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Transcript of Project Report on Credit Rating - Copy
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PROJECT REPORT ON
WORKING AND MANIPULATION OF CREDIT RATING IN INDIA
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1. Declaration
2. Introduction
3. Executive summary
4. Sector overview
5. Literature review
6. Objectives and need for the study
7. Types of credit rating
8. Factors involved in credit rating
9. Credit rating process
10. Rating methodology
A. Business risk analysis
B. Financial analysis
C. management evaluation
D. geographical analysis
E. regulatory and competitive environment
F. fundamental analysis
11. Rating Criteria
A. Rating Criteria Commercial Banks
B. Rating Criteria Financial Institutions
C. Rating Criteria Life Insurance Companies
D. Rating Criteria General Insurance Companies
E. Rating Criteria Manufacturing Companies
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F. Rating Criteria Telecom Companies
G. Rating Criteria Corporate
H. Rating Criteria Securitizations
11. Credit rating companies in India
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INTRODUCTION
The account information compiled by a credit information company incorporating there in
loan/s or credit card facilities availed from one or many banks/institutions, re-payment record,
current balance on each of the facility, new credit facilities obtained, number of new enquiries
from lenders., default/s in repayment of dues, suit filed information etc is referred to as credit
history of a borrower or a consumer.
A credit score is a number assigned by credit reporting companies based on information
available on credit report. Like a test score, the higher the score, the better your credit. A good
credit score shows that you have a high probability of repaying loans on time. Therefore, a
good credit score will help you take out loans more easily and even get better interest rates.
An assessment of the credit worthiness of a borrower in general terms or with respect to a
particular debt or financial obligation. A credit rating can be assigned to any entity that seeks to
borrow money – an individual, corporation, state or provincial authority, or sovereign
government. Credit assessment and evaluation for companies and governments is generally
done by a credit rating agency such as Standard & Poor’s or Moody’s. These rating agencies are
paid by the entity that is seeking a credit rating for itself or for one of its debt issues. For
individuals, credit ratings are derived from the credit history maintained by credit-reporting
agencies such as Equifax, Experian and trans Union.
Credit ratings for borrowers are based on substantial due diligence conducted by the rating
agencies. While a borrower will strive to have the highest possible credit rating since it has a
major impact on interest rates charged by lenders, the rating agencies must take a balanced
and objective view of the borrower’s financial situation and capacity to service/repay the debt.
The credit rating has an inverse relationship with the possibility of debt default. In the opinion
of the rating agency, a high credit rating indicates that the borrower has a low probability of
defaulting on the debt; conversely, a low credit rating suggests a high probability of default.
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Credit rating agencies typically assign letter grades to indicate ratings. Standard & Poor’s, for
instance, has a credit rating scale ranging from AAA (excellent) and AA+ all the way to C and D.
A debt instrument with a rating below BBB- is considered to be speculative grade or a junk
bond.
Credit rating changes can have a significant impact on financial markets. A prime example of
this effect is the adverse market reaction to the credit rating downgrade of the U.S. federal
government by Standard & Poor’s on August 5, 2011. Global equity markets plunged for weeks
following the downgrade.
For individuals, the credit rating is conveyed by means of a numerical credit score that is
maintained by Equifax, Experian and other credit-reporting agencies. A high credit score
indicates a stronger credit profile and will generally result in lower interest rates charged by
lenders.
A credit rating is an evaluation of the credit worthiness of a debtor, especially
a business (company) or a government, but not individual consumers. The evaluation is made
by a credit rating agency of the debtor's ability to pay back the debt and the likelihood
of default. Evaluations of individuals credit worthiness is known as credit reporting and done
by credit bureaus, or consumer, which issue credit scores.
Credit ratings are determined by credit ratings agencies. The credit rating represents the credit
rating agency's evaluation of qualitative and quantitative information for a company or
government; including non-public information obtained by the credit rating agencies' analysts.
Credit ratings are not based on mathematical formulas Instead, credit rating agencies use their
judgment and experience in determining what public and private information should be
considered in giving a rating to a particular company or government. The credit rating is used
by individuals and entities that purchase the bonds issued by companies and governments to
determine the likelihood that the government will pay its bond obligations.
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A poor credit rating indicates a credit rating agency's opinion that the company or government
has a high risk of defaulting, based on the agency's analysis of the entity's history and analysis
of long term economic prospects.
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Executive summary
Credit rating agencies are placed as intermediate between investors and issuers of fixed
income securities. Their most important role is to minimize the existence of asymmetric
information in the marketplace. The role is central in operating the financial markets. The
globalization process and development of complex financial products has provided the credit
rating agencies with a tremendous power.
Despite the powerful position, is the credit rating industry subject to very weak regulation. The
credit rating agencies are by them self supposed to manage potential pitfalls in the rating
process and rating system. They are said to be self-controlled as no authority control how the
agencies manage to avoid potential pitfalls. The weak regulation and self-control provides the
agencies with a high level of freedom.
The mixture of power and freedom is a dangerous combination, if not managed well. The
agencies need to be fully aware of the responsibilities that naturally follow power and freedom.
If they don’t act as a responsible intermediate and perform trustworthy, the market will lose its
faith to the system.
The credit rating agencies have through the years been subject to criticism in relation to the
management of their responsibility. The criticism has evolved in the wrong direction after focus
had been pointed to the agencies role in the corporate scandals of Enron, WorldCom and
Pharmalat. The criticism has reached a new high level under the current financial crisis. Many
players at the financial scene look upon the credit rating agencies as a direct scapegoat of the
current crisis. The criticism has been concentrated on numerous conflicts of interest and the
dependence of issuers.
It is expected that the criticism have a negative influence on the image of the credit rating
agencies and the investor’s confidence in the credit rating system. The credit rating agencies
can only exist if they have a strong reputation and enjoy great confidence. The credit rating
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agencies has realized the problem and declared that improvements are needed to restore the
confidence and image.
This situation motivates an investigation of the nature of the criticism and the influence on
investor’s reactions on changes in long-term corporate credit rating. Have the investors as a
result of low confidence ignored the changes or are they reacting on information from criticized
credit rating agencies. Agencies who, by them self, have admitted the many problems the critics
have pointed out.
The main findings reveal that investors only react significant on downgrades during the current
crisis. There is no significant reaction in the months before the crisis. This is seen as an expected
result of the criticism and an erosion of the investors trust in the credit rating system. The
sudden reaction during the crisis is much more significant, than results in earlier studies. The
investor reaction measured as negative abnormal stock returns can be characterized as a
“panic-drop”. It is believed to be a psychological reaction and not a sudden rebuild trust in the
credit rating system. In the case of upgrades, no significant reaction was found.
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CONCEPT OF CREDIT RATING
Ratings, usually expressed in alphabetical symbols, are a simple and easily understood tool
enabling the investor to differentiate between instruments on the basis of their credit quality.
Credit rating is the symbolic indicator of the current opinion of the service debt obligations in a
timely fashion with specific reference to the instrument being rated. It is focused on
communicating to investors the relative ranking of the different loss probability for a given
fixed income investment, in comparison with other rated instruments.
The term “Credit Rating” comprises two words: “credit” and “rating”. Credit is trust in a
person’s ability and intention to pay or reputation of solvency and honesty. Rating means to
classify a person’s position with reference to a particular subject matter. In other words, credit
is an act of assigning values by estimating worth or reputation of solvency and honesty so as to
repose trust in a person’s ability and intention to repay. Thus, credit rating could be defined as
an expression of an opinion through symbols about credit quality of the issuer of securities or
company with reference to sell that security. It provides risk which is one of the several factors
in investor decision making. It does not indicate market risk or forecast future market price. It is
always a specific evaluation done for a particular instrument. The rating process is itself based
on certain “givens”. The agency, for instance, does not perform an audit. Instead its required
information and opinion provided by the issuer and collected by analysts from different
sources, including personal interaction with various entities. In determining rating, both
quantitative and qualitative analyses are employed. The judgment is qualitative it nature and
the use of quantitative analysis is to make the best possible overall qualitative judgment
because ultimately the rating is an opinion.
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LITERATURE REVIEW
Credit rating serves as a valuable input in the decision-making process of different participants
in the capital market including regulators, issuers and investors. Therefore, it has been
attracting the attention of thinkers in the field of finance to study various dynamics of this fast
emerging subject. Various studies have been conducted in India as well as in different parts of
the world by different bodies and individuals and thus contributing a lot to explore new insights
into the concept of credit rating. The area of concern of the studies conducted so far has been
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mainly to find out the relevance of credit rating in the Indian context as well as at the global
level and the extent of awareness among the investors, about the concept of credit rating. The
present chapter provides a brief review of the research studies conducted on credit rating at
the national and international level.
Czarnitzki and Kraft (2007), in their study, tested whether the credit ratings give more specific
information about creditworthiness of the firms as compared to the publicly available
information (which is available to the potential investors without any substantial cost). They
selected a sample of about 8000 firms of German manufacturing sector for the purpose of
study and the time period of study was 1999-00.They compared the ratings given by leading
German credit rating agency „Credit Reform‟ with the publicly available information. The study
revealed that the young firms were more likely to default than the established ones. Further,
the lower the productivity the more would be the probability of default. They further inferred
that credit rating has some additional informational value for lenders but the rating agencies
overemphasized the factor „firm size‟ in construction of rating index.
Jain and Sharma (2008), in their paper, attempted to examine the working of credit rating
agencies in the light of role played by them in the capital market as information disseminators.
The authors identified conflicts of interest affecting the rating decisions and the manner in
which the regulations have attempted to address them. Further, they also studied the
regulatory framework for credit rating agencies in India. The authors revealed that credit rating
agencies play a central role in the capital markets through their informed and independent
analysis. The various conflicts of interest highlighted in the study were relating to the fee
charged, ancillary services of credit rating agencies, ownership interest of credit rating agencies
in client securities and the problem of notching. The study highlighted that despite the
significant role played by credit rating agencies in capital markets, they are not properly
regulated as not much responsibility is put on them in respect of their rating actions. Further, in
the Indian context too, the authors revealed certain loopholes in the regulatory system of credit
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rating agencies. These included deficient disclosure regime, lack of private enforcement regime,
management conflict of interest and lack of rules for structured finance ratings, which need to
be corrected in a proper and timely manner.
Reddy and Gowda (2008), in their paper, explained the importance and problems of credit
rating in India. They also highlighted the basis of credit rating and credit rating practices
prevalent in India. For this purpose, the opinions of sample of investors from Hyderabad were
taken. The results of the study inferred that majority of the respondents were aware of the
existence of various credit rating agencies including CRISIL, CARE, ICRA, etc. About 40 per cent
(80 out of 200) of the respondents depend on credit rating for their investment in debt
instrument but more than 50 percent from them (94 out of 180) rely on CRISIL for their
investment than the other credit rating agencies. The study worked out that though there is
confusion among various investors due to existence of more than one credit rating agency but
majority of them are satisfied with the guidance of credit rating agencies.
Bhattacharyya (2009), in her paper, evaluated the issuer rating system in India with special
reference to ICRA‟s issuer rating model, since ICRA introduced the issuer rating services in India
in 2005. The author identified various quantitative variables having major impact on the issuer
rating along with their relative importance with the help of discriminant analysis. The time
period of the study is from the date when the issuer rating started in 2005 to March 2008 and
the sample consists of 17 companies which have been rated by ICRA during this period. The
study highlighted that out of the ten variables being used by ICRA for issuer rating the PBIT &
Debt plus net worth ratio, current ratio and net sales growth rate play an important role but the
qualitative factors can also affect the ratings at any time.
Bheemanagauda and Madegowda (2010) made an attempt to evaluate the performance of
credit rating agencies in India including CRISIL, ICRA, CARE and FITCH. Secondary data relating
to long-term debt instruments from time period 2000-08 has been used for the purpose of the
study. The analysis of the study brings out that during the given period there is a substantial
increase in the rating business in India. During the study period, the maximum percentage of
instruments rated is assigned the investment grade rating. As far as rating revisions are
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quality, competitive position of the issuer and commitment to new projects etc. A detailed analysis of
the past financial statements is made to assess the performance and to estimate the future earnings.
The company’s ability to service the debt obligations over the tenure of the instrument being rated is
also evaluated. In fact, it is the relative comfort level of the issuer to service obligations that
determine the rating.
While assessing the instrument, the following are the main factors that are analyzed into detail by the
credit rating agencies.
1. Business Risk Analysis
2. Financial Analysis
3. Management Evaluation
4. Geographical Analysis
5. Regulatory and Competitive Environment
6. Fundamental Analysis
I. Business Risk AnalysisBusiness risk analysis aims at analyzing the industry risk, market position of the company, operating
efficiency and legal position of the company. This includes an analysis of industry risk, market position
of the company, operating efficiency of the company and legal position of the company.
a. Industry risk: The rating agencies evaluates the industry risk by taking into consideration various
factors like strength of the industry prospect, nature and basis of competition, demand and supply
position, structure of industry, pattern of business cycle etc. Industries compete with each other on
the basis of price, product quality, distribution capabilities etc. Industries with stable growth in
demand and flexibility in the timing of capital outlays are in a stronger position and therefore enjoybetter credit rating.
b. Market position of the company: Rating agencies evaluate the market standing of a company taking
into account:
i. Percentage of market share
ii. Marketing infrastructure
iii. Competitive advantages
iv. Selling and distribution channel
v. Diversity of products
vi. Customers base
vii. Research and development projects undertaken to Identify obsolete products
viii. Quality Improvement programs etc.
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c. Operating efficiency: Favorable location advantages, management and labor relationships, cost
structure, availability of raw-material, labor, compliance to pollution control programs, level of capital
employed and technological advantages etc. affect the operating efficiency of every issuer company
and hence the credit rating.
d. Legal position: Legal position of a debt instrument is assessed by letter of offer containing terms of
issue, trustees and their responsibilities, mode of payment of interest and principal in time, provision
for protection against fraud etc.
e. Size of business: The size of business of a company is a relevant factor in the rating decision.
Smaller companies are more prone to risk due to business cycle changes as compared to larger
companies. Smaller companies operations are limited in terms of product, geographical area and
number of customers. Whereas large companies