Prof. Dr. Lorenz M. Hilty Technology and Society Lab Empa ...€¦ · Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik...
Transcript of Prof. Dr. Lorenz M. Hilty Technology and Society Lab Empa ...€¦ · Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik...
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ICT and Sustainability –
Issues beyond Climate Change
–
Prof. Dr. Lorenz M. HiltyTechnology and Society Lab
Empa Materials Science and Technology St.Gallen, Switzerland
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2Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
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3Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
Overview
1.
Some Facts about ICT
1.
A Life Cycle Perspective
2.
Towards a Conceptual Framework
3.
Conclusion
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4Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
Some Facts about ICT
The ICT sector is responsible for 2 % of global GHG emissions.
ICT is an enabler to improve the energy efficiency of all other sectors and thus to reduce the remaining 98 %.The energy consumption of ICT is growing much faster than that of other sectors:2005-2020 in EU-27: +84 % (ICT) as compared to +15 % (all sectors)
Energy demand ofData centers in Germany
Progress in computing powerper electric powerSource: Mattern 2005
Source: Borderstep Institut 2009
?
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5Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
Some Facts about ICT
ICT is a driver of development:Digital infrastructure overtakes other infrastructures.
ICT is the first technology which depends on more than half of the periodic table.
“We
are
too
poor
not
to invest
in ICT.”Meles Zenawi Asres, Prime Minister of Ethiopia
Source: AFP
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6Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
Some Facts about ICT
Source: Behrendt et al. (2007) and Empa
Input to hardware
production: 12 57 metals in 25 years
Financed civilwar in Kongo
We may need itfor photvoltaics
In future
Welcome to the Club!
Backyard recycling (urban mining)
in poor countries
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7Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
Some Facts about ICT
»
Manual Recycling in Poor
Countries
Hardware Recycling in South Africa
Source: Empa
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8Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
Some Facts about ICT
»
Manual Recycling in Poor
Countries
Source: Empa
Source: Empa Source: Empa
Source: EmpaSource: Empa
Har
dwar
e re
cycl
ing
in G
uiyu
(Chi
na)
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9Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
Some Facts about ICT
»
Manual Recycling in Poor
CountriesH
ardw
are
recy
clin
gin
Del
hi, I
ndia
Source: Empa Source: Empa
Source: EmpaSource: Empa
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10Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
Some Facts about ICT
»
Manual Recycling in Poor
Countries
Manual extraction of copper from printed wiring boards in a typicalbackyard company with 12 workers in Delhi, India. Yield: 1-2 tons/month
Source: Empa
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11Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
Some Facts about ICT
»
Manual Recycling in Poor
Countries
Manual extraction of gold from electronic waste
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12Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
Overview
1.
Some Facts about ICT
1.
A Life Cycle Perspective
2.
Towards a Conceptual Framework
3.
Conclusion
![Page 13: Prof. Dr. Lorenz M. Hilty Technology and Society Lab Empa ...€¦ · Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, lorenz.hilty@empa.ch 3 Overview 1. Some Facts](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051815/603b8ed47a11e24a85700e40/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
A
Life Cycle Perspective
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14Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
A
Life Cycle Perspective
»
PC Example
Example:Environmental Impacts over the life cycle of a desktop PCCalculated in Eco-Indicator Points (EIP) with Life CycleAssessment (LCA) methodology
Source: Eugster, M., Hischier, R., Huabo, D.: Key Environmental Impacts of the Chinese EEE-Industry – A Life Cycle Assessment Study. Empa and Tsinghua University, St.Gallen and Bejing (2007)
-30-20-10
01020304050
P ro d u c tio n T ra n sp o rta tio n U se C H (3 ye a rs) R e c yc lin g C H A v o id e d b u rd e n
Eco-
Indi
cato
r Po
ints
Production
Transport Use
Industrial Avoided(3 years)
recycling
burden
China Switzerland
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15Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
A
Life Cycle Perspective
»
How
to Integrate
Effects
of ICT Application?
Terminology from research on impactsof ICT on traffic:
Optimization effect:ICT optimizes traffic processes.
Substitution effect:ICT-based processes replace traffic(e.g. virtual meetings).
Induction effect:ICT creates traffic demand.
Generalize this terminology to otherapplication fields of ICT
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16Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
A
Life Cycle Perspective
»
Linked
Life Cycle Approach
Optimization
1
Substitution (demand
▼)Induction
(demand
▲)Optimization
2Optimization
3
Optimization
4
Second-order Effects of ICT
(Effects of ICT Application)
First-order Effects of ICT (ICT Hardware Life Cycle)
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17Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
Overview
1.
Some Facts about ICT
1.
A Life Cycle Perspective
2.
Towards a Conceptual Framework
3.
Conclusion
![Page 18: Prof. Dr. Lorenz M. Hilty Technology and Society Lab Empa ...€¦ · Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, lorenz.hilty@empa.ch 3 Overview 1. Some Facts](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051815/603b8ed47a11e24a85700e40/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
Towards
a Conceptual
Framework
ICT as part of the solution
Technology
Application
Societal change
Optimization effects
Substitution effects
Making more from less
Deep structural change toward a
dematerialized economy
3rdorder
effects
[systemic]
2ndorder
effects
[indirect]
1storder
effects
[direct]
enables
enables
Production
Use
End-of-life treatment
Life cycle of ICT hardware
ICT as part of the problem
Induction effects
Rebound effects
New critical infrastructure
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19Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
Towards
a Conceptual
Framework
ICT as part of the solution
Technology
Application
Societal change
Optimization effects
Substitution effects
Making more from less
Deep structural change toward a
dematerialized economy
3rdorder
effects
[systemic]
2ndorder
effects
[indirect]
1storder
effects
[direct]
enables
enables
Production
Use
End-of-life treatment
Life cycle of ICT hardware
ICT as part of the problem
Induction effects
Rebound effects
New critical infrastructure
![Page 20: Prof. Dr. Lorenz M. Hilty Technology and Society Lab Empa ...€¦ · Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, lorenz.hilty@empa.ch 3 Overview 1. Some Facts](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051815/603b8ed47a11e24a85700e40/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
Towards
a Conceptual
Framework »
Structural
Change
yesterday (before the industrial
revolution)
today
Resource
flow per capita
Labour demandper capita
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21Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
Towards
a Conceptual
Framework »
Structural
Change
Source: Marina Fischer-Kowalski, R‘09 Congress and World Resources Forum Davos 2009, www.worldresourcesforum.org
Metabolic
rates
of agrarian
vs. industrial
societies
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22Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
Towards
a Conceptual
Framework »
Structural
Change
Labourper capita
Information flow per capita
Resource
flowper capita
tomorrow
yesterday
today ?
SustainableInformation
Society
UnsustainableInformation
Society
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23Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
Towards
a Conceptual
Framework »
Structural
Change »
Statistics
Global trend in the use ofMetal oresFossile energy carriersBiomassNon-metallic minerals
Source: OECD, Measuring Material Flows and Resource Productivity. Synthesis Report, 2008, p. 37
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24Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
Towards
a Conceptual
Framework »
Structural
Change »
Statistics
Global materials
and energy
use
per capita
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25Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
Towards
a Conceptual
Framework »
Rebound Effects
ICT as part of the solution
Technology
Application
Societal change
Optimization effects
Substitution effects
Making more from less
Deep structural change toward a
dematerialized economy
3rdorder
effects
[systemic]
2ndorder
effects
[indirect]
1storder
effects
[direct]
enables
enables
Production
Use
End-of-life treatment
Life cycle of ICT hardware
ICT as part of the problem
Induction effects
Rebound effects
New critical infrastructure
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26Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
Towards
a Conceptual
Framework »
Rebound Effects
Resource
efficiency
does
not
always
lead
to less
resource
use(also known
as the
Jeavons
paradox)
activity 12
3
45 6
7
… n
cost of
activity [€]
resource intensityof activity [t/€]
incometotal resource use for the set of
activities 1…n [t]
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27Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
Towards
a Conceptual
Framework »
Rebound Effects
Resource
efficiency
does
not
always
lead
to less
resource
use(also known
as the
Jevons
paradox)
activity 1 23
45 6
7
… n
cost of
activity [€]
resource intensityof activity [t/€]
incometotal resource use for the set of
activities 1…n [t]
case 1: less resource intensive and not cheaper
no rebound effect
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28Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
Towards
a Conceptual
Framework »
Rebound Effects
Resource
efficiency
does
not
always
lead
to less
resource
use(also known
as the
Jevons
paradox)
activity 12
3
45 6
7
… n
cost of
activity [€]
resource intensityof activity [t/€]
incometotal resource use for the set of
activities 1…n [t]
case 2: price of activity decreases proportionalto resource demand (constant resource intensity)
direct rebound effect: saved money spent for more of activity 2OR
indirect rebound effect: saved money spent for any other activity
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29Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
Towards
a Conceptual
Framework »
Rebound Effects
Resource
efficiency
does
not
always
lead
to less
resource
use(also known
as the
Jevons
paradox)
activity 12
3
4 45 6
7
… n
cost of
activity [€]
resource intensityof activity [t/€]
incometotal resource use for the set of
activities 1…n [t]
if more money is spent for an activity with a relatively low resourceintensity, total resource use will decrase.
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30Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
Towards
a Conceptual
Framework »
Rebound Effects
This works at any level (household or whole economy, in the lattercase replace income by GDP)The time needed to consume an activity should be integrated in itscost (opportunity cost of time).
Result:The safest way to reduce total resource use is not to increase resource efficiency, but to bring people to spend more time or money on relatively resource efficient activities, e.g. by making these more attractive, more useful (but not cheaper).
This is the most viable way to create sustainable ICT applications.
Example:
Car sharing companies boomed after Web-based booking was introduced – this just made car-sharing more attractive.
In addition to Material Flow Analysis (MFA), we need Payment Flow Analysis (PFA) to identify sustainable applications of ICT.
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31Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
Towards
a Conceptual
Framework
ICT as part of the solution
Technology
Application
Societal change
Optimization effects
Substitution effects
Making more from less
Deep structural change toward a
dematerialized economy
3rdorder
effects
[systemic]
2ndorder
effects
[indirect]
1storder
effects
[direct]
enables
enables
Production
Use
End-of-life treatment
Life cycle of ICT hardware
ICT as part of the problem
Induction effects
Rebound effects
New critical infrastructure
![Page 32: Prof. Dr. Lorenz M. Hilty Technology and Society Lab Empa ...€¦ · Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, lorenz.hilty@empa.ch 3 Overview 1. Some Facts](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051815/603b8ed47a11e24a85700e40/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
32Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]
Conclusions
We need more than a low-carbon economy: a deep structuralchange towards a dematerialized information society
We need ICT as an enabling technology for this transition.
The transition will not happen by itself – we need policies thatmaximize the positive and minimize the negative effects of ICT, accounting for all types of ICT effects (including rebound effects.).
Techno-optimism
Techno-pessimismTechno-realism
Thank
you
for
your
ISBN: 978-3-8370-1970-4http://www.amazon.de/dp/3837019705