PROJECT#2PREDICT MALFUNCTIONAL COMPONENTS OF ASUS

NOTEBOOKS

PROJECT DESCRIPTION

• THE GOAL OF PAKDD 2014 COMPETITION IS TO PREDICT FUTURE MALFUNCTIONAL COMPONENTS OF ASUS NOTEBOOKS FROM HISTORICAL DATA. THIS WILL HELP ESTIMATE HOW MANY PRODUCTS WILL REQUIRE MAINTENANCE OR REPAIR SERVICES.

• ASUS HAS PROVIDED INFORMATION ON ITS LAPTOP SHIPMENTS AS WELL AS THE LAPTOPS REQUIRING MAINTENANCE OR REPAIR SERVICES. PARTICIPANTS WILL USE THIS INFORMATION TO ESTIMATE HOW MANY OF EACH MODULE OF A SPECIFIC MODEL WILL REQUIRE MAINTENANCE OR REPAIR SERVICES.

DATA DESCRIPTION

• TWO KINDS OF HISTORICAL INFORMATION ARE GIVEN: SALE LOG AND REPAIR LOG. THE TIME PERIOD OF THE SALE LOG IS FROM JANUARY/2005 TO FEBRUARY/2008; WHILE THE TIME PERIOD OF THE REPAIR LOG IS FROM FEBRUARY/2005 TO DECEMBER/2009.

• PARTICIPANTS SHOULD EXPLOIT THE SALE AND REPAIR LOG TO PREDICT THE THE MONTHLY REPAIR AMOUNT FOR EACH MODULE-COMPONENT FROM JANUARY/2010 TO JULY/2011. IN OTHER WORDS, THE MODEL SHOULD OUTPUT A SERIES (NINETEEN ELEMENTS, ONE ELEMENT FOR ONE MONTH) OF PREDICTED REAL-VALUE (AMOUNT OF REPAIR) FOR EACH MODULE-COMPONENT.

FILE DESCRIPTION

• SALETRAIN.CSV - THE HISTORICAL SALE DATA. IT SPECIFIED THE NUMBER OF TIMES THAT EACH MODULE-COMPONENT IS SOLD FOR EACH MONTH. EACH MODULE-COMPONENT MAY HAVE MORE THAN ONE SALE LOG IN A MONTH. THIS FILE CONTAINS FOUR FIELDS: MODULE_CATEGORY, COMPONENT_CATEGORY, YEAR/MONTH, AND NUMBER_SALE. THIS FILE SHOULD BE USED FOR TRAINING THE PREDICTIVE MODEL.

FILE DESCRIPTION

• REPAIRTRAIN.CSV - THE HISTORICAL REPAIR DATA. EACH ENTRY IN THIS FILE IS A LOG OF REPAIR, INCLUDING WHICH MODULE-COMPONENT TO BE REPAIRED, THE MONTH/YEAR OF REPAIR, THE MONTH/YEAR THAT THIS PART IS SOLD, THE NUMBER OF MODULE-COMPONENT TO BE REPAIRED. THE TIME PERIOD IS FROM FEBRUARY/2005 TO DECEMBER/2009. THIS FILE CONTAINS FIVE FIELDS: MODULE_CATEGORY, COMPONENT_CATEGORY, YEAR/MONTH(SALE), YEAR/MONTH(REPAIR), AND NUMBER_REPAIR. THIS FILE SHOULD BE USED FOR TRAINING THE PREDICTIVE MODEL.

FILE DESCRIPTION

• OUTPUT_TARGETID_MAPPING.CSV - MAP THE REPAIR PREDICTION (FOR EACH MODULE-COMPONENT, FROM JANUARY/2010 TO JULY/2011) TO THE TARGET ID. MORE SPECIFICALLY, THE I-TH ENTRY IN THIS FILE WHICH DENOTES A CERTAIN MODULE-COMPONENT AND A MONTH/YEAR, SHOULD MAP TO THE I-TH TARGET ID. THIS FILE CONTAINS FOUR FIELDS: MODULE_CATEGORY, COMPONENT_CATEGORY, YEAR, AND MONTH.

FILE DESCRIPTION

• SAMPLESUBMISSION.CSV - A SAMPLE OF SUBMISSION FILE. IT CONTAIN TWO COLUMNS: ID (TARGET ID) AND TARGET (THE PREDICTION SCORE). THIS SAMPLE IS AN ALL ZERO SUBMISSION.

DATA FIELDS

• MODULE_CATEGORY - THE ID OF A MODEL (ENCODED AS FROM M1 TO M9)

• COMPONENT_CATEGORY -THE ID OF A PART (ENCODED AS FROM P1 TO P31)

• YEAR/MONTH - THE YEAR AND THE MONTH

• MONTH - THE MONTH

• YEAR - THE YEAR

• NUMBER_SALE - THE NUMBER OF SALE

• NUMBER_REPAIR - THE NUMBER OF REPAIR

PROJECT EVALUATION

• THIS COMPETITION IS EVALUATED ON THE MEAN ABSOLUTE ERROR (MAE):

• N IS THE NUMBER OF ROWS

• Y I IS THE PREDICTED TARGET

• YI IS THE ACTUAL TARGET