Progress on the 2010 WMO/UNEP Progress on the 2010 WMO/UNEP ozone assessmentozone assessment

Greg BodekerGreg Bodeker

Presented at SPARC-SSG meeting, Kyoto, JapanPresented at SPARC-SSG meeting, Kyoto, Japan

27 October 200927 October 2009

2010 Ozone Assessment Co-chairs2010 Ozone Assessment Co-chairs

Ayité-Lô Ajavon (Togo)Ayité-Lô Ajavon (Togo) Paul Newman (USA) Paul Newman (USA)

John Pyle (UK)John Pyle (UK) A.R. Ravishankara (USA)A.R. Ravishankara (USA)

2006 Assessment2006 Assessment

Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion:2010

Colour?

2010 Assessment2010 Assessment

The Parties’ Request (Decision XIX/20)The Parties’ Request (Decision XIX/20)

Assess the state of the ozone layer and its future Assess the state of the ozone layer and its future evolutionevolution

Evaluate recent Antarctic ozone hole and Arctic Evaluate recent Antarctic ozone hole and Arctic ozone depletion behaviorozone depletion behavior

Evaluate trends of ozone-depleting substances in Evaluate trends of ozone-depleting substances in the atmospherethe atmosphere

Assess the impacts of climate change on ozone Assess the impacts of climate change on ozone layerlayer

Analyze atmospheric concentrations of bromine Analyze atmospheric concentrations of bromine and implications for the ozone-layer and implications for the ozone-layer

Describe surface ultraviolet radiation observations Describe surface ultraviolet radiation observations and future expectationsand future expectations

Assess interaction between tropospheric and Assess interaction between tropospheric and stratospheric ozonestratospheric ozone

Assess approaches to evaluating very short-lived Assess approaches to evaluating very short-lived substancessubstances

2010 Ozone Assessment Structure2010 Ozone Assessment StructureNew level of authorship in this assessment: New level of authorship in this assessment: Co-Co-ordinating Lead Authors (CLAs)ordinating Lead Authors (CLAs), Lead Authors (LAs), , Lead Authors (LAs), Co-authors (CAs), and contributing authors – some Co-authors (CAs), and contributing authors – some resultant confusion.resultant confusion.

Chapter 1: Chapter 1: Ozone-Depleting Substances and Related Ozone-Depleting Substances and Related Chemicals – Chemicals – Steve Montzka and Stefan ReimannSteve Montzka and Stefan Reimann

Chapter 2: Stratospheric Ozone and Surface Chapter 2: Stratospheric Ozone and Surface Ultraviolet Radiation – Ultraviolet Radiation – Anne Douglass and Vitali Anne Douglass and Vitali FioletovFioletov

Chapter 3: Future Ozone and its Impact on Surface Chapter 3: Future Ozone and its Impact on Surface UV – UV – Slimane Bekki and Greg BodekerSlimane Bekki and Greg Bodeker

Chapter 4: Stratospheric Change and Climate – Chapter 4: Stratospheric Change and Climate – Piers Piers Forster and Dave ThompsonForster and Dave Thompson

Chapter 5: Information and Options for Policymakers Chapter 5: Information and Options for Policymakers – – John Daniel and Guus VeldersJohn Daniel and Guus Velders

Twenty Questions and Answers About the Ozone Twenty Questions and Answers About the Ozone Layer: 2010 Update – Layer: 2010 Update – David Fahey and Michaela David Fahey and Michaela HegglinHegglin

Where we areWhere we are

Draft outline completed. Comments solicited from scientific community. Draft outline completed. Comments solicited from scientific community. Coordinating Lead Authors & author teams established. Chapter outlines Coordinating Lead Authors & author teams established. Chapter outlines

drafted. drafted. June 24-25, 2009June 24-25, 2009: Lead Authors’ meeting (London): Lead Authors’ meeting (London) 13 October: 1st drafts due; circulated for internal review.13 October: 1st drafts due; circulated for internal review.November 17-19, 2009November 17-19, 2009: Internal review meeting: Coordinating Lead Authors, : Internal review meeting: Coordinating Lead Authors,

Cochairs, and a few others. (Washington, DC)Cochairs, and a few others. (Washington, DC)18 February 2010: 218 February 2010: 2ndnd drafts complete and mail peer review starts. drafts complete and mail peer review starts.April: mail reviews due; third draft preparation begins.April: mail reviews due; third draft preparation begins.Mid-May: Third draft due; distributed to Les Diablerets Panel reviewers.Mid-May: Third draft due; distributed to Les Diablerets Panel reviewers.June 28 - July 2, 2010June 28 - July 2, 2010: Panel Review: (Les Diablerets, Switzerland): Panel Review: (Les Diablerets, Switzerland)

• Coodinating Lead Authors & a few Lead Authors.Coodinating Lead Authors & a few Lead Authors.• ~30-40 reviewers.~30-40 reviewers.• Final decisions on chapters.Final decisions on chapters.• Completed Executive Summary.Completed Executive Summary.

Early August: Chapters completed, editing begins.Early August: Chapters completed, editing begins.30 December: preprint volume to UNEP for government distribution.30 December: preprint volume to UNEP for government distribution.~ March 2011: final printed copies available~ March 2011: final printed copies available

2009

2010

Main Issues (1 of 3)Main Issues (1 of 3)

First assessment to consider the effects of First assessment to consider the effects of stratospheric change on climate. This is a key stratospheric change on climate. This is a key SPARC connection.SPARC connection.

The 2006 ozone assessment had to do CCM The 2006 ozone assessment had to do CCM validation on the fly. Now the SPARC CCMVal validation on the fly. Now the SPARC CCMVal Report Report on the Evaluation of Chemistry-Climate Models is on the Evaluation of Chemistry-Climate Models is available.available. Advantages: huge amount of work that can be Advantages: huge amount of work that can be built off.built off. Disadvantages: work overload from potential Disadvantages: work overload from potential authors, authors, need to define the distinction between need to define the distinction between the reports.the reports.

Report on the resolution of the Pope et al. ClReport on the resolution of the Pope et al. Cl22OO22 UV UV absorption cross-section measurements.absorption cross-section measurements.

More refined analysis of the impact of climate More refined analysis of the impact of climate change on ozone recovery.change on ozone recovery.

Effects of geoengineering on ozone.Effects of geoengineering on ozone.

Availability of sensitivity simulations from CCMVal.Availability of sensitivity simulations from CCMVal.

The use of The use of sensitivity sensitivity simulationssimulations

Main Issues (2 of 3)Main Issues (2 of 3)

Still plenty of discussion about the role of Very Still plenty of discussion about the role of Very Short Lived Substances (VSLS) on the total halogen Short Lived Substances (VSLS) on the total halogen burden of the stratosphere.burden of the stratosphere.

NN22O as a major future chemical influence on ozone.O as a major future chemical influence on ozone.

UV no longer has its own chapter.UV no longer has its own chapter.

Need for incorporation of interactive ocean in CCMs.Need for incorporation of interactive ocean in CCMs.

Recent increases in stratospheric aerosol burden Recent increases in stratospheric aerosol burden from large increases in Chinese coal-fired power from large increases in Chinese coal-fired power stations.stations.

Changes in the strength of the Brewer-Dobson Changes in the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation.circulation.

Fixed volume mixing ratio boundary condition in Fixed volume mixing ratio boundary condition in CCMs.CCMs.

Reporting on ‘World Avoided’ scenarios.Reporting on ‘World Avoided’ scenarios.

Effects of changes in stratospheric water vapour on Effects of changes in stratospheric water vapour on climate.climate.

Main Issues (3 of 3)Main Issues (3 of 3)

Changes in stratospheric volcanic aerosol loading Changes in stratospheric volcanic aerosol loading have prolonged effects on surface climate.have prolonged effects on surface climate.

Updated reporting on stratospheric temperature Updated reporting on stratospheric temperature trends.trends.

Effects of changes in the SAM on surface climate Effects of changes in the SAM on surface climate over southern middle and high latitudes.over southern middle and high latitudes.

Update on ODPs and GWPs for many ODSs.Update on ODPs and GWPs for many ODSs.

Discussion of the effects of accelerated phase out of Discussion of the effects of accelerated phase out of HCFCs.HCFCs.

The role that the Montreal Protocol has played in The role that the Montreal Protocol has played in mitigating climate change – but potential future mitigating climate change – but potential future growth of HFCs may offset any gains.growth of HFCs may offset any gains.

Lessons for SPARCLessons for SPARC

Where possible, SPARC special reports feeding Where possible, SPARC special reports feeding ozone or IPCC assessments should be completed ozone or IPCC assessments should be completed before the beginning of the assessment process.before the beginning of the assessment process.

SPARC research is becoming increasingly central to SPARC research is becoming increasingly central to WMO/UNEP ozone assessments. Slow shift in WMO/UNEP ozone assessments. Slow shift in emphasis away from ‘QOS’ and towards ‘SPARC’.emphasis away from ‘QOS’ and towards ‘SPARC’.

The SPARC special report on CCM validation has The SPARC special report on CCM validation has been incredibly valuable to the 2010 ozone been incredibly valuable to the 2010 ozone assessment. Any plans for SPARC’s role in guiding assessment. Any plans for SPARC’s role in guiding CCMVal-3 and how that will feed the 2014 ozone CCMVal-3 and how that will feed the 2014 ozone assessment?assessment?