Project ManagementProject...

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Islamic University, Gaza - Palestine

Chapter 10 Project Managementp Project Management


After complete studying this chapter, You should be able to

Ch10: What Is Project Management?

• Define key terms like Project, Project Management, • Discuss the main characteristics of a project,• Describe project management objectives,• Describe the project life cycle,• Diagram networks of project activities,• Estimate the completion time of a project,p p j ,• Apply Project-Planning and Control Techniques,• Define the different stages of any project,• Evaluate of CPM/PERT

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Types of Projects

GOAL

SOLUTION

Not Clear

Not ClearClear

GOAL

Clear TPM


Types of Projects

xPM

SOLUTION

Not Clear

Not ClearClear

MPx

APM

xPM

TPM

GOAL

Clear

Not Clear MPx

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What Is a Project?

• A project is “a temporary endeavor (effort) undertaken to create a unique product, service, or result.”*create a unique product, service, or result.

• Operations is work done to sustain the business.

• A project ends when its objectives have been reached, or the project has been terminated.

• Projects can be large or small and take a short or long time to complete

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time to complete.

*PMI, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge(PMBOK® Guide) (2004), p. 5.


Project Attributes

• A project: – Has a unique purposeHas a unique purpose.

– Is temporary.

– Is developed using progressive elaboration.

– Requires resources, often from various areas.

– Should have a primary customer or sponsor.

• The project sponsor usually provides the direction and

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p j p y pfunding for the project.– Involves uncertainty.

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Project Management Applications

• What is a project?Any unique endeavor with specific objectives– Any unique endeavor with specific objectives

– With multiple activities

– With defined precedent relationships

– With a specific time period for completion

• Examples?– A major event like a wedding

– Any construction project– Any construction project

– Designing a political campaign


Project Management Objective

• Achieve the project goalD t th i ti– Do a great thesis – on time

• Keep customers (e.g., Professors) happy• Keep the team focus on the goal • Make sure that team members work well• Everyone shares the load

Scope, Resources, Schedule & Customers

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Project Management and Project Life Cycle

What is Project Management?

Project management is “the application of knowledge, skills, tools and techniques to project activities to meet project requirements.”*

• Conception: identify the need (Start)

• Feasibility analysis or study: costs benefits, and risks

• Planning: who, how long, what to do?

• Execution: doing the project

• Termination: ending the project


The five stages of a project

A project management life cycle (PMLC) is a sequence

of processes that includes:of processes that includes:■ Scoping

■ Planning

■ Launching

■ Monitoring and controlling

■ Closing

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Characteristics of a Project

• A unique, one-time effort

• Requires the completion of a large number of interrelated activities

• Resources, such as time and/or money, are limited

• Typically has its own management structure


Project Management

• A project manager is appointed to head the project management team

• The team members are drawn from various departments and are temporarily assigned to the project

• The team is responsible for planning, scheduling and controlling the project to its completion

Plan Schedule Control

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Project Team

ProjectPlan Resources:

Update andRevise Plan

ManagementInformation

System

ProjectManager

ProjectTeam

InternalExec. Mgt.Marketing

EngineeringProduction

Qual. ControlHum. Res.

Purchasing

ProjectSchedule

ExternalSuppliers

Subcontract.Update

and Revise

Schedule


Planning Projects

• Tasks:– Develop internal and external resource requirements andDevelop internal and external resource requirements and

time-phase them to the project activities

• Means of Task Accomplishment:– Activity descriptions, milestone charts, cash flow charts,

CPM/PERT, engineering designs, time and cost estimates, material delivery plans, and so on.

• Timing of Tasks:Before project is begun and modified as required during– Before project is begun and modified as required during project

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Scheduling Projects

• Tasks:– Develop/revise detailed guides for each resource indicatingDevelop/revise detailed guides for each resource indicating

quantity, quality, and timing

• Means of Task Accomplishment:– Milestone charts for departments, subcontractors, and

suppliers; cash flow schedule; CPM/PERT: begin-activity and complete-activity dates, and updated activity slack

• Timing of Tasks:– Slightly before project is begun and continued throughout S g t y be o e p oject s begu a d co t ued t oug out

project


Controlling Projects

• Tasks:Sense noncompliance of resources with schedules– Sense noncompliance of resources with schedules, standards, and budgets; take corrective actions, shift resources, develop alternatives

• Means of Task Accomplishment:– Department budget reports, activity cost reports, quality

compliance reports, time performance reports

• Timing of Tasks:D i j t– During project

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Planning and Scheduling

MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

L t f iliti

Gantt ChartLocate new facilities

Interview staff

Hire and train staff

Select and order furniture

Remodel and install phones

Move in/startup


Scheduling and Control Charts

• Horizontal Bar Charts– A version of the Gantt chartA version of the Gantt chart

– Used to plan and schedule activities

– As the project progresses, the status of activities is plotted on the chart, compared to the plan, and, if necessary, corrective action is taken

– … more

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Scheduling and Control Charts

• Horizontal Bar Charts (cont.)

– Advantages

• Easy to understand• Easy to modify and update• Low cost

– Disadvantages

• Cumbersome for large project• Must be keep up to datep p• Does not indicate the relationships among the

activities


Horizontal Bar Chart

a. Prelim. Propulsion Design

Apr. May June July Aug.Project Activities

p gb. Prelim. Flight Sys. Designc. Static Tests Ad. Propulsion Design Modif.e. Static Tests Bf. Flight Tests Ag. Flight Sys. Design Modif.h. Flight Tests Bi. Mat’l & Component Costs

aacc

dd

bbee ff

j. Labor & Overheads Costs gg

dddd

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Network Planning Techniques

• Program Evaluation & Review Technique (PERT):Developed to manage the Polaris missile project– Developed to manage the Polaris missile project

– Many tasks pushed the boundaries of science & engineering (tasks’ duration = probabilistic)

• Critical Path Method (CPM):– Developed to coordinate maintenance projects in the

chemical industry

– A complex undertaking, but individual tasks are routine (tasks’ duration = deterministic)


Both PERT and CPM

• Graphically display the precedence relationships & sequence of

activities

• Estimate the project’s duration

• Identify critical activities that cannot be delayed without delaying

the project

• Estimate the amount of slack associated with non-critical

activities

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Critical Path Method (CPM)

• Designed to provide intense micro-control

• The system is dynamic; it continues to provide periodicThe system is dynamic; it continues to provide periodic reports as the project progresses


Manager’s View of CPM

INPUTS • List of project activitiesList of project activities• Precedence relationship among activities• Estimate of each activity’s duration

CPM processing procedures

OUTPUTS •• Estimated duration of project• Identification of critical activities• Amount of slack for each activity

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CPM Terminology

• Activity– A task or a certain amount of work required in the project– Requires time to complete– Represented by an arrow

• Dummy Activity– Indicates only precedence relationships– Does not require any time of effort

• Event– Signals the beginning or ending of an activity– Designates a point in time– Represented by a circle (node)


• Network– Shows the sequential relationships among activities using

CPM Terminology (cont.)

Shows the sequential relationships among activities using nodes and arrows

• Path– A connected sequence of activities leading from the starting

event to the ending event

• Critical PathThe longest path (time); determines the project duration– The longest path (time); determines the project duration

• Critical Activities– All of the activities that make up the critical path

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• Earliest Start (ES)– The earliest that an activity can begin; assumes all

CPM Terminology (cont.)

The earliest that an activity can begin; assumes all preceding activities have been completed

• Earliest Finish (EF)– ES + activity time

• Latest Finish (LF)– The latest that an activity can finish and not change the

project completion time

• Latest Start (LS)– LF - activity time


CPM Network Conventions

11a bII ca

1111IVIV

11a b

c

IIII

a cIIIIII

db

c

d

a

b33

22

11

VV

11

b

c

22a c

11b d

VIVI

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Steps in CPM Analysis

• Draw the CPM network– A graphic view of the relationships among the requiredA graphic view of the relationships among the required

activities

• Analyze the paths through the network– Determine the length of each path (the time required to

complete each path)

– Starting at the beginning of the network and working toward the end (from left to right), determine the ES and the EF for each activityeach activity

• Path analysis (continued)– Identify the critical path(s) (the longest path[s] through the

network)

– The critical path(s) determines how long the project will take. . . more


• Determine the slack for each activity

Steps in CPM Analysis

y– Working from the end of the project network (from right to

left), find the LF and the LS for each activity

– Compute the activity’s slack

slack = LS - ES = LF – EF

– Slack is the maximum amount of time that this activity can be delay in its completion before it becomes a critical activity, i e delays completion of the projecti.e., delays completion of the project

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CPM Example and Network

f, f, 1515

a, a, 66

b, b, 88

d, d, 1313

g, g, 1717 h, h, 99

ii, , 66

j, j, 1212

c, c, 55

e, e, 99


CPM Example

• Paths Enumerated

Path Length of Path

a-f-h 6 + 15 + 9 = 30

a-g-I 6 + 17 + 6 = 29

b-d-j 8 + 13 + 12 = 33*c-e-j 5 + 9 + 12 = 26

* Critical path

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CPM Example

ES and EF Times f, 15f, 15

h 9h 9a, 6a, 6

b, 8b, 8

d, 13d, 13

g, 17g, 17 h, 9h, 9

i, 6i, 6

j, 12j, 12

0 6

0 8

c, 5c, 5

e, 9e, 90 5


• ES and EF Timesf, 15f, 15

h 9h 9

6 21

CPM Example

a, 6a, 6

b, 8b, 8

d, 13d, 13

g, 17g, 17 h, 9h, 9

i, 6i, 6

j, 12j, 12

0 6

0 8

6 23

c, 5c, 5

e, 9e, 90 5

5 14

8 21

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• ES and EF Times f, 15f, 15

h 9h 9

6 21

CPM Example

a, 6a, 6

b, 8b, 8

d, 13d, 13

g, 17g, 17 h, 9h, 9

i, 6i, 6

j, 12j, 12

0 6

0 8

6 23 21 30

23 29

c, 5c, 5

e, 9e, 90 5

5 14

8 21 21 33

Project’s EF = Project’s EF = 3333


• LS and LF Timesh, 9h, 96 21

CPM Examplef, 15f, 15

a, 6a, 6

b, 8b, 8

d, 13d, 13

g, 17g, 17

i, 6i, 6

j, 12j, 12

0 6

0 88 21

6 23

21 30

23 2927 33

24 33

c, 5c, 5

e, 9e, 90 5

5 14

8 21 21 3321 33

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• LS and LF Timesh, 9h, 96 21

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a, 6a, 6

b, 8b, 8

d, 13d, 13

g, 17g, 17

i, 6i, 6

j, 12j, 12

0 6

0 88 21

6 23

21 30

23 294 10

0 8

27 33

10 27

24 33

18 24

c, 5c, 5

e, 9e, 90 5

5 14

8 21 21 330 8

7 12

12 21

21 338 21


• Slack

f, f, 1515f, f, 1515

h, 9h, 96 21 9 24

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a, 6a, 6

b, 8b, 8

d, 13d, 13

g, 17g, 17

i, 6i, 6

j, 12j, 12

0 6

0 88 21

6 23

21 30

23 293 9

0 8

27 33

10 27

24 33

9

3 4

3

4

0

c, 5c, 5

e, 9e, 90 55 14

8 21 21 330 8

7 12 12 21

21 338 21 0

77

0

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• Critical Pathf, 15f, 15

h 9h 9

CPM Example

a, 6a, 6

b, 8b, 8d, 13d, 13

g, 17g, 17 h, 9h, 9

i, 6i, 6

j, 12j, 12

c, 5c, 5

e, 9e, 9


Program Evaluation & Review Technique (PERT)

• The technique is based on the assumption that an ti it ’ d ti f ll b bilit di t ib tiactivity’s duration follows a probability distribution

instead of being a single value.

• The probabilistic information about the activities is translated into probabilistic information about the project.

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Single Point Estimate and Three Point Estimates

• Single Point Estimate– We take a single estimate per taskWe take a single estimate per task

• Three point Estimate– We take three estimates per task

• Optimistic Estimate – Best Case Scenario

• Pessimistic Estimate – Worst Case Scenario

• Most Likely Estimate

– Average the three estimates to get a three point estimate

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g g


Three-Point Estimates

• Instead of providing activity estimates as a discrete number, such as four weeks, it’s often helpful to create a , , pthree-point estimate:

– An estimate that includes an optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic estimate, such as three weeks for the optimistic, four weeks for the most likely, and five weeks for the pessimistic estimate.

• Three-point estimates are needed for PERT estimates.

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• Six point Estimates

• (PERT: Project Evaluation & Review Techniques)

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• Three point Estimate

Three-Point Estimate: Example

Three point Estimate Example:– Optimistic = 6 hours

– Pessimistic = 10 hours

– Most Likely = 8 hours

• The three point estimate is(6+10+8)/3 = 8 hours( )


Six-point Estimate (PERT)

– We take three estimates per task• Optimistic Estimate – Best Case Scenario

• Pessimistic Estimate – Worst Case Scenario

• Most Likely Estimate

– Multiply the Most Likely estimate by 4, add to the Optimistic and Pessimistic estimates and divide by 6

(Pert Estimate: E = (o + 4m + p) / 6 )

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Example:

Six-Point Estimate (PERT): Example

p– Optimistic = 6 hours

– Pessimistic = 10 hours

– Most Likely = 8 hours

• The six point estimate is(6+10+4x8)/6 = 8 hours


PERT

• Three time estimates are required to compute the parameters of an activity’s duration distribution:parameters of an activity s duration distribution:– pessimistic time (tp ) - the time the activity would take if

things did not go well

– most likely time (tm ) - the consensus best estimate of the activity’s duration

– optimistic time (to ) - the time the activity would take if things did go well

• More• . . . More

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• From these three time estimates about an activity, two probability distribution parameters are calculated: the

PERT

probability distribution parameters are calculated: the mean (te ) and the variance (Vt ).

te = ( to + 4tm + tp ) / 6

Vt = [ ( tp - to ) / 6 ] 2


Steps in PERT Analysis

• Draw the network.Draw the network.

• Analyze the paths through the network and find the critical path.

• The length of the critical path is the mean of the project duration probability distribution which is assumed to be normal.

• . . . more

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The standard de iation of the project d ration probabilit

Steps in PERT Analysis

The standard deviation of the project duration probability distribution is computed by adding the variances of the critical activities (all of the activities that make up the critical path) and taking the square root of that sum

• Probability computations can now be made using the normal distribution table.


PERT Example

Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic

Activity Im Precd Time (Hr ) Time (Hr ) Time (Hr )Activity Im.Precd. Time (Hr.) Time (Hr.) Time (Hr.)

A -- 4 6 8B -- 1 4.5 5C A 3 3 3D A 4 5 6 E A 0.5 1 1.5F B,C 3 4 5F B,C 3 4 5G B,C 1 1.5 5H E,F 5 6 7I E,F 2 5 8J D,H 2.5 2.75 4.5K G,I 3 5 7

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• PERT Network DD

PERT Example

AA

DD

CC

BB

EE

II

HH JJ

BBFF

GG

II KK


• Activity Expected Time and Variance

PERT Example

Activity Expected Time VarianceA 6 4/9B 4 4/9C 3 0D 5 1/9E 1 1/36F 4 1/9G 2 4/9G 2 4/9H 6 1/9I 5 1J 3 1/9K 5 4/9

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PERT Example


• Probability the project will be completed within 24 hours

Vpath = VA + VC + VF + VI + VK

PERT Example

= 4/9 + 0 + 1/9 + 1 + 4/9

= 2

path = 1.414

z = (24 - 23)/(24-23)/1.414 = .71

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• Probability the project will be completed within 24 hoursPERT Example

From the Standard Normal Distribution table: P(z < 71) = 5 + 2612 = 7612

..5000

..2612

P(z < .71) = .5 + .2612 = .7612

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Activity Cost-Time Tradeoffs

• Project managers may have the option or requirement to h th j t l t th l ti f thcrash the project, or accelerate the completion of the

project.

• This is accomplished by reducing the length of the critical path(s).

• The length of the critical path is reduced by reducing the duration of the activities on the critical path.

• more• . . . more

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• If each activity requires the expenditure of an amount of money to reduce its duration by one unit of time, then the

Activity Cost-Time Tradeoffs

project manager selects the least cost critical activity, reduces it by one time unit, and traces that change through the remainder of the network.

• As a result of a reduction in an activity’s time, a new critical path may be created.

• When there is more than one critical path each of the• When there is more than one critical path, each of the critical paths must be reduced.

• If the length of the project needs to be reduced further, the process is repeated.


Computer Software for Project Management

• Artemis Views (Artemis Management Systems)

• Fast Track Schedule (AEC Software)• Fast Track Schedule (AEC Software)

• Microsoft Project (Microsoft Corp.)

• Oracle Projects (Oracle Corp.)

• Power Project (ASTA Development)

• Primavera Project Planner (Primavera Systems)

• Super Project (Computer Associates International)

• Turbo Project (IMSI)

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Evaluation of CPM/PERT

• Activities are assumed to be independent.

• It is assumed that there is a precise breaking point where one activity ends and another begins.

• Initially-critical activities might not receive the attention they deserve until it is too late.

• Activity time estimates might be biased.

• The cost of CPM/PERT might not be justified by the value of the information it provides.

• Personnel might not understand the statistical underpinnings of PERT.


Wrap-Up: World-Class Practice

• The project organizations are flexible enough to respond aggressively to business opportunities.aggressively to business opportunities.

• Personnel are selected and trained to be flexible in moving from department to department and project to project as needed.

• Scheduling and control charts are frequently used because of their simplicity, flexibility , low cost, and effectiveness as communication devices.

• CPM PERT and PERT/Cost are also used to provideCPM, PERT, and PERT/Cost are also used to provide computerized activity-by-activity planning and control.

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