CARBON BANK

Background

In the recent time the world economies have grown at an incredible rate with spurt in

technological innovations. This growth has lead to rise in manufacturing especially in

the BRIC

(Brazil, Russia, India, china)

Countries. With the growing industrialization, there has been an increase in

energy consumption globally. This growth has lead to increase in green house gases

including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride.

According to one study, 60-70% of Green House Gases emission is through fuel

combustion in industries like cement, steel, textiles and fertilizers. Science has

correlated climate over the ages with core samples from ice sheets and found that

carbon dioxide levels fluctuate with climatic events. Only recently has science been

able to understand how this CO2 actually works to trap the heat in the atmosphere

and by calling it the greenhouse effect gives us the basic understanding of what goes

on.

These gases are released as by-products of certain industrial process, which

adversely affect the ozone layer, leading to global warming.

These harmful gases have lead to various environmental imbalances. Melting

glaciers, freak storms and stranded polar bears which have been witnessed in recent

times playing the mascots of climate change affecting our planet.

More fuel to fire

According to “The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007”

assessment report said world temperatures are likely to rise between 1.1 to

6.4 degrees Celsius by 2100, triggering more frequent floods, droughts,

melting of icecaps and threatening species extinction.

An estimated 30 per cent of the world’s total greenhouse emissions in 1997

came from wildfires in Borneo, which destroyed one million hectares of

forests.

Worldwide carbon dioxide emissions in 2005 are estimated to be slightly more

than 24 billion tonnes. Every litre of gasoline or petrol used in motor vehicles

produces 2.4 kilograms of carbon dioxide emissions. For diesel fuel, every liter

produces 2.7 kilograms carbon dioxide.

The World Health Organization has estimated that climate change leads to

more than 150,000 deaths every year and at least 5 million cases of illness.

Global sea levels will increase by 11 to 13 inches by 2100, according to 2006

estimates by Australia's science research agency CSIRO.

Ten countries account for two-thirds of global forest area, according to the UN

Food and Agriculture Organization: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, The

Democratic Republic of Congo, India, Indonesia, Peru, Russia and United

States.

The Earth’s carbon absorbing capacity is finite and delectable and that growth

of GHG emissions, even at their present level poses a threat to humankind.

The per capita GHG emission is strongly correlated with economic prosperity.

Further, it is recognized that without increase in GHG emissions or access to

appropriate alternative technology options, developing countries would not be

able to pursue their socio-economic goals. Kyoto Protocol is a global

cooperative attempt to address both these issues.

Thus, fear of increased sea level and lower agricultural yield have made people

around the world to want to reduce consumption and lower their personal shares of

global emissions. With growing concerns among nations to curb pollution levels while

maintaining the growth in their economic activities, the emission trading (ET)

industry has come to life. Thus, the conception of Kyoto Protocol was formed.

The Kyoto Protocol

Concept

The Kyoto Protocol is a protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on

Climate Change (UNFCCC or FCCC), an international environmental treaty produced

at the United Nations Conference on to achieve "stabilization of greenhouse gas

concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous

anthropogenic interference with the climate system."

Purpose

The Kyoto Protocol is established to legally bind for the reduction of four greenhouse

gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride), and two groups

of gases (hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons) produced by "Annex I"

(industrialized) nations, as well as general commitments for all member countriesThe

agreement aims to lower overall emissions from a group of six greenhouse gases by

2008-12, calculated as an average over these five years. Cuts in the three most

important gases - carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N20) -

will be measured against a base year of 1990. Cuts in three long-lived industrial

gases - hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), [[perfluorocarbon]s (PFCs), and sulphur

hexafluoride (SF6) - can be measured against either a 1990 or 1995 baseline." The

target agreed upon at the summit was an average reduction of 5.2% from 1990

levels by the year 2012.

National limitations range from 8% reductions for the European Union and some

others to 7% for the United States, 6% for Japan, and 0% for Russia. The treaty

permitted GHG emission increases of 8% for Australia and 10% for Iceland.

Members

As of January 2009, 183 parties have approved the protocol, which was initially have

been adopted for use on 11 December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan and which entered into

force on 16 February 2005.

Working

Kyoto initiated "flexible mechanisms" such as Emissions Trading, the Clean

Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation to allow Annex I economies to

meet their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission limitations through financial exchanges,

projects that reduce emissions in non-Annex I economies, from other Annex I

countries, or from Annex I countries with excess allowances.

Under Joint Implementation (JI) a developed country with relatively high costs

of domestic greenhouse reduction would set up a project in another

developed country.

Under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) a developed country can

'sponsor' a greenhouse gas reduction project in a developing country where

the cost of greenhouse gas reduction project activities is usually much lower,

but the atmospheric effect is globally equivalent. The developed country

would be given credits for meeting its emission reduction targets, while the

developing country would receive the capital investment and clean

technology or beneficial change in land use.

Under International Emissions Trading (IET) countries can trade in the

international carbon credit market to cover their shortfall in allowances.

Countries with surplus credits can sell them to countries with capped emission

commitments under the Kyoto Protocol.

In real this means that Non-Annex I economies have no GHG emission restrictions,

but have financial incentives to develop GHG emission reduction projects to receive

"carbon credits" that can then be sold to Annex I buyers, encouraging sustainable

development. In addition, the flexible mechanisms allow Annex I nations with

efficient, low GHG-emitting industries, and high prevailing environmental standards

to purchase carbon credits on the world market instead of reducing greenhouse gas

emissions domestically. Annex I entities typically will want to acquire carbon credits

as cheaply as possible, while Non-Annex I entities want to maximize the value of

carbon credits generated from their domestic Greenhouse Gas Projects.

What is Carbon credit?

The Kyoto Protocol has created a mechanism under which countries that have been

emitting more carbon and other gases (greenhouse gases include ozone, carbon

dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and even water vapour) have voluntarily decided

that they will bring down the level of carbon they are emitting to the levels of early

1990s.

Thus,Carbon credit can be defined as a permit that allows the holder to emit one ton

of carbon dioxide. Credits are awarded to countries or groups that have reduced

their green house gases below their emission quota. Carbon credits can be traded in

the international market at their current market price.

Developed countries, mostly European will bring down the level in the period from

2008 to 2012. In 2008, these developed countries have decided on different norms to

bring down the level of emission fixed for their companies and factories.

A company has two ways to reduce emissions. One, it can reduce the GHG

(greenhouse gases) by adopting new technology or improving upon the existing

technology to attain the new norms for emission of gases. Or it can tie up with

developing nations and help them set up new technology that is eco-friendly, thereby

helping developing country or its companies 'earn' credits.India, China and some

other Asian countries have the advantage because they are developing countries.

Any company, factories or farm owner in India can get linked to United Nations

Framework Convention on Climate Change and know the 'standard' level of carbon

emission allowed for its outfit or activity.

They are key component of national and international attempts to mitigate the

growth in concentrations' of greenhouse gases (GHGs).

There are two distinct types of Carbon Credits: Carbon Offset Credits (COC's) and

Carbon Reduction Credits (CRC's). Carbon Offset Credits consist of clean forms of

energy production, wind, solar, hydro and biofuels.

Carbon Reduction Credits consists of the collection and storage of Carbon from

atmosphere through reforestation, forestation, ocean and soil collection and storage

efforts. Both approaches are recognized as effective ways to reduce the Global

Carbon Emissions crises.

How It Works

Emissions limits and trading rules vary country by country, so each emissions-

trading market operates differently.

For nations that have signed the Kyoto Protocol, which holds each country to

its own C02 limit, greenhouse gas-emissions trading is mandatory.

Another fast-growing voluntary model is carbon offsets. In this global market, a set of

middlemen companies, called offset firms, estimate a company’s emissions and then

act as brokers by offering opportunities to invest in carbon-reducing projects around

the world. Unlike carbon trading, offsetting isn’t yet government regulated in most

countries; it’s up to buyers to verify a project’s environmental worth.

Offsets are typically achieved through financial support of projects that reduce the

emission of greenhouse gases in the short- or long-term. The most common project

type is renewable energy, such as wind farms, biomass energy, or hydroelectric

dams. Others include energy efficiency projects, the destruction of industrial

pollutants or agricultural byproducts, destruction of landfill methane, and forestry

projects. Some of the most popular carbon offset projects from a corporate

perspective are energy efficiency and wind turbine projects.

The Advantages

Companies in different industries face different costs to lower their emissions.

A market-based approach allows companies to take carbon-reducing

measures that everyone can afford.

Reducing emissions and lowering energy consumption is usually good for the

core business.

Buying into the carbon market boom now suggests significant dividends later

on. Carbon credits are relatively cheap now, but their value will likely rise,

giving companies another reason to participate.

The Disadvantages

As with any financial market, emissions traders are vulnerable to significant

risk and volatility.

Carbon offset firms in the United States and abroad has been caught selling

offsets for normal operations that do not actually take any additional C02 out

of the atmosphere, such as pumping C02 into oil wells to force out the

remaining crude.

The lack of offset regulations has also made marketing problematic.

How buying carbon credits can reduce emissions

Carbon credits create a market for reducing greenhouse emissions by giving a

monetary value to the cost of polluting the air. Emissions become an internal cost of

doing business and are visible on the balance sheet alongside raw materials and

other liabilities or assets.

For example, consider a business that owns a factory putting out 90,000 tonnes of

greenhouse gas emissions in a year. Its government is an Annex I country that enacts

a law to limit the emissions that the business can produce. So the factory is given a

quota of say 70,000 tonnes per year. The factory either reduces its emissions to

80,000 tonnes or is required to purchase carbon credits to offset the excess. After

costing up alternatives the business may decide that it is uneconomical or infeasible

to invest in new machinery for that year. Instead it may choose to buy carbon credits

on the open market from organizations that have been approved as being able to sell

legitimate carbon credits.

We should consider the impact of manufacturing alternative energy sources. For

example, the energy consumed and the Carbon emitted in the manufacture and

transportation of a large wind turbine would prohibit a credit being issued for a

predetermined period of time.

One seller might be a company that will offer to offset emissions through a

project in the developing world, such as recovering methane from a swine

farm to feed a power station that previously would use fossil fuel. So although

the factory continues to emit gases, it would pay another group to reduce the

equivalent of 20,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions from the atmosphere

for that year.

Another seller may have already invested in new low-emission machinery and

have a surplus of allowances as a result. The factory could make up for its

emissions by buying 20,000 tonnes of allowances from them. The cost of the

seller's new machinery would be subsidized by the sale of allowances. Both

the buyer and the seller would submit accounts for their emissions to prove

that their allowances were met correctly.

Carbon Tax as a supplement to Emissions Cap & Trade

At present, emissions cap & trade is the principal international policy framework

providing incentives to mitigate the impact of global warming. Emissions cap & trade

refers to the global system of national caps on greenhouse-gas emissions and

tradable permits (e.g. Carbon credits), based on the emissions targets and timetables

created by the Kyoto Protocol (1997).

Today, one of the hottest and most contested debates is the validity of emissions cap

& trade versus the validity of emission tax. It is argued that emission taxes have an

important advantage over cap-and-trade systems in that they result in a stable price

for emissions (cap-and-trade policies seek to stabilize the quantity of emissions, but

allow prices to fluctuate). Stable prices for emissions are critical for firms making

long-term decisions about investment and innovation in low-emission technologies.

However, given the practical impediments to the internationalization of emissions or

carbon taxes, a more likely scenario seems to be one where national level initiatives

on carbon taxes could supplement the international cap and trade system.

Carbon credits V/s Carbon taxes

A criticism of tax-raising schemes is that they are frequently not hypothecated, and

so some or all of the taxation raised by a government may be applied inefficiently or

not used to benefit the environment.

By treating emissions as a market commodity it becomes easier for business to

understand and manage their activities, while economists and traders can attempt to

predict future pricing using well understood market theories. Thus the main

advantages of a tradable carbon credit over a carbon tax are:

the price is more likely to be perceived as fair by those paying it. Investors in

credits have more control over their own costs.

the flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol ensure that all investment goes

into genuine sustainable carbon reduction schemes, through its

internationally-agreed validation process.

if correctly implemented a target level of emission reductions is achieved with

certainty, while under a tax the actual emissions would vary over time.

it provides a framework for rewarding people or companies who plant trees or

otherwise sequester carbon.

The advantages of a carbon tax are:

Fewer complexes, expensive, and time-consuming to implement. This

advantage is especially great when applied to markets like gasoline or home

heating oil.

Perhaps some reduced risk of certain types of cheating, though under both

credits and taxes, emissions must be verified.

Reduced incentives for companies to delay efficiency improvements prior to

the establishment of the baseline if credits are distributed in proportion to

past emissions.

When credits are grandfathered, this puts new or growing companies at a

disadvantage relative to more established companies.

It is clear what effect the policy has on the price of energy.

Theory of Supplementarity

The principle of Supplementarity within the Kyoto Protocol means that internal

reduction of emissions should take precedence before a country buys in carbon

credits.

However it also established the Clean Development Mechanism as a Flexible

Mechanism by which capped entities could develop real, measurable, permanent

emissions reductions voluntarily in sectors outside the cap.

Many criticisms of carbon credits stem from the fact that establishing that an

emission of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gas has truly been reduced involves a

complex process. This process has evolved as the concept of a carbon project has

been refined over the past 10 years.

The first step in determining whether or not a carbon project has legitimately led to

the reduction of real, measurable, permanent emissions understands the CDM

methodology process.

Theory of Additionality

The concept of additionality studies whether the project would is feasible even in the

absence of revenue from carbon credits. Only carbon credits from projects that are

"additional to" the business-as-usual scenario represent a net environmental benefit.

Carbon projects that yield strong financial returns even in the absence of revenue

from carbon credits; or that are compelled by regulations; or that represent common

practice in an industry are usually not considered additional, although a full

determination of additionality requires specialist review.

It is generally agreed that voluntary carbon offset projects must also prove

additionality in order to ensure the legitimacy of the environmental stewardship

claims resulting from the retirement of the carbon credit (offset). According the World

Resources Institute/World Business Council for Sustainable Development

(WRI/WBCSD) : "GHG emission trading programs operate by capping the emissions of

a fixed number of individual facilities or sources. Under these programs, tradable

'offset credits' are issued for project-based GHG reductions that occur at sources not

covered by the program.

Each offset credit allows facilities whose emissions are capped to emit more, in direct

proportion to the GHG reductions represented by the credit. The idea is to achieve a

zero net increase in GHG emissions, because each tonne of increased emissions is

'offset' by project-based GHG reductions.

The difficulty is that many projects that reduce GHG emissions (relative to historical

levels) would happen regardless of the existence of a GHG program and without any

concern for climate change mitigation. If a project 'would have happened anyway,'

then issuing offset credits for its GHG reductions will actually allow a positive net

increase in GHG emissions, undermining the emissions target of the GHG program.

Additionality is thus critical to the success and integrity of GHG programs that

recognize project-based GHG reductions."

Issues in Carbon mitigation:

Carbon market is not new to world, there are being several activities

prevailing since approx. 25 years but the most efficient mile stone in carbon market

was achieved in 2005 when EUETS & Kyoto came into existence. Although carbon

trading is the only sector which is growing at robust speed (having potential 60 to 70

billion USD annually) and covering whole world as united for its growth for mitigating

climate change, there are lots of issues existing which are left unexplored or if

explored than not much attention is being given, here I will be highlighting some

issues known to me which need immediate consideration for proper action.

1. Due to excessive non-sustainable consumption of resources and belching of

pollutants in environment, the temperature of world is increasing gradually

from several decades, as a result sea level is increasing due to melting of

glaciers, depletion of ozone layer but know the most alarming situation has

come according to NASA team on climate change, the life on earth will

finishes up by 2015 because now the blue ice have also started melting

which was as it is from last 10000 years having a terrible increase in sea level

and disturbing the ratio of land and water on earth and by 2015 water will

cover the left 30% land portion by it.

2. Continuity of Kyoto after 1st compliance period that is in Second Compliance

Period is not being confirmed in Bali action Plan & if it came into existence

than what about transfer of credit among them is not cleared which has

created lots of question mark on CDM and affecting its prices.

3. Non Availability of linkage between CITL & ITL (Community transaction log &

international transaction log). Hence no linkage between several schemes and

also non availability of spot transfer of Carbon credits among some major

schemes.

4. There is lot of Procedure delay in registering Project as CDM projects-

It can take between one and two years for a project to go from validation to

registration and technical delays. This does not even include the six months or

so that it is taking to book the services of a DOE. Project delays cost project

developers valuable financial resources, cost buyers valuable emission

reductions and can delay desired environmental outcomes. Clearing

bottlenecks and accelerating the application of necessary procedures has

become a priority challenge

5. Standard methodology for Jatropha CDM project is not available, hence

project developer wanting to develop CDM project by using Jatropha as a fuel

has to create a new methodology and get it approved by Executive board

which is very time consuming.

6. International events e.g., 2005 Gleneagles G8 Summit, 2006 World Cup,

football, Olympic emits carbon like on an average 5500 tons of CO2 is emitted

by Olympic Torch Rally, hence contributing to global warming considerably.

7. Soon India’s ICWA will be launching separate accounting standard for

Revenue from Carbon trading as up till now it is recorded under other income.

Therefore people are opposing that their income from carbon trading will no

more tax free.

8. New South Wales green house gas abetment scheme does not except

credits from other markets.

9. Sellers are unable to sell there CERs in adverse market condition as buyer

terminate the contract and all the losses have to be faced by CER project

developers.

10. SF6 have highest warming potential which is being leaked from power grids &

line hence must be protected

Shortcomings in the working of carbon market

The Kyoto mechanism is the only internationally-agreed mechanism for regulating

carbon credit activities, and, crucially, includes checks for additionality and overall

effectiveness. Its supporting organisation, the UNFCCC, is the only organisation with

a global mandate on the overall effectiveness of emission control systems, although

enforcement of decisions relies on national co-operation. The Kyoto trading period

only applies for five years between 2008 and 2012.

Several countries responsible for a large proportion of global emissions (notably USA,

Australia, and China) have avoided mandatory caps, which means that businesses in

capped countries may perceive themselves to be working at a competitive

disadvantage against those in uncapped countries as they are now paying for their

carbon costs directly.

Establishing a meaningful offset project is complex: voluntary offsetting activities

outside the CDM mechanism are effectively unregulated and there have been

criticisms of offsetting in these unregulated activities.

Suggestions to reduce carbon emission in Oil & Gas industries

Emissions in Environment from the oil and gas industry include substances that

contribute to global impacts on the climate and others that have local effects, such

as acidification of lakes and forests. The impacts of these emissions also take some

time to become apparent, which can make it difficult to identify them and link them

directly to oil and gas activities.

Estimating and reporting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is extremely complex for a

highly integrated industry such as the oil and natural gas industry with its wide

diversity of business structures under a corporate umbrella. The oil and gas industry

is the world’s second-biggest air emission producer. Each year it emits over 150

billion cubic meters of environmentally-damaging air emissions through venting,

flaring or fugitive leaks and is responsible for 300 millions tones of C02 emissions

being released into the atmosphere.

Now faced with the realities of consequential environmental damage, stricter

governmental emission legislations and reduction incentives, oil and gas companies

are looking for proven strategic and technical solutions that will minimize

environmental damage and maximize production and profit. There some major issues

on which oil and gas industries must take action.

Fire flaring in oil and gas industries have very adverse affect on environment they

have very high potential in polluting the environment so gas or fire flaring should be

prevent by managing proper supply of gas in line, preventing break down in system

and utilizing waste heat also this will prevent flaring. The practice of gas flaring adds

about 350 million tonnes of CO2e annually to global GHG emissions. The potential for

local economic development and for emission reduction is significant, if only there

were a way to create viable local markets for the gas, such as for power generation

or Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) for domestic cooking use. However, many barriers

exist as the example below demonstrates, and carbon finance has the potential to

help mitigate some of these risks.

Refinery emits huge GHG gases so they must prevent it to fullest extent, avoid

leakage from pipeline prevent heat wastage apply Euro 3 & 4 and get it audited for

environment safety.

Oil recovery: Carbon dioxide is used in enhanced oil recovery where it is injected into

or adjacent to producing oil wells, usually under supercritical conditions. It acts as

both a pressurizing agent and, when dissolved into the underground crude oil,

significantly reduces its viscosity, enabling the oil to flow more rapidly through the

earth to the removal well. In mature oil fields, extensive pipe networks are used to

carry the carbon dioxide to the injection points. Hence they must plant trees to

remove there CO2 excretion in environment.

Some Measures to prevent emission by Oil & Gas industries

Reducing Air Emissions in Oil & Gas is the region’s leading industry-focused

environmental event that features exclusive expert presentations and case studies

that reveal successful stories, procedures, solutions, technologies and strategies that

have not only effectively reduced emissions but have benefited production and

increased profits.

Create a long-term emission-reducing framework for future legislative

standards

Successfully incorporate technology that will reduce emission levels and

deliver instant ROI

Achieve zero routine, flaring and increased cost savings

Safely capture and store CO2 for the long-term

See increased production and profit through CO2 injection strategies

Create an effective business case for technological investment

Minimize the risk of fugitive leaks

Carbon market and India

The sudden boom in the carbon market has greatly helped Indian industries to cash

in on the carbon trading business. India certainly being the preferred location for

carbon credit buyers or project investors because of its strategic position in the world

today.

India is considered as the largest beneficiary, claiming about 31 per cent of the total

world carbon trade through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). It is expected

to rake in at least Rs 22,500 crore to Rs 45,000 crore over a period of time and Indian

companies are expected to corner at least 10 per cent of the global market in the

initial year. Carbon Trading has potential of exploring Indian market worth 18000 Cr.

Under the Kyoto Protocol, between 2008 and 2012, developed countries have to

reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to an average of 5.2 per cent below the 1990

level. They can also buy CERs from developing countries, which do not have any

reduction obligations, in case their industries are not in a position to lower the

emission levels themselves. One tonne of carbon dioxide reduced through the Clean

Development Mechanism (CDM) project, when certified by a designated entity,

becomes a tradable CER.

Developed countries have to spend nearly $300 to $500 for every tonne reduction in

CO2, against $10 to $25 to be spent by developing countries. In developing countries

like India, the emission levels are much below the target fixed by the Kyoto Protocol.

So, they are excluded from reduction of GHG emission. On the contrary, they are

entitled to sell surplus credits to developed countries. The European countries and

Japan are the major buyers of carbon credits.

The UNFCCC divides countries into two main groups: A total of 41 industrialized

countries are currently listed in the Convention‟s Annex-I, including the relatively

wealthy industrialized countries that were members of the Organization for Economic

Co-operation

India comes under the third category of signatories to UNFCCC. India signed and

ratified the Protocol in August, 2002 and has emerged as a world leader in reduction

of greenhouse gases by adopting Clean Development Mechanisms (CDMs) in the past

few years.

According to Report on National Action Plan for operationalizing Clean Development

Mechanism (CDM) by Planning Commission, Govt. of India, the total CO2-equivalent

emissions in 1990 were 10,01,352 Gg (Giga grams), which was approximately 3% of

global emissions. If India can capture a 10% share of the global CDM market, annual

CER revenues to the country could range from US$ 10 million to 300 million

(assuming that CDM is used to meet 10-50% of the global demand for GHG emission

reduction of roughly 1 billion tonnes CO2, and prices range from US$ 3.5-5.5 per

tonne of CO2). As the deadline for meeting the Kyoto Protocol targets draws nearer,

prices can be expected to rise, as countries/companies save carbon credits to meet

strict targets in the future. India is well ahead in establishing a full-fledged system in

operationalising CDM, through the Designated National Authority (DNA). Other than

Industries and transportation, the major sources of GHG‟s emission in India are as

follows:

Paddy fields

Enteric fermentation from cattle and buffaloes

Municipal Solid Waste

Of the above three sources the emissions from the paddy fields can be reduced

through special irrigation strategy and appropriate choice of cultivars; whereas

enteric fermentation emission can also be reduced through proper feed

management. In recent days the third source of emission i.e. Municipal Solid Waste

Dumping Grounds are emerging as a potential CDM activity despite being provided

least attention till date.

Outlook of carbon market

The total traded volume in global carbon markets in 2008 was 2.7 Gt, valued at just

over €40 bn. We expect this to grow to 4.2 billion tonnes CO2e in 2009, up 56

percent from 2008. The EU ETS maintains its position as the largest market. Traded

volume in the EU ETS is expected to be 2.6 Gt in 2009. At current prices, this would

be equivalent to €63bn.

The expected increasing traded volumes will continue as the global market becomes

more mature and sophisticated. An increase in contract types, more players and

markets and greater competition between market players (such as exchanges and

brokers) will together generate momentum for higher volumes. As a consequence,

liquidity providers will be attracted to this market. On the other hand, turbulence in

global financial markets may contribute to less vigorous growth in transacted

volumes.

The expected 2009 carbon market will differ from 2008 in several ways.

The EU ETS Phase 2 is considerably tighter than Phase 1. Moreover, the start

of short-term prompt trading for Phase 2, where only forward trading was

seen previously, is expected to contribute to increased traded volumes.

The EU climate and energy package, launched on 23 January 2009, has sent a

potentially bearish long-term signal to the project markets by placing

uncertainty on the future of the Clean Development Mechanism.

New policies in key countries such as the US and Australia imply that we will

see trading in new markets. This will be accelerated by the ongoing

negotiations under the Bali action plan.