain EmploymentExample) EHS to Coal Industry
Economic development in Japan⇒diminishing of coal mining
Coal self-sufficiency rate 1940s 98% 1997 2.9%
Support means confining labor force in the unproductive sector
⇒hinders economic developmentnot a good employment policy
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The world is now moving towardsGreener, Sustainable Society
World’s mind is shifting from fossil fuels towards cleaner energy
↓
Industrial Structure is shifting towards sustainable society
EHS will hamper this stream
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EHS
Economic Welfare ⇒ BADEnvironment ⇒ BADUnemployment ⇒ BAD
Cannot be justified in exercising as employment policy!
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Energy SecurityEnergy Security
• Confusion in the Middle East• Hurricanes
Lack of energy supply
Market reacted sensitively
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Volatility of crude oil pricesVolatility of crude oil prices
source:“Key world energy statistics2003”,IEA
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Source:The Institute of Energy Economics,Japan HP
US$/barrel
WTI crude oil spot pricesWTI crude oil spot prices
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In the future,Import dependency of each country
UP!UP!
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Source: Energy outlook2003 p108
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• Forthcoming resource constraints⇒fear of lowering energy security
“Improvement of energy security”becomes more and more important!
What should be done to secure energy?(Are EHS’ needed or not?)
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General ways to improve energy security
<short term>
• stockpiling
<long term>
• Diversification the sources of supply• Improvement of efficiency• Increase of domestic supply
・・・・・・etc
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stockpilingstockpiling• IEA⇒ 90days of oil stockpiling
• When supply disruption occurs⇒release oil stock into markets
※works as safety valve of market price
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stockpilingstockpiling
small costs small impacts
economyeconomy environmentenvironment
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Diversification of the sources of energyDiversification of the sources of energy
• suppliers• Primary energy sources
※need forrisk management
diversifydiversify
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small costssmall costs little negative impactslittle negative impacts
economyeconomy environmentenvironment
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Improvement of efficiencyImprovement of efficiency
<<power generationpower generation>>
Improvement ⇒same electricity with less fuels
<<save energy usesave energy use>>
Shift for less energy intensive technology⇒less demand for electricity
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Saved fuels ・・・unnecessary for additional import
improvement of energy securityimprovement of energy security
small costssmall costs emission reductionemission reduction
economyeconomy environmentenvironment
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Increase of domestic supplyIncrease of domestic supplyPromotion of ・nuclear energy
・renewable energy
steady acquisition of clean energysteady acquisition of clean energy
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insignificant costsinsignificant costsin the futurein the future
emission emission reductionreduction
economyeconomy environmentenvironment
Increase of domestic supplyIncrease of domestic supply
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• Each measures; ・costly at first but promising ・beneficial for environment
How about subsidizing for domestic fuels such as coal and oil?
Are they more
CostCost--effective?effective?EnvironmentallyEnvironmentally--friendly?friendly?
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Subsidies Subsidies in fuel exporting countriesin fuel exporting countries
Lowering domestic energy price
demand for energy use↑
energy for export↓
need for import↑
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・・worsen energyworsen energy securitysecurity!!
・・economic loss by decreased revenueeconomic loss by decreased revenuefrom energy exportfrom energy export!!
・・increase of CO2 emissionincrease of CO2 emission!!
Subsidies Subsidies in fuel exporting countriesin fuel exporting countries
Nothing but the worst wayNothing but the worst way
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SubsidiesSubsidiesin fuel importing countriesin fuel importing countries
Subsidies for coal are common⇒prevent damages from supply disruptions
But…is it essential to subsidize less productive
domestic coal?
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Coal exporting countriesCoal exporting countries
source:“Key world energy statistics2003”,IEA
exporters coal(Mt)
Australia 198
China 86
Indonasia 73
South Afriva 69
Russia 45
United States 35
Colombia 34
Canada 27
Poland 23
Kazakhstan 14
Rest of the World 36
total 640
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Volatility of coal pricesVolatility of coal prices
source:“Key world energy statistics2003”,IEA
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Subsidy(EHS) necessary?Subsidy(EHS) necessary?• Coal producing countries
⇒politically & economically stable• Price volatility
⇒not so high
little obstacle from import
There is no reason to justify EHS in improving energy security!
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Improvement of energyImprovement of energy securitysecurity
Other measures:◆◆Economy= betterEconomy= better◆◆Environment= betterEnvironment= better
Environmentally harmful subsidies Environmentally harmful subsidies shall not be justified.shall not be justified.
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ConclusionConclusion① economic losses + environmental damages
>social benefits⇒EHS could not be justified.
②in opposite caseOther measures can achieve the same social
benefits with less economic losses & environmental damages than EHS can.
Unless policymakers defeat these 2 points, EHS can not be justified.
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References part 1
• David Malin Roodman(1998) “The Natural Wealth of Nations”• IEA(1999a) “Energy Policies of IEA Countries~Japan~”• IEA(1999b)”World Energy Outlook ~Looking at energy subsidies: Getting the price
right~”• IEA(2002) World Energy Outlook 2002 ~Energy and Poverty~• IEA(2004)“Key world energy statistics2003”• IEA(2004)”Oil information 2004”• Jere R. Behrman, Harold Alderman and John Hoddinott (2004)”Hunger and
Manutrition”• Kym Anderson(2004)”Subsidies and Trade Barriers”• OECD/IEA(2002)”security of supply in electricity markets~evidence and policy issues
~”• OECD/IEA(2003)”energy policies of IEA countries~2003 Review~”• OECD(2003)”Environmentally harmful subsidies~policy issues and challenges~”• OECD/IEA(1999)”Electricity market reform~An IEA Handbook~”• OECD(1998)”Improving the environment through reducing subsidies Part Ⅰ&Ⅱ”• OECD(2001) “The DAC Guidelines Poverty Reduction”
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References part 2
• UNEP/IEA(2001)”Energy Subsidy reform and sustainable development: challenges for policymakers”
• UNEP/IEA(2002)”Reforming energy subsidies”
• 石井菜穂子(2003)“長期経済発展の実証分析” 日本経済新聞社• 黒崎卓・山形辰文(2003)“開発経済学~貧困削減へのアプローチ~”日
本評論社• 資源エネルギー庁(2004)“エネルギー白書2004年版”• 佐藤千景・島敏夫・中津孝司(2004)“エネルギー国際経済”晃洋書房• 丸谷肇(2004)“日本の雇用政策~その展開と特質~”いなほ書房• 矢島正之(2002)“エネルギーセキュリティ~理論・実践・政策”東洋経済
新報社