Program in Water Conflict Management Oregon State ... · conflict and cooperation. Oregon State...

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Aaron T Wolf, PhD Program in Water Conflict Management Oregon State University, USA International Symposium on Water Diplomacy Stockholm, Sweden 16-17 November 2016 EMAIL: [email protected] WWW.TRANSBOUNDARYWATERS.ORST.EDU

Transcript of Program in Water Conflict Management Oregon State ... · conflict and cooperation. Oregon State...

Page 1: Program in Water Conflict Management Oregon State ... · conflict and cooperation. Oregon State University. Program in Water Conflict Management and Transformation. Professional/Graduate

Aaron T Wolf, PhDProgram in Water Conflict Management

Oregon State University, USA

International Symposium on Water DiplomacyStockholm, Sweden

16-17 November 2016

EMAIL: [email protected]

Page 2: Program in Water Conflict Management Oregon State ... · conflict and cooperation. Oregon State University. Program in Water Conflict Management and Transformation. Professional/Graduate

Aaron T Wolf, PhDProgram in Water Conflict Management

Oregon State University, USA

International Symposium on Water DiplomacyStockholm, Sweden

16-17 November 2016

EMAIL: [email protected]

Page 3: Program in Water Conflict Management Oregon State ... · conflict and cooperation. Oregon State University. Program in Water Conflict Management and Transformation. Professional/Graduate
Page 4: Program in Water Conflict Management Oregon State ... · conflict and cooperation. Oregon State University. Program in Water Conflict Management and Transformation. Professional/Graduate

Aaron T Wolf, PhDProgram in Water Conflict Management

Oregon State University, USA

International Symposium on Water DiplomacyStockholm, Sweden

16-17 November 2016

EMAIL: [email protected]

Page 5: Program in Water Conflict Management Oregon State ... · conflict and cooperation. Oregon State University. Program in Water Conflict Management and Transformation. Professional/Graduate

• Promotes a global water governance culture

• Facilitates“customized” solutions

• Enhance cooperation among stakeholders.

• 17 partners on five continents.

A state-of-the-art GIS collection of international river basins

Online databases documenting transboundary water treaties & events

Can be used to better understand water-related conflict and cooperation

Oregon State UniversityProgram in Water Conflict Management and Transformation

Professional/Graduate Certificate Program

Transboundary Freshwater Dispute

Database (TFDD)

Universities Partnership for Transboundary

Waters

Certificate• Skill-building training• Practicum and real-world

problem solving

Collaborative Facilitations and Mediations

• Skills-building workshops to promote cooperationbetween stakeholders

Page 6: Program in Water Conflict Management Oregon State ... · conflict and cooperation. Oregon State University. Program in Water Conflict Management and Transformation. Professional/Graduate

Framework for AnalysisBenefits, Risks, and Opportunities

Political Opportunity

Political Risk

EconomicBenefit

Economic Cost

Countries may pursue unilateral development given

high risks and high costs

Countries most likelyto make a deal

Countries likely to consider a deal; risk reduction and

opportunity enhancementwould improve likelihood

Countries likely to consider a deal; benefit expansion would improve likelihood

Source: Subramanian, Brown & Wolf 2013

Page 7: Program in Water Conflict Management Oregon State ... · conflict and cooperation. Oregon State University. Program in Water Conflict Management and Transformation. Professional/Graduate

Framework for AnalysisBenefits, Risks, and Opportunities

Political Opportunity

Political Risk

EconomicBenefit

Economic Cost

Countries may pursue unilateral development given

high risks and high costs

Countries most likelyto make a deal

Countries likely to consider a deal; risk reduction and

opportunity enhancementwould improve likelihood

Countries likely to consider a deal; benefit expansion would improve likelihood

Source: Subramanian, Brown & W

DIPLOMACYWATER

Page 8: Program in Water Conflict Management Oregon State ... · conflict and cooperation. Oregon State University. Program in Water Conflict Management and Transformation. Professional/Graduate

What have academics learned (while everyone else was doing all the work…)?

1. More cooperation than conflict; water as entry way to dialogue

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Increasing Conflict

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2. Relationships are more complicated than events -> water interactions3. Not all conflict is bad, not all cooperation is good4. Agreements can solidify power imbalances: “hydro-hegemony”

London School (Zeitoun, Mirumachi, et al.):

Page 10: Program in Water Conflict Management Oregon State ... · conflict and cooperation. Oregon State University. Program in Water Conflict Management and Transformation. Professional/Graduate

• Hydro-hegemony ? -> Counter-hegemony (Petersen-Perlman)

• Polluter pays? ->Whoever has $$ pays

• Transparency?-> “creative ambiguity”

• RBO? Not necessarily• Basin-wide agreement? Ditto

You do what works, now

Everything you thought you knew is wrong:Politics is the art of the possible, or

Page 11: Program in Water Conflict Management Oregon State ... · conflict and cooperation. Oregon State University. Program in Water Conflict Management and Transformation. Professional/Graduate

Lesson 1:Hydro-politics is about hydro AND politics…and all politics is local

(or, countries don’t make decisions, people do)

Page 12: Program in Water Conflict Management Oregon State ... · conflict and cooperation. Oregon State University. Program in Water Conflict Management and Transformation. Professional/Graduate

Hydromet (1961), entirely technical, eventually led to: Undugu (1983), and, Tecconile (1993) – annual academic meeting, and finally to: Nile Basin Initiative

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Lesson 2:If you get stuck on a problem,make it bigger…

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Dams andHydroelectricSchemes

Source: UNEP/DEWA/GRID-Europe 2006

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Regional PowerDevelopmentStrategy

Source: NBI RPTP 2011

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Lesson 3:If you get stuck on a problem,make it bigger…...or smaller

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Manage through Existing Institutions?

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Negotiated Basin Development Space Environmental Sensitivity Rankings

(Reflecting Interest and Values)

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Negotiated Basin Development Space Development Pressure Rankings

(Reflecting Interest and Values)

Green Least ImpactOrange More ImpactRed Most Impact

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Lesson 4:Secrecy is dead…

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LESSON 5:Don’t forget the spirit –and fun! – of water

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Water is sexy!!

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Balance in Conflict

Justice/SelfMercy/Other

Compassion

Anger/The Other Side

Universal?

Al-Hakam/Father

Ar-Rahman/Son

Ar-Rahim/Holy Spirit

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Yin Yang

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Sulha: Reconciliation• From musalaha, reconciliation: hostilities ended, honor re-

established, and peace restored in the community. • Two basic elements: rights and honor.• Tarrahdhin: “Resolution of a conflict that involves no

humiliation.”

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Kampung Spirit: Singapore Kindness Movement

• Spirit of neighborliness of village life• Being revived for vertical living • Community Mediation Centre – 70% of cases resolved

• Community Disputes Resolution Tribunals, since Oct. 2015

Page 46: Program in Water Conflict Management Oregon State ... · conflict and cooperation. Oregon State University. Program in Water Conflict Management and Transformation. Professional/Graduate
Page 47: Program in Water Conflict Management Oregon State ... · conflict and cooperation. Oregon State University. Program in Water Conflict Management and Transformation. Professional/Graduate

NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL POLICY STATEMENT for Freshwater Management 2014

“Addressing tangata whenua values and interests across all of the well-beings, and including the involvement of iwi and hapu in the overall management of fresh water, are key to meeting obligations under the Treaty of Waitangi (1840).”

All things in the natural world have mauri (life force) and wairua (a spiritual dimension). Respect for the spiritual integrity of the environment and the atua (God) that created it will ensure that the taonga (treasure) can be protected and passed on to succeeding generations.

Page 48: Program in Water Conflict Management Oregon State ... · conflict and cooperation. Oregon State University. Program in Water Conflict Management and Transformation. Professional/Graduate

Thank you!