PROJECTIONS OF INCOMES, PENSIONS AND LONG-TERM CARE
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Transcript of PROJECTIONS OF INCOMES, PENSIONS AND LONG-TERM CARE
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PROJECTIONS OF INCOMES, PENSIONS AND LONG-TERM CARE
WORKPACKAGE 5
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PROJECTIONS OF PENSIONS AND LONG-TERM CARE:WORKPACKAGE 5 (WP5)
WP5 aims to produce projections of expenditure on pensions and long-term care to 2031 and beyond
WP5 involves researchers from:• University of Essex• Pensions Policy Institute (PPI)• Personal Social Services Research Unit (PSSRU)
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WORKPACKAGE 5 MODELS
Three models -
• CARESIM model of older people’s incomes and savings;
• PPI models of pensions;• PSSRU model of long-term care
Jointly produce projections of expenditure on pensions and long-term care.
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AIMS OF THE PSSRU MODEL
The PSSRU model aims to make projections of:
• Numbers of disabled older people
• Users of long-term care services
• Long-term care expenditure: public and private
• Social care workforce
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NUMBERS OF DISABLED OLDER PEOPLE
• Age (five bands) and gender• Disability (six groups- IADLs and ADLs)• Household type (five categories)• Housing tenure (two categories)
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INFORMAL CARE
• Current modelling • demand modelled as a function of age, gender,
disability, household type, housing tenure• by source (spouse, adult children, others)• supply modelled using marital status• based on 2001/02 GHS
• Planned modelling• to incorporate availability of living children in
modelling demand for & supply of informal care• new analyses of informal care using 2002/03,
2004/05 ELSA
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SERVICES AND BENEFITS
• Residential care – in residential homes, nursing homes and hospitals
• Home care, day care, meals• Day hospital, community nursing, chiropody• Assessment and care management• Disability benefits
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EXPENDITURE
PUBLIC
• Social services net• NHS• Disability benefits used to fund care
PRIVATE
• User charges• Private purchase of services
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CARESIM
• Uses micro data on older people’s income and capital assets (Family Resources Survey)
• Simulates the means-tests for residential and home care
• Calculates what each older person in the sample would pay for care should they need it
• ‘Ages’ the sample to 2022
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LINKS BETWEEN CARESIM & PSSRU MODEL
• PSSRU model provides weights within care type and age/gender/marital status/housing tenure group
• Weights used to adjust CARESIM results for differences in care needs across these groups
• CARESIM provides to PSSRU model• projected trend in % of clients eligible for state
support• projected average % of charges met by state
supported service users• projected average % of user charges and private
payments met using disability benefits
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Cell-based labour market projection
Aggregate SERPS/S2P
Distribution of pensioner incomes: state and private
Aggregate BSPAggregate private pensions
Pension Credit CTB / HB (planned)
Income tax
Future income growth
PPI Aggregate Model
PPI Distributional Model
The PPI Aggregate and Distributional Models
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Model Links
Common data and assumptions• Demographics• Economics• Current pensioners’ incomes• Policy options
Potential links between the models• Housing tenure• Disability, caring and working over SPA• Future pensioners’ incomes
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Final Outputs
Aggregate:• Public expenditure on long-term care• Private expenditure on long-term care• Expenditure on state pensions• Levels of private pension income
Distributions of:• Future pensioners’ incomes• Private and public long-term care expenditure
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SCENARIOS (1): DRIVERS OF DEMAND
• Mortality rates: link with WP1• Disability rates: link WP2• Household composition: link with WP3• Housing tenure: link with Caresim• Real rises in unit costs
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SCENARIOS (2): PATTERNS OF CARE: EXAMPLES
• Supply of informal care – balance between formal and informal care: link with WP4
• Patterns of formal services: balance between home-based and residential care
• Role of assistive technology
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SCENARIOS (3): FINANCING SYSTEM: EXAMPLES
• Current means-tested system• Reforms to treatment of housing assets• Reforms to treatment of savings• Reforms to treatment of income• Means-testing with limited liability• Partnership arrangement• Free personal care