Projections and Total Effect of Measures: The Swiss experience
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Transcript of Projections and Total Effect of Measures: The Swiss experience
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Projections and Total Effect of Measures: The Swiss experienceProjections and Total Effect of Measures: The Swiss experience
Contents
1. The Swiss energy scenarios
- Methodology
- Institutional arrangements
2. Other projections
3. What‘s new?
4. Problems in the last
communication
5. How we try to solve them
6. General issues
UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications,
Bonn, 28.2 - 2.3. 2001
INFRAS, on behalf of Swiss Federal Office of Environment, Forests and Landscape
Markus Maibach
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The Swiss energy scenarios: MethodologyThe Swiss energy scenarios: Methodology
Aim: Aggregate basis for energy policy monitoring
Assumptions based on Swiss general scenarios (population, economic development etc.)
Bottom up data, specific model based forecasting
Specific measures are treated on an aggregate level
Transport is treated separately (based on specific traffic forecasts)
1990 to 2030 (1990 not temperature adjusted)
Basis for CO2-projections for energy related sources
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The scenariosThe scenarios Scenario I: Adopted measures
(cons. measures based on legislation and reasonable implementation
Scenario II: Proposed measures(cons. measures which are on the official political agenda)high probability to be adopted2a/2b: Different intension of measures (esp. energy production and pricing options)
Scenario III: Measures under consideration(cons. Measures which are proposed by popular initiatives)failed in the meantime
Scenario IV: Optimised goal oriented measuresLeast cost approach towards CO2-targets
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Major AssumptionsMajor AssumptionsPopulation
0
2'000'000
4'000'000
6'000'000
8'000'000
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
GDP real prices 1980 (mn CHF/a)
0
50'000
100'000
150'000
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250'000
300'000
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Primary energy demand (TJ/a)
0
150'000
300'000
450'000
600'000
750'000
900'000
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Investments in the building sector real prices 1980
(mn CHF/a)
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10'000
20'000
30'00040'000
50'000
60'000
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
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ResultsResults
CO2-Perspectives energy related sources
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1990 2010 2030
CO
2 M
io t
Scenario I Scenario IIa Scenario IIb Scenario III
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Institutional arrangementsInstitutional arrangements Federal ministry of environment, transport, energy and
telecommunication is leading the process
Coordination with other ministries (population and economic development), as an input
Federal office of energy has contracted private institutes (permanent procedure)
Service for transport studies is in charge of transport forecasts
Federal office of environment (FOEFL) is involved
Updating procedure: Problem driven, based on policy changes
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Other projectionsOther projections Decentralised process, based on emission and input data
No specific institutional arrangementsFOEFL is leading agency
Most important: Air pollution emission forecasts, for transport and other sectors, mainly only considering adopted measures
Scenarios available for agriculture, at least for the main input data, depending on the development of the Swiss agriculture policy (In charge: Swiss federal office of agriculture)
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What‘s new?What‘s new? Updated scenario 1 for all energy related sources
(Adopted measures, considering the Swiss transport policy changes)
Adopted CO2-legislation (target oriented) is not considered yet
Scenario 3 (cons. popular initiatives of energy taxation) obsolete
New transport emission forecast (all GHG emissions and precursors)
Very good monitoring data (effects) of energy policy measures
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Problems occured during the reviewProblems occured during the review
Switzerland has no ‚without measures scenario‘.
The ‚with measures scenario‘ differs from inventory data, due to temperature adjustment and other minor issues.$
The effect of measures is only possible on a disaggregated level (individual impact studies)
Historic trend extrapolation for other sources as the main methodological input.
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How we treat these problems?How we treat these problems? A new basis for the scenario ‚adopted measures‘ with
improved data quality
Since we implemented new measures, there is a chance to show a general effect of new measure, by comparing with the old scenario 1.
Better use of impact studies (transport sector, energy measures, based on monitoring reports) to show the effect of measures.
Illustration of possible implementation paths of our CO2-legislation.
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Issues for discussionIssues for discussion What is an ‚adopted‘ measure?
Depends very much on the interpretation of legislation It is important to show uncertainties and range of
possibilities properly
Effect of measures:Bottom up aggregation is not equal to a general BAU-scenario (methodological inconsistencies) Clear and transparent reference to impact studies,
qualititative aggregate statement
Internal update procedure and UNFCCC requests:How to optimise synergies? ‚wrong official data‘ versus ‚true‘ inofficial data Show the officiality, and report progress within the
reviews