Prof Rob WIlson (University of Warwick) - Using Labour Force Survey to measure and anticipate...
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Transcript of Prof Rob WIlson (University of Warwick) - Using Labour Force Survey to measure and anticipate...
40 years of using the LFS to assess and anticipate
changing skill needs
Rob Wilson Institute for Employment Research
University of Warwick
The Labour Force Survey: past, present and futureBIS Conference Centre, 1 Victoria Street, London, Thursday 28th November 2013
Overview:
• Skills forecasting in the UK• Measuring skills - classifications and sources• Use of the LFS in assessing changing skills
structures• Key research questions and some answers • Using the LFS in practice – Working Futures• Emerging uses - LMI for All• Caveats and possible future developments
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40 years of UK skills assessment Manpower planning and all that- Britain’s Medium Term
Employment Prospects - the EITB, the TSA & MSC The Thatcher years -Economic change and employment
policy; the Review of the Economy and Employment Evidence based policy – the National Skills Task Force - new
Projections of Occupations and Qualifications The Sector Skills Development Agency and the Learning and
Skills Council- Working Futures UK Commission for Employment and Skills
continuation of Working Futures and - LMI for All Cedefop – pan European Skills Assessments
Measuring skillsOccupations - development of the Standard Occupational Classification (from WOCs to SOCs)
Qualifications - highest formal qualification held
Sources of data on skills Census of Population Other sources (NES, ASHE, etc) LFS
Use of the LFS: Pros & cons.
• Pros: cornerstone of ONS’s LMI strategy increasing availability increasing sample size
• Cons: still limited sample size weakness of proxy responses limitations of a household survey
Key research questions• What drives the supply of skills?• What are the factors influencing the changing demand
for skills?• What is the changing balance between the two?
How we use the LFS in practice• Supply of skills
• monitoring numbers of people available (economically active) and in particular the breakdown by those formally qualified to different levels
• modelling this using various techniques including pseudo cohorts created from the LFS (building stock-flow and related models)
• Demand for skills • changing patterns of employment by occupation and by
highest qualification held, focussing on shares within industries (linked to a multisectoral macroeconomic model)
Use of the LFS: Monitoring key trends
• Sectors (national accounts data)• Occupations within sectors (LFS)• Qualifications (LFS)• Replacement needs also based on LFS
Perceptions of changing skill structure
• 1978 - Britain’s Medium Term Employment Prospects• 1981 - Economic Change & Employment Policy• 1982- 1997 - Review of the Economy & Employment • 1999 -2001 - Projections of Occupations & Qualifications• 2004 - date - Working Futures (1- 5)• From 2006 - pan- European work - use of the EU LFS
Key trends: increasingly well qualified
Increasingly well qualified (% in employment)
TidyProjections of Occupations and Qualifications
Work ing Futures 4
% shares 1981 2010
Postgraduates 1 9First Degree Graduates 6 21All Graduates 7 30
Other highly qualified 6 5All highly qualified 13 34
Not qualified at NVQ level 4 or 5 87 66
All levels 100 100
Key trends: the rise of the professionals
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Polarising job structure (% shares)
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0
1978 (ECEP, UK)
2011 (WF 5, UK)
managers
professionals
associate professionals
clerical
skilled crafts
service occupations
sales occupations
machine operatives
elementary occupations
Recent developments: Open data
• New uses and new demands - LMI for All
aims and objectives - open access to official data to provide useful information for careers guidance and advice;
demand for detail - but conflicts with confidentiality, privacy, statistical reliability
• Filling the data gaps – use of regression analysis and other estimation techniques
Recent developments: The European context• Cedefop pan-European forecasts:
extension of Working Futures to cover 30+ countries based primarily around the Eurostat LFS
Some outstanding problems: where have all the scientists gone?• Census /LFS inconsistencies? Where have all the
professionals (especially scientists gone? • Proxy responses
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
managers
professionals
associate professionals
clerical
skilled crafts
service occupations
sales occupations
machine operatives
elementary occupations
LFS-Census (differences in % employment shares, England and Wales, 2011)
LFS-Census (2011)
Conclusions and possible future developments
• What would we do without the LFS?• How can we improve on it?• Need for an independent employers survey (e.g: US
Occupational Employment Statistics survey)
Working Futures: http://www.ukces.org.uk/search?keywords=Working+Futures+2010-2020&type=allLMI for all: http://www.ukces.org.uk/ourwork/resaerch/lmi/lmi-for-allCedefop pan-European Projections:http://www.cedefop.europa.eu/EN/about-cedefop/projects/forecasting-skill-demand-and-supply/forecasting-skill-demand-and-supply.aspx and :http://www.cedefop.europa.eu/EN/publications/20612.aspx
Further information and links:
Rob Wilson, Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick, COVENTRY, CV4 [email protected]; Tel:+(44) 2476-523530