Promising Pessimism Reading the Futures to Be Avoided in Biotech

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Promising pessimism: Reading the futures to be avoided in biotechAuthor(s): Richard Tutton

Source: Social Studies of Science, Vol. 41, No. 3 (June 2011), pp. 411-429Published by: Sage Publications, Ltd.Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/41301939Accessed: 28-01-2016 13:58 UTC

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2/20

SISIS

Promising pessimism:

Reading

the futures to

be

avoided in biotech

Socialtudiesf cience

41(3)

1 -429

The

uthor(s)

01

Reprints

nd

ermission:agepub.

co.uk/journalsPermissions.na

DOI: .1 77/0306312710397398

sss.sagepub.com

SAGE

Richard

Tutton

ESRC entreor

conomicnd ocial

spects

fGenomics

Cesagen),

Department

f

ociology,

ancaster

niversity,

ancaster,

K

Abstract

A

numberf

ciencend

echnology

tudies

STS)

cholars ave

uggested

hat he

erformativity

of he

forward-looking

tatement'

s n

mportant

nstitutional

lementf

ontemporary

iocapital.

This aperonsidersow, henmakingrojectionshat etupexpectationsboutheirutures,

firmslso

acknowledge

nd

detail herisk actorshat

hey

ace

n

their

perations.

n

other

words,

n ddition

o

projectingptimistic

cenarios,

irmsdvance uchmore

essimisticmages

of

utureshat

hey

ish o

avoid:

ossible

ailures,

isappointments

nd inancialosses. examine

such

essimistic

rojections

n

companyilings

o theUS Securities

nd

Exchange

ommission

(SEC)

nd

nvestigate

heir iscursiveharacter.askwhat alue uch

essimismight

old

or TS

scholarsnterested

n

he

mangle

f ciencend

apital.

sample

he EC

filings

f hree

ompanies:

deCODE

Genetics,

NAPrint enomics

nc.

nd

NitroMednc.

n

their wn

particularays,

these

rojections

xemplify

he

olatility

nd he

promise

f he ife ciences

n he 1st

entury.

My eading

hows

hat

uch

essimistic

isk actortatements

rovidenterestingommentary

n

thedynamicsfrisk nd nnovationn he ontextf ontemporaryiocapital,aisinguestions

to which

nalysts

o datehave

iven

ittlettention.

Keywords

anticipation,iocapital,

utures,

romise,ociology

f

xpectations

STS studies n the

ontemporarymangle'

f

science ndbusiness

ncreasingly

reat he

dynamics

f

hope, nticipation,

ision,

romise

nd

expectation

s centralounderstand-

ing

political conomy

Fortun,

008;

Shapin,

008;

Sunder

ajan,

2006;

Thacker, 005;

Thompson,005). Moreover,work n thesociology f expectationsas argued hat

expectations

ndother uch

creaturesf he uture

ense'

Selin,

008)

are

performative:

Corresponding

uthor:

Richard

utton,

epartment

f

ociology,

SRC entreor conomicnd ocial

spects

fGenomics

(Cesagen),

ancaster

niversity,

ancasterAI

YD,

K.

Email

[email protected]

http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsphttp://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp


3/20

4 1 Social tudies

f

Science

1

3)

that

s,

anticipation

tself onstitutesconomic

nd

epistemic

alue,

and

speculative

claims re fundamentalo the

dynamic rocesses

hat

reatenew socio-technical

et-

works

Brown

t

al.,

2000;

Hedgecoe

nd

Martin,

003).

This

paper

akes

ts

point

f

departure

rom uchwork ut s

specifically

oncerned

ith he oleof

pessimism

n

the

dynamics

f the

promissoryconomy

n

contemporaryiotechnology,

field

hat

ypi-

callyprojects

positive

uturenwhich

ew

biological nowledge

ill

transformuman

health ndbehaviour

hrough

evelopments

uch s

personalized

edicine.

In

ight

f

he inancialrisis fthe

ast

few

years, essimism

as

gained rominence

in

popular

ebates bout

conomics nd

politics.

owards he nd of

2009,

a New York

Times

rticle

uggested

hat enture

apitalists

hould e

renamedventure

essimists',

given

heir

pparent

eluctanceo

nvest

n

nnovative,

igh-risk

tart-ups

Miller, 009).

Thelong ssociation etween essimismndconservativeolitics lso continued ith

John

Derbyshire's

2009)

recent

ook,

WeAre

Doomed which

uxtaposes

Barack

Obama's

audacity

f

hope gainst

is own

perhaps

ronic)

udacity

f

hopelessness.

n

the

biotech ector s

well,

he

filing

or

hapter

1

bankruptcyy

deCODE

Genetics

n

2009

-

oncethe

most

ullish

f

genomics

ompanies

led

to some

pessimistic

ommen-

taries

uggesting

hat he

gene

revolution' as nowover

Matthews,

009).

Of

course,

very

utures

predicated

n

others o be avoided. n

parallel

with

ositive

visions nd

hopes

ffuture

dvancements,

ears nd

tenebrous

maginings

ffutureisk

are often ssociatedwith cientific

nd

technological

hange.

uch

dark

maginaries

have

provided

he

material

f

sciencefiction

ormore

han

century.

utures re con-

tested, hetheronjureds visions fUtopia rdystopia.n thispaper, consider he

significance

f

the

forward-looking

tatement'n

order o

explore

nd

understandhe

roleof

pessimism

n

contemporary

ebates

bout

iotechnology.

n

doing

o,

examine

the

relationship

etween

romising

nd

pessimistic

uturesonstructedn

company

il-

ings

o the

US Securitiesnd

Exchange

ommission

SEC).

The

discursive

haracterf

this

pessimism, argue,

should

nterest ocial

scientistswho

study

he

'mangle'

(Pickering,

995)

of science nd

capital

n

the

21st

century.

o

frame his

nalysis,

begin y considering

ow social

scientistshus

arhave

thought

boutforms f

future-

making

n

the reaof

biotechnology.

Sociologies

of

futures,

promises

and

expectations

In

Cynthia

elin's

2008)

words,

those

reaturesfthe

futureense'-

promise,xpecta-

tion,

peculation,

ision,

ope,

prophecy

nd

anticipation

have

become he

ubject

f

analysis

cross he ield f

STS

in

the

ast

wodecades.

uch

analysis

orrows

pon

but

also

diverges

rom arlier ork

uch s

RobertMerton's

1948)

on

self-fulfilling

rophe-

cies.

The

sociology

f

expectations'

hat

merged

n

Europe

n

the ate 1990s

has had

growing

nfluence n

studiesof

scientific,

echnological

nd economic

nnovation

(Borup

t

l.,

2006;

Brown t

l.,

2000).

Studies f

the ife ciences

ave

nvestigated

he

role of expectationsn xenotransplantationBrownand Michael,2003), stem cell

research

Martin

t

al.,

2008),

regenerative

edicine

Wainwright

t

al.,

2008),

biobank-

ing

Tutton, 007),

pharmacogenetics

Hedgecoe

and

Martin,

003),

pharmaceuticals

(Williams

t

al.,

2008)

and

anti-ageing

edicine

Mykytyn,

010).

The

sociology

f

expectations

pproach

differs

rom he

realist

orientationf economic

models of



4/20

Tutton 4 1

expectations

hat

ought

o

distinguish

etween ctors'

xpectations

f hefuturendthe

actual

prospects

f an

innovative

rogrammewith

he

gap

between hem

eing

con-

signed

o

hype').

The

sociology

f

expectations

akes he

position

hat t

s

impossible

to

step

utside f

xpectations

odeterminehe

real' valueof

omenew nd

yet

ntested

technology. ccordingly,

e shouldunderstand

xpectations

o be first nd

foremost

' constitutive r

performative

n

attracting

he nterestf

necessary

llies

various

actors

n

nnovation

etworks,nvestors,

egulatory

ctors,

sers nd o

on)

and

n

defin-

ing

roles nd

n

building

mutuallyinding bligations

nd

agendas'

Borup

t

al.,

2006:

289).

Expectations

an thereforee

understoods

'wishful nactments'

f

rather

han

'wishful

hinking'

bout)

desired

utures,

hich

ave vital elational

uality,

rokering

relationships

etween ctors o that

xpectations

an become

mutually

hared

uides

or

action.As Hedgecoeand Martin2003: 329) observe,understandingheformation,

mobilizationnd

hape

fthese

xpectations

r visions

s therefore

entral

o the nal-

ysis

of an

emerging

iotechnology'.

Expectation

s not he

nly oncept

f future

maginings

n social studies

fbiotech-

nology

r biomedicine. elated

notions f

promise

r the

promissory

avebeen

devel-

oped,

mainly

utnot

xclusively

y

North

merican

cholars

Fortun,

001,

2005,

2008;

Sunder

Rajan,

2006;

Thompson,

005).

Charis

Thompson

ses

the term

promissory

capital'

o describe he biomedical

modeof

reproduction'

hrough

hich

odily

issues

and

organs

btain alue

n

ystems

f

xchange

or heir

otential

ses. She

suggests

hat

capital

hould e understood

ess

n

terms

f lassic

notions f

ccumulation

n

ndustrial

capitalismndmore s 'constitutivelyromissory'ecausetheir alue unfolds ver

time'

Thompson,

005

258).

Sunder

ajan

2006:

1

6) develops

he dea

of

biocapital'

to

nvestigate

he

ontemporary

implosion'

f cience

nd

capitalism

hat e

calls,

using

Joseph

umit's

2003)

expression,

venture

cience'

hat s

engaged

n

the

imultaneous

production

f

scientificact nd

capitalistic

alue.

Venturecience

s

promissory,

isky

and

defined

y

vision nd

hype.

To

generate

alue

n thename

of

realizing promised

future,

enturecience

ellsthat

ision ven

f

as

is often he

ase

-

this

s nevermate-

rialized s

sold.The notion f

promise

s also

taken

p

by

Michael

Fortun

2001,

2005,

2008)

nhis

tudy

fdeCODE

Genetics nd

he

ontroversy

hat

urrounded

he celandic

Health ector atabase decade go.Apromise, eobserves,ends o be ascribed oan

utterancef he

orm

I

promise',

binding

contract'bout

future ade

by

one

person

to another.

n

practice,

owever,

romises

re

volatile nd

diffuse,

panning

ifferent

spaces,

different

emporalities

nd

different

ntities.

ot

only

an

an individual

make

promise

o a

recipient,

he or

he

also

can declare

hat

thing

s

promising.

ortun

on-

cludesthat:

promising

annot e

reduced

o

empty

ype,

r

to a formal

ontract,

ut

occupies

he

uncertain,

ifficult

pace

n between'

Fortun,

005:

158).

North

merican

scholars ave

emphasizedpromise'

ather

han

expectation'

s the

key oncept

n their

work n the

dynamics

f

future-making.

he different

nalytical urchase

rovided

y

these

oncepts

s

beyond

he

cope

of the

present aper,

ut

s the

ubject

f

ongoing

work n theroleof variousmaginariesn STS scholarshipnscience, echnologynd

capital

McNeil

et

al.,

2010).

Investors,

cientistsr

politicians

re

farfrom he

only ypes

f

people

engaged

n

work f

future-making;

s a

number f authors

ave

shown,

atients

ith

ncurable

r

chronic

diseases and theirrelatives

lso

mobilize

around

hopes

(and

sometimes



5/20

4

1 Social tudies

f

Science

1(3)

promises)

f future

nwhich ew

reatmentsnd ures

will

be available

Epstein,

996;

Gibbon, 007; Novas, 006;Rapp, 000).

CarlosNovas

2006)

framesuch ituationsn

terms fthe

political

conomy

f

hope'.

Disease

advocacy

rganizations

ork o trans-

late

ndividual

xperiences

f disease nto

ollective,

olitical rojects

hat

an,

when

successful,

re)shape

cientificesearch

riorities

nd

practices,

irect he llocation f

public

esources,

nd

gainrepresentation

n

policy-making

r

advisory

odies.

Hopes

-

like

expectations

nd

promises

are relational:

hey

ind

people together

n

situations

that re

often

marked

y

desperation

nd enrol hem n

aspirations

or future

hat

s

open

ndnot nevitable.

The

affective imensions f

futurity

nvoked

y

hope

are also

explored y

Adams

et al.

(2009)

with heir otion f

anticipation.

hat

hey

all the

breathless

uturology'

of biotech nvolves oth politics faffect elated o thehopesanddesires fpeople

seeking

linical ures nd

speculative

pistemologies

bout

new

knowledge

nd tech-

nologies. hey

laim hat

anticipation

as become

common,

ived ffect-statef

daily

life,

haping egimes

f

self,

health nd

spirituality'Adams

et

al.,

2009:

247);

it has

become

hegemonic

ormationhat xtendsnto

many

renas f ocial ife.

Anticipation

hasbecome n

episteme

haracterized

y

everal orms f

moral

esponsibility:

o antici-

pate,

e informed

bout

nd stand

eady

or he

future(s);

o make hoices

boutdiver-

gent

ourses

f action n

theface of

mperfectnowledge;

o

secure hebest

possible

futuresor

neself;

nd to

anticipate

ew domains n

which,

or

xample,

o

leverage

valuefrom

xisting

esources.

Accountability,

disappointment

and

pessimism

Accountability

s

a

major

heme hat uns

hrough

ll of

the ocial studies f

expecta-

tions,

romises,

isions,

ope

nd

nticipation

iscussed

bove.

f

we cannot

tep

utside

the

conceptions

nd

practices

we

study,

ow do we

hold

expectations

nd

promises

articulated

y

scientists

nd others o account? ow

do we decide

whetherhe

hopes

of

advocacy rganizations

cting

n

thename f

the

erminally

ll

for futureure re

real-

isticor not?Can we ourselves

nticipate

hether r not

particular

nticipation

f a

futures warranted?sBorup t al. (2006) acknowledge,he rticulationf anexpecta-

tion

does

not

utomatically

roduce

ccountability.

owever,

t

can

prompt

hallenges

from

thers,

hocall for

ccountability.

ome

social scientists

ave

themselvesnsisted

on such

ccountability,

n

critical tudies fwhat

hey

ee

as the

unrealistic

xpectations

promotedy

specific

ctors n

the nnovation

rocess

whomake

grand

laims bout he

revolutionary

mpact

f

biotechnology

Hopkins

t

al., 2007;

Nightingale

nd

Martin,

2004).

Nightingale

nd Martin

2004:

568),

for

nstance,

rgue

hat ome

government

and

ndustrygents

ave

exaggerated

he

peed

of

nnovation

n

biotechnology,eading

'to

poor

nvestment

ecisions,

misplaced ope,

nddistorted

riorities'.

hesecritics o

not

tep

outside he

anticipatoryegimes'

f

biotechnology

ut

nstead

perate

within

themnan effortoretunehe xpectationst

play

nrelation o

emerging

aterialities.

What

s

the

purpose

f these

ttempts

o hold o

account he

ways

n

which uturesre

presented

n

thehere nd now? s itto

avoid

disappointment

nd what

Nightingale

nd

Martin

all

misplaced ope'?



6/20

Tutton

4

1

I

ask these

uestions

ecause t

would eem hat

isappointment,

ailure

o

ive

up

to

expectations

nd

to fulfil

romises,

nd

the

possibility

hat

hopes

will

remain nreal-

ized

but

not

necessarily ashed)

hould

lways

be

anticipated.

s

Borup

t al.

(2006:

295)

acknowledge,

e should

lways

expect

hat he

future

ill

underperform.

his

raises number f ssues:

first,

nd this

s where he

ociology

f

expectations

eparts

from hework f RobertMerton

1948)

on

self-fulfillingrophecies,

t s not he

ase,

as Pollock nd Williams

2010: 5)

observe,

hat

any

vision,

f

handled nd

communi-

cated

byenough

eliable

ctors,

ould

become rue'.

The

challenge

o

scholars,

ollock

andWilliams

ightly

ote,

s to

understand

hy

ome

expectations

aterialize

nd

oth-

ers do not an

understanding

hat

would benefit

rom

onsidering

ifferentorms

f

performativity

see

for

xample,

Mackenzie

2006)

and Callon

1998)).

It also

shows

that isappointments integralo thewaythat xpectations ork n science nd tech-

nology, rompting

he

uestion

fhow

disappointments

r

past

failures re

negotiated,

accounted or nd

managed

n

ways

that an

sometimes

hape

new

cycles

of

expecta-

tions

Arribas-Ayllon

t

al.,

2010).

As

Borup

t al.

2006:

290)

note,

whilefailure

omes

at

a

price

n lost

nvestment,

nergy

nd

time,

in

practice

t remains

ifficulto see

whether this ime our

high xpectations

ight

e

ustifiably

arranted'.

n

some

areas

of sociotechnical

ife,

owever,

uch s warfare

r efforts

o

preserve

he

natural

environment',

essimism

bout the future

as been

pronounced.

n

Technology

Pessimism nd Postmodernism

Leo Marx

rgues

hat:

TheWest's ominanteliefystemurnedn the deaoftechnicalnnovations a primary

agent

f

progress

..

[however]

ore nd

more

eople

n he advanced'

ocieties

ave ad

o

considerhe

ossibility

hathe

rogressive

genda,

ithts

romise

f

imitless

rowth

nd

continuing

mprovement

n

he onditions

f ife or

veryone,

as

not

een,

nd

erhaps

ever

willbe realised. he

sudden

ashing

f

these

opes

urely

ccounts

ormuch

f

today's

widespreadechnologicalessimism.

Marx, 994:13)

For

Marx,

his

essimism rimarily

entres

oton advances

n

the

biomedical

ife ci-

encesbut n the

echnologies

fwar nd

on concerns

bout nvironmental

egradation.

With he

prospect

f

peak

oil,

widespread

eforestation,

estruction

f animal

pecies,

pollutionfwater ourses, rought,ndrising arbon missionseading o a forecasted

futuref

rising emperatures

ndclimatic

olatility,

uch

pessimism

s

hardly urprising.

Yet

n

the ace f

uch

cenarios,

ld

promises

anbe

revived,

uch s

nuclear

ower,

nd

newones

developed,

uch s carbon

apture,

ith he im

of

changing redicted

utures.

However,

t s

beyond

he

cope

of

this

aper

o take

n thedifferent

romissory

nd

pes-

simistic

ynamics

t work

n such

divergent

reas

of science

nd

technology.

With eference

o the ontext f the

biomedical

ife

ciences,

his

aper

s concerned

with

ow

futures

re made

n

the

present

nd the

elationship

etween

romise

nd

pes-

simism

n

this

uture-making.

n

deal ite

for his

nalysis

s the

nstitutional

ramework

of the

forward-looking

tatement',

particularegulatory

nstrument

f

corporate

ov-

ernancentheUS that oth nables

nscriptions

ffuturesnd

governs

hose

nscriptions

according

ocertain ules fdiscourse.

cholars

uch s Sunder

ajan

2006)

and

Shapin

(2008)

have identifiedhisframework

s

being

n

important

promissory'

lement

n

contemporaryiocapital.

n

what

follows,

outline

he

history

f how this

framework



7/20

4 1

Social tudies

f

Science

1

3)

came

obe established

ntheUS and

discuss ome f ts alient eatures

efore

onsidering

in moredetail

how,

n this

framework,essimism lays

an

importantart

n

making

possible

he

nscription

f

promissory

utures.

Safe

harbours,

speculation

and

disclosure

Along

with hose

f

companies perating

n

other

ectors,

orward-looking

tatements

n

press

eleases,

ublic

peeches,

ther

romotional

aterialsnd

registration

ocuments

made

by genomics

nd

biotechnology

irms

egistered

iththe US Securities

nd

Exchange

ommission

re

egally rotected.

uch

protection

s

granted y

thePrivate

Securities

itigation

eform ct

passedby

theUS

Congress

n 1995

Pub.

L.

104-67,

109 Stat. 37),which oughtopreventabusive' itigationgainst irmsy nvestorsr

their

epresentatives

n

response

o losses due to

falling

hare

prices

Johnson

t

al.,

2001).

The 1995 Act

marked

significant

eparture

or he

SEC,

whichwas

founded

shortly

fter heWall

Street rash f 1929torestorenvestoronfidence

ith

egulations

that

mphasized

onest ndwhat

oday

wouldbe called

transparent'

ommunications

y

firms

Securities

nd

Exchange

ommission,

010).

Given

ts

view that he

Crash

was

caused

by heady peculation

nd

easy

credit,

he SEC

prohibited

irms rom

ssuing

forward-looking

tatementsecause

uch

tatements

ere

deemed

nreliables sources

of

unfounded

peculation

hat ould

bring

bout nother arketrash

Fortun,008).

In

1979,

theSEC

revisitedhe ssue and

originated

he

concept

f the safe harbour'

or

firmso makeforward-lookingtatementshat ad a 'reasonable asis' andwere rticu-

lated

n

good

faith'

Johnson

t

al.,

2001).

However,

without

egal protection

gainst

possible

itigation,ompanies ppeared

eluctant

o

provide rospective

nformation

such

s forecastsf

future

arnings.

n

1991,

theUS

Congress eganworking

n this

matternd the

egislation

ook

hape

over

henext

years.

he bill

was

passed

by

the

House of

Representatives

nd the

enate,

nd

although

resident

ill

Clinton

etoed

t,

Congress

verrode

is veto

n

late December1995

Spiess

and

Tkac,

1997).

The Act

therefore

as controversialnddebate

mong

cademics nbusiness nd aw schools as

continuedbout ts

mplications

or

nvestors,

ompanies

nd

public

onfidence

Perino,

2003;

Pritchard

nd

Sale,

2005).

TheAct

egally

rotects

ompanies

o makecertain orward-lookingtatementsin

either

ritten

r

spoken

orm)

y providing statutory

safe

harbour',

s

long

s such

statements eet

wocriteria:

irst,

hat

hey

re

clearly

dentified

s

'forward-looking',

and,

econd,

hat

hey

re

accompanied y

meaningful autionaryanguage dentify-

ing important

actors hat ould cause

actualresults o differ rom hose

projected'

(Johnson

t

l.,

2001).

Therefore,

ompanies

se a

particular

ocabulary

o

highlight

hat

their

ress

releases ontain

forward-looking

tatements'.

or

example, press

release

issued

y

deCODE Geneticsnc.

n 2009

noted hat:

These tatements

efero futurevents r ourfuture

inancial

erformance.

n

some

ases,

forward-lookingtatementsanbe dentifiedy erminologyuch s may',should',could',

'expect',plan',

anticipate',

believe',estimate',

predict',

intend',

potential',

r continue'

or the

negative

f such ermsr other

omparableerminology.

hese tatementsre

only

expectations.1



8/20


9/20

4 1

Social

tudies

f

Science

1(3)

'Subject

o

uncertainty',

wecannot

redict',may

ave

dverse

ffect',

wecannot

e

certain',

'subject

o

he isks f

failure',

thereanbe no

assurance',

our tock

rice

may

ecline',

it

will eyears,f ver',we could ail'.

Considerableabourmust

o

into

writing

uch

pessimistic'

exts-at

eastas much s

goes

into

crafting

bullient

ress

releases.

Consequently,pecialist

ompanies

have

made

promises

o service irms

ndtheir

egal

eams o

speed

up

the

rocess

f

complet-

ing

documentsnd

ensuring

ompliance.

ne ofthese

ompanies,ntelligize

nc. based

in

New

York,

ives

he

following itch:

In

today's

hallenging

egulatory

limate,

he

ost nd

complexity

f

preparingarge

nd

unwieldyocumentsor ECfilingsrising. hent's ime owriterupdate SECforms,

thebest

ractice

s to draw rom

revious

ocumentsnd

passages

s

reference

oints

o

properly

nd

arefully

isclose

nformationo

nvestorsnd

egulators.3

Shapin's

ommentsbout

oilerplating

re

borne ut

by

he

way

hat

ntelligizeperates:

ithas

developed

what tcalls a

'precedent

heck

pplication',

hich

nalyses

housands

ofSEC

10-Kformsnd dentifies

hemost

ommonly

sedrisk

actors.or

xample,

he

top

five isk

actors ound

n

forms

iled ver

6-month

eriod

n

2009

are: failure o

compete uccessfully

73%);

general

conomic

onditions

57%);

dependence

n

man-

agement

eam

47%);

difficulty

f

raising

apital

46%);

and

potential

hare

rice

ola-

tility43%). On the basis of suchanalysis,ntelligizeeeksto identify hat t calls

'markettandards'owhich irms

hould onform

hen

isclosing

o

nvestorsnd

regu-

lators he isk actors

hey

ace

n

their

markets.

dopting

hese

tandards

ims o ensure

fast

nd

uncomplicated

ompliance

ith

heSEC.

Through

oilerplating

nd

standardi-

zation,

he rticulationf risk

herefore

ecomes

generic

ather

han

ingular

uality:

one that hefirm

hareswith ts

ompetitors.

One effectfthe

Private ecurities

itigation

ct s that

he ailure o fulfil

romises

orto

meet nvestors'

xpectations

bout tock

erformance

r

product

evelopment

oes

not

utomatically

ecome lie or

deliberate

isrepresentation.

ccording

o

the

egisla-

tion, laintiffs

eed o

prove

hat he hief

xecutivefficerf he ompanypprovedhe

forward-looking

tatement hile

knowing

t to

be

false

(Spiess

and

Tkac,

1997).

Moreover,

failure o nclude

he

articular

actor

hat

ltimately

ausesthe

rojection

o

be

in

error oes not

preclude

hat

tatementrom

eing rotected

y

the

afeharbours

long

s the actorshat re

dentifiedre

relevanto

the

rojection'

Johnson

t

al.,

2001

301).4

Consequently,

ome

nalysts

eared hat he

Actwould

foster

ver-optimistic

ore-

casts nd

projections,

r,worse,

culture

f

lying'.

ButJohnsont

al.

2001 298)

claim

that heres no

evidence hat

orecastsssued

fter he

Act's

passage

remore

ptimisti-

cally

biased

han hose

ssued

reviously'.

The

extentowhich hese isk

actor

tatements

irculate

ublicly

nd ffect

ndividu-

als decision-makingndudgementsbout he xpectationsffirmsnwhich heymight

invest heir

apital

s

somewhat

nclear. he

readership

f these

exts

may

xtend rom

the taff

tthe

EC,

to

professional

nvestment

anagers esponsible

or

ecommending

or

nvesting

tock n behalf f

trust r

pension

unds,

o

ordinary

nvestors

anting

o

buy

a

stake

n

a listed

ompany

ut

aware of

theneed for

due

diligence.

n

practice,



10/20

Tutton

4 1

however,

t s not lear hat uch

publics ctually

ead uch tatements

espite

he

xhor-

tations f nvestor ebsites

uch s

Investopediacf.Fortun,008).5

How should social

cientistnterested

nthe

ynamics

f

cience,

apital

ndfutures

understandhe

production

f these

risk factor

tatements?

he Private

Securities

Litigation

ct and

tsestablishment

f the

forward-looking

tatement'

s a

key

ite

of

anticipatoryractice

n

the

egalunderpinning

f

biocapital.

onsequently,

suggest

hat

we should hink

bout hese

exts ess

in

terms

f

accountability

nd

more

n

terms

f

how,

ollowing

dams t al.

(2009),

they

orm

art

f

an

anticipatory

egime'

n which

'story

tock'

ompanies,

uch as

thosedescribed

y

Sunder

Rajan

(2006)

and Fortun

(2008),

areforced o tackback

ndforth

etween

essimistic

nd

optimistic

orecasts

f

equally

onditional

utures.o see

these tatements

s

otherwise

erving

o hold

firmso

account or heir laims bout hefuture ouldbe to nvoke herealistmodeoftesting

expectations

gainst

underlying

undamentals'.

his

s

the

view

taken

y

theSEC and

other ctors

n this rena

when

they peak

about

these

texts s

'disclosures'

f

risk

factors.

owever,

uch texts

are

no more nd

no less

speculative

han

he

optimistic

forward-looking

tatements

f

press

releases ...

There's

no reason

to allow

oneself

to be taken

n

by speculative

enomic essimism

han

y

ts cheerier

ibling'

Fortun,

2008:

201).6

It

appears

hat

hedraftersf

the

egislation

id not

ntend o enforce

essimism

n

order

o hold

firms ccountable

or heebullient

utures

hey roject

o attract

nvest-

ment nd

boost heir tock

alue.

nstead,

essimism

as

positioned

o enable

promises:

companies

ouldassert heir

romissory

uturesnlyby promisingo be pessimistic.

Unlike utures

hat rearticulated

n other ites

f

anticipation,

uch s the

press

elease,

pessimistic

utures

magined

n

companies'

EC

filings

re not

performative:

he

firms

do not nact

hese

utures;

nstead,

hrough

he

safe

harbour'

rovisions

fthe

Act,

hey

anticipate

lternative

utures

hey

wish

o avoid.

Beyond erving

heir

egulatory

unction,

hat

kindof

value do these

tatements

have

for heSTS

analyst,

nd

whatuses

can

analysts

makeof

them?

hese statements

delineate utures

hat re

hoped

o

be

unrealized,

utures

hat

re

contingent

nd

uncer-

tain,

nd are

precisely

ot nvisioned

s

performative.

ocial

scientists

enerally

ave

notbeen interestednthesekinds f futures. ikeFortun, owever, ivesa striking

example

fhow

social cientist

an

use such

isk actor

tatements.

e

discusses

ow

he

drew

n such tatements

o

help

nform

ublic

ebate,

s

they rovided

ounter-narratives

to the

argely

bullient nd

celebratory

overage

f

deCODE

Genetics

n

the

celandic

press.

ortun ecounts

hat t a

public

meeting

n

Reykjavik

n

2000,

he

displayed

n an

overhead

rojector

he

ub-headings

rom he

isk

actors

ection

fdeCODE

Genetics'

S-l

documentation,

hichwas

issuedwhen

t went

public.

n that

ection,

eCODE

s

lawyers

etailed ll

the

hings

hat ould

go

wrong

with

he

firm.

his s a

noteworthy

and

probably

xceptional

ublic

use

of such

risknarratives

o

hold a

firm ccountable

for

ts

promises.

Moreover,ortun lso suggestshat hese tatementsstakeouta farmore omplex

and dense

social, scientific,

olitical,

egal

and

ethical

errain

f

genomics'

Fortun,

2008:

201).

On closer

nspection,

hile

boilerplating

s

clearly mportant

o

how this

institutionalized

essimism

s enacted

within

mode f

regulatory

ompliance,

suggest

that

hese exts

rovide

ome

nteresting

nd

perhaps

nexpected

ommentary

n the



11/20

420 Social tudies

f

Science

1

3)

dynamics

f risk nd innovation

n

thecontext f

contemporaryiocapital.

o follow

through

n this

oint,

henext ection

rovides reading

fthe isk actor

tatements

f

three otable nd controversial

ompanies

nthe

genomics

nd

pharmaceutical

ectors

and

explores

hevalue

of such

pessimistic

tatementsor

social science

nalysis.

These statements

are

just expectations9:

Reading

the forward-

looking

statements

The

filings

e shall xamineweremade

by

deCODE

Genetics,

NAPrint

enomicsnc

and

NitroMednc.7 chose

these

ompanies

ecause

they

xemplify

he

volatility

nd

the

promise

f commercialization

n

the ife

ciences,

nd also

have examined heir

particularctivitiesnbiobanking,ersonal enomicsndrace-basedmedicinenprevi-

ous work

Tutton,

007;

Tutton t

al.,

2008).

It

shouldbe noted

hat

n

each of these

companies,

nvestorsnd

employees

ost

money

nd

ivelihoods hen he

alueof tock

in

eachof hese

ompanies ollapsed,

esulting

n

ay-offs

s the irms ere

ither

ought

outor restructured.

The disclosures f these hree

ompanies

rticulate

series f

nterconnectedncer-

tainties,

hich nclude: he

validity

r otherwise f

their cientific

deas and

assump-

tions;

heir

bility

o

develop

products

nd the ikelihood f

those

productsmaking

profit;

he ffect f

changes

n

governmentegulation

n their

bility

o sell and

profit

from heir

roducts;

he

force

f

public pinion

n

legislation

nd

regulations

hat

may

disadvantagehe ompaniesr forcehem ochange hewaythathey perate;ndtheir

ability

o establishmarketsor

heir

roducts.

n

what

ollows,

discusshow

each

of

the

three

ompanies

eal with uch

risks. he

filings

made

by

DNA

PrintGenomics

tand

outbecauseofthedifferent

tyle

n

which

hey

re

written.

DeCODE Genetics nc.

I

suspect

hat eCODE

Genetics nc.

hardly

eeds

any

ntroduction.ounded

n

1996

and

registered

n

the tate f

Delaware,

his irm

as

created o sell the

genetic,

medical

and

genealogical

nformationn theentire

opulation

f

celand s 'sources f

future

medicines'McKie, 1997:14).Theplandeveloped ydeCODE Geneticswith he up-

port

f

the celandic

arliament as to establish

Health ector

atabase: n

electronic

patient

ecord

ystem

hat

wouldbe combined

ith

genealogical

atabase

which

was

already

n

the

ublic

omain)

nd newDNA

database. eCODE

Genetics ecame

on-

troversial,

oth

or

he

way

that t

proceeded

ith n

opt-out

ather

han n

opt-in gree-

mentwith

ubjects

n

theHealth ector

Database

which

ed

ultimately

o

the celand

Supreme

ourt's ecision o striketdown

s

unlawful)

nd

for ow he

ale

of ts

hares

was handled

uring

he otcom

ubble

n

2000. n

common ith

ther

igh-risk

entures

listed n the

NASDAQ,

its

hare aluefell

harply

s the

market

ollapsed.

espite

hav-

ing

never

ctually

onstructed

heHealth

ector

atabase,

eCODE did

establish

large

biobank fmore han140,000 amples nd n2007branched ut nto henascent er-

sonal

genomics

market ith

product

alled deCODE

Me.

In

2009,

aftermonths f

speculation

bout ts

financial

ealth,

eCODE

filedfor

bankruptcy

nd,

following

restructuring,

as re-launched

s a

private

ompany

n

celand,

wned

by

a number f

investment

rganizations.



12/20

Tutton

42 1

To

begin

with,

eCODE

acknowledges

he

ncertainndcontested ature

f he asic

science hat

nderpins

heresearch nd

development

n which thas been

engaged.

n a

2008

filing,

t sserted:

The

products

e

hope

o

develop

.. arebased

n he

ssumption

hatnformation

bout

enes

may

elp

cientistsobetternderstand

omplex

isease

rocesses.

cientists

enerally

ave

limited

nderstanding

f therole

of

genes

n

diseases,

nd

few

products

ased

on

gene

discoveriesave een

eveloped

...

If

our

ssumption

bout

he ole f

genes

n

the isease

process

s

wrong,

ur

ene

iscovery

rograms

ay

ot

esult

n

products.

deCODE

Genetics

Inc.,

008)

Another

ignificant

isk

s that he

roducts

or future

roducts

that eCODE

andthe

other

ompanies eveloped

might

ot

ctually

work, r won'tbe

approved,

might ot

compete

with hose ftheir

ivals,

r

might

ot ell

n

sufficient

uantities

o

ustify

he

research hatwent

nto

developing

hem.On

its

corporate

ebsite

n

2009,

deCODE

Genetics escribed

tself s

'developing

rugs

nd

DNA-based

tests o

improve

he

treatment,

iagnosis

nd

prevention

f common

iseases

deCODE

is

delivering

n

the

romise

fthenew

genetics'.

n

an SEC

filing

more

ontingent

ccount

was

given

about ts

genes

to

drugs

ipeline':

We

expect

hat t

will be

years,

f

ever,

efore

we

will

recognize ignificant

evenue

rom he

development

f

therapeutic

r

diagnostic

products.'8

his is all the

more

interesting

ince a number

f commentaries

hat

appearednthewake of deCODE s 2009 filing orChapter 1bankruptcyaderefer-

enceto howthe

therwise

ery

ood

science

produced

y

deCode

s researchers

id not

lend tself o

commercialization.

NitroMed

nc.

NitroMed

nc.,

best

known or ts

controversial

rug

BiDil,

was a

small

pharmaceutical

company

stablished

n

Cambridge,

A,

USA.

In

1999,

NitroMed

cquired

he ntel-

lectual

roperty

ights

o

BiDil,

a

drug

hat ts

original

wners

were

recasting referen-

tially

o benefit

frican-American

atients

with

congestive

eartfailure.

n

2000,

NitroMediled patentpplicationstablishingts laim,whichwas then rantedythe

US Patent

ndTrademark

ffice

PTO)

in

2003

(Kahn,

004).

In

order

o

gain pproval

to market he

drug,

NitroMed

ponsored

clinical

trial alled

A-HeFT

(the

African

American eart

ailure

rial)

hat

was halted

arly

n 2004 because

of

ts lear

fficacy

in

treating

his isease

n ts rial

opulation

f

self-identified)

frican-

mericans.9

he

results

ere

published

n theNew

England

Journal

f

Medicine

andthe

Food and

Drug

Administration

FDA) granted pproval

n June 005.

Despite

successfully

chieving

this

regulatorypproval,

he

company

was soon

subjected

o intense

riticism

n

a

numberf

fronts,

uch s the

esign

ndconduct

f ts

linical rial

Kahn,

008)

and

the

claim

hat twas

exploiting

ntrenched

ealth

isparities

mongst

acial/ethnic

roups

n

theUS for tsowncommercialain Boche,2004; Ellisonetal., 2008).Within few

years

f BiDil

being pproved,

owever,

he

ompany

ound hat

he ize

of the

market

for his

rug

was smaller han

xpected.

ayoffs

nsued,

nd

the

firm

topped

ctively

marketing

iDil. In

early

009,

the

firmwas

bought

ut

by

Deerfield

Management,

leading

ealthcare

nvestor

ompany

n

theUS.



13/20

422

Social tudies

f

Science

1

3)

As with eCODE

Genetics,

itroMed lso noted

n

tsNovember 004

filing

bout

the

cience hat

nderpinned

tsbusiness hat ts

pplication

f nitric xide

technology

had

yet

to be

proven

n humans. ince this

filing rovided

he scientific asis

of

NitroMed's

roduct ipeline,

here as the

danger

hat

ompany

ouldnot

uccessfully

develop

ndmarketts

products.

The uncertainties

nd

contingencies

f

drugdevelopment

ere

given engthy

reat-

ment

n

this

iling.

ne

passage

etout he

many roblems

hat he

ompany

might

ace

when

eeking

o

bring drug

o market: ifficultiesith

btainingegulatorypproval

to start clinical

rial;

he

possibility

f

getting

nfavourable

esults;

rials

eing

us-

pended

ecause of risks

o

participants;

nd,

finally,

he

potential

bandonment

f

the

entire

rocess:

Adverse

r nconclusivelinical rial esults

oncerningny

f our

drug

andidates

ould

require

s toconduct

dditional

linical

rials,

esult

n

ncreasedosts nd

ignificantlyelay

the

iling

or

marketingpproval

or hose

rug

andidatesith he DA

or esult

n

filing

or

a narrowerndication

han

was

originallyought

r result

n

a decision o discontinue

development

f hose

rug

andidates.

NitroMed004)

Regulation

s

both a

necessary

nd uncertain

rocess

forbiotech

companies,

nd

engagement

ith

egulatory

gencies

s

at theforefrontf

company

isk

perceptions.

NitroMed's

xperience

ithBiDil is

particularlynteresting

or ur

purposes,

ince t

was one ofthemost ontroversialpisodes nthat irm's istory. itroMed tated hat

itsentire usiness

lan depended

n

securing

DA

approval:

We

re

eavily

ependent

n

btaining

egulatorypproval

or

nd

uccessfullyommercializing

BiDil,

urmostdvanced

rug

andidate...

If

wefail o chieve

egulatory

pproval

r

market

acceptance

f

BiDil,

ur ear-term

bility

o

generateroduct

evenue,

ur

eputation

nd ur

ability

oraise dditional

apital

ill e

materially

mpaired,

nd he alue f n nvestment

n

our tock

ill

ecline.

NitroMed,

004)

Weighing p

the

otential

utcome f ts

pplication,

he

filing cknowledged

hat:

To

our

knowledge,

he DA hasnever

pproveddrug roduct

or se

n

particular

thnic

population.

heFDA's

receptiveness

o

drugs

hat re

pproved

ndmarketed

n the asis

ofdifferent

thnicity-based

herapeutic

utcomess

untestednd

may

e

adversely

ffected

by ontrary

cientificr

public

ealth vidence r

political

r

egal

factors.or

xample,

scientific

videnceould

merge

hat

uggests

hat here

s no

physiological

asis o

upport

pharmaceuticalevelopment

f

drugs

ased

pon thnicity.

oreover,

thers

ay

xpress

he

view hat

thnicity

s

only

sociologicaloncept

nd,

ccordingly,

heresnot

valid asis

or

the ommercializationfmedicinesased n

thnicity.

hese

actorsr thers could

revent

us from

btaining

DA

approval

fBiDil.

NitroMed,004)

The filing hereforeresentsheregulations being hapedbydiverse ctorswithin

and

beyond

cience.NitroMed's ccount f

the

hen

ncertainuturef ts

pplication

highlights

echnical oncerns: t

suggests

hat cientific vidence ould

emerge

hat

would refute he

company's

laim of

a

pathophysiological

ifference ith

espect

o

heart iseasebetween frican-

mericans nd other

acial/ethnic

roups, ndermining



14/20

Tutton

423

the ationale or

pproving

iDil

as a

drug rescribed

orAfrican-mericans

recalling

that he

drug

ad

already

ailed

n

the 1990stests o

ive

up

to ts

promise

or he

ntire

population). nterestingly,

t the time there lso was

(and

there till

remains)

no

evidence

or

his

athophysiological

ifference. hen he

tatementlludes

o

political

and

egal

factors',

t also

highlights

hat here re

others'who advance

heview that

ethnicity

s

only sociological oncept'

an

oblique

reference

o theheated

ebate

n

academic

ournals

nd

the

popular

ress

bout

BiDil

(Anonymous,

005;

Caulfield nd

Harry,

008).

Furthermore,

uch concerns boutmarket

cceptance

ontinue ven

after

pproval.

NitroMed bserved hat:

Key participantsn theU.S. pharmaceuticalarketplace,uch s physicians,ayorsnd

patients,

ay

ot

ccept product

ntendedo

mprove

herapeutic

esultsased

n

ethnicity.

As a

result,

t

may

e

more ifficultor s to onvince

hemedical

ommunity

nd

hird-party

payors

nd

atients

o

ccept

nd seour

roducts.

ur

usiness

s

substantially

ependent

n

market

cceptance

f

BiDil.

NitroMed,

004)

Clearly,

here re

many

ayers

o this

notion f market

cceptance'.

o achieve

market

acceptance

meansnot

only eaching

utto

individual

onsumers,

ut lso

to the

ctors

thatmediate

ransactions

n

the

pharmaceutical

arket,

uch as doctors

who have

the

power

o

prescribe

nd

thehealthcare

nsurers ho authorize

he

xpenditure

n the

pre-

scriptionfdrugs. venwhen companychieves egulatorypproval, ainingmarket

acceptance

s a crucial ondition

or he

rofitability

f the

ompany.

DNA PrintGenomics

nc.

DNA PrintGenomics

was founded

n

1999

by

Tony

Frudakis,

research

cientist

t

Corixa

Corporation,pharmaceutical

irm

n

theUS.

Frudakis

ad been

nvolved

with

Corixa's

predecessor,

AFF

Biologic,

DNA

testing

aboratory

hat

imed o

reduce he

cost of

genetic esting

o the

point

f

being

within hereach

of

everyday

onsumers.

DNA Print as listed n the

Nasdaq,

and

over he

next ew

years

talso

acquired

ther

companies.ts main erviceswere nforensic,harmacogeneticndconsumerncestry

testing.

owever,

t

gained

oth

national nd

nternational

eputation

ue

to tsforensic

application

f

ncestryesting.

he

company's

pparent

chievements

n

dentifying

us-

pects

n a series f US

criminalases attracted

edia ttention

nd

was the

ubject

f a

numberf

news

tories.10

espite

he

pparent

uccess f

this

pplication,

hich

ormed

part

f the

company's

evenue

tream,

n

early

009

DNA PrintGenomics

wentbust

after deal

withNanobac

Pharmaceuticalso

acquire

he

ompany

ell

hrough.11

While he

ilings

fdeCODE

andNitroMed

mack

f

having

een

drafted

y

awyers,

the one

of the2006

filing

y

DNA Print s much

more

nformal.or

example,

t fre-

quently rovides

more ccessible

xplanations

f technical

erms,

uch s

single

nucle-

otide olymorphisms.

This more nformal

tyle

s

very

much

n evidence

n the

following

tatement

n

whetherts

products,

hich

lready

were

on the

market,

ould

generate

rofit

n the

longer

erm. he

company xpressed

ncertainty,iving

he

following

lunt ssessment

ofthe ituationtfaced:



15/20

424 Social tudies

f

cience

1

3)

We

remain

keptical

hat he onsumer

arketor ur

roducts,

hichs

mainly

upportedy

genealogy

nthusiasts,

ill emain

trongnough

o

ustifyignificant

xpenditures

o

develop

new roducts.t spossiblehat he pplicationfgeneticestingogenealogys apassingad

and hat

ublic

nterest

n

geneticenealogy

esting

ill

ubstantially

ecrease.f

ublic

nterest

decreases,

ur

evenues

enerated

rom

ur

roducts

old othe

onsumer arket ill

ikely

decrease.

DNAPrint,006)

Such

xpressedcepticism

bout ts wnfutures

quite triking,

nd s

typical

f

he if-

ferent

tyle

n

which his

iling

s written

ompared

o those fthe

ther wo

ompanies.

This s also an

interesting

ssessment f the

market,

inceevidence n the

number f

products

old

uggested

hat he

market

or

enetic

ncestry

r

genealogical

ervices as

themost uccessful orm f

direct-to-consumer

enetic esting

t that ime

Wolinksy,

2006).

In the ame

filing,

NA Print enomics lsoreflectedn reactions othe2005

approval

f

BiDil

by

theFDA.

It notes hat

he

ontroversy

hat

ad surrounded

iDil

could

havewider

mplications

or

ublic

pinion

n suchmatters

s

genetic

esting:

Recently,

rticles

ave

ppearedccusing

he DA

nd

NitroMed

f

racial

iscrimination'nd

claiming

hat o

drugs

hould e

developed

sing enetic

esting

hat

might

eparate

ut

individuals

y

race,

olor r reed'

ithout

egard

o he

enefithich

ight

ecaused or he

Africanmerican

atient.

ccording

o

uch

ritics,

he

otential

armn

he ormf

ncreased

discriminationar

utweighs

hebenefits.

everal

oteworthy

enetic

cientistsave lso

voiced heir

pinions

hat ur

echnology

nd

technologies

imilaro

those

eveloped

y

NitroMedrediscriminatingnd hould ot edevelopedr pprovedy he ederal,tater

local

overnments.DNAPrint,006)

This

statementinks commentaries

n the

technologies

evelopedby

DNA Print

Genomicswith he

ontroversy

hat ad surrounded

itroMed

harmaceuticalsnd the

approval

nd

marketing

f BiDil. As

point

f

fact,

n

designing

heir linical rials

or

BiDil,

NitroMed idnot se

genetic

esting

o

select

atients

ndno

such est xisted

or

the linical

rescription

f

that

rug.

As I

indicated

bove,

one of the

major

ources f

controversy

as the

way

the

A-HeFT trial

elied n

self-identifiedocial

categories

f

'Black' or African-merican' s proxies or predictedathophysiologicalifferences

between

ategories

n

the

human

opulation.

n

any

ase,

despite

he

pparent

isunder-

standing,

his tatement

onethelessevealshow DNA

Print

erceived

he

relevance f

controversiesbout he

products

f other

ompanies.

n

this

nstance,

NA

Print

osi-

tioned tself

s

sharing

zone of risk

with

NitroMed;

zone

in

which heir

roducts

were lso

subject

o

critique y

scientistsn

the

grounds

f

racial

discrimination.

The risk

factor tatementsf

SEC

filings

made

by

these hree

ompanies

herefore

inscribe

pessimistic

uture

istinguishedy

uncertainty,nticipations

f failure

ather

than

uccess,

nd

possible

isks

nd hazards

nstead f

promises

nd

hopes.

Far from

being

ormulaicnd

bland,

uchnarrations

rovide

nteresting

ontrasts

o

corporate

ress

releases, ebsites ndmedia nterviewshathould e of nterestosocial cientists.

Promising pessimism

This

paper

focused n the

nstitutional

rameworkf

thePrivate

ecurities

itigation

Act and ts

egal protection

f the

forward-looking

tatements'

hrough

hich

utures



16/20

Tutton

425

are

projected.

argued

hat he o-articulationf

pessimistic

nd

promising

utures

n

such statementsonstituten

important

ite of

anticipatoryractice

or

ontemporary

biocapital.

In

the

egime

f

biocapital,

ompanies

re

compelled

o nhabitones

of

contingency

about heir uturesnd

to

engage

n

anticipatory

ork

n both

romising

nd

pessimistic

registers.

essimistic

epresentations

f

the future annot

be treated

eparately

rom

promissoryepresentations

and

surely

he EC

would dvise hat ne

should ever

ead

them

eparately). ndoubtedly,

he

roduction

f

uch tatements

eeps

awyers

n

busi-

ness nd serves o

nformnvestment

ecisions,

llowing

he EC

commissioners

o feel

that

hey

re

protecting

nvestors. hether

r not

they

erve

nvestorss

better

uides

tothe uturehan

ositive

laimsmade

n

company ress

eleases hould

e left o

others

to debate.nthis aper, havebeenmore nterestednconsideringheir aluefor ocial

scientists.

arlier,

suggested

hat heSEC

registration

ocuments an

instance f how

every romising

utures

predicated

n anothermore

essimistic

uture

o be avoided.

How

suchdocumentsnscribe

ubject ositions,

dentities

nd

nterests,

nd

align

vari-

ous actors

n

a

negative

iew of future

ircumstances,

houldbe of nterest

or nder-

standing

he

contemporary

errain

f

genomics,

with ts

social,

political,

egal

and

commercial

ntanglements.

hese documents

re not

imply

roduced

hrough

oiler-

plating:

n closer

nspection

hey

rovide

pecific

nd

contingent

ommentaries

nd

observations

hat eveal

omplexities

nthe ommercial

orlds

f he ife

ciences.

hey

outline ncertainties

ith

eveloping roducts

nd

bringing

hem

o

market,

nderline

the

mportance

nd difficultiesfforminglliances, lluminatehepervasive oleof

regulation,

ndreveal he ense

networksf

nterestsnd

ctors nvolved

n

those

worlds.

The statements

uoted

arlier

rom othNitroMed

nd

DNA PrintGenomics

lso

drew ttentiono

how

ocial,

egal

nd ethical ebate

mong

cademics nd

other ctors

formed

art

f he

isky

errain

nwhich hose

ompanies perated.

his

helps

o

explain

why

n

2006 and

2007

representatives

fNitroMed

nd other

dvocates

fthe

pproval

of

BiDil

took

heunusual

tep

f

attending

cademic

meetings

t

MIT on

developments

in

race,

cience nd

medicine,

nwhich

eading

ritics uch s

Troy

uster ndJonathan

Kahnwere

peakers.12

uring

he

econd f hese

meetings,

n

2007,

tbecame lear

hat

some upportersfthedrug's pprovalwere oncernedhat he rgumentsdvanced y

'liberal ocial

scientists',

uch

s those

peaking

t that

meeting,

ere

having

n

adverse

effectn

the

willingness

fHealth

Maintenance

rganizations

o reimburse

or

rescrip-

tions f he

rug.

Whetherrnot his

laimwas

well

supported,

t

vividly

llustrated

ow

participants

n

debates

boutnew

developments

n

science,

echnology

ndmedicine

an

themselves

ecome

risk

actors',

rom he

point

f

view of

companies

romoting

hese

developments,

ith

potentialmplications

or

regulatorypproval,

market

cceptance

and

profitability.

From n STS

perspective

heres more

obe saidabout

he

alueof

being essimistic,

even

n

such

n institutionalized

orm.

rojections

f bad

things

hat

an

happen

ore-

ground omplexitiesndcontingencieshat nterestTS scholarsndotherocialscien-

tists.

herefore,

ttention

hould lso

be

given

o

the onstruction

f

pessimistic

utures,

since o much

lready

as been

devoted o

positive

xpectations,

opes

and

promises.

The SEC documents

rovide

xcellent

material

orfurther

esearch,

s this

paper

has

only ampled

he

ilings

fthree

ompanies,

ndthere

s a wealth

f

potentially

ascinat-

ingfilings

vailablefrom he

SEC's online

atabase.

his

study

s

only

startingoint



17/20

426

Social tudies

f

Science

1(3)

for

onsidering

ow

pessimism

s articulated

nd serves o

shape

xpectations.

hile

haveno desire o

alignmyself

ith

onservativeommentatorsuch

s

John

erbyshire,

perhaps

heres

something

o commend

essimism

or

nalysts

nterestedn

understand-

ing

the

ocial,

political,egal

and commercial

ntanglements

f

promises

nd

expecta-

tions

n

the

ontemporary

ife

ciences. hiscouldbe

rather

romising.

Acknowledgements

I

wouldike o hank oan aran ndMike

ortunor

aking

he

ime oread nd

ommentn n

earlier ersionf his

aper,

s well s the

hree

nonymous

eferees hohave ll

helped

ith

strengtheningy rguments.

hankslsoto Mike

Lynch

ho

provided

ncisiveditorial

nput

into he

aper.

alsobenefitedrom

resenting

his

work

tvarious

onferencesnd

workshops

and, or heirommentsn hoseccasions,wouldike o hank dam edgecoe,uth cNally

andAaron

anofsky.

he

upport

f

heUK

Economic

nd

ocial

Research ouncil

ESRC)

s

gratefullycknowledged.

hiswork

orms

art

f he

rogramme

f he SRC

Genomicsetwork

at

Cesagen.

Notes

1

Press elease

y

deCODE

2009).

2.

Press elease

y

deCODE

2009).

3. See the

orporate

ebsiteor

ntelligize,

nc.

Available

t:

http://www.intelligize.com/.

4. Under he

erms

f

the

Act,

irms

re notunder

legalobligation

o revise

hese isks

once

hey

ave dentifiednd rticulatedhem. owever,tdoes eem hatn

practice any

companies

hoose o

update

hese

tatements

oreflecthe

hanged

ircumstancesftheir

organizations.

5. See for

xample ueppern.d.).

6.

To be

sure,

heres an

elementf

disclosurenvolved

ince he irms

ust

rovide

inancial

information,

ublishing

etails f

evenues,

osses

nd

rofits

ade

odate.

7. These

ilings

re

publicly

nd

reely

vailableobe

read nd

ownloadedrom

heUS SEC

websitend earchablender

ompany

ame

nd

ilingype.

he EC

websites: www.sec.

gov.

8. See deCODE

Genetics

orporate

ebsite.

vailablet:

www.decode.com.

9. NitroMedharmaceuticalsnc. ress elease,First eartailuretudynAfricanmericans

shows 3

percentmprovement

n

urvival.iDil

demonstrates

ignificant

mprovement

n

survivalates

n

African

mericaneart

ailure

atients.'

vailablet:

www.nitromed.com.

10. See

Newsome

2007).

1

See Genome eb

2009).

1

. These vents ere

rganized

y

he

enteror he

tudy

f

Diversity

n

Science,

echnology,

and

MedicinetMIT

Cambridge,

A,

USA),

between006

nd 008. or

etails f hese

eventseethe enter's

ebsitet:

http://web.mit.edu/csd/CSD/Homepage.html.

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