Project title: Google African Meningitis Project
description
Transcript of Project title: Google African Meningitis Project
Project title:Google African Meningitis Project
• Goal: Provide weather forecast information to the World Health Organization, Benin Chad, Nigeria, Togo, relevant to vaccinate dissemination decision-making.
• Sponsor: Google non-profit wing• Current and Anticipated Funding
– Calendar Year 2009: $230K – Calendar Year 2010: $230K– Calendar Year 2011 $230K– Calendar Year 2012: $210K
• Participants:– RAL: T. Hopson, M. Hayden, Arnaud Dumont, Mukul
Tewari, Raj Pandya (UCAR), Tom Yoksas (UNIDATA)• New Opportunities
– Utilization of Thorpex-Tigge multi-center ensemble; medium-range disease forecasting
• Meningitis endemic in Africa• Sporadic large epidemics
(1996-1997:, 250,000 cases)• 5-10% fatality rate• 10-20% of survivors have permanent
impacts: hearing loss, brain damage, learning disabilities
• Vaccine in very limited supply• Risk = f(Relative Humidity) • We can forecast RH & vaccines
can be pre-positioned for maximum effectiveness
• Weekly telecons with WHO, Chad, Nigeria, Togo, Benin on 2-week epidemic outlook
Low Risk when Wet
High Epidemic Risk when Dry
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Significant Accomplishments to Date-- context and weather linkages
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Relative humidityacross the MeningitisBelt forecast 1 weekin advance …
… converted toprobability of anepidemic alert occurringacross the Belt3 weeks in advance
Within dashed region,risk has doubled(above background levels)
Significant Accomplishments to Date-- context and weather linkages
• Determined weather variables impacting meningitis incidence (RH)
• Employing Thorpex-Tigge ensemble operationally
• Providing weekly telecon 1- and 2-wk ahead forecast updates on meningitis belt status to WHO/countries
Capabilities Demonstrated-- weekly WHO telecons (today)
Today’s telecon 2-week ahead RH forecast (epidemiological week 17) for the ECMWF ensemble mean
Comparison with 2011 for the same week …
… and the climatological state for the same week
Capabilities Demonstrated-- Africa Decision Information System
Capabilities Demonstrated-- Africa Decision Information System (cont)
Capabilities Demonstrated-- Africa Decision Information System (cont)
Capabilities Demonstrated-- Africa Decision Information System (cont)
World Survey of Climatology, 1972
Climatology of West Africa
January July
SH SHL
Capabilities Demonstrated-- next steps
Capabilities Demonstrated-- next steps
Archive Centre
Current Data Provider
NCAR NCEP
CMC
UKMO
ECMWFMeteoFrance
JMAKMA
CMA
BoMCPTEC
IDD/LDM
HTTP
FTP
Unidata IDD/LDMInternet Data Distribution / Local Data ManagerCommodity internet application to send and receive data
NCDC
Unique Datasets/Software CreatedThorpex-Tigge
Archive Status and Monitoring, Variability between providers
Unique Datasets/Software CreatedThorpex-Tigge -- fields
Our application
Fitting T quantiles using QR conditioned on:
1) Ranked forecast ens
2) ensemble mean
3) ensemble median
4) ensemble stdev
5) Persistence
Additional science … quantile regression
Space-Time Continuum: Where are you?
103 m
105 m
101 m
107 m
min hour day season decade to century
Time Scale
Spa
tial S
cale
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