Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 1Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 1

The IPCC Special Report onRenwables and Climate Change

Prof. Dr. Olav HohmeyerUniversität Flensburg

Former Vice Chair WG III IPCC

CISBAT 2011

EPFL, Lausanne, September 14th-16th 2011

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 2Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 2

Structure of the presentation

• Who or what is the IPCC?• Man-made climate change• Energy – the heart of the problem• Renewable energy sources – the core of

the solution• The IPCC Special Report on Renewables• Conclusions

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

• UN organization with about 190 member states

• Founded 1988 as daughter of WMO and UNEP

• Objective: Regular reports on the latest state of the art in climate science

• Four subject areas and three working groups

• 100 – 200 scientists nominated and selected for each report (representing the best in the field and from all world regions)

• Multiple scientific and government review of each report

• Consensus decision by the IPCC plenary on each report

• Accepted basis for international climate policy

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Man-made climate change

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Source: IPCC 2007a (WG I, SPM, p. 3)

Anthropogenic influences on

climate change

CO2, CH4 and N2O Concentrations

- far exceed pre-industrial values- increased markedly since 1750 due to human activities

Relatively little variation beforethe industrial era

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Increased global temperature change

Source: IPCC 2007a (WG I TS p, 37)

Warmest 12 years since 1850:1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,20

06, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,20

00

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Source: IPCC 2007a (WG I TSp.62)

Anthropogenic and natural forcings

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Time Left to Act

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Source: IPCC 2007a (WG I, SPM p.14)

Projections of future changes in climate

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How much time is left to act?

Source: IPCC 2007 (TS WG III, p. 19)

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Options for Action

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Contributions to cumulated emission reductions until 2030 and 2100

Source: IPCC 2007 (SPM WG III, p. p17)

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Energy

The Heart of the Problem

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Global GHG emissions 1970 to 2004

Source: IPCC 2007 (TS WG III, p. 4)

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Fossil Fuels – the heart of the problem (The case of Germany)

Source: BMU 2003, p. 32 und UBA 2002, p. 31

SF6

N2O

FCKWs

CH4

CO2

Share of GHGs in the FRG in 2000:

• CO2: 87%

• CH4: 6%

• N2O: 6%

• HFCS/PFCS: 1%

• SF6: 0,25%

97% of all CO2 emissions from energy conversion processes!

Fossil fuels represent 85% of the problem

Total GHG emissionsin 2000

990 Mt CO2 eq.

GHG emissions in the FRG in 2000

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Decarbonising the energy systemFour options

• Nuclear energy• Clean fossil fuels (CCS)• Energy efficiency• Renewable energy sources:

– direct solar energy– wind energy– biomass– hydro power– geothermal energy– ocean energy

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The IPCC Special Report onRenewable Energy Sources and Climate

Change Mitigation

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The structure of the SRREN

Source: IPCC 2011 (SPM, SRREN, p. 2)

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The global potential of renewables

Source: IPCC 2011 (SPM, SRREN, p. 8)

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The cost of renewables

Source: IPCC 2011 (SPM, SRREN, p. 10)

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Price development or wind and solar energy

Source: IPCC 2011 (SPM, SRREN, p. 12)

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GHG emissions of electricity generation

Source: IPCC 2011 (SPM, SRREN, p. 17)

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The role of renewables for climate protection

Source: IPCC 2011 (SPM, SRREN, p. 19)

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Renewables and mitigation costs

Source: IPCC 2011 (TS, SRREN, p. 146)

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Conclusions

• Climate change is developing faster than we thought

• GHG concentrations need to be stabilized at even lower levels (440 ppmvCO2) to avoid serious damages

•

• Energy is the heart of the problem

• Renewable energy sources will be a major part of the solution

• Renewables can supply far more than the future world energy demand

• By 2050 they can supply up to 80%

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Thank you for your attention!