Production Economics of AllanblackiaIf Allanblackia is a cash cow?

How big is the cow How much cash does the cow give you

What are our assumptions? seedlings/cuttings are available farm-gate price is $0.15 per kilo of seeds one village/community will produce viable quantity cuttings take 4 years to fruit seedlings take 12 years to fruit adequate labour for processing there will be sufficient males in the landscape average yield of 30 fruit per tree three AB fruit give 1 kg of seeds no negative aspects of AB (alternate pest host) no significant input costs (pests, fertiliser) no punitive taxes or barriers no restrictive policies

Values of average total seed weight per fruit per tree are shown for 57 trees, with measurements based on 40 fruit per tree. Values varied widely between trees, and differences were statistically significant. Source: ICRAF CameroonTree-to-tree variation in seed weight per fruit for A. floribunda trees sampled at the Yalpenda site, Cameroon

The farm or production system, with :

Workforce and labour organisation during the yearThe farm level and the system approach

The cultivated plot and the system approachPerennial crops and the case of cacao tree

Olympe and the cropping system level

Variables definitions(Information database)

Croppinglndlivestockraising systemsAll taxesandunits

Olympe : the farm level (allocation of surfaces)All taxesandunitsSTEP 1Definitionsfor UNITSand TAXES

Variables definitions(Information database)

STEP 2

Definitions for

NAMES of VARIABLES

UNIT PRICESPER type of INCOME and COST.

AVAILABLE WORKING PERIODS during the year

Croppingandlivestockraising systems

STEP 3 Definitions for cycles, q/ha NECESARY working timeFARM :C & L systems and areasSTEP 4 cropping S, livestock S areas

The region level and the system approachFarming systemsAAABB

Olympe functions : external effects

Variables definitions(Information database)

Croppingandlivestockraising systems

All taxesandunitsFARM :C & L systems and areasTypologiesREGION :Farm types Global analysisPrices and yields variations

Clove cultivationWhat are existing enterprises and alternatives to AB

Eucalyptus over tea

Bananas and maize

Black peppers and gliricidia

Economies of scale

No. trees per haSurvival %Number survivingIncome per tree ($)Total income per ha ($)Year 16257546900Year 24699042200Year 34229540000Year 44001004000.40160Year 54001004000.60240Year 64001004000.85340Year 74001004001.00400Year 84001004001.00400Year 94001004001.00400Year 104001004001.00400

If you want 10 million trees at year 4 then plant 15.6 million in year 1(= 25,000 ha equivalents)(but may be spread over 200,000 ha and 80,000 households)

Cost of establishmentYear 1 = $3,510,000Year 2 = $3,160,000Year 3 = $3,000,000

Total = $9,670,000

To generate a 40,000 t oil per annum business

= $30 million per annum

No. trees per haSurvival %Number survivingIncome per tree ($)Total income per ha ($)Year 1625754690.30$141Year 2469904220.30$126Year 3422954000.30$120Year 44001004000.40160Year 54001004000.60240Year 64001004000.85340Year 74001004001.00400Year 84001004001.00400Year 94001004001.00400Year 104001004001.00400

Village Nurseries Key to success of the venture, not well coordinated at present Need technical, financial and social aspects (partnership, joint accountability) Need different approaches (community, individual, associations) Need to document germplasm being used (origin, type, quantity) Need to maintain register of nurseries and activities Need to be clear on buy-back, research involvement, etc Need awareness raising of what use seedlings for (e.g. grafting)

Nursery business

Village Nurseries

Vegetative Propagation

$10 is compensation not income

Risks versus ReturnsR ISKSRETURNS

Chart2

6.5

3

12

0.4

2.5

US$

Average income per working day on crop

Sheet1

Income estimates of rural farmers with average investment / technology inputs. (All numbers in Euro)

CropCountryInputsLabourSales valueNett income in money terms / haNet income per day labourRemarksData source

Cost of seedsFertilizerPesticidesPlanting / seedingMaintenanceharvesting

MaizeTz7.53.51210822110.37No valuation for animal feed revenueFidelis Rutatina

TeaTz1070261.5261.53.27No provision for plant renewal costs, no provision for yield lost due to pruning (once every four years)Fidelis Rutatina

CocoaGh4012284323929.80No provisions for income gap during planting of trees. No provision for buying of seedlings. Historically, cocoa prices are currently high.Tony Simons

suger cane

cassava

bannanas

palm oil

others

others

AllanblackiaTz / Gh103068968917.23No provision for planting period, grafted trees

Currency:1300 TSCH = 1.3 US$ = Euro 1

13000 Cedis = 1.3 US$ = 1 Euro

R&ED:10 bags of 90 kg. Value of 562.000 Cedis / bag

R&ED:harvesting, including drying and selling.

R&ED:1 day equals 10 h work or 15000 Cedis value.

R&ED:or TSHS 100.000 for hired labour)

R&ED:or TSHS 14.00 for hired labour.

R&ED:including drying and selling

R&ED:includes weeding and general field maintenance

R&ED:Based on 560 trees per ha, each producing 16 kg of seeds

Sheet2

Cocoa280

Palmoil154

Allanblackia400

Maize11

Tea200

Cocoa6.5

Palmoil3

Allanblackia12

Maize0.4

Tea2.5

200610

200715

200820

200925

201035

201170

2012115

2013160

2014225

2015325

Sheet2

US$

Average annual income (over a period of 20 years) of 1 ha with crop

Sheet3

US$

Average income per working day on crop

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

US$

Average (Q1) income development for typical focal persons