Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction and Delivery ... · LIBYAN POLITICAL CONFLICT: ITS...

TRIALOGUE

Meeting Place for Discussion on

Foreign and Security Policy

WHAT IS GOING ON IN LIBYA? INTERESTS,

POSITIONS AND PRIORITIES OF RUSSIAN POLICY

IN THIS COUNTRY

November 21, 2018

Vasily A. KuznetsovHead of the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies,

Russian Academy of Sciences

WHAT IS GOING ON IN LIBYA? INTERESTS, POSITIONS AND PRIORITIES OF RUSSIAN POLICY IN THE COUNTRY

© V. Kuznetsov, 2018

LIBYAN POLITICAL CONFLICT:ITS DYNAMICS AND STRUCTURE

One or two conflicts in Libya?

TWO CONFLICTS2011 AND 2014-2018

ONE CONFLICT2011-2018

- Dynamics of casualties- Different local actors- Different external actors- Different processes of

reconciliation

- One initial reason- Same local groups of actors(regions, tribal groups etc.)- Limited external engagement


LIBYAN POLITICAL CONFLICT:ITS DYNAMICS AND STRUCTURE

Pres. Council

GNAState

CouncilCentral

Bank

HoR LNA

Amazigh Supreme Council

ToubouIS

Interim Government in Al-Bayda

National Salvation Gov.

Council of tribes and

cities

Localmilitias

Localmilitias

Localmilitias

Central Bank 2

Local bodies

Localmilitias

Localmilitias

Local bodies

Local bodies

Local bodies


Political Situation


Libyan Tribes


Gas- Oil- Production in Libya


Militias of Tripoli

Hashim Bishr

Haytham Tajuri

Abd Al-Rauf Karah


Militias of Tripoli

Abdassalam al-Zubi

Abd Al-Hani Al-Kikli

Muhammed Al-Gnidi Bashir al-Bugra


Specific Features of Libyan Conflict•Fragility of Statehood, lack of Political Experience, Fragility of Common Identities

•Fragility of Social Structure: half-destroyed tribal system, half-formed modern citizenship, quazi-urbanisation

•Fragility of Actors: no real powerful actors

•Transactionism: Conflict as a Competence for Rent

•Ideological Minimalism: Ideologies, International Status and Collective Memory as Resources


External Actors in Libya

Tripoli Tobruk

TurkeyEgypt

Saudi Arabia

Italy

France

UAE

Qatar

UN

AlgeriaTunisia

African Union

USARussia


Libyan Peace Process

Skhirat Agreement (December 2015)

UNSMIL: Action Plan for Libya(Last Edition 2018)

• Constitution• National Conferenc

(Humanitarian Dialogue)• Elections

Meetings in UAE


Russia in Libya: Interests and Objectives➢- Absence of Strategic Interests

➢- Libya as a Part of the MENA Region: Creation of a new inclusive Regional Order

➢- Libya as a Part of Southern Mediterranean: Instrument of Russia-Europe Relations

➢- Libya as it is: Economic Cooperation


Russia in Libya: Tracks of Interaction

Ministry of Defense Ministry of

Foreign Affairs

Duma Chechnya

Contact Group

Presidency

LNA

GNA

HoR

State Council

Local Actors


Russia in Libya: Economic Cooperation In first 9 months of 2018: 172 752 639 $.

In the same period of 2017 it was 62 328 371 $. Growth: 56,44%

•Metals: 49,92% (in 2017 – 3,38%);

•Foodstuffs: 33,46% (in 2017 – 86,36%);

•Chemical production: 9,19% (in 2017 – 0,06%);

•Mineral Products: 3,12% (in 2017 – 3,19%);

•Wood, pulp and paper products: 2,83% (in 2017 – 6,34%).


Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction and Delivery ... · LIBYAN POLITICAL CONFLICT: ITS...

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