Profiles and Projections Latino Children Today and Tomorrow Linda A. Jacobsen Population Reference...
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Transcript of Profiles and Projections Latino Children Today and Tomorrow Linda A. Jacobsen Population Reference...
Profiles and ProjectionsLatino Children Today and Tomorrow
Linda A. Jacobsen
Population Reference Bureau
NCLR Symposium
October 22, 2009
The Number and Share of All Children Who Are Latino Is Growing Rapidly
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and National Center for Health Statistics
Components of Population Change: 2007-2008
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Latino Women Average about Three Children
2.1
1.9
2.6
3.0
2.02.2
2.1
1.9
2.1
3.0
1.91.8
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
U.S. Total White non-Hispanic
Black non-Hispanic
Hispanic Asian/PacificIslander
American Indian
1990 2006Source: National Center for Health Statistics
Distribution of Children by Race and Ethnicity: 1990, 2008, and 2030
*Non-Hispanic. Estimates for 2008 and 2030 for Whites, Blacks and Others are for those who identify with only one race.Source: U.S. Census Bureau and National Center for Health Statistics
Source: PRB analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 Decennial Census.
In 1990, Latino Children Were Primarily Concentrated in the Southwest and Florida
Source: PRB analysis of data from U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics; “Bridged-Race Vintage 2008 Postcensal Estimates,” prepared in collaboration with U.S. Census Bureau.
Today, Latinos Make Up an Increasing Share of Children in the Midwest and Southeast
Latino Youth Have Significant Potential to Contribute to their Communities and the U.S.
34 percent of Latinos are under age 18
Most children are born in the U.S. and most are U.S. citizens (9 in 10)
Strong families: almost two-thirds (66%) live with two parents
Latino Children and Youth Also Face Some Significant Challenges
Economic Security
Education
Health
Language Barriers
Economic Security
More than one-fourth live in poverty
Three-fifths (60%) live in low-income families (below 200% of poverty)
Education
More than one-fourth of Latino 4 year-olds are not enrolled in early childhood education programs
Only 55 percent of ninth graders graduate from high school on time
Health
One in five (19%) do not have health insurance
Among children ages 10 to 17, about 4 in every 10 (41%) are overweight or obese
Language Barriers
One-fourth live in linguistically isolated households
Almost one-fifth (18%) have difficulty speaking English
If These Challenges are not Addressed, What Are the Implications?
Two Possible Scenarios:
Current risk factors (rates) remain unchanged from now until 2030
Current risk factors (rates) change between now and 2030
Latino Children Will Make Up a Larger Share of All Children in High Risk Groups
Scenario One: Same Rates In 2030
Share Today Share in 2030
In poverty 32% 44%
Low-income families 31% 44%
Linguistically isolated 65% 74%
Overweight or obese 22% 37%
No health insurance 42% 56%
Source: PRB analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau.
Latino Child Poverty Declined in the 1990s, But Has Risen Again in Recent Years
Scenario Two: Potential Changes
Child Poverty RateWhat if it rose to 1990 level of 38 percent?
Share of Children Overweight/ObeseWhat if it increases by an additional 3 percentage
points to 44 percent?
Share of Children without Health InsuranceWhat if it decreases by an additional 2 percentage
points to 17 percent?
How Many Latino Children Could be Affected?
Today* 2030*
In poverty 4.1 10.2
Overweight or obese 2.2 5.2
No health insurance 2.7 4.6
*In millions
Stay Tuned in 2010!
NCLR State-Level Report
Regional Variations
in Well-Being and
Key Trends Since 2000