Progress in development of GLobal EMEP MOdelling … · Progress in development of GLobal EMEP...
Transcript of Progress in development of GLobal EMEP MOdelling … · Progress in development of GLobal EMEP...
Progress in development of GLobal EMEP MOdelling System (GLEMOS)
for HMs and POPs
15th TF MM meeting, 8-10 April 2014, Bologna, Italy
Alexey Gusev, Oleg Travnikov, Victor Shatalov, Olga Rozovskaya
Meteorological Synthesizing Centre East
Preparation of input information for the new EMEP domain (meteorological and geophysical data, emissions)
Global modelling using GLEMOS
Adaptation of GLEMOS for regional simulations in the new grid
Pilot simulations in the new grid with high spatial resolution and their evaluation
Refinement of GLEMOS parameterizations
Directions of further work
Current activities on implementation of the new EMEP grid (latitude/longitude)
TFMM, April 2014
Current EMEP domain
Current and New EMEP domains
New EMEP domain peculiarities (e.g. complex orography of Himalayas)
Generation of meteorological input
Land use/land cover information (consistency between EMEP Centres and WGE)
Data on reactants and aerosols in the atmosphere
Generation of data on sea currents
Data on underlying surface characteristics and vegetation (LAI, OM content, …)
Preparation of model input data for the new EMEP domain
TFMM, April 2014
Geophysical data (Orography)Geophysical data (Orography)
Meteorological input (Precipitation)Meteorological input (Precipitation)
Land cover (Forests and shrubs)Land cover (Forests and shrubs)
Emission data for regional modelling:
Time-series of gridded annual emissions
Intra-annual variations of emissions
Emissions to other environmental media
Speciation for Hg, congener composition for POPs
Vertical distribution
Secondary sources (re-suspension, re-volatilization)
Natural emissions
Preparation of emissions for HMs and POPs
TFMM, April 2014
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ons,
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m2 /d
ay
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B[a]P emissions (Czech Republic)
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20%
TCD
F12
PeC
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23P
eCD
F14
HxC
DF
16H
xCD
F23
HxC
DF
19H
xCD
F78
HpC
DF
89H
pCD
FO
CD
FTC
DD
PeC
DD
4HxC
DD
6HxC
DD
7HxC
DD
HpC
DD
OC
DD
40%
PCDD/F emissions composition
PCDD/F emission(UNEP, 68 countries)
Land10%
Residue34%
Air45%
Water2%
Product9%
Preparation of emissions for HMs and POPs
TFMM, April 2014
0 0.1 0.3 1 3 10 30 100 g/km2/y 0 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.3 1 2 5 mg TEQ/km2/y
Hg
Global emission inventories:Global Hg emissions inventory for 2010 (AMAP/UNEP, 2013)
Global PCB emissions inventory for 1930-2100 (Breivick, 2007)
Global PCDD/F emissions inventory based on UNEP Toolkit, 1999-2009 (Fiedler et al., 2007, 2012)
Scenario of global HCB emissions 1945-2012 (MSC-E)
PCDD/Fs
Pollution of EMEP domain by global sources
Boundary conditions for EMEP domain
Initial concentrations in media within EMEP domain
Contributions of non-EMEP anthropogenic and secondary emissionsInfluence of EMEP emissions on other regions (e.g. Arctic)
TFMM, April 2014
EMEP pollution by different sources types
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20%
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100%
Pb Cd HgBaP
PCDD/FsHCBPCB
EMEPanthropogenic
Globalanthropogenic
Secondarysources
Hg deposition (2010)
EMEPEMEP
Global scale modellingprovides:
Simulated Hg annual deposition in 2010 (GLEMOS)
Intercontinental transport of HgSource-receptor modelling experiments (TF HTAP)
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Hg
depo
sitio
nflu
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/km
2 /y
North America
Europe
South AsiaEast Asia
South East AsiaAustralia and New Zealand
AfricaMiddle East
Mexico & Central AmericaSouth America
CIS countries
ArcticAntarctica
Source/receptor regions:
Source regions
Natural and legacy sources
TFMM, April 2014
Source apportionment of Hg deposition (2010)
Experimental modelling (in lat/lon projection) using UNEP Stockholm Convention data on PCDD/F emissions
National inventories of PCDD/F emissions of 68 countries (PCDD/F Toolkit)Expert estimates for other countries using regression analysisEmission inventories cover the period ~1999-2009Scenario of emissions includes PCDD/F releases to air and soil
EMEP pollution by PCDD/F global sources
TFMM, April 2014
PCDD/F air concentrations for 2012
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 2.5 10 50 fg TEQ/m3
EMEPEMEPOther 19%
EMEP Secondary
20%EMEP
Anthropogenic 61%
Contributions of EMEP and other sources
PCB-153 air concentrations for 2012
EMEP pollution by global PCB and HCB sources
TFMM, April 2014
0 0.02 0.07 0.12 0.25 0.5 1 2.5 pg/m3
0 3 7 14 22 50 80 100 pg/m3
HCB air concentrations for 2012
EMEPEMEP
EMEPEMEP
Other 33%
EMEP Secondary
56%
EMEP Anthropogenic
11%
Other 25%
EMEP Secondary
44%
EMEP Anthropogenic
31%
Contributions of EMEP and other sources
HCB
PCB-153
Simulated annual Hg deposition flux (July 2010)
Global(1°×1°)
Regional(0.2°×0.2°)
Pilot model simulations for Hg in the new EMEP grid
TFMM, April 2014
Map of simulated Hg wet deposition and comparison with EMEP measurements (July 2010)
Hg wet deposition (0.2°×0.2°) and locations of EMEP monitoring sites
Evaluation of pilot modelling results
TFMM, April 2014
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Observed, g/km2/y
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GlobalRegional
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Global (1°x1°) and regional (0.2°x0.2°) Hg
wet deposition vs. EMEP measurements
There is ongoing work on the comparison with modelling results
for currently used EMEP domain
Hg modelled concentration vs. measurements at Waldhof (DE2)
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Hg(
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Obs Model (global) Model (regional)Particulate Hg
DE2
Location of Waldhof site
Underlying map – Hg anthropogenic emissions
(0.2°x0.2°)
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Comparison of hourly Hg concentration, January 2010
Evaluation of pilot modelling results
TFMM, April 2014
Location of Waldhof site
DE2
Underlying map – Hg anthropogenic emissions
(1°x1°)
Obs Model (1°x1°) Model (1°x1°)
Fine resolution modelling of HMs
TFMM, April 2014
Netherlands, 5x5 km2
Czech Republic, 5x5 km2
Croatia, 10x10 km2
Pb, Cd deposition in the Netherlands, Croatia, and
the Czech Republic
Country-specific case studies:
Preparation of fine scale model input data
Nesting from regional to local scale
Comparison of modelling results with fine resolution national measurements
Application of inverse modelling for the analysis of discrepancies
Improvement of model parameterizations when modelling with fine resolution
Further development of GLEMOSElaboration of multi-media model approach for Hg
General cycling of Hg in the oceanDevelopment of model parameterizations:
• Air-water exchange of Hg between the atmosphere and the ocean
• Hg oxidation and reduction under solar and dark conditions
• Hg adsorption by suspended particulate matter and colloids
• Methylation and demethylation(biotic and abiotic)
Literature survey of Hg processes in seawater is in press in Ocean Science Discussion (Batrakova et al., 2014)
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C / C1
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ght,
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Hg(II)part
5 m
Lowest model layer
Further development of GLEMOSSub-grid vertical distribution of air concentration
Vertical profile of Hg content in airMotivation:
Significant vertical gradients of highly reactive species near the ground
Approach:
1)()( −++= )RRz(RzV cbadry
cbrefa
cbaref
RRRRRzRCzC
++++
=)()(
constzCzVzF drydry =⋅= )()()(
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Hg(
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ObservationsModel (1st layer)Model (5 m)
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Further development of GLEMOSParameterizations of POP sorption on aerosols and degradation in
particulate phase
TFMM, April 2014
Sorbed on
mineral aerosol
10%
Gaseous
18%
Sorbed on OC40%
Sorbed on EC32%
Motivation:
Differences between modelled and measured seasonal air concentrations
Modifications:
• Inclusion of POP sorption mechanisms to different components of aerosol particles (mineral part, OC, EC)
• Inclusion of POP degradation in particulate phase Distribution of B[a]P in
air between different phases at 10 ºC
(background regions)
Further development of GLEMOS
TFMM, April 2014
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CorrRel. bias
Improvement of agreement between modelled and measured B[a]P concentrations
B[a]P in air
Previous parameterizationsModified parameterizations
Parameterizations of POP sorption on aerosols and degradation inparticulate phase
Motivation:
Differences between modelled and measured seasonal air concentrations
Modifications:
• Inclusion of POP sorption mechanisms to different components of aerosol particles (mineral part, OC, EC)
• Inclusion of POP degradation in particulate phase
Preparation of GLEMOS for public use
GLEMOS features:Multi-scale consistent approach (from global to local)Multi-pollutant formulation (HMs, POPs, aerosol, ...)Multi-media model approachFlexible modular architecture
Base model domains: EMEP and global
Main components of distribution:Free access to the model code (GPLv3) Model documentation and user guideInput data for test model runsExamples of the model applications (Hg and POPs)Web portal for support of public access and use of the model by countries
TFMM, April 2014
GLEMOS
Simulated Hg annual deposition in 2010 (GLEMOS)
Dissemination of resultsSource attribution of Hg deposition to fishing areas (2010)
Hg
depo
sitio
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/y2
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- Hg deposition flux
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Fish
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- Total marine capture fisheriesproduction (FAO, 2013)
FAO fishing areas
18 - Arctic Sea21 - Northwest Atlantic27 - Northeast Atlantic31 - Western Central Atlantic34 - Eastern Central Atlantic37 - Mediterranean and Black Sea41 - Southwest Atlantic47 - Southeast Atlantic48 - Antarctic Atlantic51 - Western Indian Ocean57 - Eastern Indian Ocean58 - Antarctic Indian Ocean61 - Northwest Pacific67 - Northeast Pacific71 - Western Central Pacific77 - Eastern Central Pacific81 - Southwest Pacific87 - Southeast Pacific88 - Antarctic Pacific
Dissemination of results
TFMM, April 2014
Results of Hg pollution assessment were used during preparation of UNEP Minamata Convention
Directions of further activities
Transition to the lat/lon grid with fine resolution
Improvement of ocean module and multi-media approach
Source apportionment of HM and POP pollution over longer periods (tagging of accumulation and media exchange)
Evaluation of secondary sources contributions (re-volatilization and re-suspension)
Focus of the assessment output on evaluation of HM and POP impacts on human health and ecosystems
Enhancement of co-operation with international organizations (UNEP Minamata and Stockholm Conventions, AMAP)
TFMM, April 2014