Profitable pathways to sustainable electrical

systems. Conditions for change in 3 countries

Thor Øivind Jensen, University of Bergen (Paper with Antonio Bothelo, Clifford Shearing, Melani van der Merwe, Tom Skauge All in the SANCOOP energy transition project)

9th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change Promitheas/KEPA, Athens, Oct 2016

Background • Project: The SANCOOP project: Transition to Sustainable Energ y Systems in Emerging

Economies. A South African Focused Comparative Project. Financed by the Norwegian and South African Research councils 2014-2017. Countries included are Brazil, China, India and South Africa

• The Anthropocene challenge and our new possibilities and responsibilities • The question

• 4 countries with rapid change, huge energy needs and probably the key for changing the global trends • Sustainable technologies and knowledge are ready. : Relative small, standardized, low running costs, well

adapted to market forces. (Old technology expensive, delays, need much support) • What are the political and organizational factors for change, for enrolling market forces in the change?

A few imortant concepts

• From the niches to regime in the sociotechnical landscape (Geels)

• Path dependence, lock-ins (institutional theory)

• AMP : Awareness, Motivations, Pathways for change (regulation, support)

• The power of manufacturing (standardization, market) in transformation (Mathews) and creative destruction in techonology systems (Schumpeter)

South Africa • A clear energy history: Early, coal based., cheap electricity+workforce, mining industry, electricity for

whites only, state based • Democracy and «electricity for all», lack of core investments (1994----) • Supply crises, high prices, coal also a sustainability problem (2008----) • Sustainable only in niches , but good possibilities (wind/solar/workforce)

• Some sucessful auction wind systems (REIPPP) into the system • Some market growth in rooftop PV for companies • State invests in big coal and nuclear, but costs and delays and finace problems

• Big coal has strong path dependence and many lock-ins : • Municipal income system, regulation setup , state and mining centralized interests

• Several scenarios: 1. Creative destruction (Schumpeter) 2. The coal based and nuclear centralized regime wins (need help) 3. A sustainable, decentralized structure releases market forces,

Brazil

• Clear sustainable (big) hydroelectric supply history, strong path

• Gradually problems with big hydro (Amazon environment, political, economical), possible end of path

• Sucessfull new wind path established , government regulation reforms, (partly) national manucturing , wind now chaper than hydro

• Only small movements in solar and small hydro

• NEW PATHS CAN BE DEVELOPED BY POLITICS

China

• History of rapid growth, economic strength, central planning tradition • Big coal, Big hydro

• Motivation for change: Significant pollution problems + Anthropocene awareness + manufacturing possibilities and more growth. R & D in all directions

• Central planning + economic incentives+market export possibilities • Wind path established and strong use (with some bottlenecks) • Solar path established as manufacturing and use • Implemented into the established grid structure (=big) • Coal path is reduced, but not stopped (CO2 emissions have peaked) • China has suceeded in handling the energy problem and sustabnibility challenge while making money and growth on it

Summing up: lock-ins and paths for change

• Lock-ins • Public income entangled with energy

• Regulation traps and regulation for centralized big grid production

• Institutional forces (unions, expertise, ideology, economic interests)

• Paths for change • Motivation combinations

• Links with new manufacturing, economic possibilities

• Regulative change and incentives programmes

• Building new path dependences

• Can we be responsible Anthropocene actors ? Yes, solutions are in the market and political spheres, especially in their combination

(and some reflections on Norway)

*100 % hydro and stable, big profits due to low cost, well run *Strong economy from oil *Easy new possibilities: wind, wave, small hydro, some solar. Niches ready *Electricity use 2.0: Export, hydrogen, cars, buses, ferries, lorries etc *Change away from oil creating new jobs locigal, but several lock-ins : *Energy export will give high consumer prices (regulatory challenge) *Oil got all investments and priority when problems started (resource economy) *Oil have the strong players that press government (institutional lock-in)