Promoting Renewable Energy in Mah

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Promoting Renewable Energyin Maharashtra

Department of Energy Science and Engineering

IIT Bombay

Presentation to Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission, November 10, 2009


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India-Renewable Installed Capacity trend

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008Year

In

stalledCapacity


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India-Renewable Share in Power

Renewable installed

capacity

Renewable

generation

Nuclear generation

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Yea

ShareofRenewabales(%

) Renewable InstalledCapacity

Renewable Generation

Nuclear Generation


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Renewable Energy (2008) Installed

Capacity

India Maharashtra

Wind Power 9.66 GW 1.95 GW

Small Hydro 2.0 GW 0.2 GW

Biomass Power 8.0 GW 0.35 GW

Solar PV (grid) 3 MW 0

Geothermal Power 0 0

Solar Thermal Power (CSP) 0 0

Total renewable power 13 GW 2.5 GW

Solar Water heater 1.7 GW (th) (2.4 million m2) Not known

Source: REN21 Renewables Global Status Report-2009 Update


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India Renewable installed capacity and

generationInstalled Capacity*(MW)

Estimated

Capacity factor

Estimated

Generation (GWh)

Wind 7845 14% 9621

Biomass Power 606 70% 3185

Biomass Gasifier 86 60% 527

Bagasse

Cogeneration

720 60% 3784

Small Hydro 2046 40% 7169

Waste to Energy 55 50% 241

Solar PV 2.74 20% 5

Total 11360 25%24380

*as on Jan 1, 2008


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Maharashtra Renewable installed capacity

and generationInstalled Capacity

(MW)

Estimated

Capacity factor

Estimated

Generation (GWh)

Wind 1948 14%2389

Biomass Power 95 70% 582

Bagasse

Cogeneration

262 60% 1377

Small Hydro 211 40% 924

Waste to Energy 6.1 50% 37.4

Solar PV - 20% -

Total 2522 25% 5310

*in 2009


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Solar resource Area 26.8 km x

26.8 km Nagpurdistrict

Solar insolation1800kWh/m2/year

20% capacityfactor, plantefficiency 20%

150000 MUannual generation


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Renewable Energy Issues Energy Security Energy Access

Local and Global Emissions Marginal to Mainstream Incentives for Investors/ Technology Developers Impact on cost of supply to consumers

Long term capability development Employment potential Level playing field between technologies


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Renewable Energy Policies Capital Subsidy

Tax Benefits (accelerated depreciation) Preferential Tariffs (feed-in) technology

differentiated, performance based incentives

Renewable Portfolio Standards

Renewable Energy Certificates


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Power Generation OptionsPower Generation

CentralisedGrid Connected

Cogeneration/Trigeneration

DecentralisedDistributed Generation

Isolated

Demand Side Management(Solar Water Heater, Passive

Solar)


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Renewable Energy Certificates#1 Does it provide stable signals to investors?#2 Does it promote renewable energy in the state?

#3 How do we differentiate between differenttechnologies ? Do we have multiplicationfactors based on technology type/ status?

#4 How do we prevent gaming? Can we ensure

validation? Monitoring and verification?#5 Can we extend to smaller grid connectedsystems? (e.g BIPV)

#6 Solar Water Heaters as Deemed Generation?


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Variability in REC price (Australia)

Source: http://www.greenenergytrading.com.au/how-are-recs-priced.html

50 p/kWh

250 p/kWh

#1


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Variability in REC price (Sweden)

Source:InfralineEnergy Report on REC - October 2009

90 p/kWh

150 p/kWh

#1


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Variability of ROCs in UK

300 p/kWh

400 p/kWh

#1

Source: http://www.e-roc.co.uk/trackrecord.htm


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Sample REC rates

UK AUSTRALIA SWEDEN ITALY

Price Range of REC($/MWh)

Rs/kWh

63-862.9 4.0

11 490.5 2.3

14.6 36.40.7 1.7

123 1955.7 9.0

Multiplication FactorBased on Technology

YES YES NA YES

Starting year 2002 2001 2003 2001

Penalty/Buyout $/MWh 65 27 - -

+Instantaneous values

#1

Source: http://www.e-roc.co.uk/trackrecord.htm

InfralineEnergy Report on REC - October 2009

http://www.greenenergytrading.com.au/how-are-recs-priced.html

Renewable Energy Country Profiles, Report February 2008.


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Multiplication Factor

#3

Source: Renewable Energy Country Profiles, Report February 2008.

The UK Renewable Energy Strategy July 2009


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Available RECs in Australia in 2009 for Trade

Source: https://www.rec-registry.gov.au/getSearchPublicRecHoldings.shtml

Solar (Water

Heater +PV)

62%

Landfill Gas

5%

Others

2%

Wind

26%

Bagasse + Black

Liquor

4%

Food Waste +

Wood Waste1%

Total available 10 millionRECs

#5,6


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Framework for Potential Estimation of Solar Water Heating

Systems in a Country

Country details(Area, Average Weather Data)

Locations whereweather data available

Locations where weatherdata unavailable

Selection of base city

Methodology for potentialestimation for a target area

Weather data

End use details for each sub-class

Identification of sectors and

classification within each sector

Potential of SWHS in base city

Potential of SWHS indifferent location

Identification of variablesfor a different location

Weather data

End use details

SpatialInterpolation

Potential of SWHS innearby area where

weather data is notavailable location

Aggregation for all the locations

Potential of SWHS in the country Technical potential Electricity savings

#6


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Diffusion of SWH

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Year

SolarWaterHeatingCapacity(collector

areainmillion

sq.m.)..

Actual installed (million sq. m.)Potential 140 million sq. m.Potential 60 million sq. m.Potential 200 million sq. m.Extrapolated Potential (million sq.m.)

Pote ntial = 60 m ill ion m2

Pote ntial = 140 m illion m2

Pote ntial = 200 m illion m2

Estimate d Potential i

2092 = 199 million m2

#6


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Target area

Weather data, area details

Identification and Classification of different end uses by sector (i)

Residential (1)Hospital (2) Nursing

Homes (3)Hotels

(4)Others (5)

POTENTIAL OF SWHS IN TARGET AREA

Technical Potential (m2 of collector area)

Economic Potential (m2 of collector area) Market

Potential (m2 of collector area) Energy

Savings Potential (kWh/year) Load

Shaving Potential (kWh/ hour for a monthly average day)

* Factors affecting the adoption/sizing of solar water heating systems

Sub-class (i, j)

Classification based on factors* (j)

Single end use point

Potential

Base load

for heating

Electricity/ fuel savings

Economic

viability

Price of

electricity

Investment

for SWHS

Technical

PotentialSWHS

capacity

Constraint: roof

area availability

Capacity of

SWHS

(Collector area)

Target

Auxiliaryheating

Single end usepoint

Micro simulation using

TRNSYSHot water

usage pattern

Weather

data

SIMULATION

Auxiliary heating

requirement

No. of end

use points

Technical

Potential

Economic

Potential

Economic

Constraint

Market

Potential

Constraint: market

acceptance

Potential for end use sector (i = 1)Potential

for i = 2

Potential

for i = 3

Potential

for i = 4

Potential

for i = 5

Model for Potential Estimation of Target Area#6


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Load Curve Representing EnergyRequirement for Water Heating

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24Hour of da

EnergyConsump

tion(MW)

Typical day of January

Typical day of May

Total Consumption =760 MWh/day

Total Consumption = 390 MWh/day

53%

Electricity Consumption for water heating of Pune

Total Consumption =14300 MWh/day

Total Consumption = 13900 MWh/day

Total Electricity Consumption of Pune

#6


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California enjoys 50% more sunshine

But Germany installed 10 time solar than California

Source: FiT for America

RECs (California) Vs FiT (Germany) Comparison


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Feed in tariffs Vs RECs

PriceVariability

Incentive toInvestor

Market Driven Trade acrossstates

Comments

Feed in Tariff Low High No ExchangePossible

Within StatedevelopmentDifferentiationbetweentechnologies

Renewable

EnergyCertificate

High Medium

(Uncertain)

High High Gamingposible


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Mainstreaming of renewables

#1Technology Development and Research

challenge -Cost Reduction challenge#2System Integration/ System Planning challenge

Need for better methods for potentialestimation, Impact on rest of grid

#3Sustainability- Land, Water, Materials, Emissions


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Diffusion Curves for wind energy

Year Projection by MNRE Projection by diffusioncurve

Values in the uncertainty limit of 5%

Lower limit Higher limit

2007 7000 8700 2000 24800

2012 17500 23000 5800 39600

2022 40000 42900 27400 44800

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Year

InstalledCapacity

Actual Installation

Diffusion curveUpper limit of uncertainityLower limit of uncertainity

Forecast Values by MNRE

Potential = 45000MW

a1

a2

a

am

)( PLPdt

dP

BtAe

LP

+

=

1

#2


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Wind Diffusion #2


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Source Installed

capacity

(MW)

Annual Energy

generated

(MU)

Annual average

capacity

factor (%)

Coal 2970 21230 81.6

Gas 424 1945 52.4

Hydro 2187 6290 32.8

Firm central share# 2825 17785 71.9

Wind (state + private) 3856 5270 18.6

Other renewables (solar PV,biomass and Bagasse based

cogeneration)

556 1220 25.1

Independent power projects(coal, lignite, diesel or gas

based)

1180 6360 61.5

Assistance from other regionalgrids

519 2280 50.1

Total 14517 63370 49.8

Tamil Nadu Grid Details#2


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TN Installed wind power and windenergy generated

#2


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0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

Hours

Powergenerat

edinMW January

June

September

Mean value

0

20 0

40 0

60 0

80 0

1000

1200

JAN F EB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP O CT NOV DEC

Months

Windenergygenerated(MU)

Hourly variation of

wind power

Monthly variation of

wind energy

generated

#2


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Impacts on LDC #2


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Summing up Long term capability development, employment

potential for Maharashtra Level playing field between technologies New

technologies, cofiring, hybrids, technologies at differentstages of development

Local and Global Emissions Sustainability Area, materials, water Marginal to Mainstream System integration and

planning issues, need for new methodologies Policies to foster cost effective renewable for future


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Rangan Banerjee ([email protected])

Suryanarayana Doolla ([email protected])Anuradda Ganesh ([email protected])

Thank you
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


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References Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), Annual Reports,

2001-2009 Pillai and Banerjee, Solar Energy, 81, pp. 162-172, 2006. Pillai and Banerjee, Energy, 34, pp. 970-980, 2009.

George and Banerjee, Energy Policy, 37, pp. 3693-3700, 2009. Mohit Goyal and Rakesh Jha, Renewable and Sustainable EnergyReviews 13 (2009) 13951405

Anoop Singh, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 13 (2009)643652

W. H. Rickerson, J. L. Sawin, R. C. Grace, The Electrical Journal, Vol.20, Issue 4, May 2007

InfralineEnergy Report on REC - October 2009 FiT for America A Report by Greener Dawn Corporation, USA,

September 2009. D Fouquet, T. B. Johansson, Energy Policy 36 (2008). Renewable Energy Country Profiles, Report February 2008.


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References The UK Renewable Energy Strategy July 2009 Summary maps on http://dsireusa.org National Action Plan on Climate Change, GOI, 2009

Renewable Energy Global Status Report, 2009 Update, REN21 Draft discussion paper on Development of Renewable Energy Framework

For Maharashtra for New control period (FY2010-11 to FY 2014-15) ABPSInfra, October 2009 .

http://www.greenenergytrading.com.au/how-are-recs-priced.html http://www.renewableenergyfocus.com/view/4914/australian-renewable-

energy-crisis-as-rec-price-dives/ 8-November 2009http://www.mercatoelettrico.org/En/Default.aspx

http://www.e-roc.co.uk/trackrecord.htm http://www.powercapital.eu/PowerCMS/Publications/Opinion/Banding---

Green-Certificates--Renewable-changes-in.aspx https://www.rec-registry.gov.au/getSearchPublicRecHoldings.shtml

Promoting Renewable Energy in Mah

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