Project ManagementSession 5: Introduction to risk and qualityLast session for L3 studentsReview previous assignments

tara.lovejoy@chichester.ac.uk

Lunch Atop a Skyscraper, New York c.1932 Death-defying photographer, Charles C Ebbets (1905-1978) was as fearless as the vertigo-resistant construction workers he photographed. Casually dangling on the I-beams of New York skyscrapers

Today• Introduction to risk, quality and ensuring project impact (next

week – risk management)

• Review of the assignment requirements

• Look at previous assignments

By the end of the session, you will be able to:

1. Outline the main methods of identifying risk2. Use a range of tools and techniques for identifying risk3. Assess and mitigate risks4. Reflect on how to evaluate project impact5. Create risk registers to monitor and control risk

Project management life cycle •Market research completed•Best practice identified and incorporated into project•Project objectives defined•Project scope defined•Outputs/outcomes•Stakeholder buy-In•Team assembled•Business case created•Appraisal of project concept (Project brief, PID or business case prepared)•Approvals gained

•Feasibility Study•Detailed planning – PID•Work Breakdown Structure•Resource Breakdown Structure•Gantt chart•Budgeting•Risk/quality measures•Risk Register•Quality Plan

•Project completion•Monitoring and evaluation•Impact assessment•Best practice shared•Project team future•Further phases of project decided

•Controlling delivery•Monitoring•Evaluation•Change management•Regular 4-way reporting•Review of estimate budget and timescales against actual•Variance analysis reporting to senior management

•Project manager leading project•Action plan published , issued to team•Implementation plan/Gantt chart used•Risk Register used•Quality Plan used•Regular project team meetings•Delegation and motivating team

Level 3 assignment

1. Know how to manage a simple workplace project▫ Identify a simple workplace project▫ Use a simple tool for determining the financial viability of the

project▫ Produce a project plan using an appropriate project planning

technique▫ Set objectives and targets/milestones to monitor performance

and review plans within the project▫ Use a project evaluation technique to evaluate the project

2. Understand the financial and non-financial implications of a workplace project

▫ List areas where net savings can be achieved as a result of the workplace project

▫ Identify wider non-financial implications that can result from the workplace project

Level 5 assignment

1. Be able to manage a project in an organisation▫ Assess the usefulness of project management tools and

techniques for managing a project within own organisation▫ Plan the implementation of a project within own organisation ▫ Communicate the project plans with appropriate colleagues

and stakeholders, gaining agreement where necessary▫ Implement the project plan, monitoring progress against

agreed targets

2. Be able to evaluate own ability to manage a project1.Use feedback from others to critically evaluate own ability to

plan and implement a project, identifying strengths and weaknesses

2.Create a self-development plan to improve own performance in managing projects

Level 6 assignment

1. Plan a complex project▫ Determine the feasibility and risks associated with a proposed project▫ Agree the goals and success criteria for the project▫ Plan the project and identify the financial and other resources required,

using a standard method and appropriate project management tools▫ Select an appropriate project team

• Lead a complex project to a successful close▫ Lead the project team to achieve project milestones and goals▫ Monitor progress and take action to rectify problems or recover failure▫ Manage the project budget, identifying any variances and taking

appropriate action▫ Ensure full engagement of stakeholders with the project

• Evaluate a complex project▫ Develop and implement an appropriate evaluation tool for the project and

report on the outcomes to stakeholders▫ Reflect on and learn from the outcomes of a project

TASK:Let’s look at some assignment

examples …

Identifying Sources of Risks

TASK: Key Terminologies/Focus

• Brainstorm what terminologies you know regarding risk

Risk and Return

•Why take any risks?

• “all projects involve risk – the zero risk project is not worth pursuing” (Chapman and Ward, 2003)

• James Lam, 2003 model on ‘risk and return’ shows that there is a correlation between the level of risk and return, this is a simplistic model

• What recent projects/business practices can you name that have been particularly risky, yet provided high returns? Or, visa versa?

• Embed risk management into your project• Identify risks early in your project planning• Communicate risks to ensure awareness• Consider threats and opportunities as potential risks• Clarify ownership of the risk and mitigation• Prioritise risks – of them occurring and their impact• Analyse risks and evaluate potential mitigations• Plan and implement risk responses – mitigations in action• Register project risks through implementing Risk Registers• Track risks and associated tasks on a regular basis with those involved

11

Key Risks - Categorising

1. People: skills, experience, reliability

2. Technical: robustness and appropriateness of IT systems/processes

3. Time: WBS deadlines, contingencies

4. Financial: budget limit per phase/element, contingency, non-essentials

5. Environmental: external influences, fixed costs

6. Overall management: responsibilities, control

12

TASK: Your project and risk

• In pairs, debate your project and identify at least 3 key risks that impact your project

• Consider:▫ People▫ Technical▫ Time▫ Financial▫ Environmental▫ Overall management

• What can you do to reduce these risks a) occurring and b) the impact

Typical obstacles

• Securing approvals and sufficient funding• Stakeholder buy-in• Feasibility and viability• Contractual issues – delivering the unachievable• Project implementation• Keeping momentum• Managing and mitigating risks to proceed• Agreeing deliverables – outputs, outcomes, timelines, budget• Managing change and avoiding ‘project creep’• Control management – people and processes• Agreeing focus and strategy

14

TASK: Your obstacles

• In pairs, review your risks so far and:

1. Brainstorm typical obstacles that may occur in your own organisation that may impact the project

2. Identify the obstacles as risks “not securing sufficient budget to deliver 100% of the project outcomes”

3. Rank them in order of highest impact and probability of occurring – these may be different

Risk Identification Techniques

• (Level 3+) Scenario analysis - i.e. SWOT, PEST/LE or STEEPLE

• (Level 5+) Stakeholder analysis – identify people strengths and weaknesses

• (Level 5+) Probability analysis – judgement based (probability + impact)

• (Level 5+) Sensitivity analysis – i.e. 10% and 25% reductions in budget

• (Level 5+) 3 point estimate – ranked as maximum, most likely, minimum (also consider PERT)

• (Level 5+) FMEA – (Failure Mode Effect Analysis) identify quality and technical risks.

16

SWOT/STEEPLE Analysis• Important to be honest with this

technique and use up-to-date information

• Rank items in order of importance

• Based on quantitative and qualitative analysis

• Most effectively used at the beginning of identifying risks, used in conjunction with other frameworks i.e. Chapman and Ward 6Ws, then revisited before completing risk analysis

• SWOT should be accompanied with STEEPLE/PESTLE to consider the external environment as SWOT considers mostly the internal environment

Simple identification of risk sources• Using Chapman and Ward (2003)

6Ws framework is an effective starting point

1. Who2. What3. Wherewithal4. Why5. Which way6. When

TASK: Swap partners for this task and ask each other questions about the project based on 6W

• Two most common and quick ways of identifying risk are to review the weaknesses and threats in the SWOT/TOWS and PEST(LE)/STEEPLE

▫ Political▫ Economic▫ Social▫ Technical▫ Legal▫ Environmental▫ Ethical (for STEEPLE)

TASK: Review your SWOT/PESTLE/STEEPLE and identify the main risks. If you have not completed any of these tools, write down some risks now using the model

Risk Registers

• Incorporate:▫ Prevention▫ Deflection▫ Contingency▫ Acceptance

• Consider:▫ People▫ Technical▫ Time▫ Financial▫ Environmental▫ Overall management

• Further risk assessment models that are appropriate for Level 5 and 7 include the following:

• Risk impact assessment• Expected monetary value• Probability (risk impact) analysis• 3 point estimate• Stakeholder analysis• Sensitivity analysis• Scenario analysis• FMEA analysis

• We will look at these in more detail next session along with risk assessment and management

19

• In project management it is important to create a Risk Register to manage risks effectively

TASK: Create a Risk Register

• Create a Risk Register for your chosen project, incorporating the following:

1. Identify the risks associated with your project

2. Analyse the level of risk and prioritise them (red, amber, green; or high, medium, low)

3. Evaluate the likelihood (probability) of them occurring and/or impact

4. Plan how you will mitigate (overcome) these risks

20

Quality

Consider: How you will Control quality? What are your quality Measures, Existing Policy & procedures, Key performance indicators?

Quality management

• Consists of 3 categories:

▫Quality Planning

▫Quality Assurance

▫Quality Control

Quality management

• Quality planning - clear definition of the project aims, outcome and what the deliverable are and how these are going to be measured. Include assessing the risks, setting high standards, keeping an audit trail and measurement of success

• Quality assurance - uses a system of quantitative and qualitative metrics to determine whether or not the quality plan is proceeding in an acceptable manner, mostly through intermittent quality audits

• Quality control - involves operational techniques meant to ensure quality standards. Control is reactionary and occurs after a problem has been identified, unlike quality assurance which occurs before a problem is identified. The monitoring of specific project outputs, compliance, risk factors/mitigation and overcoming unsatisfactory performance

• How will you manage quality?

Evaluation

Evaluation is measuring success in a systematic and objective way

24

How are you going to evaluate whether and how your project was a success?

What to focus on

• Evaluation focuses on whether the project was effective, achieved its objectives and the outcomes had an impact – how has it made a difference?

• How the project changed/evolved and what strategic added value has it provided that can improve stakeholder relationships

• How has the project meet your and stakeholder needs

• What would you have done differently and what were the restrictions that limited maximum return

• How the project compares with forecast v actual timings and budget.

Outputs and Outcomes

Outputs Outcomes

• Outputs are the products and services you deliver as part of your project i.e. training courses, support sessions, jobs created and publications etc

• They can be easily captured during the project, even if it’s a short project - they can be seen/felt

• Recruit staff = newly appointed people• Prepare a meal = a meal

• Outcomes are the changes, benefits, learning or other impact that happens as a result of your project – what difference it has made

• A level of performance, or achievement that may be associated with the process, or the output - implies quantification of performance

• Newly appointed people may be = capable, or incapable of performing their role; too many, or too few

27

Measuring impact

When should I monitor progress and impact?

•Formative – frequent evaluation throughout the project

•Summative – conducted at the end of the programme to assess outcomes, impact on the community, and overall success.

Consider:•What criteria you will use to measure successful achievement of your aims and objectives

•What benchmark information or data you need before commencing •How you will use the findings of your evaluation

Evaluation methods

• Quantitative: statistical analysis (numbers)• Qualitative: views/opinions (combined with quantitative for maximum

effectiveness)• Return: consider financial and social return discussed last session• Consider using tracking actual performance against forecasts, with variance

analysis

Market research techniques:

• Sampling methods – random, systematic random, stratified, cluster, multi-stage• Primary research – Questionnaire; Interviews; Focus groups; Observation• Secondary research – Internet, Libraries, Universities, Trade Reports

Review

• What have we achieved today?• Where do we need to focus further?• What are we doing next time?