Project Risk Management Some Very Good Practices · University of Minnesota March 2, 2006 Project...
Transcript of Project Risk Management Some Very Good Practices · University of Minnesota March 2, 2006 Project...
TwinSPINUniversity of Minnesota
March 2, 2006
TwinSPINTwinSPINUniversity of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota
March 2, 2006March 2, 2006
Project Risk ManagementSome Very Good Practices
Keith D. Hornbacher, MBAHornbacher Associates
Direct: 952.891.3579 Fax: [email protected]
Project Risk ManagementProject Risk ManagementSome Very Good PracticesSome Very Good Practices
Keith D. Hornbacher, MBAKeith D. Hornbacher, MBAHornbacher AssociatesHornbacher Associates
Direct: 952.891.3579 Fax: 952.891.1099Direct: 952.891.3579 Fax: [email protected]
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Housekeeping – a list of these references (and more) available at desk after meetingHousekeeping Housekeeping –– a list of these references (and more) a list of these references (and more) available at desk after meetingavailable at desk after meeting
Software Engineering Institute (SEI)International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE)US Department of DefenseThe Association for Project Management (UK)Project Management Institute (PMI) Project Management Standards (ANSI/PMI 99-01-2004)
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Useful constructs in current dialogueUseful constructs in current dialogueUseful constructs in current dialogue
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Boehm: Agile and Plan-driven home grounds*Boehm: Agile and PlanBoehm: Agile and Plan--driven home grounds*driven home grounds*
*See Barry Boehm, p6, “Some Future Trends and Implications for Systems and Software Engineering Processes”, Systems Engineering, Vol. 9, No. 1, 2006
Size (# personnel)Culture (% thriving on chaos vs. order)
Criticality (Loss due to impact of defects)
Personnel (% Level 1B) (% Level 2&3)
Dynamism(% Requirements – change/month)
Agile Plan-driven
10 30
0 35
40 15
20 25
30 20
1030
3.01.0
0.3
70
90
10
3050
100
300
3
10
30
cd
e
ba
a: many livesb: single lifec: essential fundsd: discretionary fundse: comfort
Home Grounds
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Boehm: Risk-driven spiral approach to balancing Agility and Discipline*
Boehm: RiskBoehm: Risk--driven spiral approach to balancing driven spiral approach to balancing Agility and Discipline*Agility and Discipline*
*See Barry Boehm, p7, “Some Future Trends and Implications for Systems and Software Engineering Processes”, Systems Engineering, Vol. 9, No. 1, 2006
Rate the project’s environmental, agility-
oriented and plan driven risks
Uncertain about
things?
Buy information via prototyping, data collection
and analysis
Yes
No
Step 1 Risk Analysis
Architect application to encapsulate agile parts
Step 3 Architecture Analysis
Compare the agile and Plan-driven
risks
Step 2 RiskComparison
Neither dominate
Plan-driven risks dominate
Agility risks dominate
LCA
Step 5 Execute and MonitorDeliver incremental capabilities
according to strategy
Monitor progress and risks, opportunities, readjust balance
and process as appropriate
Tailor life cycle process around risk patterns and anchor point commitment
milestones
Step 4 Tailor Life Cycle
Go Risk-based Agile
Go Risk-based Plan-driven
Go Risk-based Agile in agile
parts; Go risk-based Plan-
driven elsewhere
Note: Feedback loops present but omitted
for simplicity
Concept Exploration Spirals Development Spirals
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So, what do we mean by the word “Risk”?So, what do So, what do wewe mean by the word mean by the word ““RiskRisk””??
Merriam-Webster ONLINE (www.m-w.com)– Possibility of loss or injury : PERIL [common usage]
Security, safety, health, product use– Not our context tonight
Risks – potential problems that could arise in the project– Too limiting for some purposes, being replaced by broader view;
still in use by many who matured in threat-based military applications
– Boehm seems to be in this camp, citing risks / opportunities
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Objectives tonightObjectives tonightObjectives tonight
Introduce evolving project risk management practices– Systems engineering - International Council on Systems
Engineering (INCOSE)– US Department of Defense (DoD)– UK Association for Project Management (APM)– Software Engineering Institute (SEI)– Project Management Institute (PMI)
Discuss PMI’s 6 processesScalability and portabilityQ & A as we proceed
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Systems Engineering HandbookSystems Engineering HandbookSystems Engineering Handbook
Risk. A measure of the uncertainty of attaining a goal, objective, or requirement pertaining to technical performance, cost, and schedule.
[Note: Often associated with threats rather than opportunities.- kdh]
INCOSE-TP-2003-016-02 (Approved), INCOSE SE Handbook, Version 2a, June 2004
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SE - Risk Management ProcessSE SE -- Risk Management ProcessRisk Management Process
1. PlanningEstablishment of the riskmanagement program plan andassignment of responsibilities
2. Risk IdentificationAnticipation, recognition &prioritization of potentialadverse outcomes and theassociated root causes
3. Risk AssessmentCharacterization of theMagnitude and likelihood ofrisks, to the depth warranted
4. Risk AnalysisEvaluation of costs and benefitsassociated with available riskmitigation options, if needed
5. Risk HandlingProgram intervention to reduceor eliminate risks, if justified,and tracking to assure success
ProgramManagement &
SystemsEngineering
Requirements, Functions& System Elements
Modifications to
program plan
INCOSE-TP-2003-016-02 (Approved), INCOSE SE Handbook, Version 2a, June 2004 – www.incose.org
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US Department of Defense - GuidebookUS Department of Defense US Department of Defense -- GuidebookGuidebook
Risk Management Guide for DOD Acquisition, Fifth Ed., (Version 2), Defense Acquisition University, June 2003.
DoD seems to be moving to include opportunities with threats – that is, outcomes based
terminology
11Risk Management Guide for DOD Acquisition, Fifth Ed., (Version 2), Defense Acquisition University, June 2003.
DoD - Risk Management StructureDoD DoD -- Risk Management StructureRisk Management Structure
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UK: The Association for Project ManagementUK: The Association for Project ManagementUK: The Association for Project Management
The PRAM Guide* originally published in 1997, . . . the second edition [November 2005] reflects many of the most recent developments in the concepts and practice of risk management, for example the inclusion of opportunity within the risk process, recognition of the importance of managing overall “project risk” as well as individual “risk events”, new insights into risk behaviour, more clear understanding of the benefits of risk management to all stakeholders, and new techniques to implement the process.
- Dr David Hillson FAPM FIRM, Director, Risk Doctor & Partners
*Project Risk Analysis and Management Guide
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UK: APM Risk Management Cycle*UK: APM Risk Management Cycle*UK: APM Risk Management Cycle*
*Project Risk Analysis and Management Guide, APM 1997
Define project
Focus PRAM
Identify Risks
Assess Risks
Plan Risk Responses
Handle risks by change to
project
Write Reports
Achievement of project objectives
Risk Assessment
Reports
Risk Register & Risk Model
…part of broader project plans
Documented Risk
Management Procedure
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Software Engineering Institute (SEI)Software Engineering Institute (SEI)Software Engineering Institute (SEI)
The purpose of Risk Management is to identify potential problems before they occur, so that risk-handling activities may be planned and invoked as needed across the life of the product or project to mitigate adverse impacts on achieving objectives
CMMI-SE/SW/IPPD/SS, v1.1 Continuous Representation, March 2002
(Version 1.2 of the CMMI Product Suite is planned for release in August of 2006 )
http://www.sei.cmu.edu/cmmi/
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SEI Risk Management ParadigmSEI Risk Management ParadigmSEI Risk Management Paradigm
Source: Software Risk Evaluation Method Description, December 1999
Continuous Risk Management
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SEI: Project Risk ManagementSEI: Project Risk ManagementSEI: Project Risk Management
Decision Analysis and Resolution
© 2001 by Carnegie Mellon University, CMMI Overview – Tutorial – V 1.0 Module 4 Part 1 – 03.27.01 – page 19
Determine Risk
Sources,Categories
DefineRisk
Parameters
EstablishRisk
ManagementStrategy Identify
Risks
Evaluate,Classify,Prioritize
RisksImplement
RiskMitigation
Plans
DevelopRisk
MitigationPlans
Risk Repository
Prepare for Risk Management Identify and Analyze Risks
Project Planning, Monitoring and Control
Mitigate Risks
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SEI - Risk Management ProcessSEI SEI -- Risk Management ProcessRisk Management Process
Software Acquisition Planning GuidelinesGUIDELINE 11: Software Risk ManagementContributor: Ray C. Williams GUIDELINE Software risk management is only successful when organizations are trained to actively identify risk, analyze and track it, plan how to mitigate it, communicate across all levels of the organization, and use risk information actively in making key decisions.
CMU/SEI-2005-HB-006 December 2005
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Project Management Institute (PMI)– 212K active members in 156 countries [www.pmi.org, Jan 2006)
• North America ~ 72% (US 134K, CA 19K)• Asia Pacific ~ 15%• Europe, Middle East, Africa (EMEA) ~ 10%• Latin America, Caribbean ~ 3%
– Published documents compiled and vetted by members – Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK®
Guide), Third Edition, 2004 is latest
Project Management Standards (ANSI/PMI 99-01-2004)Project Management Standards Project Management Standards (ANSI/PMI 99(ANSI/PMI 99--0101--2004)2004)
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Risk Definition for Our PurposesRisk Definition for Our PurposesRisk Definition for Our Purposes
Project Risk. . . is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on at least one project objective, such as time, cost, scope, or quality . . . . . . and is defined by two attributes, likelihood
of occurrence and impact if it occurs . . .PMBOK® Guide, Project Management Institute, Third ed., 2004
[Emphasis added]
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Why practice project risk management? Why practice project risk management? Why practice project risk management?
Of Fortune 500 Companies’ Projects Implemented– Nearly Half from 100% to 400% Over Budget– 86% Late Achieving Deliverable
Risk Management – identified as one of top priority remedial strategies
“Project Management Best Practices Report,” August 2000 - Center for Business PracticesReported in Trendwatch, PM Network - November 2002
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Project Risk Management BenefitsProject Risk Management BenefitsProject Risk Management Benefits
Increased predictabilityLower incidence of failureOverall lower project costsHigher rate of opportunity capture
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The quality of decision making can be greatly improved by using formal decision support processes to manage associated uncertainty.
Formal Models + Associated Analysis + Synthesis
Quality Decisions
- Chapman and Ward, Managing Project Risk and Uncertainty, 2002.
Decisions are Based on Informed IntuitionDecisions are Based on Informed IntuitionDecisions are Based on Informed Intuition
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Six Processes of Project Risk Management*Six Processes of Project Risk ManagementSix Processes of Project Risk Management**
Risk Management PlanningRisk IdentificationQualitative Risk AnalysisQuantitative Risk AnalysisRisk Response PlanningRisk Monitoring and Control
*Project Management Standards (ANSI/PMI 99-01-2004) PMBOK® Guide, Project Management Institute, Third ed., Ch 11, 2004.
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Key to all PRM good practices: QIQOKey to all PRM good practices: Key to all PRM good practices: QIQOQIQO
Quality data must be collected, analyzed , interpreted, and communicated.
Quality In, Quality Out
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Simple Project Risk Management ProcessSimple Project Risk Management ProcessSimple Project Risk Management Process
LearnPlan
Define
Identify
Respond
Handle
MonitorControl
Prioritize
Quant_itative
Qual_itative
Analyze
TriggerParameters?
No
Yes
Artifacts: DocumentPlan, Register, Database
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Risk Management PlanningRisk Management PlanningRisk Management Planning
Contains the elements that are necessary to properly prepare and set the ground rules that will allow us to manage the risk of the project– There are several inputs to the risk planning– The overall project plan-- defining stakeholders, size, complexity,
and objectives of the project– Overall company strategy for managing risk
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Project Risk Management Planning ContextProject Risk Management Planning ContextProject Risk Management Planning Context
Initial phase – align with stakeholders and policy– Objectives for project must be clear, consistent, understood, and
documented– Agreement on scope, method, process, roles, operational
implementation of risk management– Risk Management Plan (RMP) records decisions on process /
procedural details, plus the “who’s” and “how's”Clearly define what risk means (threats ~ opportunities)Risk Management effort must be explicitly funded –sends a “strong message”
Also sends clear message if not funded!
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Risk Management Plan - Some Key Questions to Answer IncludeRisk Management Plan Risk Management Plan -- Some Key Some Key Questions to Answer IncludeQuestions to Answer Include
What is the organization's PRM policy?Who will do what tasks – roles, responsibilitiesHow are we going to manage risk on this project?How will we tailor risk identification activities to this unique project?What types of analysis, tools, techniques, frequency, prioritization, and metrics are appropriate?– Qualitative analysis: scalar criteria for probability and impact (P, I)– Quantitative analysis: aggregation of risks, complexity, visibility
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Risk IdentificationRisk IdentificationRisk Identification
Identification of risk events calls upon the project team, subject matter experts, the stakeholders, and other project managers
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Structuring Risk IdentificationStructuring Risk IdentificationStructuring Risk Identification
Use of a metalanguage clearly identifies the risk– As a result of <specific cause>, the <uncertain event> may
occur and lead to <impact on objective(s)>
Vague identification leads to a poor response
First principle: Understand the situation to describe it clearly
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Risk Management Meta-LanguageRisk Management MetaRisk Management Meta--LanguageLanguage
Understand the cause(s) and impact to develop appropriate risk response strategies
Cause Risk ImpactBecause of a world-wide scarcity of
ABC materials
there is a risk that essential replacement
items cannot be found if a
problem arises during testing,
resulting in a delay to the completion of systems testing and
to the Critical Milestone (project
schedule)
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Risk Identification InputsRisk Identification InputsRisk Identification Inputs
Among the items that will be used– Project Charter– Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)– Project Description– Project Schedule– Cost Estimates– Budgets– Resource Availability– Resource Schedules– Procurement Information, and assumptions that have been
made and recorded
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There are many ways to discover and identify risk:– Documentation reviews– Brainstorming– Delphi technique– Expert interview– Checklists– Analogy– Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS)
Risk Identification (Cont.)Risk Identification (Cont.)
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Risk Identification Tool –Generic Risk Breakdown StructureRisk Identification Tool Risk Identification Tool ––Generic Risk Breakdown StructureGeneric Risk Breakdown Structure
Source: PMBOK® Guide, 3rd ed.
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Identification: Brainstorming (Adapted)Identification: Brainstorming (Adapted)Identification: Brainstorming (Adapted)Start with and augment the Risk Breakdown StructureCapture input data needed for Risk RegisterThe right people on the bus and wrong ones off the bus– Place makes a difference – eliminate distractions
Excellent team building opportunity– Facilitation by skilled non team member so all can participate– Manage dominant personalities – judging, solving NOT allowed– Time keeper helps session stay moving
Document ideas – write on sticky notes, cover walls in related groups (RBS works here); use projector in real-time to capture
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Risk AnalysisRisk AnalysisRisk Analysis
Importance of each risk is evaluated using list of identified risksEvaluation or assessment process is necessary to itemize these risks into ranking that will place them in order of importance– Combination of probability and impact causes the risk to be an
important consideration to the project– Risk tolerance – the willingness or unwillingness of a person or an
organization to accept risk
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Risk Impacts - those things that affect project objectives– The cost (money)– Schedule (duration)– Scope of the project (technical aspects, quality)
These impacts can manifest themselves as affects on– Effort required, labor rates, duration of tasks, technical feasibility,
material suitability, material cost, equipment availability, and more
Risk Analysis: Impact, outcome if occursRisk Analysis: Impact, outcome if occurs
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Risk Probability – the probability of a risk occurring is essential to the assessment of the riskProbability or likelihood number that represents the chance that a particular outcome will occur Qualitative analysis uses library of terms to describeLanguage we use often imprecise
Risk Analysis: ProbabilityRisk Analysis: Probability
Exercise - Handout
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Comparison of 507 Responses to SurveyComparison of 507 Responses to Survey
Source: Describing Probability: the limitations of a natural language, © 2005 David Hillson, Ph.D. Used with permission.
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Expected Value – a way of combining the probability and the impact of a risk in a meaningful way– Expected Monetary Value: $100 = $1,000 * 10%
Expected value is also a good guideline for the amount of money that might be spent to eliminate the risk
Risk Analysis: ResultsRisk Analysis: Results
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Risk Analysis - TriageRisk Analysis Risk Analysis -- TriageTriage
A way to organize the risks so that they can be dealt with in a logical way
– Risks need to be put into groups that can then be managed by individuals who are more familiar with the nature of the risks
– Risks need to be prioritizedComparative RankingGrouping the Risks (RBS hot spots)Affinity Diagramming Logic networks
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Qualitative Risk Analysis - InputQualitative Risk Analysis Qualitative Risk Analysis -- InputInput
Risk items from Identification step recorded in Risk Register (database with search utility)Criteria for assigning event probabilities and impacts on objectives using words and phrases– Need to correspond to each branch, element, risk in RBS– Answer the questions
• What characteristics describe each term in descriptive rating labels (both event probability and impact on objectives)?
• What procedure must be used to combine probability and impact scores into risk levels?
Definition of risk level classification
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Probability Model: Organization, Resources*Probability Model: Organization, ResourcesProbability Model: Organization, Resources**
Probability Model - OrganizationDescriptive
Rating Basis: Resources, Flexibility Obtaining Probability Rating
Very Low Common skill sets plentiful 1
Low Experienced with current effort identified and available 2
Moderate Competition among organization’s projects but informal moves possible 3
High Internal requisition process only option 4
Very High Redeployment among projects never an option, only new hires 5
* From RBS example
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Qualitative Risk LevelsQualitative Risk LevelsQualitative Risk Levels
Probability and Impact MatrixProbabilityRating
5 5 10 15 20 25
4 4 8 12 16 20
3 3 6 9 12 15
2 2 4 6 8 10
1 1 2 3 4 51 2 3 4 5
Impact RatingP (x) I
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Qualitative Output: Ranked RisksQualitative Output: Ranked RisksQualitative Output: Ranked Risks
Visual scorecard of risks in groups for responsePrioritize allocation of scarce resourcesDecision gate – refer some risks to quantitative analysisIndividual risks only – cannot aggregate with qualitative
Risk Ranking Scorecard Condition
High RED
Moderate YELLOW
Low GREEN
Response Action Rule
Actively manage; include in baseline plan
Actively manage; some discretion in timing using contingency plans
Team level action; put on watch list
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Quantitative Risk Analysis FrameworkQuantitative Risk Analysis FrameworkQuantitative Risk Analysis Framework
Integrated approach to analyzing riskBuilds on data collected in way to calibrate uncertaintyLogic network of activities and tasks is model of projectIntegrated model used to test alternative response plans
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Quantitative Risk AnalysisQuantitative Risk AnalysisQuantitative Risk Analysis
Considers all risks simultaneously – provides a measure of overall project riskData gathering tools and techniques– Risk interviews – generally for 3-point estimates – Probability distributions represent uncertainty
Analysis tools and techniques– Sensitivity analysis– Expected monetary value– Decision tree analysis– “Monte Carlo” simulation of network logic, spreadsheet models
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Input valid Critical Path Method (CPM) essentialInterview processThree point estimates– Pessimistic (Pess)– Optimistic (Opt)– Most Likely (ML)
Not all activities (tasks) will occur as planned– Test, Fail, Fix, Re-test, Pass
Estimating Ranges and Uncertain PathsEstimating Ranges and Uncertain PathsEstimating Ranges and Uncertain Paths
PessOpt
ML
Time
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Reality – Some paths are uncertainReality Reality –– Some paths are uncertainSome paths are uncertain
10% PROBABILITY
Probabilistic Branch
START
*
2 4
5 8
1 3 6
7
9A10
END
90%
10% 9B
6 CONDUCTINSPECTION
*
FAILINSPEC
DIAGNOSECORRECTREPEAT
PASSINSPEC
90% PROBABILITY 10
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Multiple Paths Likely to Become Critical Multiple Paths Likely to Become Critical Multiple Paths Likely to Become Critical
Which tasks/activities are they?– Under what conditions are they likely to behave differently?– Can we identify them in advance?– Is it possible to calibrate them to show their relative chances of
appearing on a critical path?Can something be done to reduce the likelihood and/or impact of threats?Can something be done to increase the likelihood and/or impact of opportunities?Quantitative project risk analysis can answer these questions.
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Monte Carlo Simulation ResultsMonte Carlo Simulation ResultsMonte Carlo Simulation Results
Compares results against targetsProvides calibrated likelihood of achieving datesCan be compared with alternate scenariosAggregates impacts and probabilities of all risksCan include sophisticated logic (branches, decisions, contingency plans, conditional paths)Several valid tools are commercially available, off the shelf today
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Quantitative Cost Risk Analysis - InputQuantitative Cost Risk Analysis Quantitative Cost Risk Analysis -- InputInput
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Quantitative Cost Risk Analysis: OutputQuantitative Cost Risk Analysis: OutputQuantitative Cost Risk Analysis: Output Distribution for Total Pipeline / Cost
Risk/J22
Valu
es in
10
-3
Values in Thousands
012345678
Mean=1477.962
1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.71.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7
5% 90% 5% 1.3971 1.5569
Mean=1477.962
Distribution for Total Pipeline / CostRisk/J22
Values in Thousands
0.000
0.200
0.400
0.600
0.800
1.000
Mean=1477.962
1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.71.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7
5% 90% 5% 1.3971 1.5569
Mean=1477.962
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Risk Response PlanningRisk Response PlanningRisk Response Planning
After evaluating the risks, assessing their impact and probability of occurrence, prioritizing the risks in their order of importance, we must decide what to do about them.The process of developing the procedures and techniques to enhance opportunities and reduce threatsto the project’s objectives.
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Risk Response Strategies Applicable to Threats, Opportunities, Both
Risk Response Strategies Risk Response Strategies Applicable to Threats, Opportunities, BothApplicable to Threats, Opportunities, Both
ThreatAvoidTransferMitigate
OpportunityExploitShareEnhance
Both Threats and OpportunitiesAccept (with contingency reserve)Contingent Response
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Avoidance - by changing the project plan or the nature of the project.Transfer - to another party to eliminate the risk from impacting the projectMitigation – actively try to reduce probability or impact of the risk to a point where the risk can be acceptedAcceptance– Active – contingency plan to deal with risk if and when it occurs.– Passive – ignore, roll dice, hope, play Powerball, update resume
Opportunities– Seek ways to enhance chances of success
Response StrategiesResponse Strategies
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Risk Monitoring, Control: Ongoing TaskRisk Monitoring, Control: Ongoing TaskRisk Monitoring, Control: Ongoing Task
The process of keeping track– All identified risks– Identify new risks as their presence becomes known – Assess residual, secondary risks that occur when the risk
response plans implementedReassess risks periodically, focus on trigger pointsContinuously execute the risk management cycleMeasure the health of the data, cycle times, age of actions, sensitivity of alert systems
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Remember - Risk definition for our purposesRemember Remember -- Risk definition for our purposesRisk definition for our purposes
Project Risk. . . is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on at least one project objective, such as time, cost, scope, or quality . . . . . . and is defined by two attributes, likelihood of occurrence
and impact if it occurs . . .- PMBOK® Guide, Project Management Institute, Third ed., 2004
Probability (x) Impact or P (x) IUse this fundamental relationship often.
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One More Time: Why Manage Risk?One More Time: Why Manage Risk?One More Time: Why Manage Risk?
Protect the project objectivesProvide early warnings while there is time to actContinuously apply risk management for successClarity of purpose – everyone on the team understands the value of their input in an environment that encourages openness and trusts their judgment
Preserve project objectives from negative impacts and enhance performance by actively searching for opportunities.
Preserve project objectives from negative impacts and enhance performance by actively searching for opportunities.
TwinSPINUniversity of Minnesota
March 2, 2006
TwinSPINTwinSPINUniversity of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota
March 2, 2006March 2, 2006
Project Risk ManagementSome Very Good Practices
Keith D. Hornbacher, MBAHornbacher Associates
Direct: 952.891.3579 Fax: [email protected]
Project Risk ManagementProject Risk ManagementSome Very Good PracticesSome Very Good Practices
Keith D. Hornbacher, MBAKeith D. Hornbacher, MBAHornbacher AssociatesHornbacher Associates
Direct: 952.891.3579 Fax: 952.891.1099Direct: 952.891.3579 Fax: [email protected]