Progress Report of the Gulf of Maine Integrated Model System

The UMASSD Team: C. Chen, G. Cowles, D. Stuebe, S. Hu, Q. Xu and P. Xue

The WHOI Team:

R. C. Beardsley, C. Davis, R. Ji and D. Limeburner

The MIT Team:

P. Rizzolli and J. Wei

Website: http://fvcom.smast.umassd.edu

Outlines

1) Upgrade the MM5 to WRF (Meteorological Forcing)

2) Upgrade the GoM FVCOM to the third generation

3) Data assimilation experiments for the GLOBEC hindcast years

4) Introduction of the Northeast Ocean Forecast System (NeCOFS)

MASS CoastalFVCOM

Surface Wave Model

Generalized Ecosystem Model (FVCOM Module)

Sediment Transport Model(FVCOM Module)

Local Weather Model (WRF)/MM5

North American Meso-scale (NAM) Weather Model

Satellite SSTBuoy WindsInsolation

Satellite SST, U,V

Buoy T,S,U,V

Freshwater Input

Global Tidal Model

Under developed

Existing Models

FVCOM System

KEY

Heat Flux Wind Stress P-E U,V

PA

R

Data

BC’s

BC’s

U,V Waves, Langmuir Cells

Form Drag

assimilation

assimilation

Multi-Stage Zooplankton Model (IBM and concentration-based)

Nutrients, PhytoplanktonOcean Colors

Fish Larval Model(IBM and concentration-based)

VPR

Larval data

GoM/GB FVCOM

BC’s Inflow

Groundwater Input

The Gulf of Maine Integrated Model System

MM5 WRF

B-grid

First-order leapfrog time integration

Finite-difference with no guarantee of conservation

Advection-second-order centered difference scheme

Time split modes for acoustic and gravity waves

C-grid

Third-order Runge-Kutta split-explicit time integration

Finite-volume with guarantee of conservation

Advection-fifth-order upwind scheme or sixth-order centered difference scheme.

Time split modes for acoustic and gravity waves

Regional Domain: 9 km Large domain: 27 km

Domain 1

Domain 2

Domain 2

Domain 3

Domain 3

Local domain: 3 km

Hindcast

Comparison of MM5 and WRF with observations

Comparison of MM5 and WRF with observations at all buoys

u u v v t t

 Model

u(m/s) v(m/s) t(°C)

MM5 2.7 3.4 2.9 3.9 1.4 1.8

WRF 2.4 3.0 2.8 3.5 1.4 1.8

Forecast Errors for May 2-10, 2007 on 11 buoys

Second Generation

• Horizontal resolution: 0.3-1.0 km in the coastal region;

• Generalized terrain-following coordinates: 46 layers: 10 uniform layers in the surface and bottom boundary layers, respectively.

• 1500 m cutoff off Georges Bank• Capable to nest to the coasta-estuarine model

with a horizontal resolution of ~10 -500 m;

Third Generation

• Horizontal resolution: 0.5-1.0 km in the coastal region;

• Sigma-coordinates: 31 vertical layers• 300 m cutoff off Georges Bank

Second Generation Third Generation

Surface sigma level: don’t resolve the near-surface current because the horizontal velocity is calculated at the mid-point of the first sigma layer, which changes with depth.

At the 2-m below the surface: Resolve the near-surface current better with the thin uniform layers at the surface..

2 m at GoMOOS Buoy E 50 m at GoMOOS Buoy E

Observed Second-generation FVCOM Third-generation FVCOM

3rd FVCOM shows a certain level improvement than 2nd FVCOM for some relatively large wind events.

Data Assimilation Experiments

1) Optimal Interpolation (OI) assimilated all T/S data into the model as monthly arrays

2) Ensemble Kalman Filter to assimilate all T/S data into the model as adaptive samplings

Examples were made for the 1998 hindcast reanalysis experiment

Note: The ensemble Kalman filter experiment results were made by the graduate student Xue and he is in hospital, so the results are not included in this talk.

Jan Feb Mar Apr

May June July Aug

Spt Oct Nov Dec

The hydrographic data sites: January-December, 1998

With no OI Assimilation With OI Assimilation

Near-surface, April 1998

Velocity (OI)-Velocity (No-OI); Temperature (OI)-Temperature (No-OI)

No OI With OI

Near-surface, August 1988

Velocity (OI)-Velocity (No-OI); Temperature (OI)-Temperature (No-OI)

At 150-m, August 1998

NO-OI With-OI

Note: Temperature contour needs to check (interpolation method?)

NeCOFS Model Flow Diagram: 1.0

Stage: 1 (midnight)Crontab starts NeCOFS

wrf forecast data

wrf hindcast data

fvcom data (results)

river data

sst data

Day# -10 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

Day 0 ~ now

Current Process1:2:3:

(Previous Hindcast)

(Previous Forecast)

NeCOFS Model Flow Diagram: 1.0

Stage: 2 (midnight)Upate River Data

wrf forecast data

wrf hindcast data

fvcom data (results)

river data

sst data (Previous Forecast)

Day# -10 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

Current Process1: Download USGS data and update data file2:3:

(Previous Hindcast)

NeCOFS Model Flow Diagram: 1.0

Stage: 3 (00:10)Upate SST Data

wrf forecast data

wrf hindcast data

fvcom data (results)

river data

sst data

Day# -10 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

Current Process1: Download JPL SST and update OI assim2:3:

S 2

(Previous Forecast)

(Previous Hindcast)

Latest available SST data is already several days old

NeCOFS Model Flow Diagram: 1.0

Stage: 4 (00:15)Run WRF

wrf forecast data

wrf hindcast data

fvcom data (results)

river data

sst data

Day# -10 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

Current Process1: WRF Forecast2: WRF Hindcast3:

S 2

S 3

Continuous WRF data archive is automatically updated with new results

(Previous Hindcast)

(Previous Forecast)

NeCOFS Model Flow Diagram: 1.0

Stage: 5 (08:00)Start FVCOM hindcast

wrf forecast data

wrf hindcast data

fvcom data (results)

river data

sst data

Day# -10 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

Current Process1: WRF Forecast2: FVCOM Hindcast3:

S 2

S 3

FVCOM overwrites old results updating time period of new WRF data.

S 4

(Still running)

(Previous Hindcast)

(Previous Forecast)

NeCOFS Model Flow Diagram: 1.0

Stage: 6 (11:00)Start FVCOM Forecast

wrf forecast data

wrf hindcast data

fvcom data (results)

river data

sst data

Day# -10 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

Current Process1: FVCOM Forecast2:3:

S 2

S 3

S 4

S 5

S 5

(Previous Hindcast)

(Previous Forecast)

FVCOM forecast runs till end of available WRF data

NeCOFS Model Flow Diagram: 1.0

Stage: 7 (12:00)NeCOFS Forecast Finished!

wrf forecast data

wrf hindcast data

fvcom data (results)

river data

sst data

Day# -10 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

Current Process1:2:3:

S 2

S 3

S 4

S 5

S 5 S 6

New Results are Automatically posted to the web site!

(Previous Hindcast)

(Previous Forecast)

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are needed to see this picture.

Publications (only physical compoment)

1. Chen, C. R. C. Beardsley, Q. Xu, G. Cowles and R. Lime burner, 2007. Tidal dynamics in the Gulf of Maine and New England Shelf: An application of FVCOM. Journal of Geophysical Research, in revision

2. Chen, C., H. Huang, R. C. Beardsley, H. Liu, Q. Xu, and G. Cowles, 2007. A finite-volume numerical approach for coastal ocean circulation studies: comparisons with finite-difference models. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112, C03018, doi:10.1029/2006JC003485.

3. Chen, C., Q. Xu, R. Houghton and R. C. Beardsley, 2007. A Model-Dye Comparison Experiment in the Tidal Mixing Front Zone on the Southern Flank of Georges Bank. Journal of Geophysical Research, in press.

4. Chen, C., R. C. Beardsley, Q. Xu and R. Limeburner, Tidal Dynamics in the Gulf of Maine and New England Shelf: An Application of FVCOM. Deep Sea Research II: GLOBEC/GB Special Issue. In revision.

5. Chen, C., P.Malanotte-Rizzoli, J. Wei, R. C. Beardsely, Z. Lai, P. Xue, S. Lyu, Q. Xu, J. Qi and G. Cowles, Validation of Kalman filters for coastal ocean problems: an experiment with FVCOM. Journal of Geophysical Research, submitted.

6. Cowles, G., Chen, C., Lentz, S.L., Beardsley, R.C., and Xu, Q., 2007. Validation of Model-Computed Low Frequency Currents on the New England Shelf. Journal of Geophysical Research, accepted with revision.

7. Huang, H. C. Chen, G. Cowles, C. D. Winant, R. C. Beardsley, K. S. Hedstrom, and D. B. Haidvogel, 2007. FVCOM validation experiments: comparisons with ROMS for three idealized test problems. Journal of Geophysical Research, submitted.

8. Lai, Z, C. Chen, G. Cowles and R. C. Beardsley, A non-hydrostatic version of FVCOM-validation experiment I: surface standing and solitary waves. In preparation.

9. Lai, Z., C. Chen, G. Cowles and R. C. Beardsley, A non-hydrostatic version of FVCOM-valiation experiment II: lock exchange flow and internal solitary waves. In preparation.

On-going Activities

1. Complete the data assimilation experiments with OI and K-Filters.

2. Coupled UG-SWAN into FVCOM to include the dynamics of the current and wave interaction.

3. Improve the model dynamics with more accurate and complete river discharges.

4. Apply the non-hydrostatic version of FVCOM (NH-FVCOM) to resolve the internal waves on the slope and wintertime convection.