1. Project planning and estimating How long is a piece of string?1 Copyright ISC 2012

2. Hofstadters Law Hofstadters Law states that, when planning any task, it always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadters Law In other words, projects over- running are almost inevitable because of the way our brains think about how long stuff takes to do Estimating tools can help you2 Copyright ISC 2012

3. Estimates and Estimating An estimate is an approximation of project time and cost targets that is refined throughout the project life cycle Estimating uses a range of tools and techniques to produce estimates Copyright ISC 2012Estimating: 3

4. Estimating methods High Accuracy & Detail Bottom-up Parametric Estimate Estimate Comparative Estimate 3-point Estimate Expert Judge- Quick & ment Dirty Perception Fact Copyright ISC 2012Estimating: 4

5. Bottom-up estimating Assumes that future costs for a product can be predicted accurately from historical costs of that product Uses detailed costs of components, built up into an end product (WBS/PBS) e.g. 10,000 bricks, 250 tiles, 20 litres of paint = total cost of xxx Also known as Detailed Estimate, Engineering Build-up, or Grass Roots method Copyright ISC 2012Estimating: 5

6. Parametric estimating Collecting relevant historical data, usually at an aggregated level of detail, and relating it to the project to be estimated through the use of statistical techniques At the heart of the parametric estimating methodology are cost estimating relationships (CERs) e.g. 1 hour of filming will require 5 hours of editing e.g. 10% of the cost of developing a new website is associated with User Testing Copyright ISC 2012Estimating: 6

7. Comparative estimating Takes actual costs of similar existing or past projects, and makes adjustments for complexity, technical, or physical differences to derive the new project estimate e.g. 10 new web pages took 3 weeks and 15k on project X, so we estimate project Y requiring 20 new pages will take 5 weeks and cost 25k Also known as Analogous Estimating Copyright ISC 2012Estimating: 7

8. Other estimating methods 3-point estimates Expert judgement Come up with 3 numbers: Ask the project team and Realistic (most likely) Subject Matter Experts Best case (optimistic) Worst case (pessimistic) Estimate = (B + 4R + W)/6 N.B. the formula is usually weighted (4 x R), but sometimes is the simple average of B, R & W Copyright ISC 2012Estimating: 8

9. Example 3-point estimate ID Tas k Nam e Duration Optimis tic Dur. Expected Dur. Pes sim is tic Dur. 1 Programm e plan 200 days 180 days 200 days 280 days 2 Office project 10 mons 9 m ons 10 mons 11 mons 3 New technology project 9.67 mons 8 m ons 9 m ons 14 mons 4 Project re staff 66.67 days 50 days 65 days 95 days 5 Com munications 66.67 days 50 days 65 days 90 days 6 Group s taff types 1.17 wks 1 wk 1 wk 2 wks 7 Develop comms plan 2.33 wks 2 wks 2 wks 4 wks 8 Staff prepared 0 days 0 days 0 days 0 days 9 Com municate intentions 9.83 wks 7 wks 10 wks 12 wks 10 Staff numbers 46.67 days 35 days 45 days 65 days 11 Set up database 1.17 wks 1 wk 1 wk 2 wks 12 Count s taff 5.17 wks 4 wks 5 wks 7 wks 13 Set up s urvey 2 wks 1 wk 2 wks 3 wks 14 Input data 2.17 wks 2 wks 2 wks 3 wks Estimate = (O + 4E + P)/6 N.B. the formula is usually weighted (4 x E), but sometimes is the simple average of O, E & P Copyright ISC 2012Estimating: 9

10. Test yourself: Which method does the project team use to estimate costs of building a new e-learning course? Expert 3- Compa- Para- Bottom- Point rative metric up The team identifies a best, worst and most likely case and averages them The team asks two suppliers who have built e-learning courses before The team uses a spreadsheet of data from previous projects and it calculates cost and time estimates for them Members of the team have been involved in 4 previous e-learning projects and know exactly how long each one took and what they cost Theres so much work to be done that the team breaks the project down into 75 work packages Copyright ISC 2012Estimating: 10

11. A final thought Quote from a clients Project Manager: We try to fall behind as early as possible because that gives us longer to catch up11 Copyright ISC 2012

12. Copyright ISC 2012Estimating: 12