Project Risks and Feasibility Assessment - AOI

Project Risks and Feasibility Assessment

Advanced Systems Analysis and Design

Project Risk Factors

Project Risk Classification

• Feasibility is the measure of how beneficial or practical the development of an information system will be to an organization.

• Feasibility analysis is the process by which feasibility is measured.

• Feasibility should be measured throughout the life cycle.

• The scope and complexity of an apparently feasible project can change after the initial problems and opportunities are fully analyzed or after the system has been designed.

• Thus, a project that is feasible at one point in time may become infeasible at a later point in time.

Feasibility Assessment

• Why feasibility assessment?

• Information systems are major investments

• IS projects are subject to the same cost justifications as any other capital investments

• Business value paradox

• Avoid "black hole" projects

1

Survey

2

Study

3

Definition

4

Configuration

5

Design

6

Procurement

7

Construction

8

Delivery

9

Support

End-users

Vendors

Feasibility Analysis

• Feasibility Checkpoints During Analysis • Systems Analysis -Survey Phase

• ``Do the problems (or opportunities) warrant the cost of a detailed study of the current system?''

• Systems Analysis - Study/Definition Phase

• Better estimates of development costs and the benefits to be obtained from a new system.

• Requirements often prove to be more extensive that originally stated.

• If feasibility is in question, scope, schedule, and costs must be rejustified.

• Systems Analysis - Selection Phase

• A major feasibility analysis evaluating options for the target systems design.

• Typical options that are evaluated include

• Do nothing! Leave the current system alone.

• Reengineer the (manual) business processes, not the computer-based processes.

• Enhance existing computer processes.

• Purchase a packaged application.

Four Tests for Feasibility

• Operational feasibility is a measure of how well a specific solution will work in the organization. It is also a measure of how people feel about the system/project.

• Does management support the system?

• How do the end-users feel about their role in the new system?

• What end-users or managers may resist or not use the system? Can this problem be overcome? If so, how?

• Usability analysis

• Ease of use, Ease of learning, User satisfaction

• Technical feasibility is a measure of the practicality of a specific technical solution and the availability of technical resources and expertise.

• Is the proposed technology or solution practical? Is the technology mature?

• Do we currently possess the necessary technology?

• Do we possess the necessary technical expertise, and is the schedule reasonable?

• Schedule feasibility is a measure of how reasonable the project timetable is.

• Economic feasibility is a measure of the cost-effectiveness of a project or solution. This is often called a cost-benefit analysis.

System Costs

Costs

Development cost

Consulting fees

Hardware/ software

Conversion/ installation

Training/ Documentation

Operation/ Production costs

Personnel costs

System usage/ maintenance cost

System upgrades

Supplies

System Benefits

Benefits

Tangible benefits

Reduced processing errors

Increased throughput

Decreased response time

Manpower reduction

Cost elimination

Increased sales

Reduced credit losses

Intangible benefits

Improved customer satisfaction

Improved employee morale

Better decision making

Cost Benefit Analysis

Payback analysis

Return on investment

Net present value

PV = 1(1+i)̂n

Developed by Barry Boehm (1981)

Predicts the effort & duration of a project

Based on size of the system & a number of “cost drivers,”

Constructive Cost Model (COCOMO)

Constructive Cost Model (COCOMO)

WM = Work-Months; TDEV = Time of Development

KDSI = Thousands of delivered source instruction

TDEV=

2.5(MM)0.32

WM=

3.6(KDSI)1.20

Very Large Size,

Contractor developed

Embedded

TDEV=

2.5(MM)0.35

WM=

3.0(KDSI)1.12

Intermediate-Large Size,

Partial In-house &

contracted

Semidetached

TDEV=

2.5(MM)0.38

WM=

2.4(KDSI)1.05

Small-Medium Size,

In-house Dev.

Organic

Schedule Effort Description Mode

CoCoMo Basic Equations

Cost Drivers in COCOMO

Product attributes

software reliability, database size, software complexity

Hardware/platform attributes

execution time constraints, main storage constraints, virtual

machine volatility, turnaround time

Personnel attributes

Analyst capability, applications experience, programmer capability,

virtual machine experience, language experience

Project attributes

use of modern programming practices, use of software tools,

development schedule constriants

Factors not Included in COCOMO

Application type

Language level

Requirements volatility

Personnel continuity

Management quality

Customer interface quality

Amount of documentation

Hardware configuration

Security and privacy

restrictions

Function Point Analysis

Developed by Allan Albrecht at IBM (1979)

Based on estimation of inputs, outputs, queries, interfaces,

and files

Main advantages

Possible to estimate function points early in the

development life cycle

Can be estimated by non-technical personnel

Function Point Analysis

FC =

Count *

Weight

6 4 3 Applications Interfaces

10 7 5 Files

15 10 7 Inquires

7 5 4 Output (eg, reports,

screens)

6 4 3 Input

Complex Average Simple

Basic Equation: FP = FC (PCA)

PCA = 0.65 + (0.01) Σci

PCA – Processing Complexity Adjustment; C – Complexity Factors

Feasibility Analysis of Candidate Systems

• Candidate Systems Matrix

• The candidate systems matrix documents similarities and differences between candidate systems; however, it offers no analysis.

• The columns of the matrix represent candidate solutions.

• The rows of the matrix represent characteristics that serve to differentiate the candidates. The breakdown is as follows:

• TECHNOLOGY

• INTERFACES

• DATA

• PROCESSES

• GEOGRAPHY

Candidate 1 Name Candidate 2 Name Candidate 3 Name

Technology

Interfaces

Data

Processes

Geography

Characteristics Candidate 1 Candidate 2 Candidate 3 Candidate ...

Portion of System Computerized

Brief description of that portion of the

system that would be computerized in

this candidate.

COTS package Platinum

Plus from Entertainment

Software Solutions would be

purchased and customized to

satisfy Member Services

required functionality.

Member Services and

warehouse operations in

relation to order fulfillment.

Same as candidate 2.

Benefits

Brief description of the business benefits

that would be realized for this

candidate.

This solution can be

implemented quickly

because its a purchased

solution.

Fully supports user required

business processes for

Soundstage Inc. Plus more

efficient interaction with

member accounts.


Servers and Workstations

A description of the servers and

workstations needed to support this

candidate.

Technically architecture

dictates Pentium pro, MS

Windows NT class servers

and Pentium, MS Windows

NT 4.0 workstations

(clients).

Same as candidate 1. Same as candidate 1.

Software Tools Needed

Software tools needed to design and

build the candidate (e. g., database

management system, emulators,

operating systems, languages, etc.). Not

generally applicable if applications

software packages are to be purchased.

MS Visual C++ and MS

ACCESS for customization

of package to provide report

writing and integration.

MS Visual Basic 5.0

System Architect 3.1

Internet Explorer

MS Visual Basic 5.0

System Architect 3.1

Internet Explorer

Application Software

A description of the software to be

purchased, built, accessed, or some

combination of these techniques.

Package Solution Custom Solution Same as candidate 2.

Method of Data Processing

Generally some combination of: on-line,

batch, deferred batch, remote batch, and

real-time.

Client/Server Same as candidate 1. Same as candidate 1.

Output Devices and Implications

A description of output devices that

would be used, special output

requirements, (e.g. network, preprinted

forms, etc.), and output considerations

(e.g., timing constraints).

(2) HP4MV department

Laser printers

(2) HP5SI LAN laser

printers

(2) HP4MV department

Laser printers

(2) HP5SI LAN laser

printers

(1) PRINTRONIX bar-code

printer (includes software &

drivers)

Web pages must be designed

to VGA resolution. All

internal screens will be

designed for SVGA

resolution.


Input Devices and Implications

A description of Input methods to be

used, input devices (e.g., keyboard,

mouse, etc.), special input requirements,

(e.g. new or revised forms from which

data would be input), and input

considerations (e.g., timing of actual

inputs).

Keyboard & mouse Apple “Quick Take” digital

camera and software

(15) PSC Quickscan laser

bar-code scanners

(1) - HP Scanjet 4C Flatbed

Scanner

Keyboard & mouse


Storage Devices and Implications

Brief description of what data would be

stored, what data would be accessed

from existing stores, what storage media

would be used, how much storage

capacity would be needed, and how

data would be organized.

MS SQL Server DBMS with

100GB arrayed capability.

Same as candidate 1. Same as candidate 1.


• Feasibility Analysis Matrix

• This matrix complements the candidate systems matrix with an analysis and ranking of the candidate systems. It is called a feasibility analysis matrix.

• The columns of the matrix correspond to the same candidate solutions as shown in the candidate systems matrix.

• Some rows correspond to the feasibility criteria presented in this chapter.

• Rows are added to describe the general solution and a ranking of the candidates.

• The cells contain the feasibility assessment notes for each candidate.


• Feasibility Analysis Matrix • Each row can be assigned a rank or score for each criteria (e.g., for

operational feasibility, candidates can be ranked 1, 2, 3, etc.).

• After ranking or scoring all candidates on each criteria, a final ranking or score is recorded in the last row.

Candidate 1 Name Candidate 2 Name Candidate 3 Name

Description

Operational

Feasibility

Technical

Feasibility

Schedule

Feasibility

Economic

Feasibility

Ranking

Feasibility Criteria Wt. Candidate 1 Candidate 2 Candidate 3 Candidate ..

Operational Feasibility

Functionality. A description of to what

degree the candidate would benefit the

organization and how well the system

would work.

Political. A description of how well

received this solution would be from

both user management, user, and

organization perspective.

30% Only supports Member

Services requirements and

current business processes

would have to be modified to

take advantage of software

functionality

Score: 60

Fully supports user required

functionality.

Score: 100


Score: 100

Technical Feasibility

Technology. An assessment of the

maturity, availability (or ability to

acquire), and desirability of the

computer technology needed to support

this candidate.

Expertise. An assessment to the

technical expertise needed to develop,

operate, and maintain the candidate

system.

30% Current production release of

Platinum Plus package is

version 1.0 and has only been

on the market for 6 weeks.

Maturity of product is a risk

and company charges an

additional monthly fee for

technical support.

Required to hire or train C++

expertise to perform

modifications for integration

requirements.

Score: 50

Although current technical

staff has only Powerbuilder

experience, the senior

analysts who saw the MS

Visual Basic demonstration

and presentation, has agreed

the transition will be simple

and finding experienced VB

programmers will be easier

than finding Powerbuilder

programmers and at a much

cheaper cost.

MS Visual Basic 5.0 is a

mature technology based on

version number.

Score: 95

Although current technical

staff is comfortable with

Powerbuilder, management is

concerned with recent

acquisition of Powerbuilder

by Sybase Inc.

MS SQL Server is a current

company standard and

competes with SYBASE in

the Client/Server DBMS

market. Because of this we

have no guarantee future

versions of Powerbuilder

will “play well” with our

current version SQL Server.

Score: 60

Economic Feasibility

Cost to develop:

Payback period (discounted):

Net present value:

Detailed calculations:

30%

Approximately $350,000.

Approximately 4.5 years.


See Attachment A.

Score: 60




See Attachment A.

Score: 85




See Attachment A.

Score: 90

Schedule Feasibility

An assessment of how long the solution

will take to design and implement.

10% Less than 3 months.

Score: 95

9-12 months

Score: 80

9 months

Score: 85

Ranking 100% 60.5 92 83.5

Project Risks and Feasibility Assessment - AOI

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