Communication on energy/Conference report

growing nuclear power programme, possibly based in the longer term on the fast breeder or on the high temperature thorium cycle system, the only way in which West Germany could maintain its economic growth through the next 20 years would be to rely on imported oil and to some extent on imported coal, with the associated vulnerability to cut- back, and ultimately rapid exhaustion of reserves. The more profound change to a low-energy economy can only occur slowly, and politically seems very unattractive.

Nevertheless, as a result of very liberal legislation the nuclear programme in West Germany, and for that matter in France and other EEC nations, is being held back by anti- nuclear pressure groups. It is difficult to assess the precise effects of this cut- back. Some of them could be admirable if they lead to more efficient end use of energy and if they make the world a safer place. At the same time, too rapid a change could lead to extremely • mdesirable tensions and political problems. Some compromise is

essential, and there is still time to achieve a proper balance, but the way ahead must be clarified before the beginning of 1980 if West Germany is to achieve a satisfactory and adequate energy supply by 1990 and thereafter.

lan Fells The University of

Newcastle upon Tyne Newcastle upon Tyne, UK

This article was first published in InternationalRelations, November 1977.

Conference report

Progress in understanding- problems shared by primitive and privileged

The World Energy Conference's assumption of global authority is undoubtedly justified by its achievement since 1924 and its acceptance by every representative national professional and technical body, every national government and academic establishment. These earnest triennial deliberations are not to be dismissed lightly - or at all. Norman Jenkins reviews the lOth World Energy Conference, Istanbul, 19-24 September 1977.

Anyone who visited the World Energy Conference and expected to come away with ready made opinions is liable to be greatly disappointed. That is not the conference's function, and the tenth conference was - almost - no exception. The value of this triennial conference to its delegates is the very rare opportunity to offer a contribution of global importance, to listen to the most authoritative voices, or to consult with contemporaries in a context and atmosphere that can scarcely be matched elsewhere.

There was no disappointment this year, though there were none of the fireworks of 1974 in Detroit, when President Ford swopped points on oil prices with Sheikh Yamani, who regrettably was missing from Istanbul.

There was virtually no disagreement

with the view that the future of world energy depends on coal and nuclear power. Numerous voices also urged the case for combined heat and power, a technique whose success has apparently been kept hidden, but which is nevertheless ready with proven, acceptable engineering methods, requiring only money to put it into almost instant operation.

One major issue was apparent through the sessions, but received no positive expression until the end, when many delegates felt there was hardly need for stressing the obvious. Indeed, Dr Sumitro Djojohadikusumo, the Indonesian Minister of State for Research, was in some danger of being misunderstood. His was no special pleading for his own country or others like it. It was a reminder that promises

have been made to ensure that emergent nations are supported and encouraged in their aspirations to attain a civilized lifestyle akin to that of industrialized nations. His main point was made in very few words, something every national energy policy maker should know by heart. 'More than 70% of the world population consumes less than 3 kW per capita. At the other end of the spectrum 3% of all countries (primarily North America) consume between 7 and 12 kW per capita. The remaining 22% of countries (including all of Europe) consume between 2 and 7 kW per capita. How and to what degree this pattern of energy consumption will change depends on which of the various scenarios of growth rate projection will come true, related to the subsystems of our planet'.

Djojohadikusumo's long speech went on to underline ' . . . the uneven distribution of resources, particularly ... nuclear, coal (manifest as fluidised bed combustion, gasification, liquefaction, MHD) oil shale, tar sands and solar. North America, Australia and the Soviet Union (the "Euro-Asian landmass") have reportedly the largest share of such resources, especially coal, whereas the poorer countries comprising most of Asia, Africa and Latin America have none'.

What had been taken for granted up to this point was that in accepting the limitation of fuels availability around the globe there had been no question that emergent nations, to achieve Western standards of living, would need to consume more energy per head than the established nations would need to maintain the low rates of growth evident

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in recent years of unprecedented traderecession.

Reminder of this major issue in fuelsavailability was salutary. The point hadpassed without comment in alldiscussions, where stress had beenplaced on the need for economy andconservation. The cynical might doubtthe idea of Europe or the USA rationingfuel for cars so that poorer countriesmight develop their garbage collection,taxi services, heavy transport, etc. Theproblem of determining real need will bea global as well as a national one, whichthe World Energy Conference (WEC)will have to help solve in practical ways.Speakers were subjected to a lengthyprocess of examination, elimination andrecommendation. The WECConservation Commission will soon beseen as a greater force than was perhapsoriginally envisaged.

National policiesNational energy policies are still inthe making for almost all countries,although the aligned nations of theEastern bloc gave the impression thesepolicies were established normsdeveloping into successful patterns. Oneof the earliest papers in which nationalpolicy appeared to dominate aparticular level of development oftechnical activity was where GDRopencast mining was described by K.Strzodka, Professor of Mining at theFreiberg Mining Academy. Brown coalreserves of 20 billion tons dominated theGDR’s energy scene. In dealing withrecultivation the Republic’sconstitutional requirement forreinstatement is quoted in a heavilyaccented political context.

Canada has similar problems indealing with the recovery of tar sands inAlberta. Describing extractiontechniques which cost $39 per tonne fordirect operating costs in 1976 for theGreat Canadian enterprise and $15 pertonne for Syncrude capital expenditure,the authors Bowman and Govierconcluded ‘ . ..in the longer term, sayfrom 1995 on, improved technology andreduced world supply of conventionalcrude oil relat ive to total worldrequirements, will likely lead todevelopment, literally at the maximumrate Alberta is prepared to authorise; thiscould result in new production of 7000.14 000 TPCD; it will not be large in a

world perspective but it will representmuch of the growth in Canada’srequirements’.

West Germany, which in contrast tothe GDR is limited to deep coal mines,in some cases deeper than 800 m, hasless than 50 producing units but isclaimed to be the most effective in theEEC. The use of this coal is clearlydefined - for steelworks coke, includingexport to neighbouring countries, forelectricity production and somedomestic use. At least 33 million tonnesper year are needed to reducedependence on fuel imports.

Energy use balancesRomania has increased i ts con-sumption of primary fuels in the last20 years to a per capita level of 700 kg,in spite of nationalization andconservation measures. The use oflignite in power production is a majorstep towards reducing consumption. Aseries of power units with 330 MWcondensing turbines for use at fuelsources is planned, together with a largenumber of combined hear and powerunits. Strip mining for lignite increased4.5 times in 1965-75. In spite of highinvestment costs and lower output, theuse of lignite and shales is competitivewith the high price of imported liquidfuels.

A paper on combined heat and powerin Romania, by leaders of nationalresources administration, described theevolution of policies during the past 30years. Combined heat and power (CH& P) achieves two main objectives -fuel savings and centralized heating withpositive effects on living standards, andlimitation of environmental pollution.Standardizat ion of 50 MW back-pressure units and extraction-condensing units has led to a total of 40installations in the last two years. Oneof these is a Romanian-produced 150MW CH & P turbine working at 19.2MPa, 540°C/540”C. More than onethird of the thermal capaci ty ofRomania’s generation comes from CH8t P producing plant.

Professor Momcilo Simonovic ofYugoslavia opened his paper on the useof low calorific coal with a reference tohis country’s economic developmentand an increase in primary energyconsumption of 1.6 times. In 10 yearsthe energy use balance has changed

ENERGY POLICY December 1977

Conference report

from 72% to 42% coal (although coalproduction has increased by aboutIO%), from 5.5% to 7% hydro, andfrom 28% to 51% for other fuels.Electricity consumption increased 2.7times. As in Romania, production oflignite is to be speeded up. Coal makesup 84% of Yugoslav fuel reserves, while‘raw fuel’ and natural gas account for6%, hydro 0.6%, and bituminous shales9.2%. Lignite represents 83% of the coalreserves.

Indonesia has some energy reservesbut no specific means of assessment.Estimates vary widely, but the mostoptimistic figure claims some 2.5% oftotal world oil reserves, 1.5% of gas and0.3% of coal. Uranium deposits in WestKalimantan are being surveyed incooperation with the French AtomicEnergy Commission. Much work hasyet to be done by external energyadvisers before the demand-resourcesexport-import picture can be determinedwith any clarity and precision. A factorlikely to change and affect all forecasts isthe per capita demand - 20 billion J in2000, categorized as ‘meagre’.

The Argentine is at present self-sufficient in energy. At the last analysisit was broken down as 1.7% nuclear,2.4% coal, 4.2% hydro, .5.79/o woodand charcoal (falling from 13.6% in 10years), 22.7% natural gas, and 62.3%oil. Annual growth rate is given as 5%.‘Policies and general rules’, it issuggested, should be improved toreverse present trends. Coal miningmust be increased, more nuclear plantsbuilt, and big hydro plants developed.Energy economy is considered essential,with extensive national publicitycampaigns by the State Secretariat ofEnergy.

African surveyZambia has undertaken an overall

survey of resources and demands inAfrica south of the equator. There isabundant potential in most fuels andhigh potent ial for expansion ofhydropower. Oil reserves could bebetter used, but greater efforts should beput into processing oil from coal andtimber, and methanol from timber forroad transport.

Belgium imports more than 90% ofits energy. It cannot increase coalproduction significantly, and is aimingat a 15% nuclear contribution by 1985,

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Conference report

with cooperation with West Germany and France in fast breeder developments.

Mexico, somewhat complacent from having started oil nationalization in 1938, can satisfy its own demands despite growth in consumption of 8.2% per year. Its energy policy declaration is familiar - to diversify to reduce dependency on oil and gas, to coordinate energy planning, develop local manufacture and increase research and development.

Some future plans The developing countries' energy problems were surveyed by four Yugoslavs from university research departments. They do not agree with any estimates of future consumption. However, they agree that WEC contributions can help provide a clearer picture, and suggest that OUN (UNPD, UNIDO) and IBRD could assist with the finance needed. The most significant problem is not of energy sources but of technical and especially financial cooperation.

Hungary forecasts growth of 4% a year up to 1990 with no change in emphasis on energy use except for the first USSR built 1800 MW BWR nuclear plant, a date for which is not given. Discussions are being held with Czechoslovakia to investigate more hydro plant on the river Danube. Later fuel economies are planned, together with close cooperation with the Comecon countries.

Turkey's energy plans seem subject to considerable discussion and little decision. The most likely course of action is greatly to increase hydro production and to exploit lignite deposits which could add 9000 MW of thermal capacity. The main difficulties are transmission distances to load centres - 600-800 km for Istanbul and Ankara.

Taiwan, with 16 million inhabitants in an area of 36 000 km 2 has achieved 'brilliant economic growth' in the last decade - 16% per year industrial development. A six-year plan, launched in 1976, aims at improvement of the industrial structure and also improvement in agriculture, expansion of internal t ranspor t and communications, development of central mountain areas and energy

resources, promotion of external trade, development of the defence industry, financial support for economic development, and the maintenance of price stability. Little is said about energy or fuel imports. Great reliance is placed on external trading to maintain national viability, but by 1990 oil imports are estimated to exceed present consumption by more than three times, when imports of energy will amount to 91.5% of consumption.

Venezuelan crude extraction can only be justified economically when the world price for oil exceeds the very costly investment repayment for producing usable oils from the Orinoco heavy crudes. Although these are fluid, special steaming or solvent extraction methods are essential. But even at only 10% recovery, which is technically feasible at reasonable cost, 100000 million bbl are recoverable - representing about 15% of known world reserves. This estimate is thought to be extremely conservative and the recovery factor pessimistic.

USSR claims The internal energy policies of the USSR were brought out in a series of eight papers. 'Oil and gas in the eastern regions of the USSR, by a team of top planners, claimed greater oil production in 1975 than in any other count ry-490 million tons. 1980 production is estimated at 640 million tons. Fractured English precluded understanding of precise meanings - for example, ' . . . the system of compulsory treatment of drilling solutions has been used'. Does this mean that to overcome difficulties drilling muds have become the norm, or that muds, used routinely elsewhere and perhaps in USSR holes also as routine, have had to have special, unspecified, additives? Apart from such translation hitches, these papers were frank and informative.

Much more information is now available on combined heat and power in the USSR. The technique is being rapidly expanded. In the period 1976- 80, 17 GW of new CH & P capacity is planned - a colossal amount by any standards. This was expanded as a major item of energy policy in a paper by academicians M.A. Styrikovitch and A.E. Sheindlin that put their country's technological achievement into world

perspective. A further paper described progress in very large CH & P units. 300 MW units are usual, and a 500 MW MHD set using coal is planned for early 1980 in the Moscow district. In 1975 30 mtce were saved by CH & P working - about 10% of overall fuel usage in electricity generation.

Further Soviet papers which presented nuclear and fusion policies described the Bilibino CH & P nuclear plant and the changes in the fuel-energy balance introduced by nuclear power. The Soviet Power Minister claimed for the USSR almost one fifth of world nuclear capacity with a rate of growth 1.5 times the world average. Increase of nuclear facilities to save fossil fuels is planned, which will include much more nuclear for CH & P. Steam is not yet available at high enough temperatures for many process industries, but the Soviets are working on it. Very little was disclosed on fast breeder plans.

Coal in the USSR was not dealt with at length, but a short paper predicted that fusion would be feasible in the 1980s, though a 'lot more time' was necessary for solution of the problem.

Solar, wind, tidal and biomass energy occupy a minimal position every- where but India and Nepal are taking the potential seriously. J.C. Shah, the chairman and chief executive of the Indian Atomic Power Authority, said that for countries like his the largest single contribution that could be made to the energy problem would come from an innovation that would have consequences reaching further than energy alone. He referred to biological disposal/energy producing plants that would serve two additional purposes - one to improve the environment in the scattered village communities of the Indian sub-continent, and the other to provide valuable fertilizer for crops.

A.B. Karki, soil scientist of the Department of Agriculture in Nepal, with B.A. Coburn from the American Peace Corps serving in Nepal, described the minimum cost bio-gas digester plant that is now being evaluated in several localities. This is probably the best way to break the vicious circle that begins with depleting forests for fuel, continues with the use of dried dung, and ends with soil depleted of nourishment. The Nepalese have shown that ambient temperature controls gas production,

346 ENERGY POLICY December 1977

but seasonal and altitudinal fluctuation needs constant, well-trained observation and care. Low temperatures can be compensated for by using spent dung/night soil to compost other organic farm arisings in annular pits to maintain temperature. The skill required may be no more than a farming community could absorb and exploit as another agrarian crop - energy to add to surface and root produce.

Two outstanding achievements of the previous meeting in Detroit in 1974 were the foundation of the International

Energy Agency, which has just held a meeting in Paris of the governing body at ministerial level, and the WEC Conservation Commission that now operates permanently from Vienna. The latter has been responsible for a series of executive reports ~ that must be taken very seriously indeed. The task of preparing these reports was given to individuals representing the most expert and authoritative opinion available. The reports, presented to the Istanbul meeting as personal opinions, are qualified as subject to revision following

Conference report~Book reviews

discussions during the meeting and then formal adoption at a later convocation of the Commission.

Norman Jenkins Farnham

Surrey, UK

1WEC Conservat ion Commission executive reports: (1) Oil resources; (2) National gas resources; (3) Coal resources; (4) Nuclear resources: (5) Unconventional energy resources; (6) World energy demand. Executive summaries to be published in early 1978 by IPC Science and Technology Press, Guildford, UK.

Book reviews

ENERGY FUTURES: Industry and the New Technologies

Stewar t W. Herman and James C. Cannon wi th INFORM Inc

672 pp, $45.00, Ballinger Publishing Co, Cambridge, Mass, 1977

This is quite an absorbing book; indeed, at times it is compulsively readable. It has pace, gossip, a minimum of turgid technicalities, and a great deal of information on what US industry is doing in energy research and development and where businessmen think they are heading. It is journalism, albeit on a gigantic scale. Its strength is that it makes its subject immediately accessible. Its weakness is that it is already dating badly in places, and that in its necessarily cursory treatment of complex technology it slips occasionally into nonsense - for example, a tokomak is described as containing a plasma 'in much the same way a tube is held inside a tire'.

INFORM Inc is a non-profit organization set up in 1973 to 'study the social role and impact of US industries'. This survey of commercial developments in alternative energy technologies began in 1973 and ended in early 1976. Researchers interviewed hundreds of firms about their activities,

attitudes, investment plans and prospects.

There are 17 chapters, each covering a different technology. The range is from simple developments in flat plate solar collectors to the billion dollar uncertainties of nuclear fusion. Each chapter provides a general overview of the technology's present state, a summary of the industry's own views on its prospects, and a detailed profile of the firms actively engaged in research and development. Obviously this picture it constantly changing, but there is a considerable value in getting it on the record. Anyone wishing to keep an eye on what is happening will find that the information here provides an excellent starting point. At the minimum, it is very convenient to have the postal addresses of all the leading research and development firms.

The general picture that emerges is of the totally dominant role of the US federal government, acting mainly through ERDA. The financial returns from alternative energy technologies are almost all speculative and long-term - they make little appeal within the planning time scale of business and industry. The only guaranteed financial return comes from working on research and development projects for the government. Free market forces, at the moment, are not bringing forth alternatives to the conventional use of oil, coal, and natural gas. On the

evidence of this survey any major change in dependency on these three fuels, as they are used now, is many decades away.

In solar heating and cooling, most of the technology is ready, or nearly so, for domestic use, but the market is not yet big enough for the large companies to be interested in setting up large-scale production which would bring costs down sufficiently to create a market. Only the government seems capable of breaking this cycle by providing leadership in installing solar systems in the buildings for which it has responsibility.

Solar power stations seem a long way off, but solar cells are showing promise. ERDA's goal is to bring the price of these down to $500/kW by 1985.1 At that price the estimated market is only 500000 kW annually - a rate of penetration which would require a long time to make any major difference to US energy supplies.

Wind power is at tract ing considerable funding - $12 million in the fiscal year 1977. Already NASA has a 100 kW machine operating near Cleveland and plans to construct a 1-5 MW unit at a cost of $7 million in 1978-79. There is also a continuing efforf in the refinement and development of small units. While a place for wind power is seen by all those engaged in its development, no one believes it can be a significant energy provider, on a national scale, within the present century.

At the other end of the scale of technological complexity, fusion research is being supported

ENERGY POLICY December 1977 347