Project Management FundamentalsSeriesdownloads.projectinsight.net/.../estimating-time.pdf · cycle...

Project Management Fundamentals Series

Estimating Time

© 2015 Core Performance Concepts Inc.

Things to Know…

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Questions are welcome.

Use the question box to ask questions.

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Moderator

Denise Rodriguez

Project Insight

Marketing

[email protected]

www.projectinsight.net

Diane C. Altwies, MBA, PMP

CEO, Core Performance Concepts Inc.

Training in project management,

PMP® and CAPM® certification, leadership,

business analysis, agile and six sigma

[email protected]

www.coreperformanceconcepts.com

Presenter

®

®

PMP® and CAPM® are registered trademarks of the Project Management Institute


Janice Y. Preston, MBA, CPA, PMP

COO, Core Performance Concepts Inc.

Training in project management,

PMP® and CAPM® certification, leadership,

business analysis, agile and six sigma

[email protected]


Presenter

®

®

PMP® and CAPM® are registered trademarks of the Project Management Institute



Presenter

Kristine Munson, MBA, PMP, CIA

VP, IT Risk & Compliance Manager

State Street Insurance Co.

BA from Brigham Young University

MBA form Cal State University

Past President, PMI-Orange County Chapter

PMI Leadership Institute Master Class Alum

PMP® is a registered trademark of the Project Management Institute


What are your biggest issues with estimating on your projects?

� Team members underestimate the work effort by more

than 50%

� Teams don’t consider all the other persons necessary to

accurately complete tasks

� Management doesn’t want to acknowledge the actual

time it takes to complete tasks

� Management isn’t willing to modify the end date based on

bottom-up estimating

What Troubles You?


Goals of the Fundamentals Series

Deepen your understanding of fundamental project

management concepts

Identify tools and techniques that can be implemented to

manage projects more effectively

Discover practical applications for your existing projects

Use project management software more effectively


Objectives of this Webinar

Identify challenges and benefits of estimating time

Identify best practices for more accurate time estimates

Differentiate between duration and effort

Review best practices in a mini-case study

Learn how estimating works in Project Insight


Regarding Human Nature

… the tendency is to underestimate the amount of time needed

to complete a given project, or overestimate the amount of

work that can be completed within a given time frame.

‘Procrastination and the Planning Fallacy: An

Examination of the Study Habits of University Students’

Journal of Social Behavior and Personality. 15(5), 135-150.

Pychyl, T.A., Morin, R.W., Salmon, B.R. (2000).


Challenges in Managing Time

Projects don’t follow the planned schedule

exactly because…

� Time estimates are seldom 100%

realistic

� Activities may need to be added to

support project objectives

� Project team members may change or

work on many projects at once


Estimates can be established with certainty.

� Facts only happen in the past.

High level estimates driven by management issues

are right.

� Do the estimates cover the full scope of work?

Good estimates can be prepared before

requirements are finalized.

� What?! What are you going to estimate?

Examples of Estimating Beliefs


Project teams always pad estimates.

� Contingency should reflect the project’s risk.

Detailed estimates can be prepared without a WBS.

� The WBS is the essential foundation of estimates!

If you plan it right there won’t be any changes.

� A good project plan adapts to approved changes.

Optimistic estimates incent people to work harder.

� Hey! we’re already working as hard as we can, and …

� Used incorrectly, they are often counterproductive.

Examples of Estimating Beliefs (cont.)


Develop a more accurate project schedule

Set more realistic stakeholder expectations

Establish plan for resource utilization

Make better decisions to optimize value

Build team confidence and credibility

Make fewer disruptive changes

Benefits of Good Estimating


Distinguish Duration from Effort

Duration: The number of working time periods required to

complete a schedule activity or project. It is expressed in hours, days,

months, etc.. . Used to calculate the schedule Critical Path.

(Duration does not account for non-working periods, which must be

added to determine Calendar or Elapsed Duration)

Effort, or Work: The number of units of resources assigned to

complete a schedule activity or project, multiplied by the number of

working time periods. Used to calculate Cost.

It is expressed in ‘machine-hours’, ‘person-days’, etc..

Adapted from PMBOK® Guide


Estimates of Duration and EffortComparative Illustration of Duration and Effort

Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

10 person days of Effort / 5 days Task Duration / 5 days Elapsed Duration

Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

10 person days of Effort / 10 days Task Duration / 12 days Elapsed Duration

Num

ber of Reso

urc

es

Num

ber of Reso

urc

es


Regarding Risk & Uncertainty

“Facts only happen in the past.”

David T. Hulett, Ph.D.

Risk Management Guru


Time Estimates as Ranges

Consider commuting to work:

� What is your typical daily commute time? 40 minutes

� What is your best time? 30 minutes

� Your worst time ever? 60 minutes

How much time do you allow if you MUST be there on

time?

Which estimate would you rely upon if you were going

to meet with the company CEO? Consequences for

being late? Why?

What will you do with spare time if you arrive early?


Regarding Productivity

Putting two jockeys on a horse won't make it

run faster.

Anonymous


Estimating Best Practices

Establish a definitive work breakdown structure

Identify all scope and tabulate discreet

deliverables (work packages, WPs)

Trace each WP to performance requirements

Identify and document excluded scope

Explicitly identify tasks for each WP


Estimating Best Practices 2

Use a standardized procedure for estimating

Obtain stakeholders’ participation, engage those

performing the work.

Express estimates as ranges with probabilities

Document specific requirements and conditions

to achieve desired estimates

Seek and use available sources of data for

validation

Obtain an independent review of estimates


Estimating Best Practices 3

Identify all dependencies, including externals such

as permits and procurements

Identify risks and uncertainties; provide adequate

responses

Add correctly-sized and placed buffers, especially at

merge points and at phase end

During execution, revise schedule baseline to adapt

to changed circumstances – (e.g., significant

changes to scope, sponsor expectations and / or

resources)


Now, let’s apply it

Use the Time Estimating Best Practices

to the situation described in the following

project charter case study as you plan and

schedule the project


Busy Foods, Inc. – Case Study

Changed Customer

Expectations

Busy Foods’ Response:

Project Charter

Project Deliverables

& Estimates


Busy Foods, Inc.

Business Overview

• BUSY FOODS provides restaurant equipment to over 200 clients world-wide. Most of its clients are large restaurants. There has been a customary minimum order size in the industry.

A Competitor’s Challenge

• Recently, some valuable long-term clients have started to leave BUSY FOODS for a competitor that promises overnight delivery without a meeting minimum order size.

Goal

• BUSY FOODS would like to meet this challenge by improving its shipping processes and eliminating the minimum order size to help re-acquire lost clients.


Success Requirements

Improve order processing capacity to enable smaller orders

Reduce the process cycle time to fewer than 8 hours

Busy Foods’ Response

Develop and launch a marketing campaign to educate clients on the new equipment shipping policy and its benefits

Project Deliverables

Train staff in the new business process to ensure that the 8 hour goal can be met

Marketing & Training Project


Tasks and Duration EstimatesActivity Depends Upon Duration

A – Project kick-off - 1 day

B – Analyze current business process A 10 days?

C – Draft Marketing Plan E 5 days

D – Create Marketing Messages C 10 days

E – Determine needed improvements A 5-20 days

F – Review improvement opportunities with Mgmt. E 2 days

G – Obtain Mgmt. approval on improvements F 1-20 days

H – Engineer the improvements G ?

I – Design training materials H 8 days

J – Deliver training to staff I 3-6 days

K – Deliver marketing message – various media D, L 60 days?

L – Implement approved improvements H 25 days

M – Test customer acceptance of improvements L 20-30 days

N – Implement refinements M 5-30 days

O – Project Complete ? 0 days


Questions for You

What estimating challenges do you expect

from this project?

What specific information is missing?

Sequence? Estimates? Dependencies?

Uncertainties?

As the project manager, what would you

require to deliver the project on time?

(Assumptions, assurances, etc.)

What duration would you be willing to

commit to?

Please submit your responses

through the comment box


Another Question for You

How should existing work

assignments of your project

team be managed to ensure on-

time completion of this project?

Submit your ideas through the

question box


Finding Estimating Information

Rely on experience and judgment

Refer to prior projects

Interview subject matter experts and

consultants

Use templates and checklists

Use commercial estimating databases


Question for You

What sources of

information do you use to

develop time estimates?

Please submit your ideas through

the comment box


Estimating & Scheduling References

Industry-specific estimating best practices

Estimating and Scheduling Practice Standards;

PMI, (Project Management Institute)

Requirements for good schedules; DCMA,

(Defense Contract Management Agency)

Research articles, external consultants, and

tailored training.


Your Thoughts?

What else might be done

to improve estimating

accuracy?

Please submit your thoughts

through the comment box


Using Project Insight

Duration time estimates are used to

develop the project schedule.

Effort estimates are used to develop

the project budget

There are a number of display options

that allow you to customize reports for

the information you need


Project Insight Display Options


Review of Webinar Objectives

Identify challenges and benefits of estimating time

Identify best practices for more accurate time estimates

Differentiate between duration and effort

Review best practices in a mini-case study

Learn how estimating works in Project Insight

Questions???


What Else?

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