Production Economics of Allanblackia If Allanblackia is a cash cow? - How big is the cow - How much...

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Transcript of Production Economics of Allanblackia If Allanblackia is a cash cow? - How big is the cow - How much...

  • Production Economics of AllanblackiaIf Allanblackia is a cash cow?

    How big is the cow How much cash does the cow give you

  • What are our assumptions? seedlings/cuttings are available farm-gate price is $0.15 per kilo of seeds one village/community will produce viable quantity cuttings take 4 years to fruit seedlings take 12 years to fruit adequate labour for processing there will be sufficient males in the landscape average yield of 30 fruit per tree three AB fruit give 1 kg of seeds no negative aspects of AB (alternate pest host) no significant input costs (pests, fertiliser) no punitive taxes or barriers no restrictive policies

  • Values of average total seed weight per fruit per tree are shown for 57 trees, with measurements based on 40 fruit per tree. Values varied widely between trees, and differences were statistically significant. Source: ICRAF CameroonTree-to-tree variation in seed weight per fruit for A. floribunda trees sampled at the Yalpenda site, Cameroon

  • The farm or production system, with :

    Workforce and labour organisation during the yearThe farm level and the system approach

  • The cultivated plot and the system approachPerennial crops and the case of cacao tree

  • Olympe and the cropping system level

    Variables definitions(Information database)

    Croppinglndlivestockraising systemsAll taxesandunits

  • Olympe : the farm level (allocation of surfaces)All taxesandunitsSTEP 1Definitionsfor UNITSand TAXES

    Variables definitions(Information database)

    STEP 2

    Definitions for

    NAMES of VARIABLES

    UNIT PRICESPER type of INCOME and COST.

    AVAILABLE WORKING PERIODS during the year

    Croppingandlivestockraising systems

    STEP 3 Definitions for cycles, q/ha NECESARY working timeFARM :C & L systems and areasSTEP 4 cropping S, livestock S areas

  • The region level and the system approachFarming systemsAAABB

  • Olympe functions : external effects

    Variables definitions(Information database)

    Croppingandlivestockraising systems

    All taxesandunitsFARM :C & L systems and areasTypologiesREGION :Farm types Global analysisPrices and yields variations

  • Clove cultivationWhat are existing enterprises and alternatives to AB

  • Eucalyptus over tea

  • Bananas and maize

  • Black peppers and gliricidia

  • Economies of scale

  • No. trees per haSurvival %Number survivingIncome per tree ($)Total income per ha ($)Year 16257546900Year 24699042200Year 34229540000Year 44001004000.40160Year 54001004000.60240Year 64001004000.85340Year 74001004001.00400Year 84001004001.00400Year 94001004001.00400Year 104001004001.00400

  • If you want 10 million trees at year 4 then plant 15.6 million in year 1(= 25,000 ha equivalents)(but may be spread over 200,000 ha and 80,000 households)

    Cost of establishmentYear 1 = $3,510,000Year 2 = $3,160,000Year 3 = $3,000,000

    Total = $9,670,000

    To generate a 40,000 t oil per annum business

    = $30 million per annum

    No. trees per haSurvival %Number survivingIncome per tree ($)Total income per ha ($)Year 1625754690.30$141Year 2469904220.30$126Year 3422954000.30$120Year 44001004000.40160Year 54001004000.60240Year 64001004000.85340Year 74001004001.00400Year 84001004001.00400Year 94001004001.00400Year 104001004001.00400

  • Village Nurseries Key to success of the venture, not well coordinated at present Need technical, financial and social aspects (partnership, joint accountability) Need different approaches (community, individual, associations) Need to document germplasm being used (origin, type, quantity) Need to maintain register of nurseries and activities Need to be clear on buy-back, research involvement, etc Need awareness raising of what use seedlings for (e.g. grafting)

  • Nursery business

  • Village Nurseries

  • Vegetative Propagation

    $10 is compensation not income

  • Risks versus ReturnsR ISKSRETURNS

  • Chart2

    6.5

    3

    12

    0.4

    2.5

    US$

    Average income per working day on crop

    Sheet1

    Income estimates of rural farmers with average investment / technology inputs. (All numbers in Euro)

    CropCountryInputsLabourSales valueNett income in money terms / haNet income per day labourRemarksData source

    Cost of seedsFertilizerPesticidesPlanting / seedingMaintenanceharvesting

    MaizeTz7.53.51210822110.37No valuation for animal feed revenueFidelis Rutatina

    TeaTz1070261.5261.53.27No provision for plant renewal costs, no provision for yield lost due to pruning (once every four years)Fidelis Rutatina

    CocoaGh4012284323929.80No provisions for income gap during planting of trees. No provision for buying of seedlings. Historically, cocoa prices are currently high.Tony Simons

    suger cane

    cassava

    bannanas

    palm oil

    others

    others

    AllanblackiaTz / Gh103068968917.23No provision for planting period, grafted trees

    Currency:1300 TSCH = 1.3 US$ = Euro 1

    13000 Cedis = 1.3 US$ = 1 Euro

    R&ED:10 bags of 90 kg. Value of 562.000 Cedis / bag

    R&ED:harvesting, including drying and selling.

    R&ED:1 day equals 10 h work or 15000 Cedis value.

    R&ED:or TSHS 100.000 for hired labour)

    R&ED:or TSHS 14.00 for hired labour.

    R&ED:including drying and selling

    R&ED:includes weeding and general field maintenance

    R&ED:Based on 560 trees per ha, each producing 16 kg of seeds

    Sheet2

    Cocoa280

    Palmoil154

    Allanblackia400

    Maize11

    Tea200

    Cocoa6.5

    Palmoil3

    Allanblackia12

    Maize0.4

    Tea2.5

    200610

    200715

    200820

    200925

    201035

    201170

    2012115

    2013160

    2014225

    2015325

    Sheet2

    US$

    Average annual income (over a period of 20 years) of 1 ha with crop

    Sheet3

    US$

    Average income per working day on crop

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

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    0

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    US$

    Average (Q1) income development for typical focal persons